Friday, December 18, 2009

Market Outlook 18th Dec 2009

 
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
SUPPORT
5013
5004
4981
4966
RESISTANCE
5048
5072
5087
5095
5110
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Ranbaxy, Pantaloon Retail, Tata Chem, ACC, Bajaj Auto, Hotel Leela, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Sail Ltd & Gtl Ltd.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Off shore, Andhra Bank, Ivrcl Infra, Idea, Tata Comm, Orient Bank, Allahabad Bank, BRFL, Lic house & IOB.
 Nifty is in Down trend 
 
 
 NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Below 5013 level, selling may continue up to 5004-5006 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4989-4991 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 5046-5048 zone. Above this zone, expect short covering up to 5070-5072 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5085-5087 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 5093-5095 zone. Stop Loss at 5108-5110 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4981-4983 zone can create panic up to 4966-4968 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
BSE SENSEX: 
 Selling may continue up to 16670.48-16672.48 zone.
Stop Loss is too far on upper side at 17065.77-17067.77 zone.
 
Equity:
 
DLF (NSE Cash)
Down side is limited & may recover from lower levels.

Below 362 level, selling may continue up to 358 level.

Above 369 level, expect short covering up to 377-379 zone by non-stop.
 
 
CROMPTON GREAVES (NSE Cash)
Explosive & will zoom.

Down side risk up to 415 level also possible. Above 424-426 zone, it can zoom up to 444 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 448-450 zone by non-stop.

If breaks & sustains below 415 level, then expect unwinding up to 401 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 398 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
ATLANTA LTD (NSE Cash)
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.

Above 174 level, rally may continue up to 177 & 178 levels.

Below 170 level, expect profit booking up to 148 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 147 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
DR.REDDY'S LABS (NSE Cash)
Explosive & will zoom.

Above 1186 & 1192 levels, rally may continue up to 1216 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1224-1226 zone by non-stop.

Below 1163 level, expect profit booking up to 1150 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 1140 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.15.30? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy HCL TECH FUTURES (NSE) with a Stop Loss of 343.00-345.00 zone. 

Target at 376.80-378.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.7.05? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy YES BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 245.00-247.00 zone. 

Target at 261.80-263.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.9.20? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy CANARA BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 377.00-379.00 zone. 

Target at 391.00-393.00 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):  
TATASTEEL 560 PUT OPTION
No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Above 16 level, expect short covering up to 19 level by non-stop.

Below 12 level, selling may continue up to 10 level.
 
 
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION
Expected to gain. 

Down side risk up to 71 level also possible. Above 87 & 90 levels, it can zoom up to 107-109 zone by non-stop.

Below 63 level, expect further selling up to 53-55 zone by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
TCS FUTURES
Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Down side risk up to 710 & 716 levels also possible. Keep a Stop Loss at 701-703 zone. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Will try to rally up to 730 level. Above 736 level, expect a jump up to 742-744 zone by non-stop.
 
 
HOUSING DEV & INFRA FUTURES
Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Below 347 level, expect profit booking up to 334 level by non-stop. Keep a Stop Loss at 332 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

354 & 355 levels will continue to resist up move. Above 372 level, expect a jump up to 375-377 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:
GLENMARK PHARM (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 275.45-277.45 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
 
 
EXIDE INDS (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 124.20-126.20 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
SPOT LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   5041.75 ( -0.01 %) -0.30       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5066.25 5090.75   5117.30  
Support 5015.20 4988.65 4964.15

BSE Sensex  16894.25 ( -0.11 %) -18.52     
  1 2 3
Resistance 16973.85 17053.44 17127.37
Support 16820.33 16746.40 16666.81
 
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 17-Dec-2009 2356.45 2163.63 192.82
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 17-Dec-2009 1225.62 1092.34 133.28
 
 
stocks that are in news today:
-Board meet: Pipavav Shipyard on general business activity
-Bright Bros buy back offer at maximum Rs 50/share
-Sona Koya eyes acquisition in aerospace –DNA
-Bank of Baroda: FIIs can purchase in open market
-IFCI still in NSE F&O curb
-Tata Motors Group global sales grew by 62% in November 2009 versus November 2008
-No circuit filter for D-link India today
-Aarey Drugs approves 2:1 rights issue at Rs 25 (cmp 44)
-KRBL board approves 1:10 stock split
-Indian ADRs: HDFC Bank down 4.7%, ICICI Bank down 3.5%
_Reliance Calls: RNRL – Dadri case update
-UP government initiates repossession procedure for Dadri land
-CNBC-TV18 ALERT: Dadri land allotted to ADAG company power plant
-UP Power Secretary asks land to be returned to farmers ready to return compensation
ketan lakhani_Reliance Calls: RIL-RNRL case update: RIL says
-If 40 mmscmd sold at $2.34, will get return of 2.6%
-Rate of return even lower than borrowing cost
-Selling at $2.34/mmbtu subsidy to RNRL will be $6.3 billion
-Company borrowed $6 bn at average rate of 10%
-At $2.34/mmBtu, net return is $1.8 on investment of $12      
-At valuation of $4.2/mmbtu, total cost is $1.94/mmBtu
-By selling 40 mmscmd at $2.34/mmbtu, profit $0.23
-Return of equity pre tax at 3.9%; post tax at 2.5%
-Ind norm for equity return for similar project at 20%
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 18th Dec 2009

 
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
SUPPORT
5013
5004
4981
4966
RESISTANCE
5048
5072
5087
5095
5110
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Ranbaxy, Pantaloon Retail, Tata Chem, ACC, Bajaj Auto, Hotel Leela, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Sail Ltd & Gtl Ltd.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Off shore, Andhra Bank, Ivrcl Infra, Idea, Tata Comm, Orient Bank, Allahabad Bank, BRFL, Lic house & IOB.
 Nifty is in Down trend 
 
 
 NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Below 5013 level, selling may continue up to 5004-5006 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4989-4991 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 5046-5048 zone. Above this zone, expect short covering up to 5070-5072 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5085-5087 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 5093-5095 zone. Stop Loss at 5108-5110 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4981-4983 zone can create panic up to 4966-4968 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
BSE SENSEX: 
 Selling may continue up to 16670.48-16672.48 zone.
Stop Loss is too far on upper side at 17065.77-17067.77 zone.
 
Equity:
 
DLF (NSE Cash)
Down side is limited & may recover from lower levels.

Below 362 level, selling may continue up to 358 level.

Above 369 level, expect short covering up to 377-379 zone by non-stop.
 
 
CROMPTON GREAVES (NSE Cash)
Explosive & will zoom.

Down side risk up to 415 level also possible. Above 424-426 zone, it can zoom up to 444 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 448-450 zone by non-stop.

If breaks & sustains below 415 level, then expect unwinding up to 401 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 398 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
ATLANTA LTD (NSE Cash)
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.

Above 174 level, rally may continue up to 177 & 178 levels.

Below 170 level, expect profit booking up to 148 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 147 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
DR.REDDY'S LABS (NSE Cash)
Explosive & will zoom.

Above 1186 & 1192 levels, rally may continue up to 1216 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1224-1226 zone by non-stop.

Below 1163 level, expect profit booking up to 1150 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 1140 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.15.30? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy HCL TECH FUTURES (NSE) with a Stop Loss of 343.00-345.00 zone. 

Target at 376.80-378.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.7.05? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy YES BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 245.00-247.00 zone. 

Target at 261.80-263.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.9.20? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy CANARA BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 377.00-379.00 zone. 

Target at 391.00-393.00 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):  
TATASTEEL 560 PUT OPTION
No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Above 16 level, expect short covering up to 19 level by non-stop.

Below 12 level, selling may continue up to 10 level.
 
 
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION
Expected to gain. 

Down side risk up to 71 level also possible. Above 87 & 90 levels, it can zoom up to 107-109 zone by non-stop.

Below 63 level, expect further selling up to 53-55 zone by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
TCS FUTURES
Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Down side risk up to 710 & 716 levels also possible. Keep a Stop Loss at 701-703 zone. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Will try to rally up to 730 level. Above 736 level, expect a jump up to 742-744 zone by non-stop.
 
 
HOUSING DEV & INFRA FUTURES
Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Below 347 level, expect profit booking up to 334 level by non-stop. Keep a Stop Loss at 332 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

354 & 355 levels will continue to resist up move. Above 372 level, expect a jump up to 375-377 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:
GLENMARK PHARM (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 275.45-277.45 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
 
 
EXIDE INDS (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 124.20-126.20 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
SPOT LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   5041.75 ( -0.01 %) -0.30       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5066.25 5090.75   5117.30  
Support 5015.20 4988.65 4964.15

BSE Sensex  16894.25 ( -0.11 %) -18.52     
  1 2 3
Resistance 16973.85 17053.44 17127.37
Support 16820.33 16746.40 16666.81
 
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 17-Dec-2009 2356.45 2163.63 192.82
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 17-Dec-2009 1225.62 1092.34 133.28
 
 
stocks that are in news today:
-Board meet: Pipavav Shipyard on general business activity
-Bright Bros buy back offer at maximum Rs 50/share
-Sona Koya eyes acquisition in aerospace –DNA
-Bank of Baroda: FIIs can purchase in open market
-IFCI still in NSE F&O curb
-Tata Motors Group global sales grew by 62% in November 2009 versus November 2008
-No circuit filter for D-link India today
-Aarey Drugs approves 2:1 rights issue at Rs 25 (cmp 44)
-KRBL board approves 1:10 stock split
-Indian ADRs: HDFC Bank down 4.7%, ICICI Bank down 3.5%
_Reliance Calls: RNRL – Dadri case update
-UP government initiates repossession procedure for Dadri land
-CNBC-TV18 ALERT: Dadri land allotted to ADAG company power plant
-UP Power Secretary asks land to be returned to farmers ready to return compensation
ketan lakhani_Reliance Calls: RIL-RNRL case update: RIL says
-If 40 mmscmd sold at $2.34, will get return of 2.6%
-Rate of return even lower than borrowing cost
-Selling at $2.34/mmbtu subsidy to RNRL will be $6.3 billion
-Company borrowed $6 bn at average rate of 10%
-At $2.34/mmBtu, net return is $1.8 on investment of $12      
-At valuation of $4.2/mmbtu, total cost is $1.94/mmBtu
-By selling 40 mmscmd at $2.34/mmbtu, profit $0.23
-Return of equity pre tax at 3.9%; post tax at 2.5%
-Ind norm for equity return for similar project at 20%
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381