Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Market Outlook 13th Apr 2010



  Corporate News Headline
Tata Steel said its sales grew by 18% to 6.1 million tonnes in 2009-10 compared to 5.2 million tonnes in the previous fiscal. The production of saleable steel was higher by 20% at 6.4 million tonnes during the year against 5.3 million tones. (BS)
IVRCL Infrastructure and Projects bagged three orders worth Rs. 8.32 bn. The company is awarded an order worth Rs. 4.60 bn by Water Resources Department, Mumbai to be executed in 48 months. The second order worth Rs. 2.50 bn from Power Grid Corporation for supply and services contract for tower package in North Eastern Region. The completion period for this order is 30 months. (BS)
GAIL India said it is talking to Interoil Corp for a possible stake in the Canadian oil firm's proposed liquefied natural gas project in Papua New Guinea. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
India's industrial output grew slower-than-expected in February. Industrial output rose 15.1% in February from a year earlier, data showed on Monday. Capital goods rose 44.4% on year, while consumer durable goods output grew by an annual 29.9%. Manufacturing production rose 16.0% in February from a year earlier, while mining output was up 12.2% and power generation rose 6.7%. (BS)
US posted a budget deficit for a record 18th straight month in March, reflecting gains in government spending to bolster the economy. The excess of spending over revenue declined to USD 65.4 bn last month, compared with a shortfall of USD 191.6 bn in March 2009, according to Treasury Department figures released in Washington. (Bloomberg)
China's foreign-exchange reserves rose by the most in four months in March. Holdings jumped USD 22.5 bn last month, after gaining USD 9.4 bn in February and USD 16 bn in January, data posted on the central bank's Web site showed. (Bloomberg)

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong Stocks:
 Sintex, India Cement, TV-18, Ansal Infra, Nagarjuna Const, Andhra Bank, Orient Bank, Voltas Ltd, Pir Health & Purva. 
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks: 
Renuka, BEL, Hind Petro, Tech Mahindra, BPCL, Bajaj Hind, HCL Tech, Hind Uni Lvr, Maruti & Dr Reddy.
The daily trend of nifty is in Up trend  since 16th February



NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
 Above 5360 level, expect short covering up to 5381-5383 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5402-5404 zone by non-stop. 
Multiple Supports at 5331-5333 zone & at 5334 level. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 5326 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 5310-5312 zone by non-stop. 
Break below 5303-5305 zone, can create panic up to 5283-5285 zone by non-stop. 
On Positive Side, cross above 5409-5411 zone can take it up to 5429-5431 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. 
Up Side Target at 5429.95. 
Stop Loss at 5106.55.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
ZEEL FUTURES:
 Real Buying taken place on yesterday. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 307.80 level by non-stop. If Profit Booking starts, then expect slide up to 280.20 level by non-stop and have caution.
(5 Day's Holding) 
TV-18 FUTURES: 
Last 5 Day's Buying should be considered as a Speculative Buying. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 91.00 level by non-stop. If Profit Booking starts, then expect slide up to 78.80 level by non-stop and have caution.

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5300 PUT OPTION: 
Yesterday's rally was surprising. Speculative too. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 85.85 level by non-stop. If Profit Booking starts, then expect slide up to 46.65 level by non-stop and have caution.

LT 1550 PUT OPTION: 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise. Real Buying too. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 22.00 level by non-stop. If Profit Booking starts, then expect slide up to 8.40 level by non-stop and have caution.

Equity:
BOMDYEING (NSE Cash) 
Chief Executive of Britannia Industries Ltd Vinita Bali, may help out Bombay Dyeing's ailing textile Business. (Remember that, Nusli Wadia's Bombay Dyeing group, which now controls Britannia). Sales of Britannia

Industries Ltd have nearly doubled in the five years since Vinita Bali took over as chief executive of the biscuit and bread maker. 
Technicals: 
Real Buying taken place on yesterday. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 645.70 level by non-stop. If Profit Booking starts, then expect slide up to 585.20 level and have caution.

TATAMOTORS (NSE Cash) 
Ratan Tata-led India's largest commercial vehicle manufacturer Tata Motors is planning to sell part of its shareholding in Tata Cummins, a diesel engine joint venture company. 
Technicals: 
Yesterday's fall was a surprise. Speculative selling too. If fall continues, then slide may continue up to 715.35 level by non-stop. If short covering starts, then expect recovery up to 812.90 level by non-stop and have caution.


FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
FII12-Apr-2010 2433.132418.72 14.41

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
DII12-Apr-2010 881.841074.48 -192.64


INVESTMENT VIEW
Sayaji Hotels-Value Unlocking Could Create Tremendous Shareholder Value

Sayaji Hotels-Value Unlocking In Subsidiaries 
BSE 523710

 Sayaji Hotels has two wholly owned subsidiaries in Barbeque-Nation Hospitality Ltd. and M/s Malwa Hospitality Pvt. Ltd. Given the recent response of marketmen towards the Jubilant Foodworks IPO, unlocking of value through a listing of BBQ Nation should have a similar impact on Sayaji Hotels.

FUTURE PROSPECTS 
BARBEQUE NATION RESTAURANTS: The Company is operating their restaurant business by way of self and wholly owned subsidiary M/s Barbeque-Nation Hospitality Ltd. The Company has already started five (5) restaurants with commencement of operation at Bandra (Mumbai), Indira Nager (Bangalore), Hyderabad, Koramangala ( Bangalore) and Gurgaon (Haryana).


The company has also started Restaurants in different parts of the Country such as New Delhi-Janakpuri, T. Nagar Chennai, Chandigarh and Lucknow in the financial year 2007-08 and the restaurants at Thane (Mumbai), Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Baroda, J.P. Nagar (Bangalore), Pune, Kolkata, Amritsar and Jalandhar .

 

The company has also planned to open Restaurants at Coimbatore, Mysore, Trivandram, Cochin, Nagpur, Nasik, Vizag, Bhavaneshwer, Patna and other parts of India.

 

The response of all restaurants are exceptionally good. These outlets would give the company much needed visibility in the larger metros & add more value to the bottom line due to higher margin.

 

PUNE HOTEL PROJECT:

 

Pune Hotel is expected to see around 256 rooms in current position. The city currently registers the highest percentage of active developments among the larger metros cities in India.

 

INDORE AND BARODA HOTEL


The Indian hospitality industry is poised for tremendous growth. The demand-supply imbalance has prompted several national and international hotel companies to focus their energies towards expansion in India. The next few years will thus witness the opening of a number of hotels that will span the great competition and hospitality, in hospitality Industry.

Looking at the present market scenario and the reputation that Sayaji has built over the years which is further driven by the confidence that the city and the business community have reposed in the hotel and F & B Outlets. Indore is an emerging city in central India that serves as a gateway to a number of smaller towns and districts around it.


Taking into consideration the demand supply dynamics as well as the proposed improvement and development related initiatives in Indore, Directors are of the opinion that the hotel market is expected to get more organized in the years ahead and demand for quality accommodations at reasonable prices is thus likely to grow.


The Company is propose to renovate all the floors up to 6th floor with upgrading the facility in line with 7th Grande at Indore Hotel Property. This expansion is envisaged to cater to the demand of premium rooms at Indore Hotel.

The company has also plan itself to foray in the budget hotels segment in order to meet the demand and supply gap for the rooms by setting of 200 rooms hotel at Indore under its wholly owned subsidiary M/s Malwa Hospitality Pvt. Ltd. at Indore and other expansion plans.

Vadodara Hotel has seen an occupancy rate 90% and Hotel market in the city is in a favorable position currently, due to rising demand for accommodation and limited supply of quality rooms.

Vadodara's economy is driven by heavy industry, with large investments in power, manufacturing, chemical, pharmaceuticals, oil & gas, biotechnology and petrochemicals, and we can increase our occupancy to the maximum possible by meeting the demand for the quality rooms at competitive rates. However, industrial activity is reviving and if this pace continues, the city's hotel market would benefit, in the immediate to medium term.


OPPORTUNITIES

The Hotel industry has seen revival for the last couple of years and with the current economic policies, the industry is poised to grow further. The foreign traffic inflow has shown impressive growth over the last years. The proposed expansion will get the benefit of brand equity that the hotel has created for itself. The Company is expected to reap the benefits of industrial development and emergence of Indore as a business center.

OUTLOOK
Vision of the Company is to make investments in the further development of the hotels, additions in the services to customers and is faring to generate profits for the years to come. 
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381