NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Below 2927 level, expect profit booking up to 2907-2909 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2889-2891 zone by non-stop.
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 2728 level, it can zoom up to 2942 level by non-stop.
False signal is likely. Traders can expect bounce.
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 9166 level on down side.
Weekly Index Outlook
This is list of 10 strong futures:
WWIL, Renuka, APIL, India Info, ACC, Jindal Steel, Shree Cem, Edu Comp, IDEA & Balrampur.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
GDL, Aban, DLF, Punj Lloyd, HDIL, Yes Bank, Jindal Saw, Tulip, Omaxe & Patni Comp.
Nifty is in Up Trend.
Weekly Index Outlook
Sensex (9634.7)
Sensex started the week on an upbeat note with a 283-point rally, but it lost its way thereafter. All efforts to drum up an enthusiastic response to the forthcoming interim budget proved fruitless and the Sensex trudged along in an apathetic mood. This unresponsive attitude is probably good since there will then be lesser room for disappointment. FII activity was also muted. Volumes were nothing to write home about, in cash as well as the derivative segment. However, open interest moved higher past Rs 50,000 crore pointing towards revival in trading interest. High put call ratio points towards a circumspect stance being adopted by traders.
Sensex moved higher past the first target indicated last week to peak at 9725 on Tuesday. But it has been moving in a very tight range between 9300 and 9700 since then. This narrow move keeps the short-term up trend from the January 23 trough alive. Immediate resistance for the Sensex is around 9800. If this level is crossed there can be a foray in to the resistance band between 10,000 and 10,200.
The weekly Sensex close above the 50-day moving average is a positive. However, trend following indicators such as the oscillators are signalling that the index is losing momentum. The weekly momentum indicators are moving in neutral region, struggling to move in to the bullish zone. The implication is that investors need to stay watchful in the way ahead. These plodding moves of the Sensex have kept the wave counts unaltered. Sensex is forming a triangle since the last week of October and the E wave of this formation appears to be unfolding from January 23. According to this count, the current up-move faces hurdles at 9800 and then at the upper boundary of the triangle at 10,108. A close below 9000 will signal the end of this formation.
It is hard to envisage a blitzkrieg next week, given the tight range that the index is moving in currently. A rally past 9800 will take Sensex to 9976 or 10,240. Supports for the week would be at 9310 and then 9050. Short-term traders should desist from making fresh purchases on a decline below the second support.
Nifty (2948.3)Nifty recorded a peak at 2957 on Tuesday and then moved sideways in a narrow band. Key resistances for the short- term are at 2970 and then at 3030. The current up-trend could extend a little further but a cluster of resistances just ahead makes a sudden reversal quite likely in the week ahead. Breakout above 3030 will take Nifty to 3110. Conversely, inability to move past 3000 will signal impending weakness and a decline to 2870 and 2790. The medium- term outlook for the Nifty remains sideways between 2200 and 3200. Investors should desist from making fresh purchases as the index nears the upper boundary of this trading range. Key medium-term support is 2760.
Global Cues
Global markets could not make any progress last week. Disappointment over the vague contours of the bank rescue package and grim economic numbers from Europe kept the lid on equity prices.
European markets were the worst affected and the DJ Euro STOXX 50 index declined 5 per cent for the week. One disconcerting point about last week's trade is the decline of Dow Jones Industrial Average below 8000. The index has closed blow this level for four consecutive sessions and a fall to the November trough at 7450 seems inevitable now.
Close above 8450 is required to mitigate the negative short-term view.
One of the strongest performers last week was Russia's RTSI Index that rose almost 20 per cent.
Shanghai Composite was the other dazzler with 7 per cent rise.
Interest appears to be re-emerging in the brow-beaten parts of the BRIC four-some. —
Maruti Suzuki
It was a strong 8 per cent surge for Maruti Suzuki last week The stock moved close to our near-term target at Rs 636 before tottering slightly. This remains the trend-deciding level for the near-term. A downward reversal from here will pull the stock down to Rs 560 or Rs 586. Conversely, a break-out beyond Rs 636 will take the stock to Rs 673. The resistance at Rs 636 is very important from a medium-term perspective too. Penetration of this resistance would pull the stock higher to Rs 750. As we have been reiterating, the area around Rs 550 is a reliable long-term support and the stock could be building a base around this zone.
Infosys
Infosys reversed lower from an intra week peak at Rs 1,325. Ten-day rate of change oscillator has declined in to the bearish zone after prolonged negative divergence. But the stock has supports at Rs 1,220 and Rs 1,160. Reversal from either of these levels would be the cue for short-term investors to initiate fresh long positions. Break-out above Rs 1300 will pave the way for a surge to Rs 1,460. We retain the medium-term range between Rs 1,060 and Rs 1,400 for Infosys. The stock has strong medium-term resistance between Rs 1,400 and Rs 1,500 and the medium-term view will turn positive only if this zone is surpassed.
Tata Steel
Tata Steel recorded a minor up-tick in the weekly chart, thanks to the strong surge on Monday. But the short-term term trend deciding level of Rs 202 has not been crossed yet.
Traders ought to stay watchful over their long positions as long as the stock remains below this level. Subsequent resistances are at Rs 212 and then Rs 225. Supports for the week are at Rs 180 and then Rs 165.The medium-term trend in Tata Steel remains sideways. However, the formation of higher peaks and troughs since January 23 augurs well for the stock. Investors can make staggered purchases every time the stock nears Rs 150.
Reliance
Reliance Industries moved in line with our expectation last week to an intra-week peak at Rs 1,414 but was unable to penetrate this level.
As explained last week, the area around Rs 1,400 is a strong resistance for the short-term. If this area is crossed, the stock can move to Rs 1,500. However, daily momentum indicators are weak and short-term traders should desist from fresh short positions on a decline below Rs 1,280.
The medium-term view for the stock is neutral. Investors ought to exercise caution since it is nearing the upper band of its medium-term range between Rs 1,000 and Rs 1,500.
SBI
SBI launched in to a surprise up-move last week and closed with 7 per cent gain.
Immediate resistances for the stock are at Rs 1,205 and then Rs 1,245.
Short-term traders can book profit on reversal from either of these levels.
However, if the rally continues, the next target would be Rs 1,350.
Supports in the week ahead would be at Rs 1,140 and then Rs 1,100. We adhere to a neutral medium-term view for the stock.
ONGC
The strong spurt in ONGC on Monday made the stock rise beyond Rs 700. But the stock continues to grapple with the resistance at Rs 736.
As explained in our last column, we retain a cautious outlook as long as the stock remains below this level. Supports for the week would be at Rs 636 and then Rs 615.The medium-term view for ONGC stays negative.
A strong push past Rs 750 would make this view positive.
The resistances to watch over the next three months are at Rs 800 and then Rs 866. The long-term outlook will turn positive only on a close above the second resistance.
Nifty future at critical stageAfter weeks of being in the losing streak, the Nifty future managed an impressive turnaround, putting in a neat 3.75 gains on the table. While a bulk of the upsurge may have been helped by the squaring-off of short positions; that the week also saw fresh accumulation of Nifty futures suggests a turnaround in market sentiments too. The Nifty future now trails Nifty, which ended at 2948 points, by about six points only. That said, trading volumes continued to remain moderate at about Rs 31000 crore.
Recommendation follow-up
We had given three recommendations last week: 1) Shorting Nifty future with a stop at 2950, 2) Short straddle using 2800-strike for a maximum of two days and 3) Buying March 2500 put. All the three strategies would have ended in the negative.
Outlook
The Nifty future is at critical stage. Despite strong gains on Friday, when the Nifty future crossed its crucial resistance at 2950, albeit only intra-day, we continue to feel that Nifty future will encounter strong pressure going forward. That in spite of the strong show on Friday, Nifty future failed to close above 2950-level validates our view.
However, if Nifty future manages to close above 2950 convincingly, then it may face the next resistance at around 3050 first and then at 3250. On the other hand, if it fails to hold to the current levels and dips below 2875, then Nifty future may find a strong support at 2750.
Option monitorAmong the options, 2900 call and 2800 put shed open interest positions. Though 3000 call was very active, most of the accumulations were on the short side.
The Nifty 3100 call also witnessed short accumulations, indicating that Nifty could face strong pressure at higher levels. On other hand, there was significant accumulation of puts for strikes 2700, 2600 and 2500. Besides, the steady accumulation of options at Nifty March 2500 also suggests a downward bias for the market.
Volatility IndexIndia VIX or Volatility Index, which measures the immediate expected volatility, has weakened to 43.31 from the previous week's close of 50.65. However despite the fall, the volatility index managed to touch the 50-point mark many times over during intra-day trades. This suggests that some traders may still be sceptical about the current rally.
Recommendations
In the coming week, market may begin on a soft note. With expectations galore on the interim budget, the Nifty future may be subject to heightened volatility. The break-out however may set the direction for Nifty future for the ensuing weeks. Traders can consider setting a long straddle strategy. This can be initiated by buying 2900-strikes of call and puts (March), which ended last week at Rs 182.4 and Rs 142.15 respectively. While the profit in this strategy can be unlimited, the maximum loss may be limited to the premium paid. Note that this strategy can be kept open for a slightly longer period (say, more than a week). Traders with a penchant for higher risk can also consider buying Nifty March 2500 put.
FII trends
The cumulative FII positions as percentage of the total gross market position on the derivative segment as on February 12 was 33.43 per cent. The FIIs indulged in alternate bouts of buying and selling in the F&O segment. They now hold index futures worth about Rs 7,363 crore (about Rs 6,815 crore) and stock future worth about Rs 12,232 crore (about Rs 11,157 crore). Their index options jumped to about Rs 15,489 crore (about Rs 12,152 crore).
FII DATA
| FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| FII | 13-Feb-2009 | 1233.91 | 1247.06 | -13.15 |
| DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| DII | 13-Feb-2009 | 774.71 | 558.34 | +216.37 |
NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS FOR MONDAY 15TH FEB
 | 2948.35 | ( 1.91 %) | 55.30 |  |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Resistance | 2925.85 | 2958.65 | 2978.30 | |
| Support | 2873.40 | 2853.75 | 2820.95 | |
 | 9634.74 | ( 1.78 %) | 168.91 | | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Resistance | 9548.79 | 9631.76 | 9683.38 | ||
| Support | 9414.20 | 9362.58 | 9279.61 | ||
