Thursday, November 26, 2009

Market Outlook 26th Nov 2009

INTRADAY calls for 26th Nov 2009
+ve Sector, script : Bank, ACC, Pantaloon, BajajHind, BPCL,Colpal,
GESHIP, GSPL
Buy Bajaj-Auto-1542 @ 1530-1525 for 1549-1565+ with sl 1510
Buy AxisBank-1016 @ 1006-1001 for 1627-1639+ with sl 995
Buy HDFCBank-1802 for 1827-1843+ with sl 1785
Buy BOB-556 @ 550-548 for 563-569+ with sl 541
Buy GAIL-418 @ 415-410 for 427-435+ with sl 404 
 
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
RESISTANCE
5120
5130
5144
5152
5166
SUPPORT
5098
5086
5062
5047
5040
5025
 
 
__________________________________________________________________
Strong Futures
This is list of 10 Strong Futures: Hind Hind Zinc, Dena Bank, Jindal Saw Steel, Sesa Goa, Orchid Chem, Jindal Steel, Sintex, Gail, McDowell-N & BPCL
Weak Futures
This is the list of 10 Weak Futures: RCom, Unitech, Bharti Airtel, Purva, Idea, HDIL, TTML, EKC, Rel Infra & DLF
_________________________________________________________________
 
Daily trend of the market is Up.
Even though the market is moving in a sideways zone it is still in uptrend, so the readers who bought Nifty on 26th November may go on holding the longs till market is in uptrend
___________________________________________________________
Percentage above support
Percentage of stocks above support is still above 50%, so readers who had created long positions in deliveries on 12th November may go on holding them till the percentage remains above 50%
__________________________________________________________________
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 5120 level, rally may continue up to 5128-5130 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5142-5144 zone by non-stop.
Support at 5086 & 5098 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 5062-5064 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5047-5049 zone by non-stop.

Below 5040-5042 zone, expect panic up to 5025-5027 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 5150-5152 zone can take it up to 5164-5166 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors: 
Bearish Trend. Problem is that, we are trading above Stop Loss level of 5082.00. Risk is that, if closes above 5082.00 level for consecutive 3 days then traders can expect short covering up to 5201.90 level by non-stop.
If bears can able to control below 5082.00 level, then traders can expect a target of 4842.20 level.
 
Today's Expectation:
SGX NIFTY (DEC) quoting at 5120.00.(08.25 AM IST)
This trend is on expected lines. If this downtrend continues, then it can continue up to 1 (or) 2 days.
If Short Covering starts, then it may continue up to 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Months (or) even 1 Year.
 
BSE SENSEX:
Uptrend may continue, as per technicals. 
Short-Term Investors: 
Bullish Trend. Target at 17499.70.
Stop Loss is too far on down side, can be placed at around 16666.70.
 
POSITIONAL BUY:
Buy AMARJYOTHI SPG (BSE Cash & BSE Code:521097) 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 39.75. Above 47.50, it will zoom.
 
Today: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Week: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

3 Months: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
Buy MEDICAMEN BIOTEC (BSE Cash & BSE Code:531146) 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 17.05. Above 24.90, it will zoom.
 
Today: Expect Profit Booking. Yesterday's rally was a surprise.

1 Week: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

3 Months: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
Buy RELIANCE INDS (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 500325) 
Bullish, as per technicals. Buy with a SL of 2051.00. Above 2205.00, it will zoom.
 
1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

3 Months: Bearish, as per current market conditions.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
Buy JSW STEEL (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 500228) 
Bullish, as per technicals. Buy with a SL of 980.85. Above 1051.70, it will zoom.
 
1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

3 Months: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
Buy INDO TECH TRANSFORMERS (NSE Cash)
Risk is that, it should not trade & sustain below 333.60 level.

EVEREADY INDS (NSE Cash)
Risk is that, it should not trade & sustain below 68.30 level.
 
SPOT INDEX LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   5108.15 ( 0.35 %) 17.60       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5137.98 5167.82   5197.63  
Support 5078.33 5048.52 5018.68

BSE Sensex  17198.95 ( 0.40 %) 67.87     
  1 2 3
Resistance 17284.90 17370.86 17451.23
Support 17118.57 17038.20 16952.24
 
 
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 25-Nov-2009 2041.1 2372.75 -331.65
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 25-Nov-2009 1296.35 1154.66 141.69
 
 
 
Interesting findings on web:
Source: Bloomberg.
India's benchmark stock index rose. ACC Ltd. led cement producers higher on the expectation higher prices of the commodity may help narrow the industry's underperformance compared to the broader market.
ACC, India's biggest cement maker, rose 1.3 percent. Ambuja Cements Ltd., a unit of the world's second-largest cement maker Holcim Ltd., added 1.9 percent.
"Cement stocks have underperformed the broader market over the past three months," said Ajit Motwani, an analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. "Expectations from the industry are very low so if we see cement prices rise a little we could see stock prices firming up."
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive index, or Sensex, added 67.87, or 0.4 percent, to 17,198.95. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange rose 0.4 percent to 5,108.15. The BSE 200 Index climbed 0.4 percent to 2,133.01.
ACC gained 1.3 percent to 794.05 rupees. The stock climbed 0.6 percent over the past three months, compared with a 9.6 percent advance in the Sensex. Ambuja Cement rose 1.9 percent to 91.95 rupees, trimming its drop in the period to 6 percent.
Satyam Computer Services Ltd. fell 11 percent to 90.75 rupees, the most since January, after the nation's Central Bureau of Investigation said the accounting fraud was 40 percent larger than what the Indian software company's former chairman previously said.
Larger Fraud
Investigators found 28.09 billion rupees ($606 million) of additional fraud at Satyam, V.V. Lakshmi Narayana, a deputy inspector general at the agency, said in a telephone interview from Hyderabad today. That's on top of the 71.36 billion rupees former Chairman B. Ramalinga Raju said he misrepresented by inflating company assets and understating debt.
Bharti Airtel Ltd., the nation's biggest mobile phone operator, fell 0.3 percent to 281.75 rupees after its stock rating was cut to "underweight" from "neutral" at HSBC Holdings Plc.
Astec Lifesciences Ltd. rose 2.4 percent to 84 rupees in its debut today. The company sold shares in its initial public offering at 82 rupees each.
Source: Reuters.
* Main index at highest close in 5 weeks; volume light * Reliance Industries, ITC lead gainers * Infosys rallies after CFO comments at Reuters Summit
Indian shares climbed 0.4 percent to their highest close in more than five weeks on Wednesday, propelled by energy major Reliance Industries (RELI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) and IT bellwether Infosys (INFY.BO: Quote, Profile, Research). Firmer global markets after U.S. Federal Reserve officials raised their growth estimate for 2010 helped underpin sentiment.  However, trading volume was relatively light with fewer participation from foreign funds and the expiry of monthly derivatives contracts on Thursday, traders said. Infosys, India's No. 2 outsourcer, climbed to all-time high of 2,457.90 rupees, after its chief financial officer told the Reuters India Summit the company was focused on small acquisitions to boost growth.The stock closed up 0.3 percent at 2,433.60 rupees. The 30-share BSE index .BSESN rose 67.87 points to 17,198.95, its highest close since Oct. 20.
Seventeen of itscomponents gained. "I think market is in a consolidation range as we move towards expiry," said Jigar Shah, vice-president of equity sales at Motilal Oswal. Foreign funds, who have bought shares worth more than $15 billion this year, have been taking profits over the past three sessions. Reliance, which has made an offer for bankrupt chemical company LyondellBasell [ACCEIN.UL], firmed 0.8 percent to 2,193.75 rupees. Asia's top oil refiner China Petroleum and Chemical Corp and U.S. private equity firm TPG [TPG.UL] are not considering a bid to buy Lyondell, a source close to the situation said.
"It is good if there are no competitors for Reliance's bid for LyondellBasell," said Prayesh Jain, research analyst with India Infoline. The stock, which has the heaviest weight in the BSE index, also got a boost as it reopened 900 gas stations and neared the record date on Friday for its 1:1 bonus issue. 
In the broader market, losers outnumbered gainers in the ratio of 1.1:1. Volume was low with 372 million shares changing hands on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Cigarette and hotel group ITC (ITC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed 1.9 percent to 268.75 rupees on better outlook, dealers said. Telecom stocks continued their fall with sector leader Bharti Airtel (BRTI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) dropping 0.3 percent and rival Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) shedding 1.4 percent. "Despite a meaningful de-rating of telecom stocks, we have a cautious sector view as we expect tariff pressures to continue and the competitive intensity to increase as more new players with deep pockets enter," HSBC securities said in a note. It said faster-than-estimated progress on mobile number portability clouded the outlook further. The 50-share NSE index .NSEI closed up 0.4 percent at 5,108.15.
STOCKS THAT MOVED
* State oil marketing companies Indian Oil Corp (IOC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research), Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) and Bharat Petroleum (BPCL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 2.6-6.9 percent as oil prices hovered around $76 a barrel. These companies are forced to sell fuel products at mandated discounts.
* Mahindra Satyam (SATY.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 10.9 percent to 90.55 rupees, after newspapers reported the fraud by former chairman of Satyam Computers was larger than initially estimated. Satyam Computers was acquired by Tech Mahindra (TEML.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) in April.
* State-run hydro power producer NHPC (NHPC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) slipped 1.7 percent to 31 rupees, after a senior company official said it was likely to miss its 2007-2012 capacity addition target by 800 megawatts. 
MAIN TOP 3 BY VOLUME * Mahindra Satyam on 33.6 million shares * Aztec Lifesciences (ASTE.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 12.2 million shares * Suzlon Energy (SUZL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 8.9 million shares.
Source: India Infoline.
With F&O expiry just a day away, traders stayed on the sidelines as the key indices moved in a narrow range for the entire day.
The Nifty hit a one-month high of 5,137 in the early afternoon trades but profit booking brought the index lower from day's high towards the close of the day.
The BSE Sensex ended a listless trading day at 17,199, up 68 points or 0.4% from the previous close. The NSE Nifty gained 18 points or 0.4% to close at 5111.55.
Among the index heavyweights, Reliance Industries rose 1% to close at Rs2,196 after the company re-opened retail fuel outlets. Maruti advanced further by 2% to Rs1,629 on expectations of pick up in sales this month. Hero Honda, ITC, Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank were among the top gainers.
Cairn, R Com, Reliance Infra and Suzlon were among the top losers within the index.
Outside the main indices, the big gainers in the broader market were Mastek, NESCO, KPIT Cummins and Orchid Chemicals. On the other hand, losers included Maytas Infra, Motherson Sumi, Indiabulls Real Estate and Tech Mahindra.
Among the sectoral indices, FMCG, Oil and Gas, PSU and Bankex gained by 1% each. Realty and pharma indices were among the major losers.
The BSE Mid-Cap index ended lower by 0.10% while the BSE Small-Cap index was down by 0.12 %.
Shares of oil marketing companies surged smartly after US light crude oil for January delivery fell $1.11 to settle at $76.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. BPCL rose 6% to Rs575, IOC gained 3% to Rs297 and HPCL was up by 3% to Rs359.
Shares of Uttar Pradesh-based sugar companies rose on Wednesday after the state's sugar mill association signed an agreement with the sugarcane farmers on the price for the ongoing season (October-September 2009-10).
Sugar producers with mills in Uttar Pradesh, India's biggest cane-growing state, will pay growers Rs190 rupees per quintal (100 kilograms), ending a dispute that caused a month-long delay to the start of the season. The price fixed is broadly in line with expectations.
Balrampur Chini was up 1% at Rs135, Bajaj Hindusthan gained 5% to Rs223, Triveni Engineering was up 2% at Rs106 and Dhampur Sugar advanced 4% to Rs134.
Source: Kotak Securities.
Among the Sensex pack 17 stocks ended in green territory and 13 in red. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market remained negative as 1486 stocks closed in red while 1290 stocks closed in green and 73 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.
The BSE Sensex closed higher by 67.87 points or (0.40%) at 17,198.95 and NSE Nifty ended marginally up by 17.60 points or (0.35%) at 5,108.15. BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with losses of 7.48 and 12.44 points at 6,493.16 and 7,605.26 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 17,290.48 and intraday low of 17,124.15.
Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are Herohonda Motors (2.24%), ITC (1.93%), HUL (1.75%), HDFC Bank (1.46%), Maruti Suzuki (1.34%), ACC (1.29%), BHEL (0.96%), Tata Steel (0.86%), Ieliance Industries (0.81%) and SBI (0.79%).
Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are DLF Ltd (2.91%), RCom (1.44%), JP Associates (1.16%), Tata Motors (0.90%), Reliance Infra (0.78%), M&M Ltd (0.73%) and ICICI Bank (0.68%).
The BSE FMCG index was at 2,928.47 up by 41.60 points or by (1.44%) The main gainers were Itc up by (1.93%) at Rs.268.75, Nestle India up by (1.88%) at Rs.2588.05, Hindustan Unilever up by (1.75%) at Rs.284.35, Colgate Palmolive up by (1.43%) at Rs.682.45, Godrej Cons up by (1.29%) at Rs.286.4.
The BSE OIL&GAS index was at 10,470.43 up by 112.65 points or by (1.09%) The main gainers were Bharat Petro Cor up by (6.88%) at Rs.576.25, Gail India up by (4.27%) at Rs.419.25, Hindustan Petro up by (3.13%) at Rs.358.8, Indian Oil Corp up by (2.59%) at Rs.297, Reliance Inds up by (0.81%) at Rs.2193.75.
The BSE PSU index was at 9,238.79 up by 64.01 points or by (0.7%) The main gainers were Bharat Petro Cor up by (6.88%) at Rs.576.25, Mmtc up by (4.39%) at Rs.35435.35, Gail India up by (4.27%) at Rs.419.25, Hindustan Petro up by (3.13%) at Rs.358.8, Iob up by (2.93%) at Rs.121.2.
The BSE BANKEX index was at 10,334.82 up by 52.71 points or by (0.51%) The main gainers were Iob up by (2.93%) at Rs.121.2, Punjab Nat Bank up by (1.98%) at Rs.933.4, Bob up by (1.82%) at Rs.556.8, Axis Bank up by (1.7%) at Rs.1016.8, Indusind Bank up by (1.55%) at Rs.124.5.
The BSE REALTY indexwas at 3,712.52 down by 112.24 points or by (2.93%) The main losers were Indiabulls Real down by (5%) at Rs.210.75, Hdil down by (4.55%) at Rs.320.15, Phoenix Mills down by (3.16%) at Rs.186.7, Dlf down by (2.91%) at Rs.362.15, Ansal Prop down by (2.73%) at Rs.65.9.
BSE HC index was at 4,738.89 down by 23.26 points or by (0.49%) The main losers were Glaxosmithkl Phar down by (2.38%) at Rs.1619.1, Piramal Health down by (2.02%) at Rs.401.8, Dishman Pharma down by (1.71%) at Rs.221.85, Aurobindo Phar down by (1.71%) at Rs.846.9, Sterling Bio down by (1.56%) at Rs.97.9.
Suzlon Energy Limited lost 1.82%. The company announced the entering of an agreement between Infigen Energy, a leading specialist renewable energy business, and the company''s Australian operations arm Suzlon Energy Australia Pty Ltd. The agreement calls for the delivery of 20 units of Suzlon''s S88 - 2.1 MW wind turbine generators (WTGs) that will be installed at one of the wind farms in Infigen''s pipeline of future projects in New South Wales.
Welspun Gujarat SR advanced by 2.93%. The company launched and successfully completed the capital raising exercise of US$ 250 million. This capital raising exercise has been achieved over the last two months by way of $150 million of Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCB).
Gail India Ltd climbed by 4.27% on report the Company would provide Rs. 500 crore to GAIL Gas for funding its four ongoing city gas projects in the country.
Bharti Airtel slipped by 0.32%. The company is now looking at making an entry in the hospitality business and would take the acquisition route to enter the hospitality business.
Rupee:
The partially convertible rupee ended at 46.21/22 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Tuesday's close of 46.37/38.
Asia:
Nikkei 225 9,445.36     +3.72 ( +0.04%). (08.10 AM IST)
HSI 22451.95 -159.85 -0.71%. (08.10 AM IST)
SSE Composite 3290.17 3277.38 3305.33 3277.33 -0.39. (08.12 AM IST)
Source: Bloomberg.
By Shani Raja
Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Most Asian stocks rose, led by commodity producers after oil and metal prices climbed. Japanese automakers and electronic companies declined as the U.S. dollar traded close to a 14-year low against the yen.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, added 1 percent in Sydney as copper rose to a 14-month high in New York yesterday. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. advanced 1.2 percent after crude oil touched $78 a barrel. Honda Motor Co., a carmaker that gets 47 percent of its sales in North America, lost 1.8 percent. Sony Corp., the maker of the PlayStation 3 game machine, fell 1.2 percent.
"The improved economic climate is bolstering demand for commodities," said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees the equivalent of $450 million in Tokyo at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. "The strong yen will curb a further rebound in corporate earnings and weigh on investor sentiment."
Seven stocks advanced for every six that declined on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which added 0.2 percent to 118.51 as of 10:14 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge has climbed 68 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 amid signs government stimulus measures were reviving economies around the world.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 0.3 percent, while South Korea's Kospi Index gained 0.4 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed.
The U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 added 0.5 percent yesterday. Government reports showed sales of new homes rose last month to the highest level in 13 months, while the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest since September 2008. Another report showed spending by U.S. consumers increased more in October than economists had projected.
Rising Valuations
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has gained 32 percent this year, more than the S&P 500's 23 percent increase. Shares in the Asian gauge trade at 1.5 times book value, rising from 1.03 at the gauge's low this year on March 9, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
BHP added 1 percent to A$41.58. Woodside rose 1.2 percent to A$49.98. Oil and metals prices advanced as the weaker dollar boosted the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Crude oil for January delivery rose 2.6 percent to $77.96 a barrel in New York yesterday, the highest settlement since Nov. 18. Crude rose as high as $78.09. Copper futures gained 1.7 percent.
Honda lost 1.8 percent to 2,745 yen. Mazda Motor Corp., which generated 25 percent of its revenue in the September quarter from North America, slumped 3.2 percent to 181 yen.
The dollar depreciated to as low as 87.21 against the yen, a level not seen since Jan. 21. On that day, it sank to 87.13, the lowest since July 1995. A weaker dollar reduces the value of overseas sales at Japanese companies when converted into their home currency.
Sony declined 1.2 percent to 2,385 yen, while Pioneer Corp., which makes car-navigation and audio equipment, sank 2.5 percent to 235 yen.
 
MARKET BUZZ:
 
(May not be useful for day-traders.)

Vadilal Industries-Value Buy

BSE 519156
 
  
Vadilal Industries is one the leading brands of Ice cream in India with predominant presence in Gujarat although, of late, company is trying to achieve pan-India presence thru multi-localtion production facilities.  Now, company is producing processed foods including rotis, ready-to-eat vegetables, french fries, snacks, pulp etc and aggressively pushing sales of same thru organised retail chains. Present market cap of Vadilal ind is less than 60 crs which is extremely low considering strong brand name and improved financial performance:
 
                                      H1 09-10      H1 08-09
 
Net Sales                       118.00           87.00
 
PAT                                    9.82            3.83
 
Equity                                 7.17            7.17
 
EPS Rs                             13.70
 
Company has improved its results in current year by a big margin. H1 EPS is 13.70.  EPS for 09-10 can be Rs 19-20. Stock is trading at 4.00xFY10E EPS. Scrip is available at compelling valuations as FMCG companies get much much higher PE Ratios. Company has put in place big capacities and without additional capex, can achieve double turnover. Renowned investor Rakesh also holds significant stake in the company.
 
Investors can expect 30-40% appreciation in next few weeks. Scrip has potential to deliver more than 100% appreciation in less than 1 year.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381