Thursday, June 25, 2009

Market Outlook for 25th June 2009

Intraday Calls 25th Jun 2009
BUY PTC-93 for a target 105 stop loss 90
BUY EDUcomp-3421 for a target 3556 stop loss 3400
BUY Jpassociates-213 for a target 225 stop loss 208
BUY CenturyTxt-392 for a target 415 stop loss 387
BUY Neyveli-128 for a target 139 stop loss 125 [positional]
BUY Welguj-209 for a target 216-219 stop loss 205
[yesterday's BTST] [Positional target 237+++ with sl 200]
BUY LICHousing-636 for a target 780 stop loss 610
 
NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS
SUPPORT
4283
4243
4206
4193
4156
RESISTANCE
4317
4328
4355
4367
4405
BUY TORRENT POWER,GIC HOUSING FIN,TRIVENI ENGG
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Indus Ind Bank, LIC Housing Finance, GDL, Tech M, IDBI, Edu Comp, Central bank, Aurobindo Ph, Gt Off Shore & Mphasis. 
And this is list of 10  Weak future:
Amtek Auto, CESC, Ge Ship, Nation Alum, Hdil, Sterlin Bio, Bharat Forge, Orchid Chem, Jet Airways & TCS. 
Nifty is in Down Trend.
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 4283 level, expect profit booking up to 4243-4245 zone and thereafter expect a slide up to 4206-4208 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 4315-4317 zone. Above this zone, rally may continue up to 4328 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 4353-4355 zone by non-stop.

Cross above 4365-4367 zone, can take it up to 4403-4405 zone and supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4193-4195 zone. Stop Loss at 4156-4158 zone.
 
Short-Term Investors: 
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop.
Already SL triggered. 3 closes below 4270 level, it can tumble up to 3990 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX: 
 Lower opening expected. Uptrend may continue. 
Short-Term Investors: 
 Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.
Already SL triggered. 
 
POSITIONAL TRADERS ONLY 
Buy TORRENT POWER (NSE Cash) 
Good for 1 Month Holding.
Ongoing rally may continue up to 1 day. Profit booking may start thereafter, and should continue up to 1 week. 

Good for 1 Month Holding.

Profit booking may start again, from 3 Months to 1 Year holding.
 
Buy GIC HOUSING FINA (NSE Cash) 
Good for 1 Month Holding.
Rally may continue up to 1 day, 1 week & 1 Month.

Profit booking will start within 3 months.

Thereafter rally should continue for 1 year.
 
Buy TRIVENI ENGG (NSE Cash) 
Good for 1 Month Holding.
Ongoing rally may continue up to 1 day. Profit booking may start thereafter, and should continue up to 1 week. 

Profit booking may start again, from 3 Months to 1 Year holding.
 
 
SPOT LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   4292.95 ( 1.08 %) 45.95       
  1 2 3
Resistance 4327.22 4361.48   4415.97  
Support 4238.47 4183.98 4149.72

BSE Sensex  14422.73 ( 0.69 %) 98.72     
  1 2 3
Resistance 14532.69 14642.66 14805.49
Support 14259.89 14097.06 13987.09
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 24-Jun-2009 1551.93 2343.78 -791.85
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 24-Jun-2009 1661.94 933.68 728.26
 
Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,299.86. Down by 23.05 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 900.94. Up by 5.84 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,792.34. Up by 27.42 points.
We did't get rupee update yet. 

Mphasis: Counting On The Strength Of HP
 
The company is maintaining its business mix ratio of 2:1:1 in its Applications, BPO and ITO services respectively. In the applications segment nearly 34% is the form application maintenance and the 66% is in the form of applications development.
In the ITO business the back office jobs are mainly done by MphasiS and the front office job is mainly in the hands of the EDS India Ltd.

The acquisition from the EDS has helped MphasiS to start its ITO space. After the acquisition of EDS by HP, a major chunk of the solutions based projects are bound to go for MphasiS and the projects coming from the HP might have a major competition from the EDS and HP India. 

The main drivers of consolidation in the sector are of two reasons like cost and the better solution. Company has expressed its view that the vendor consolidation may increase because of this bleak economic scenario and the companies are going to reap over the wallet sharing.

The company is increasing the sales expenses as the market is still uncertain. Thus the company is going to show a marginal increase in the SGA expenses.

The company may see the losses in the hedging because of forex forward covers that they have done in the past period.

From the BPO business the company is still facing high attrition rates and the absentees. But the company is trying to decrease its buffer levels in the BPO.

As of now the company is not going to have any layoffs and the salary cuts. The company is mainly focusing on the productivity plans and the planning cycles.

The currency exposure for the revenues are in the order of 8% to 9% in INR, 80% to 82% in USD and 8 to 10% from the other currencies.

Company expressed a view that the pipeline of the order book is healthy.

Cash in hand is $60mn and planning cycle for the Capex is larger because of the decrease in the hiring.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381