NIFTY FUTURES (Intra-Day):
Rally may continue up to 5599 level for time being.
Support at 5559 & 5567 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 5527-5529 zone and thereafter expect a slide up to 5497-5499 zone by non-stop.
Buy if touches 5426-5428 zone. Stop Loss at 5396-5398 zone.
On Positive Side, cross above 5629-5631 zone can take it up to 5660-5662 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.
NIFTY FUTURES Weekly: (Valid up to 09.09.2010)
(Published on 06.09.2010)
Global Cues pointing towards upward start. Get prepared for panic selling too. Thereafter, it will start recover at the end of the week.
Upward Target at 5665.80. Stop Loss at 5289.10.
BANK NIFTY FUTURES Weekly: (Valid up to 09.09.2010)
(Published on 06.09.2010)
Global Cues pointing towards upward start. Get prepared for panic selling too. Thereafter, it will start recover at the end of the week.
Upward Target at 11356.95. Stop Loss at 10643.05.
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| *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Monday, September 06, 2010 4:04:10 PM | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
#1R1 stands for Resistance level 1 @1S1 stands for Support level 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| #2R2 stands for Resistance level 2 @2S2 stands for Support level 2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
#3R3 stands for Resistance level 3 @3S3 stands for Support level 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. |
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| • | Reliance Power and Reliance Natural Resources, said their respective shareholders have approved merger between the two entities, estimated to create a Rs. 500 bn entity. (BS) |
| • | Reliance Communications' plan to sell its telecoms tower business to GTL Infrastructure has fallen through, dealing a blow to the efforts of India's second largest cellular carrier to nearly halve its debt. (BS) |
| • | Indian Oil Corp shut a 120,000 barrel per day crude unit at its northern India refinery late on Sunday for 45 days to boost capacity 25%, its head of refineries B N Bankapur said. (BS) |
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| • | Direct tax collections shot up by 13.91% to Rs. 1.00 tn in the first five months of the 2010-11 financial year till August, the Finance Ministry said. As per data, corporate tax collections grew by 17.05% to Rs. 577.50 bn in April-August, 2010, from Rs. 493.39 bn in the corresponding five-month period a year ago. Meanwhile, personal income tax collection -- including securities transaction tax, residual fringe benefit tax and banking cash transactions tax rose by 9.68% per cent to Rs. 422.17 bn from Rs. 384.91 bn. (BS) |
| • | Germany's 10 biggest lenders, including Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG, may need about Euro 105 bn in fresh capital because of new regulation, the Association of German Banks said. (Bloomberg) |
| • | The leadership challenge to Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan risks postponing efforts to reduce the world's largest public debt, according to Fitch Ratings. "The key issue for the ratings is whether a government can be formed with the will and authority to draw up and implement a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy" Fitch said. (Bloomberg) |
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| Buy / Sell (Sep 06, 2010) | |||||||
| Buy | Sell | Net | |||||
| FII | 2750.18 | 1803.65 | +946.53 | ||||
| DII | 1816.24 | 1424.11 | +392.13 | ||||
| Aravali Securities BSE 512344 | |
| PETRONET LNG-BUY | |
Long-term LNG prices remain firm. Management said that though prices of long-term LNG contracts have marginally softened to 14-15% of JCC crude (from 16-17% during peak), LNG suppliers have been able to hold up prices by reducing production rather than cutting prices. Hence, the company is facing difficulty in tying up long-term contracts.
Spot volume to grow. During Sep '10, the company expects regasification of four spot cargoes (including one each for GSPC and GAIL). Further, it expects getting at least one spot cargo every month thereafter, for the next couple of quarters. Sharp jump in spot volume is due to: i) delay in RIL-KG D6 gas ramp up and ii) shutdown of ~6mcm/d gas from Panna-Mukta fields after an undersea pipeline leakage on 20 Jul '10.
Pipeline ramp up to support growth. PLNG targets LNG regas volumes of 8.3-8.4mmtpa in FY11 and 9.5-10mmtpa in FY12; incremental regas volumes would be consumed primarily by Pragati power plant (1mmtpa), and IOCL/BPCL refineries (1.1mmtpa). Volume growth would be supported by 4mcm/d increase in GAIL's pipeline capacity by Oct '10 and another 4mcm/d by Dec '10 owing to installation of two compressors. The expanded HVJ pipeline is expected to commission by Apr-May '11. Management reiterated that Kochi terminal would commission by 4QFY12.
Earnings, valuation; risks. We expect earnings CAGR of 22% over FY10-16e, backed by rise in both volume and re-gas charges. Regas charges would grow 5% every year.
Global LNG oversupply, relatively benign pricing terms including possible pooling of gas, easing pipeline constraints and no big new domestic gas supplies till '14 are positive.
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
