Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Market Outlook 12th May 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks: 
Ansal Infra, Ashok Ley, Uniphos, Andhra Bank, Dish TV, UCO Bank, India Hotel, EKC, Tulip & Glaxo. 
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks
Renuka, Bajaj Hind, Balrampur Chini, ABB, Tech Mahindra, Aban Off shore, RCom, HDIL, Educomp & India Cement.
The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
 Below 5127-5129 zone, selling may continue up to 5112 level by non-stop. 
Hurdles at 5143 & 5149 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 5175-5177 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5201-5203 zone by non-stop. 
Sell if touches 5245-5247 zone. Stop Loss at 5270-5272 zone. 
On Negative Side, break below 5084-5086 zone, can create panic up to 5058-5060 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 
Down Side Target at 4812.00. 
Stop Loss at 5238.00.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
BAJAJHIND FUTURES 
Sugar production may exceed demand at 25 million tonne (MT) in the 2010-11 crop year starting October on the back of a 20 percentage points increase in sugarcane acreage, the country's largest sugar company Bajaj Hindustan said yesterday. 
"Sugar production may touch 25 million tonne in the 2010-11 crop year assuming good monsoon and about 20 per cent jump in acreage of sugarcane," Bajaj Hindusthan President (Investor Relations) Narayan Raman said in a conference call. 

Technicals: BAJAJHIND FUTURES 
Yesterday's fall was a surprise & Real Selling too. 
Bear's eyeing a Target of 99.80 level on down side. It looks that, target is too far on down side. 

On Positive Side, if Start Recovers then expect a jump up to 118.30 level by non-stop and have caution.

IDEA FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
GSM operators' association COAI today said the rising cost of spectrum could affect telecom growth plans, particularly in rural areas. 
"Growth could be hampered," said COAI Director-General Rajan S Mathews on the TRAI recommendations, which have suggested that telcos pay for 2G spectrum beyond the contracted amount of 6.2 Mhz, based on prices discovered through the 3G auction.  
Asked if the rising spectrum costs suggested by TRAI could lead to a reversal of the current low tariff regime, as operators would try to recover costs, he said, "Tariffs can't be arbitrarily increased."  

Call rates in India have touched their lowest levels, which are hitting the profitability of the mobile companies.  

Technicals: IDEA FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
Selling taken place in last 5 trading days. Do not worry about this fall & Bears manipulated. 
Bear's eyeing a Target of 52.95 level on down side. It looks that, it is too far on down side. 
On Positive Side, if Start Recovers then expect a jump up to 65.35 level by non-stop. Huge risk involved too.



OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged. 
Bull's eyeing a Target of 184.70 level on upper side. It looks that, target is too far on upper side. 

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 95.00 level and have caution.

TATASTEEL 580 PUT OPTION 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged. 
Bull's eyeing a Target of 39.00 level on upper side. It looks that, target is too far on upper side. 
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 11.00 level and have caution. Huge risk involved.

Equity:
NFL (NSE Cash) 
The fertiliser industry, the key beneficiary of the government's gas allocation policy, sees a smooth flow of natural gas for urea production following the RIL-RNRL verdict, boosting investment and reducing reliance on imported gas.  
One of the companies that will benefit directly from Friday's verdict is National Fertilizer's Vijaipur I and II plants. 
These are all expansion units or ones that are in the process of switching to gas from costly naphtha and stand to benefit once more gas becomes available.

Technicals: NFL (NSE Cash) 
Yesterday's rally on expected lines. Real Buying too. 
Bull's eyeing a Target of 117.00 level on upper side. It looks that, uptrend may be limited from current levels and have caution. 
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 100.00 level and have caution. Huge risk involved.

RCF (NSE Cash) 
RCF's Thal and Trombay plants also stand to gain.

Technicals: RCF (NSE Cash) 
Yesterday's rally on expected lines. Real Buying too. 
Bull's eyeing a Target of 86.30 level on upper side. It looks that, uptrend may be limited from current levels and have caution.  

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 79.55 level and have caution.

SPOT/CASH INDEX LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   5136.15 ( -1.11 %) -57.45       
 1 23
Resistance 5186.405236.65   5266.60  
Support 5106.205076.25 5026.00

BSE Sensex 17141.53 ( -1.09 %) -189.02      
 1 23
Resistance 17312.3017483.08 17587.00
Support 17037.6016933.68 16762.90

  Corporate News Headline
IVRCL has bagged orders worth Rs. 8.23 bn. This includes an order for construction of automotive test tracks at NATRAX - Pithampur and GARC - Chennai from the National Automotive Testing and R&D Infrastructure Project, worth Rs. 5.26 bn. (BS)
Hindalco Industries Ltd net more than doubled at Rs. 6.64 bn versus Rs. 2.69 bn reported in the quarter ended March 31, 2010. Net sales have also increased from Rs. 37.17 bn reported in the corresponding period last fiscal to Rs. 53.58 bn. (BS)
Ranbaxy Laboratories reported a consolidated profit of Rs. 9.61 bn for the quarter ended March 31, 2010, the highest ever for any three-month period, on the back of exclusive marketing rights for one of its drugs in the US. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
TRAI has proposed that the licence fee paid by operators should be reduced in the next four years to a uniform 6% of adjusted gross revenue from the current 6%-10%. (BS)
UK factory production surged in March, the biggest jump since 2002 as the weakness of the pound stoked exports from metals to cars. Manufacturing output rose 2.3% from February, the Office for National Statistics said in London. (Bloomberg)
Inventories at US wholesalers rose for a third month in March, and sales climbed even more, a signal companies will need to step up orders to try to meet demand. The 0.4% gain in the value of stockpiles followed a 0.6% increase the prior month, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Sales gained 2.4%, the most since November. (Bloomberg)

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
FII11-May-2010 2452.82432.61 20.19
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDate Buy ValueSell Value Net Value
DII 11-May-2010988.14 965.6522.49

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381