Thursday, November 25, 2010

Market Outlook 25th Nov 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks: 
Dish TV, S Kumars, TVS Motors, Lupin, ABG Shipping, Dr Reddy, Crompton Greaves, M&M, UCO Bank & Bajaj Auto. And this is list of 10 Weak stocks
Orbit Corp, LIC Housing, Unitech, HDIL, Jindal SWHL, OnMobile, Rcom, Ibrealest, Finan Tech & FSL.
The daily trend of nifty is in Down trend 

  • Supp / Resis SPOT/CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 5950.406035.05 6093.45
Support 5807.355748.95 5664.30
Sensex Resistance 19738.31 20016.76 20197.96
Support 19278.66 19097.46 18819.01

Scripts to watch today AxisBank, Biocon, Cairn, Hindalco, ICICIBank, LT, ONGC, PNB, Ranbaxy, Reliance, Sail, SBI, Sterlite, TataPower, TCS, Tisco, Wipro

Global Cues:Stocks rallied, driving the MSCI World Index up from a five-week low, after U.S. jobless claims declined to the fewest since 2008 and German business confidence improved. Yields on Treasuries and Irish bonds increased and oil surged. 

 Market Outlook
 
 

Indian markets is likely to open with positive bias tracking firm cues from global markets as strong US labour and consumer spending data helped to boost investor's sentiment. Thereafter, Nifty is likely to face stiff Iresistance near 5,900 level and sell off could be witnessed from this level. However, sustaining above 5,900 level will lead to Nifty 5,944-5,971 level. Immediate support for Nifty comes at 5,825 and break below may drag to Nifty 5,740 level on the downside. The market is expected to remain volatile in view of expiry of derivative contracts due on today.

In the derivatives segment, the focus has now shifted to the December series. There was significant short accumulation was witnessed in OTM Call options. On the other hand the puts buying was seen in 5,700 and 5,800 strikes put. On the sectoral front, the banking sector is a mixed picture with some rollover to the December series in the counters of ICICI Bank , HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank. In the auto sector, M&M and Tata Motors have seen subdued rollover. The FMCG sector has seen positive rollover in HLL and ITC . The metal sector has seen good rollover in the counters, like Tata Steel and Sesa Goa , whereas Sterlite has seen lower rollover.

 
 
    Tip for the day
 
 

MSK PROJECT (BUY)

  • RSI is at 46 neutral territory showing positive crossover indicating uptrend.
  • Stochastic has also just entered into neutral territory moving upward suggesting further upside.
  • MACD is likely to show bullish crossover.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

127.30

BUY

129/132/135

 123

115/140

LUPIN (BUY)

  • Stock new candlestice made above 34 Day EWMA and expecting to rise further.
  • RSI is showing a reversal trend after correction.
  • MACD is likely to show positive divergence.
  • Stochastic is at 55 levels and likely to give buy crossover.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

486.80

BUY

491/498/505

476

460/510

LIC HOUSING FINANCE (SELL)

  • RSI is at 26 showing negative crossover indicating correction.
  • MACD showing negative divergence.
  • Stochastic is trading in oversold territory showing negative crossover.
  • CMPBuy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

    1070.20

    SELL

    1060/1045/1030

    1090

    1000/1150

    IRB INFRA(SELL)

    • RSI is at 33 neutral territory showing negative crossover.
    • MACD is showing negative divergence.
    • Stochastic is hovering in neutral territory showing negative crossover suggesting downside.
    CMP Buy/SellTarget Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance

    222.90

    SELL

    220/215/210

    228

    210/230

    Derivatives EOD report on 

    SPOT/CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY TRADING
    Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
    ABG Shipyard Ltd. NSE 446.50 461.80 430.65 477.10 414.80 492.95 399.50
    Bajaj Auto Ltd. NSE 1611.15 1650.75 1585.80 1690.35 1560.45 1715.70 1520.85
    Bajaj Electricals Ltd. NSE 249.80 261.13 241.08 272.47 232.37 281.18 221.03
    Bajaj Finance Ltd. NSE 758.55 770.40 750.85 782.25 743.15 789.95 731.30
    Bajaj Hindustan Ltd. NSE 116.05 119.20 113.65 122.35 111.25 124.75 108.10
    Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd. NSE 875.65 895.57 865.12 915.48 854.58 926.02 834.67
    Bank of Baroda NSE 928.05 966.85 895.45 1005.65 862.85 1038.25 824.05
    Bank of India NSE 448.65 477.45 423.85 506.25 399.05 531.05 370.25
    Dish TV India Ltd. NSE 68.95 72.30 66.80 75.65 64.65 77.80 61.30
    Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. NSE 918.05 968.03 888.08 1018.02 858.12 1047.98 808.13
    Finolex Cables Ltd. NSE 56.55 57.43 55.88 58.32 55.22 58.98 54.33
    Finolex Industries Ltd. NSE 104.15 107.53 101.63 110.92 99.12 113.43 95.73
    Firstsource Solutions Ltd. NSE 22.55 23.17 22.12 23.78 21.68 24.22 21.07
    Hindalco Industries Ltd. NSE 207.60 212.77 204.32 217.93 201.03 221.22 195.87
    Hindustan Construction Company Ltd. NSE 55.45 57.30 54.25 59.15 53.05 60.35 51.20
    Hindustan Copper Ltd. NSE 340.80 352.03 332.53 363.27 324.27 371.53 313.03
    Hindustan Motors Ltd. NSE 27.20 28.25 26.40 29.30 25.60 30.10 24.55
    Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd. NSE 224.05 235.52 216.57 246.98 209.08 254.47 197.62
    Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. NSE 433.70 450.47 423.47 467.23 413.23 477.47 396.47
    Hindustan Unilever Ltd. NSE 299.80 302.17 297.77 304.53 295.73 306.57 293.37
    Hindustan Zinc Ltd. NSE 1158.50 1180.55 1143.80 1202.60 1129.10 1217.30 1107.05
    Jindal Cotex Ltd. NSE 138.20 142.45 135.50 146.70 132.80 149.40 128.55
    Jindal Drilling & Industries Ltd. NSE 511.55 520.57 505.32 529.58 499.08 535.82 490.07
    Jindal Photo Ltd. NSE 204.35 211.57 198.57 218.78 192.78 224.57 185.57
    Jindal Poly Films Ltd. NSE 493.90 511.07 480.92 528.23 467.93 541.22 450.77
    Jindal Saw Ltd. NSE 194.75 200.82 191.02 206.88 187.28 210.62 181.22
    Jindal South West Holdings Ltd. NSE 1593.00 1651.67 1554.67 1710.33 1516.33 1748.67 1457.67
    Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. NSE 643.60 653.87 635.47 664.13 627.33 672.27 617.07
    LIC Housing Finance Ltd. NSE 1070.20 1245.00 963.25 1419.80 856.30 1526.75 681.50
    Lupin Ltd. NSE 486.80 494.13 480.23 501.47 473.67 508.03 466.33
    Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd. NSE 55.65 57.10 54.60 58.55 53.55 59.60 52.10
    Maharashtra Seamless Ltd. NSE 398.15 405.10 391.10 412.05 384.05 419.10 377.10
    Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. NSE 784.65 799.02 769.12 813.38 753.58 828.92 739.22
    NSE Index NSE 5865.75 5950.40 5807.35 6035.05 5748.95 6093.45 5664.30
    OnMobile Global Ltd. NSE 265.45 271.58 260.68 277.72 255.92 282.48 249.78
    Orbit Corporation Ltd. NSE 87.55 93.67 83.72 99.78 79.88 103.62 73.77
    Reliance Capital Ltd. NSE 676.00 692.43 664.83 708.87 653.67 720.03 637.23
    Reliance Communications Ltd. NSE 143.65 147.55 140.55 151.45 137.45 154.55 133.55
    Reliance Gold Exchange Traded Fund NSE 1935.80 1944.02 1922.57 1952.23 1909.33 1965.47 1901.12
    Reliance Industrial InfraStructure Ltd. NSE 765.70 787.67 751.07 809.63 736.43 824.27 714.47
    Reliance Industries Ltd. NSE 996.05 1013.88 982.13 1031.72 968.22 1045.63 950.38
    Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 933.20 948.42 922.97 963.63 912.73 973.87 897.52
    Reliance Media Works Ltd. NSE 231.60 239.45 226.70 247.30 221.80 252.20 213.95
    Reliance Power Ltd. NSE 168.05 172.00 165.60 175.95 163.15 178.40 159.20
    S Kumars Nationwide Ltd. NSE 89.30 95.00 85.40 100.70 81.50 104.60 75.80
    TVS Electronics Ltd. NSE 29.35 30.28 28.73 31.22 28.12 31.83 27.18
    TVS Motor Company Ltd. NSE 83.90 87.52 78.92 91.13 73.93 96.12 70.32
    UCO Bank NSE 141.80 148.87 136.87 155.93 131.93 160.87 124.87
    Unitech Ltd. NSE 67.10 68.85 65.30 70.60 63.50 72.40 61.75
       *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Wednesday, November 24, 2010 4:04:43 PM
        #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
        #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
        #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
        
        The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 

     US markets
     
     US markets managed to close in green following better than expected consumer sentiment index reading and a sharp decline in jobless claim. Retail stocks jumped after the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index's rose to 71.6 in November, up from 67.7 last month, beating expectations. Adding to optimism, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell by 34,000 to 4,07,000 during the week ended November 20, the lowest figure since 2008. Market ignored a worse than expected new homes sales and durable goods. US new home sales showed an 8.1% drop to an annual rate of 2,83,000 in October from the revised September rate of 3,08,000. Meanwhile, orders for durable goods fell by 3.3% in October following an upwardly revised 5.0% increase in September.  
     
        European markets
     
     European markets rebounded from a six-week low following positive economic data from Germany and after Ireland's government unveiled a four-year deficit-cutting plan. The markets got a major uplift from an unexpectedly strong reading for the Ifo Institute's German business-climate index. The index posted an unexpected rise to 109.3 in November from 107.6 in October, while economists had expected it to remain flat. Further adding to positive sentiments, embattled Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen detailed a Euro 15 billion (USD 20 billion) worth of tax hikes and spending cuts designed to slash Ireland's budget deficit over the next four years as the government negotiates a rescue package with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.  
     
        Indian markets (Prev Day)
     
     The domestic bourses replicated the previous session's extreme volatility and moved across the baseline during the session. The market started off in an upbeat note as the benchmark indices were seen opening above the neutral line despite of weak global cues. Most of the Asian bourses traded negative as the dollar touched a two-month high against the euro after North Korea attacked a South Korean island and Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut Ireland's credit rating. Meanwhile, the Japanese market plunged as concern grew that Europe's debt crisis will slow the pace of global economic recovery. Markets traded in a narrow range on the higher side after the positive start and the gains were held on till the final hour of trading despite the benchmarks touching the neutral line for a couple of times. The last one hour witnessed substantial sell-offs, especially in the Banking and Realty space. Finally the market took support near yesterday''s lowest point and recovered mildly towards the end, though carrying significant losses. In the sectorial front, the Banking and Realty space took the most hammering and declined by 2.94% and 2.88% respectively. The IT and PSu sectors also contributed to the market plunge by 1.84% and 1.06% respectively. However, the FMCG space showed relative strength and gained by 0.24%. Both the Nifty and Sensex showed extreme volatility, with the benchmark Sensex witnessing an intraday swing of around 600 points. The NSE Nifty closed below the 5,900 mark, while the BSE Sensex closed below the 19,500 level.  
     
    IndexLatest1 D Chg(%)YTD(%)
    NSE Index (24 Nov 2010) 5865.75 -1.16 12.78
    Sensex (24 Nov 2010) 19459.85 -1.18 11.42
    Dow Jones Ind. .. (24 Nov 2010) 11187.28 1.37 7.28
    Nasdaq Composit.. (24 Nov 2010) 2543.12 1.93 12.07
    Hang Seng (24 Nov 2010) 23023.86 0.56 5.26
    Straits Times (24 Nov 2010) 3137.01 0.34 8.26
    FTSE 100 (24 Nov 2010) 5657.10 1.36 4.51
    CAC 40 (24 Nov 2010) 3747.61 0.62 -4.79
    SectorsClose1D Chg(%)
    BSE IT 5937.27 -1.08
    BSEPSU 9403.92 -1.87
    OILGAS 10148.89 -0.58
    Advance Decline RatioValue(in Cr.)Index
    0.20 874.62 SENSEX
    0.19 6608.67 NIFTY
       SENSEX    NIFTY
    Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
    Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 784.25 3.23 45.12
    Bharti Airtel Ltd. 331.65 0.76 0.87
    Tata Steel Ltd. 615.35 0.54 -0.36
    Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
    Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 784.65 2.95 45.19
    Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. 1781.25 1.20 55.35
    Bharti Airtel Ltd. 331.80 0.81 0.62
    Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
    State Bank of India 2854.10 -3.34 25.76
    DLF Ltd. 305.35 -3.00 -15.45
    Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 2195.75 -2.74 -8.74
    Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
    DLF Ltd. 304.05 -3.66 -15.82
    State Bank of India 2851.00 -3.47 25.65
    Punjab National Bank 1265.80 -3.03 39.68
    Top

    Most Active Stocks by value (in Cr)

    BSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
    SBI 2952.60 -3.34 266.73 915684
    Tata Steel 612.05 0.54 89.27 1441923
    ICICI Bank 1156.65 -2.73 77.94 680078
    Tata Motors 1213.65 0.32 65.99 532739
    RIL 994.90 -0.08 53.97 536946
     
    NSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
    SBI 2953.40 -3.47 1011.99 3467202
    ICICI Bank 1156.95 -2.75 564.39 4914885
    Tata Motors 1213.50 0.44 508.11 4096644
    RIL 995.60 0.05 453.37 4503970
    Tata Steel 612.15 0.73 394.25 6368751
     
    Strike Price Value Price %Chg
       Most Active Calls by Contract Value (in Cr)
    NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 6000.00 2212236.24 4.65 337.63
    NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 5900.00 1463954.56 21.80 201.38
       Most Active Puts by Contract Value (in Cr)
    NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 5900.00 2325680.44 46.85 -42.69
    NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 6000.00 1294415.67 125.35 -41.84
       Most Active Future by Contracts Value (in Cr)
    LICHSGFIN ( 25 Nov 2010 ) - 134716.71 1073.00 22.12
    SBIN ( 25 Nov 2010 ) - 134006.60 2860.25 3.56
        International News
     
     
    • Mexican consumer prices rose 0.68% in the first half of November compared to 0.53% increase during the same period last year. The core consumer price index, which excludes certain food and energy prices, rose 0.16%.(RTT News)
    • Mideast cell phone retailer Axiom Telecom has reached a distribution deal with BlackBerry maker Research In Motion aimed at boosting sales of the handsets throughout the region. Axiom says the distribution agreement covers Axiom's own shops as well as wholesalers and other retailers. It includes the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Lebanon. (Economic Times)
    • UK's economy expanded by a robust 0.8% in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, helped by a pick-up in trade. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth climbed by 2.8% between July and September compared with the third quarter in 2009. (Economic Times)
     
     
        Domestic News
     
     
    • Government has said the housing finance racket unearthed by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), leading to the arrest of the CEO of LIC Housing Finance and other senior officials of public sector banks, is a bribery case involving some individuals and is not a large-scale scam. (DNA)
    • Indian oil explorer Jubilant Energy has got listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) market of the London Stock Exchange. In a regulatory filing, the company said the entire issued share capital comprising 41.63 crore ordinary shares of 0.01 euro each, has been admitted to trade on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange (LSE). (Business Standard)
    • Abbott India Ltd., a listed subsidiary of drug maker Abbott Laboratories, and Solvay India Ltd. have jointly announced on Wednesday they will merge at a swap ratio of 2:3 where every shareholder of Abbott Laboratories will receive three shares of Solvay India for two shares they own. (Livemint)
     
     
    CurrencyExchange-Rate1D Chg(%)1M Chg(%)
    EUR 61.12 -1.10 % -1.12 %
    GBP 72.18 -0.52 % 1.76 %
    USD 45.66 0.11 % 2.51 %
    FIIs ActivityRs. Cr.MTDYTD
    Equity in flows 2857.30 67658.90 681850.90
    Equity Out flows 4253.50 50209.40 551478.60
    Net -1396.20 17449.50 130372.40

    Buy / Sell (Nov 24, 2010)
     BuySell Net
    FII3173.823647.13 -473.31
    DII1311.231406.17 -94.94