Sunday, October 10, 2010

Market Outlook 11th Oct 2010

Nifty has formed descending triangle pattern indicating negative breakout
On daily chart Nifty exhibiting descending triangle which is bearish breakout pattern if lower trend line breaks. Price is now near to lower trend line, and moving with in triangle. Nifty next resistance seems at 6,180 while support at 6,080 if nifty breaches 6,180 then we could see rally up to 6,220 on the flip side if the level of 6,040 breaches decisively then we could see fall up to strong support of 6,020. Technical momentum indicators (MACD, RSI and Stochastic) are supporting this view.


Technical Pick
1) Binani Industry: Buy
2) GMR Infrastructure: Buy
3) Sujana Towers: Buy
3) Koutons: Sell
7 to 10% correction from current levels could be a good buying opportunity
Indian market has run up substantially over the past few weeks, volatility & nervousness is expected to remain high ahead of the September quarter 2011 results. In Q2FY11, we expect corporates to do well on the revenue front. Among the sectors, Banking, Metals & Consumer Durables could positively surprise, while FMCG, IT, Cement & Autos are expected to deliver results in line with the expectations However, the overall margins are expected to be under pressure due to higher input & interest cost as in the June quarter. Overall corporate earnings growth is unlikely to match the pace of rise in the stock prices in the near term. So it undergo minor correction before the next upmove begins. Any correction, if it takes place, is expected to be short lived in near term & a dip of 7-10% from current levels should be considered as a buying opportunity.

Fundamental Pick
1) Sterlite Technologies: Buy
2) Ashok Leyland: Buy
Global markets to be driven by earning numbers, Federal Reserve policy meeting will also be eyed
Global equity markets gained significantly during the week with some better than expected economic data and Bank of Japan favourable move to cut interest rate raising investors sentiments. Markets is likely to remain firm in the coming week with investors expecting news to come from Fed next policy meeting. In the US, the minutes of the Federal Reserve latest policy meeting are due on Tueday, along with the Treasury's monthly budget statement on Wednesday. Further, there trade balance figures and jobless claims data in the United Kingdom, plus the European Central Bank monthly report and European Union trade balance figures. The approval given by Japanese cabinet for a new emergency stimulus package worth USD 61.3 billion to help shore up an economy will boost investors confidence. However, Investors will eye on the earning season which has kicked off on Friday with Alcoa posting better numbers for further direction.

Bond are expected to stay flat as investors kept eye on key economic data
Bond are expected to stay flat as investors kept eye on key economic data due next week. Industrial output data for August will be announced on Tuesday while inflation data for September will be released on Thursday. Meanwhile, we believe the concerns on liquidity front might be nuteralised from apprehension over rate hike.

Crude prices likely to slowdown, gold prices may scale fresh highs
Crude oil prices are likely to be subdued in the coming week as the crude inventories increased by huge ammount while fuel too consumption declined. Gold prices are likely scale fresh highs in the coming week on demand for an alternative to currencies. The US dollar is on a weak trend which may further help the gold prices to rally. Domestic gold prices are also likely to stay strong amidst the ongoing festivities.

Strong & Weak Stocks for 11th Oct 2010
This is list of 10 strong stocks: 
Orchid Chem, Rel Media, MLL, KFA, ABG Ship, IFCI, Bhushan Steel, Biocon, Hindalco & Sintex. 
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks
Finan Tech, Nagar Cont, Idea, GVKPIL, GTL Infra, Asian Paint, United Phosphoro, Hind Petro, BPCL & TV-18.
The daily trend of nifty is in Uptrend 

  • Supp / Resis Spot/Cash Index Levels for Intraday 11th Oct

Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 6145.706187.95 6227.30
Support 6064.106024.75 5982.50
Sensex Resistance 20391.05 20531.85 20654.50
Support 20127.60 20004.95 19864.15

SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS IN SPOT/ CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY TRADING 11TH OCT 2010
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
ABG Shipyard Ltd. NSE 293.65 300.92 280.87 308.18 268.08 320.97 260.82
Bank of Baroda NSE 942.20 954.43 927.53 966.67 912.87 981.33 900.63
Bank of India NSE 558.45 579.20 544.40 599.95 530.35 614.00 509.60
Bank of Maharashtra NSE 76.20 77.10 75.70 78.00 75.20 78.50 74.30
Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1251.03 1267.09 1237.89 1283.14 1224.74 1296.29 1208.69
Bhushan Steel Ltd. NSE 499.50 513.43 488.98 527.37 478.47 537.88 464.53
Biocon Ltd. NSE 410.95 418.62 400.27 426.28 389.58 436.97 381.92
Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. NSE 1173.05 1189.33 1159.43 1205.62 1145.82 1219.23 1129.53
GTL Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 44.70 45.42 44.27 46.13 43.83 46.57 43.12
GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 46.05 47.00 45.35 47.95 44.65 48.65 43.70
Hindalco Industries Ltd. NSE 214.70 217.70 211.25 220.70 207.80 224.15 204.80
Hindustan Construction Company Ltd. NSE 65.25 67.33 63.18 69.42 61.12 71.48 59.03
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd. NSE 240.60 246.30 235.60 252.00 230.60 257.00 224.90
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. NSE 511.95 519.10 506.70 526.25 501.45 531.50 494.30
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. NSE 295.80 299.45 292.70 303.10 289.60 306.20 285.95
Hindustan Zinc Ltd. NSE 1175.65 1194.57 1163.37 1213.48 1151.08 1225.77 1132.17
Idea Cellular Ltd. NSE 70.75 72.67 69.57 74.58 68.38 75.77 66.47
IFCI Ltd. NSE 73.15 74.80 70.60 76.45 68.05 79.00 66.40
Kingfisher Airlines Ltd. NSE 81.05 83.83 78.08 86.62 75.12 89.58 72.33
Mercator Lines Ltd. NSE 67.90 69.88 64.73 71.87 61.57 75.03 59.58
Nagarjuna Construction Co. Ltd. NSE 152.00 154.47 150.32 156.93 148.63 158.62 146.17
Nagarjuna Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. NSE 31.50 32.58 30.78 33.67 30.07 34.38 28.98
NSE Index NSE 6103.45 6145.70 6064.10 6187.95 6024.75 6227.30 5982.50
Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. NSE 281.65 291.77 272.07 301.88 262.48 311.47 252.37
Reliance Capital Ltd. NSE 848.00 861.67 836.17 875.33 824.33 887.17 810.67
Reliance Communications Ltd. NSE 180.55 183.53 177.88 186.52 175.22 189.18 172.23
Reliance Industrial InfraStructure Ltd. NSE 899.25 914.50 884.50 929.75 869.75 944.50 854.50
Reliance Industries Ltd. NSE 1049.65 1059.45 1035.20 1069.25 1020.75 1083.70 1010.95
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 1074.35 1109.38 1050.93 1144.42 1027.52 1167.83 992.48
Reliance Media Works Ltd. NSE 275.85 284.85 269.60 293.85 263.35 300.10 254.35
Reliance Natural Resources Ltd. NSE 40.35 41.07 39.87 41.78 39.38 42.27 38.67
Reliance Power Ltd. NSE 165.05 166.87 163.72 168.68 162.38 170.02 160.57
Sintex Industries Ltd. NSE 426.80 434.28 421.03 441.77 415.27 447.53 407.78
Tech Mahindra Ltd. NSE 766.65 773.82 759.97 780.98 753.28 787.67 746.12
Television Eighteen India Ltd. NSE 91.35 92.77 90.47 94.18 89.58 95.07 88.17
United Bank of India NSE 122.25 124.73 120.23 127.22 118.22 129.23 115.73
United Breweries Ltd. NSE 449.85 459.47 441.57 469.08 433.28 477.37 423.67
United Phosphorus Ltd. NSE 181.75 184.05 180.25 186.35 178.75 187.85 176.45
United Spirits Ltd. NSE 1576.40 1608.43 1550.18 1640.47 1523.97 1666.68 1491.93
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Friday, October 08, 2010 4:04:25 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 

TRADING CALLS ; (3-5 DAYS)
BUY NIFTY ABV 6160 T 6173 6186 6212 6225 SL 6150 & SELL NIFTY BLW 6133 T 6120 6108 6183 6044 SL 6140 
BUY BANKNIFTY ABV 12612 T 12646 12688 12746 12814 SL 12599 & SELL BANKNIFTY BLW 12560 T 12515 12477 12411 12354 
BUY ABB ABV 745 T 755 765 775 SL 735 
BUY TATATPOWER ABV 1452 T 1464 1476 1488 SL 1445 
BUY ZEEL ABV 297 T 300 303 306 SL 295 
BUY TCS ABV 958 T 968 978 988 SL 950 
BUY RELIANCE ABV 1048 T 1058 1068 1078 SL 1042 
BUY ACC ABV 1040 T 1052 1064 1076 SL 1034 
BUY CMC ABV 1955 T 1949 T 1968 1980 1992 
BUY IOBBANK ABV 149 T 151 153 155 SL 147 
BUY PNBBANK ABV 1320 T 1335 1350 1365 SL 1310 
BUY ONGC ABV 1390 T 1405 1420 1435 SL 1382 
BUY ICICIBANK ABV 1142 T 1152 1162 1172 SL 1136 
BUY STERLITE SL 177 T 180 183 186 SL 175 
BUY RELCAP ABV 855 T 865 875 885 SL 840 
BUY PANTALOON ABV 508 T 514 520 526 SL 504 
BUY BEL SL 1820 t 2066 
BUY BIOCON SL 390 T 442 
BUY CROMPTON SL 324 T 366 
BUY EIH SL 134 T 152 
BUY MUNDRAPORT SL 175 T 199 
BUY NMDC SL 280 T 316 
BUY IFCI SL 67 T 76 
BUY RECLTD SL 374 T 424 
BUY TATAPOWER SL 1395 T 1580 
BUY VSNL SL 322 T 364 
SELL ABNOVO SL 900 T 790 
SELL BHUSANSTEEL SL 526 T 465 
BUY ASAINPAINT SL 526 T 465 
COMMODITY CALLS
BUY SILVER 33650 SL 33500 TGT 34000 34200 34400 34600 34800 
BUY GOLD 19350 SL 19250 TGT 19450 19550 19650 19750 19850 19950 
BUY NICKEL 1058 SL 1052 TGT 1068 1078 1088 1098 
BUY LEAD 98 SL 97 TGT 99 100 101 102 103 104 
BUY ZINC 99 SL 98 TGT 100 101 102 103 104 105 
BUY CRUDE 3490 SL 3535 T 3636 3737 3838 3939 
BUY ALUM 103 SL 101 TGT 104 105 106 107 108 109 
BUY COPPER 360 SL 358 TGT 363 366 369 372 375

Index Outlook — Ambling above 20,000


Sensex (20,250.6)

After an exhilarating ride past the 19,000 and 20,000 milestones in September, the Sensex paused and retracted slightly last week. Investors cannot be faulted for cashing in some gains as the benchmark has gained 16 per cent since September. Wavering global markets, fear of stretched valuations in some sectors and the slew of IPOs slated to bombard investors over the ensuing months neutralised the positive impetus provided by continuing overseas inflows.

Choppiness could continue in the week ahead as the second quarter earnings announcements begin. Volumes are reaching frenzied levels in both cash and derivative segment. Average daily turnover in futures and options on NSE last week was Rs 99,000 crore. Such high volumes are typically recorded only in the expiry week.

Data published by exchanges show that foreign institutional investors were net buyers through the week, even on days when the index took a tumble. DIIs, on the other hand, strictly adhered to the negative stance they have adopted over the last two months.

The Sensex made another attempt to get to the 21,000 level last week but it had to retreat from the intra-week peak of 20,707. Oscillators in the daily chart are retreating from the overbought zone following last week's correction. Negative divergence is obvious in the 10-day rate of change oscillator since September 20 implying that though indices are making new multi-month highs, they are in a running correction over the last three weeks.

The medium-term trend in the Sensex continues to be up. As explained earlier, target of the third wave from the low of 15,960 gives us the targets of 20,097, 20,969 and then 21,504. The index can attempt to edge towards the second and third targets unless it records a close below 19,800 in the week ahead.

A five wave move from August 31 low appears to be complete. If the index fails to move strongly below 20,200 next week, it would mean that the last wave of this sequence is extending and can take the index close to 21,000 in the short-term.

But move below 20,200 will mean that there can be sideways movement in the range between 19,800 and 21,000 for a few weeks. Medium-term supports below 19,800 are 19,600 and 19,260. Medium-term trend deciding level is now shifted higher to 18,900. In other words the index needs an emphatic close below this level for investors to begin worrying.

The Sensex is pausing at the key short-term support at 20,200. Upward reversal from this level can take the index higher to 20,665, 20,987 or 21,507 in the days ahead. The short-term view will turn negative only on a close below 19,850. Subsequent supports are 19,603 and 19,263.

Nifty (6,103.4)


The medium-term trend in Nifty continues to be up. As explained earlier, targets for the third wave from the low of 4,786 fall at 6,041 and 6,468. Since the index is currently poised above the first target, it can attempt to move towards the next over the medium term. A sharp decline below 5,960 is required to negate this positive view.

Nifty is currently in a short-term correction. But it tested the key support at 6,061 on Friday. If it manages to hold above this level, the index can progress to 6,227, 6,356 or 6,486 in the days ahead.

Conversely a decline below 6,061 will imply that weakness will prolong to drag the index down to 5,960 or 5,890. Subsequent supports for the index are at 5,785 and 5,682.

Global equity markets whipsawed through the week but most benchmarks managed to hold on to the gains recorded last month. CBOE Volatility Index moved close to its key support at 21 on Friday. As we have been reiterating, close below 20 will mean that the investor sentiment has entered the bull market zone.

Commodity prices continued to surge and the Reuters CRB Index recorded a 26-month high at 551 pushed ahead by surge in precious metals and crude prices.

The strong rally on Tuesday helped Dow record the intra-week peak of 11,032. As explained earlier, target of the third wave from 9,614 trough gives the next target for the index at 11,042. If the rally sustains, next target for the index is 11,463. April peak of 11,258 should also usher in some turbulence in this index.

Benchmarks in other Asian markets such as Korea, Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore continued to power ahead though mild profit taking was observed in Malaysia, Thailand and India. — Lokeshwarri S.K.


Pivotals

Reliance Industries (Rs 1,048.2)

The stock moved up in line with our expectation and achieved our price target of Rs 1,045 in the previous week. It gained 4 per cent backed by good volumes over the past week. Though the stock has breached its 200-day moving average marginally, it is still currently testing medium-term trend deciding levels around Rs 1,050-1,055. Inability to move above this level will pull the stock lower to Rs 1,035. Key supports for the stock are at Rs 1,010 and Rs 985.

The stock has been on a short-term uptrend from its September low of Rs 885. Short-term traders should initiate fresh long positions only if the stock moves above Rs 1,055 with tight stop-loss at Rs 1,035 levels and target of Rs 1,090. Subsequent resistance for the stock is at Rs 1,110.

State Bank of India (Rs 3,244.9)


After recording fresh life-time high of Rs 3,299, the stock slipped and finished the week down by Rs 16. As anticipated, the stock reversed lower from Rs 3,300 levels and reached Rs 3,200 before bouncing higher. The near-term outlook for the stock is one of 'wait and watch'. Thus, short-term traders can stay away from the stock as long as it trades in the range between Rs 3,170 and Rs 3,280. A fall below Rs 3,170 will drag the stock lower to Rs 3,100 or Rs 3,050 levels in the near-term.

Medium-term trend is up for the stock and investors can remain invested with stop-loss at Rs 2,600. Strong close above Rs 3,300 will push the stock higher to Rs 3,350 or Rs 3,370. Medium-term supports for the stock are pegged at Rs 3,000 and Rs 2,880.

Tata Steel (Rs 626.9)

Tata Steel tumbled 6 per cent for the week, experiencing selling interest for the last couple of trading sessions. In our previous review we had mentioned that a fall below Rs 650 will weaken the stock and pull it to Rs 630 or Rs 610. Near-term trend is negative for the stock and reaching Rs 610 is on the cards. Short-term traders can sell the stock while maintaining stop-loss at Rs 640 with target of Rs 610 or Rs 595.

Medium-term investors holding long positions can take profits off the table and be cautious on the stock. Support and resistance for the week are at Rs 575 and Rs 660 respectively.

Infosys Technologies (Rs 3,077.4)


The stock was volatile and moved sideways in the zone between Rs 3,037 and Rs 3,162 this past week, finishing Rs 26 lower. Inability to move beyond Rs 3,115 will pull the stock down to Rs 3,037. Traders with short-term perspective should tread with caution in the stock in the upcoming week.

The stock continues to remain in a medium-term up trend and investors can consider holding the stock with stop-loss at Rs 2,750 levels. Medium-term price target is Rs 3,200. — Yoganand D.


Sizzling Stocks


Indiabulls Financial (Rs 182.9)

The stock witnessed buying interest on October 5 and subsequently its uptrend got accelerated as the stock appreciated by about 27 per cent this week. The last three trading sessions were also accompanied with an increase in volume. This up move has penetrated the stock's short-term resistance at Rs 170 and the stock is trading well above its 50 and 200-day moving averages. It currently faces its next key resistance at about Rs 190. Since February trough of Rs 93, the stock has been on a medium-term uptrend. As long as the stock stays above Rs 140, this medium-term uptrend remains in place.

In the short-term, if the stock fails to surpass the resistance at Rs 190, a pullback to Rs 170 or Rs 155 can happen before it resumes higher. However, a strong up move above Rs 190 will lift the stock to Rs 215 to Rs 220 range in the medium-term.

Biocon (Rs 412.3)

The stock has been on a long-term uptrend from its March 2009 low of Rs 90, forming rising peaks and troughs. Its uptrend got reinforced last week as it jumped up by about 12.7 per cent accompanied with good volumes. It recorded new life-time high of Rs 415.9 on Friday. Medium and short-term trends are also up for the stock.

However, both the daily and weekly relative strength indices are hovering in the overbought territory, signalling cautiousness. The stock is also featuring above the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands. This could imply a near-term correction to its immediate support at Rs 360. Next significant support for the stock is at Rs 330. Following the correction, the stock can move higher to Rs 430 in the medium-term. — Yoganand D.


Stock Strategy — How to play Infosys ahead of Q3 results

K.S. Badri Narayanan

Infosys Technologies (Rs 3,087): The stock has been ruling near all-time high levels. While the overall outlook remains positive at Rs 2,787, the stock is likely to see a narrow movement. The company is coming out with its September quarter number on October 15 (Friday). While the immediate resistance appears at Rs 3,162 (all-time high), Infosys finds support at Rs 2,965 We expect the stock to move in a narrow range ahead of the result.

F&O pointers: The Infosys futures saw accumulation of long position in small quantity on Friday. Option trading suggests a negative bias for the stock as higher strike calls added open interest, while 2,900 put saw unwinding of position.

Strategy: Traders can consider short-straddle strategy by simultaneously selling both put and call of 3,050 strike. They closed on Friday at Rs 69.8 and Rs 105 respectively. The strategy is for traders with a penchant for risk, as the loss in this strategy is unlimited while the maximum profit is limited to the premium collected.

Tata Steel (Rs 626): The stock has witnessed an uninterrupted rally from a low of around Rs 500 but met its resistant at Rs 678 last week and turned weak. The stock is at crucial stage now. Only a close above Rs 739 would confirm the positive outlook for the counter. A close below Rs 619, on the other hand, could change the outlook to negative. In that event, Tata Steel could touch Rs 549. The overall outlook remains positive as long as Tata Steel above Rs 456.

F&O pointers: The derivative trading presents a mixed outlook for the counter. It accumulated fresh short position on Friday. Calls witnessed heavy accumulation of open interest, indicating emergence of call writers. This signals that Tata Steel would face strong resistance. Puts also witnessed marginal accumulation in open interest, suggesting bullish undertone.

Strategy: Traders could consider shorting Tata Steel futures with a tight stop loss at Rs 631. If it slips below Rs 619, shift the stop loss to that level and hold it for an initial target of Rs 587.



Technical Analysis

Nifty has formed "descending triangle" pattern indicating negative breakout

After surging to a new 52 week high of 6,223.40 on Wednesday (6th October, 2010) of current week, Nifty falling continuously, touched weekly low of 6,067 on last day of the week ended. Finally closed at with a loss of 0.65% on w-o-w basis. On daily chart Nifty exhibiting "descending triangle" which is bearish breakout pattern if lower trend line breaks. Price is now near to lower trend line, and moving with in triangle. Nifty next resistance seems at 6,180 while support at 6,080 if nifty breaches 6,180 then we could see rally up to 6,220 on the flip side if the level of 6,040 breaches decisively then we could see fall up to strong support of 6,020.

Further most of the technical momentum indicators are currently suggesting downside. Stochastic is currently moving in neutral zone, on the brink of entering into oversold territory indicating profit booking. RSI is reversing back after touching oversold zone and indicating more correction is due in near term. MACD is crossing 9 day EMA from the above and showing negative divergence, also indicating Nifty is in profit booking zone.

Technical Picks

 
BINANI INDUSTRIES (BUY)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

168.40

Target Price

171/175/180

Stop Loss

164

Support-Resistance

142/185

Comment

  • RSI is at 85 overbought territory showing positive crossover indicating uptrend.
  • Stochastic has also just entered into overbought territory moving upward suggesting further upside.
  • Stock already crossed 34 Day EWMA and expecting to rise further.
  • MACD showing positive divergence.




GMR INDUSTRIES (BUY)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

159.85

Target Price

162/165/170

Stop Loss

155

Support-Resistance

140/175



Comment
  • RSI is moving in overbought territory and expecting to rise further.
  • Stochastic is moving in overbought territory showing positive crossover also indicating upside.
  • Stock is close to 52 week high and expecting it break in next few trading session.
  • Stock next resistance level seems at 175 if its break then stock could rise up to 185.


SUJANA TOWER (BUY)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

129.35

Target Price

132/135/138

Stop Loss

126

Support-Resistance

120/138



Comment
  • RSI is in the overbought zone at 84 levels, likely to show an uptrend.
  • Stochastic is moving in overbought territory showing positive crossover also indicating upside.
  • Stock is trading above 08 day EWMA and not showing any correction.
  • MACD showing positive divergence.

 


KOUTONS (SELL)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

130.8

Target Price

127/123/118

Stop Loss

135

Support-Resistance

115/154



Comment
  • RSI is in the oversold zone at 5 levels, expecting downtrend.
  • Stochastic is moving in oversold territory showing negative crossover also indicating downside.
  • MACD is also showing downtrend and crossing mean line from above.
  • Stock next support level seems at 115 if its break then stock could fall up to 120.

 

  

 

















 

Indian Equity Market


The Week Gone By

Indian markets wrapped the week on a negative note. Indices belled the week on an upbeat note as commodity stocks rose after the World Steel Association said that global steel consumption is forecasted to grow 13.1% to 1.27 billion metric tons in 2010, and 5.3% in 2011. sustained buying by foreign funds also boosted domestic investor sentiment. However, later in the market substantial selling pressure witnessed across sectors due to profit booking at higher level.

Looking Forward

With the Indian Equity market trading near its record high, volatility & nervousness is expected to remain high ahead of the September quarter 2011 results. In Q2FY11, we expect corporates to do well on the revenue front. However, the overall margins are expected to be under pressure due to higher input & interest cost as in the June quarter. Among the sectors, Banking, Metals & Consumer Durables could positively surprise, while FMCG, IT, Cement & Autos are expected to deliver results in line with the expectations. Overall corporate earnings growth is unlikely to match the pace of rise in the stock prices in the near term. So it undergo minor correction before the next upmove begins. Further, for the near term, a section of the market is concerned that the large IPO of state-run Coal India in mid- October 2010 would soak liquidity from the secondary equity markets. The government plans to raise about Rs. 15,000 cr from divestment of 10% stake in Coal India. Any correction, if it takes place, is expected to be short lived in near term & a dip of 7-10% from current levels should be considered as a buying opportunity.


Nifty Top Gainers

Company % Weekly Return

Reliance Com

7.53

JP Associate

6.41

Reliance Capital

5.95


Nifty Top Loser

Company % Weekly Return

Tata Steel

(6.17)

Hindustan Unilever

(4.49)

Idea

(3.81)

 

 

 

 


Daily Movement of Nifty 


Daily Movement of Sensex, Net FIIs & MF investment


Source for FII & MF: Sebi

Weekly return on BSE Sectoral Indices


Fundamental Picks

 
Sterlite Technologies Ltd. (Buy)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

100.20

Target Price

115

Upside (%)

15

52 Week H/L

124.20/51.40

Market Cap

3,627



Ashok Leyland (Buy)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

73.90

Target Price

83.00

Upside (%)

12%

52 Week H/L

79.00/39.60

Market Cap

9,831.00





Weekly Price Movement of GDR

Security Name

Price (USD)
as on 07-10-10

% change
from 30-09-10

L&T

46.25

1.58

RIL

46.71

4.73

SBI

146.00

1.88



Sterlite Technologies is in the business of power transmission and telecom products & solutions, with a share of 45% in the domestic fibre optic cables market and among the top 5 global players The company is aggressively expanding its manufacturing capacity, and is likely to become one of the largest power conductor manufacturer globally by the end of FY11 and among the top 3 manufacturers of fibre optic cables By FY12. The total capex for the expansion is around Rs 390 crore which will be funded through internal accruals. The company operates in a niche technology area and has a portfolio of 26 patents in India and abroad. Moreover, STL's revenues have grown at 27% CAGR in FY07-FY10 to Rs 2,432 crore.

 


Ashok Leyland is India's second-largest commercial vehicle manufacturer with a 27% market share in M&HCVs. Commencement of Uttarakhand plant would offer dual advantages of fiscal benefits- (i) strengthening presence in the northern and eastern markets of India (ii) the production from the tax-free plant would be scaled up from 30,000 units in FY11 to 50,000 units in FY12. Further, the company is looking at a capex of around Rs. 2,000 crore in the next two years, which includes spends on joint ventures. On the back of 109% yoy jump in volumes from Apr-Sep10, the company is expected to post robust growth in volume in FY11. N order to prtect its margin , company hass increased the prices prices by 3% effective 1st October across all models. A further 3% hike would be passed on account of switchover to the new emission standards. At the CMP of Rs 73.90, the stock is trading at P/E multiple of 20.06x (based on TTM EPS) less than the average industry PE multiple of around 32x.


Weekly Price Movement of ADR


Security Name Price (USD)
as on 07-10-10
% change
from 30-09-10
ICICI bank

51.09

2.49

Infosys

68.85

2.29

MTNL

2.89

3.21

Rediff

4.91

(9.58)

Sify

2.42

(18.24)


Economy

Indicators Latest Previous Change
Investment Deposit Ratio (%)

31.28 (Sep 24)

31.10 (Sep 10)

Credit Deposit Ratio (%)

72.70 (Sep 24)

72.12 (Sep 10)

Money Supply (%)

14.70 (Sep 24)

15.20 (Sep 10)

Bank Credit (%)

19.00 (Sep 24)

19.80 (Sep 10)

Aggregate Deposits (%)

14.30 (Sep 24)

14.80 (Sep 10)

Forex Reserves USD bn

294.15 (Oct 01)

291.59 (Sep 24)


Global Equity Markets

US stocks higher during the week (till Thursday) as the prospects of the Federal Reserve bringing back its quantitative easing measures and upbeat retails sales figures. Foreign monetary policy was also in focus during the week with Bank of Japan cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.0-0.1% from 0.1%. Separately, the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised analysts by holding its interest rate at 4.50%. Further, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks in Rhode Island Monday night, which made quite clear the Fed's next move would be to expand quantitative easing. Moreover, sentiments were boosted after Thomson Reuters reported that its index of 28 major retailers posted an increase of 2.8% in sales in September. On economic front, investors were presented with encouraging economic data, which was fuelled the positive sentiments in the market. Looking ahead to next week, all eyes will be on September's employment situation report and wholesale trade data. Economists expect employment to come in roughly flat following the loss of 54,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 9.7% from 9.6%.

Asian markets traded higher during the week. Japan's Nikkei 225 soared after Japan's central bank cut its benchmark interest rates to 0.0-0.1% from 0.1% and the government of Japan approved an additional stimulus of USD 61.3 billion to boost the fragile economy. This budget was much higher than the figure that was initially planned. Chinese stock markets surged by more than 3% as trading resumed after a week-long National Day holiday. Investors were boosted by rising global prices of resources including oil and minerals and better than expected purchasing managers index increased to 61.7 in September from 60.1 in August. 

European markets gained during the week. Markets started the week on subdued note extending last weeks losing streak as weaker economic data from US dampened investors sentiments. However, a stimulus pledge from the Bank of Japan to spur the economy reassured investors. Further, unexpected fall in US jobless claim extended gains in the markets. Looking ahead, markets are expecting that the policymakers in the Britain may further boost markets by more quantitative easing following Bank of Japan's move. Though, the onset of earning seasons could influence markets movement, the other economic data were also be watched carefully. There's trade balance figures and jobless claims data in the United Kingdom due next week, plus the European Central Bank's monthly report and European Union trade balance figures. Also, economic data from US will be closely watched.

Weekly return on major Global Indices

Data of US and European markets taken from Sept 30 to Oct 07, 2010
Data of Asian markets taken from Oct 01 to Oct 08, 2010 

Weekly Change in the Composites of S&P 500
Industry

Adj. Mkt. Cap 
as on

07-10-10

Adj. Mkt. Capas on
30-09-10


Change

Energy

11,64,367 

11,30,849 

2.96 

Materials

3,74,543 

3,74,163 

0.10 

Industrials

11,39,746 

11,15,473 

2.18 

Cons Disc

10,95,296 

10,77,417 

1.66 

Cons Staples

11,72,482 

11,66,335 

0.53 

Health Care

12,10,906 

12,03,633 

0.60 

Financials

16,55,728 

16,09,457 

2.87 

Info Tech

19,60,147 

19,46,892 

0.68 

Telecom Services

3,34,084 

3,35,084 

(0.30)

Utilities

3,81,157 

3,76,986 

1.11 


Key Events

Global Key Events

  • US pending home sales increased more than expected in the month of August. The index rose by 4.3% in August following a revised 5% increase in July compared to the 5.2% increase originally reported for the previous month.

  • US Factory orders showed a modest decrease in the month of August by 0.5% in August following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in July compared to the 0.1% increase originally reported for the previous month.

  • US Initial jobless claims dropped by 11,000 to 4,45,000 in the week ended October 02, as against 4,53,000 in the previous week which was below expectations. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance decreased and those getting extended payments jumped.

  • Factory price inflation in the Eurozone slowed in August as per the expectations, suggesting muted inflationary pressures in the 16-nation economy. Industrial producer prices excluding construction rose 3.6% in August from a year earlier. It was slower than the 4% increase in the previous month.

  • Growth of business activity in the Eurozone private sector decelerated in September. The final composite output index dropped less than initially estimated to 54.1 from 56.2 in August.

  • Bank of Japan in its policy meeting announced to lower the borrowing cost to a range between 0.0% and 0.1%.

  • The government of Japan approved an additional stimulus of USD 61.3 billion to boost the fragile economy. This budget was much higher than the figure that was initially planned.

Domestic Key Events

  • Food inflation fell marginally to 16.24% for the week ended September 25, on slight easing of supply side pressures, even as prices of cereals, fruits, select vegetables and milk remained high. After rising for the fifth straight week, food inflation declined by 20 percentage points during the week. The inflation figures were at 16.44% for the week ended September 18.  

  • India's Export-Import Bank has secured a USD 150 million international loan to help expand Indian exporters' access to finance, including for small and medium enterprises, and support their exports to Africa. USD 75 million have been provided by IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, and the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd each.

  • The International Monetary Fund raised its India growth forecast for 2010, citing robust industrial output and strong macro-economic indicators, but warned that global economic recovery remained fragile. Indian economy is likely to expand 9.7% this year, up from the July forecast of 9.4%.
  • The National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) have decided to implement 'pre-market call auctions' which is a special 15-minute trading window starting at 9:00 am from October 18. This also means that all other segments, including derivatives and non-index stocks, will trade only at 9:15 am.

  • Business activity in the Indian services sector expanded at a considerably slower pace in September, with the index falling to a 10-month low mainly due to weakness in incoming new business. The HSBC Markit Business Activity Index, based on a survey of 400 firms, saw its third consecutive fall, easing to 55.6 from 59.3 the previous month.

  • Sesa Goa's open offer for acquiring up to 20% shares in Cairn India may not open on October11 as planned earlier, as market regulator SEBI is yet to approve the offer. London-listed Vedanta Resources is acquiring 40 to 51% stake of UK's Cairn Energy Plc for USD 8.48 billion.

Derivatives

 

  • Nifty ended the week on a negative note at 6,103.45 mark, losing 0.65%. The Nifty October future ended at 6,142.70 with premium of 39.25 points. If we look at the derivatives data we can see that Nifty future prices ended in the negative territory along with decline in open interest, this is an indication of closure of long positions. For the coming week, Nifty may continue to face resistance at higher levels of 6,180-6,225 whereas on the downside support is seen at 5,980-6,050 levels. 


  • During the week, there was significant short accumulation of open interest in OTM Call options. most of the open interest accretion witnessed in the range of 5,700 to 6,100 put, while, on the flip side, highest open interest was build up in the range of 6,200 and 6,400 Calls. . 


  • The Volatility Index (VIX) declined marginally and closed to 21.40%. Market participants should be watchful at current levels as any up move in volatility may trigger downsides in the markets. Volatility has a strong inverse correlation with markets.


  • The put-call ratio of open interest declined throughout the week, finally closing high at 0.87 levels. The options open interest remained mixed as the week progressed. The options concentration has shifted to the 6,000-strike put option. 


  • The CNX IT index ended the week at 6,710.65 marks losing 0.72%. The CNX IT Futures prices declined along with decline in the open interest this is an indication of closure of long position and fresh short position is being built up at higher level. For the coming week, immediate support for the Index is seen in the range of 6,500-6,550 mark, whereas on the upside resistance is seen at 6,850- 6,900 levels.


  • During the week the Bank Nifty Index ended on a negative note and fell by 0.66% to 12,473.40. If we look at the derivatives desk we can see that the bank Nifty futures prices decreased along with decline in open interest, this is an indication of his is an indication of closure of long position and fresh short position is being built up at higher level. For the coming week Bank Nifty support is seen in the range of 12,000-11,800 levels whereas on the upside stiff resistance would be faced at 12,500-12,700 levels.


  • FIIs were net seller in index futures to the tune of Rs. 1,221.67 crore while in stock future they were net seller of 4,206.29 crore, indicating down trend in markets . Further, in the index options FII were net buyer of 4,066.70 crore .


  • The Nifty is expected to remain in the range of 5,950-6,225 levels and only a breach below this range will push the index to lower levels. The move may remain mixed, with selling pressure near 6,250 levels. The index may find intermediate support around 6,050 levels, and a round of short covering from that level cannot be ruled out. Any instability on the global front will bring about selling pressure from current levels. A breach of 6,050 levels will take the Nifty down towards 5,850 levels.
 Open Interest in Nifty Future vis-à-vis Nifty 



Most Active Contracts


Put-Call Ratio


Volatility Index

FIIs Cumulative trailing 5 day's data
Particulars Buy Sell Net
Index Futures
7,495.58 
8,717.26 
(1,221.67)
Index Options
21,198.69 
17,131.99 
4,066.70 
Stock Futures
7,804.54 
12,010.83 
(4,206.29)
Stock Options
2,475.25 
2,556.80 
(81.55)
From October 01 to till October 07 (Source: NSE)
Debt
  • Call money rates eased during the week and declined below RBI's repo rate as demand for loan was low after banks had covered more than their mandated needs earlier this fortnight.







  • For the fifth consecutive week, Indian debt market witnessed positive foreign funds inflow as high yields attracted the foreign funds. FIIs invested Rs 1,018.8 crore in the Indian debt market compared to 1,752.9 crore buying in the previous week. Meanwhile, MFs continued to be net buyer in the debt market, with Rs 11,323.7 crore buying compared to Rs 3,760.3 crore of buying in the previous week.









  • Bond prices remained flat as tight liquidity condition in the market capped decline on rate hike worries. The liquidity in the system remains tight post advance tax outgo. Further, there are concerns on liquidity front as a strong equity issuance pipeline which may cloak Rs 36,000 crore over the next six months might soak liquidity from the markets. State-run Coal India is coming out with a Rs 12,000 crore IPO in mid-October 2010 which might impact liquidity. However, there are also some optimism that pick up in government spending may ease the situation to some extent. The prices fell slightly after RBI deputy governor Subir Gokarn expressed concern about inflation that he said persists well above RBI's comfort zone and added the central bank was near to an end of its policy normalising. He also added that India will respond to a surge in capital inflows if there are signs of disruption. Further, a flattish food inflation figure kept investors away from taking fresh positions.



  • Bond are expected to stay flat as investors kept eye on key economic data due next week. Industrial output data for August will be announced on Tuesday while inflation data for September will be released on Thursday. Meanwhile, we believe the concerns on liquidity front might be nuteralised from apprehension over rate hike.




  • During the week, reverse repo transaction under RBI's Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) remained nil while Repo transaction stood at Rs 80,380 crore. On October 01, 2010, Government of India auctioned 7.17% CG2015 worth Rs 4,000 crore, 8.08% CG2022 worth Rs 4,000 crore and 8.26% CG2027 worth Rs 3,000 crore. On October 05, 2010, four State Governments auctioned their 10-year State Development Loans (SDLs) for an aggregate amount of Rs 2,100. On October 04, 2010, Government of India announced the sale of 7.99% CG2017 worth Rs 4,000 crore, 8.13% CG2022 worth Rs 4,000 crore and 8.30% CG2040 worth Rs 3,000 crore to be held on October 08, 2010. On October 06, 2010, RBI auctioned 91-day Treasury Bills worth Rs 4,000 crore and 364-day Treasury Bills worth Rs 2,000 crore.




  • In the financial year 2010-11, Government of India (GOI) has planned to borrow as much as Rs. 4,57,143 crore. Till October 01, 2010, the government has completed 68.35% of the gross borrowing target for the current year. The government has scheduled Rs 33,000 crore borrowing for the next 3 weeks.

 

 Call Rates
Date Rate (%)

1-Oct

6.26

4-Oct

6.11

5-Oct

6.01

6-Oct

5.89

7-Oct

5.87


FIIs & MFs investment in Debt Market

Period
FIIs
Net Investment
(Rs. Crore)
MFs
Net Investment
(Rs. Crore)

1-Oct

(1,437.3)

1,540.6 

4-Oct

282.4 

3,326.9 

5-Oct

872.5 

3,080.8 

6-Oct

(128.7)

3,375.4 

7-Oct

1,429.9 

This week

1,018.8 

11,323.7 

This Month

1,018.8 

11,323.7 

 (Source: SEBI)

Bond Yield (7.80% CG 2020)
Date LTP (Rs.) YTM (%)

1-Oct

99.45

7.8877

4-Oct

99.09

7.9245

5-Oct

99.09

7.9260

6-Oct

99.08

7.9313

7-Oct

99.16

7.9265

 
Spread


Liquidity Adjustment Facility
Date Reverse Repo
(Rs. Crore)
Repo
(Rs. Crore)

1-Oct

0

45,700

4-Oct

0

27,470

5-Oct

0

890

6-Oct

0

2,615

7-Oct

0

3,705

This week

80,380 

This Month

80,380 


 GoI borrowing Program - 2010-11
Particulars
(Rs. Cr.)

Budgeted Borrowings 

4,57,143 

Gross Borrowing Completed

3,12,439 

Dated Securities 

2,95,000 

364 Day T-Bills 

17,439 

% Completed

68.35 

Net Borrowing till date

2,10,334 

Government borrowing calender (Next four auctions)
Period Maturity 5-9 yrs Maturity 10-14 yrs Maturity 15-19 yrs 20 yrs and  above Total

Oct. 11-Oct. 15

Rs 40-50 bn

Rs 40-50 bn

Rs 20-30 bn

-

Rs 110 bn

Oct. 18-Oct. 22

Rs 40-50 bn

Rs 40-50 bn

-

Rs 20-30 bn

Rs 110 bn

Nov. 1-Nov. 5

Rs 40-50 bn

Rs 40-50 bn

Rs 20-30 bn

-

Rs 110 bn

Nov. 8-Nov. 12

Rs 40-50 bn

Rs 40-50 bn

-

Rs 20-30 bn

Rs 110 bn


Commodity
Crude oil prices pared early gains and started the week on a lower note. Prices dropped on the concerns regarding the euro zone economy due to which dollar strengthened. Supply concerns also led the crude prices lower. But, the fall in the crude prices proved short lived and prices began to rise in tandem with the world equities. Prices also rallied up as Japan went for an interest rate cut and the dollar turned weak. High level of volatility was seen in the crude prices during the week but they managed to stay in green despite the weekly inventory report which showed an increase of 3 mn barrels in the crude inventories for the week ended 1 October. Finally, a drop was seen towards the end of the week as dollar turned strong ahead of the crucial job report. A modest pick of 1.36% in the international market and 0.89% in the domestic market on a w-o-w basis was seen in the crude prices. Crude oil prices are likely to be subdued in the coming week as the crude inventories increased by huge ammount while fuel too consumption declined.

Gold prices started the week's trade on a lower note. The precious metal shed its gain initially as dollar gained strength. But, immediately after the yellow metal rallied to touch record highs. Prices shone as Japan went for an interest rate cut and the dollar turned weak. Gold gained as investors turned towards the precious metal as investment alternative. Moreover, traders anticipated that Fed will pour more money to revive the overall economy. Some weakness was seen in the gold prices towards the end of the week. The domestic gold prices also followed the international trends. Moreover, gold prices rallied back home as rupee appreciated. High gold prices curbed some demand but investment remained robust. Finally, the gold prices registered strong gains of 2.91% and 2.08% in the international and domestic markets respectively on w-o-w basis. Gold prices are likely scale fresh highs in the coming week on demand for an alternative to currencies. The US dollar is on a weak trend which may further help the gold prices to rally. Domestic gold prices are also likely to stay strong amidst the ongoing festivities.

 
Weekly change in Crude prices per Barrel
  07-Oct 30-Sep Change (%)
Intl Crude Oil Prices (USD)

83.43

82.31

1.36

Domestic Price (Rs)

3,694.82

3,662.31

0.89



Inventories(Weekly Change)
Week ended Change Total Inventory

01-Oct-10

3.00 mn barrels

360.9 mn barrels





Weekly change in Gold prices in Rs/10gms

  01-Oct 30-Sep Change (%)
London pm fix(USD/troyoz)

1,345.00

1,307.00

2.91

Mumbai (Rs/10gms)

19,583.72

19,185.00

2.08


Forex

Rupee strengthened to highest level in two years aginst the green back on the back of continued foreign funds inflow. Chasing relatively higher potential return from robust Indian economy foreign funds continued to pour money in the domestic capital markets. Further, banks and exporters choose to trim their dollar holding with a that the foreign investor will continue to invested in the domestic markets. However, the domestic currency continued its loosing streak against Euro as the common European currency continue to recover from its sharp losses after the sovereign debt crisis.

INR/ 08-Oct 01-Oct %Change
USD

44.38

44.68

0.67 

EURO

61.80

60.96

(1.38)

YEN

53.87

53.53

(0.64)

 

INR vs. USD and Euro







Foreign investors buy into IPOs eyeing listing gains

Domestic institutions such as SBI, SBI Life Insurance follow suit.


K. S. Badri Narayanan

Chennai, Oct. 9

Retail investors are not the only ones with an eye on ultra short-term gains when subscribing to initial public offerings.

Foreign institutional investors, often considered to be investing with a long-term perspective, have also been offloading shares on listing day.

Since August, shares of 13 companies have been listed. Many of them, such as Prakash Steelage, Indosolar, Orient Green Power and Microsec Financial Services, saw some heavy offloading by FIIs, according to data on bulk deals furnished by stock exchanges.

The FIIs acquired these stocks through IPO allotment is clear from the fact that their names did not figure in the offer document under the shareholding pattern.

Aggressive pricing

According to analysts, aggressive pricing of an IPO is one of the reasons for investors booking profits on Day 1 itself.

Mr Arun Kejriwal of KRIS Securities said the volume of stocks delivered for transfer indicates that they account for 60 per cent of the total outstanding shares. This, in his view, indicates FII offloading.

"As the non-QIB (qualified institutional buyer) portion cannot exceed 40 per cent (in an IPO), it is obvious that the selling is coming from big institutional investors."

Mr Jagannadham Thunuguntla of SMC Securities said, "They are flipping the (IPO) stocks instead of investing. As no one knows how long this current trend will sustain, they are making listing gains before a rough patch re-emerges in the equity market."

According to Mr Kejriwal, "There are some big institutions which sell these shares in the first five minutes of trading itself,".

Foreign institutional investors that sold shares include Goldman Sachs (in Orient Green Power), Citigroup Global Markets (in Indosolar), Merrill Lynch (in Microsec) and Credit Suisse (in Tirupati Inks, Microsec Finance, Indosolar, and Gujarat Pipavav).

Most of the selling by foreign institutional investors was through Mauritian investment accounts. However, domestic institutions too have not been quiet. State Bank of India and SBI Life Insurance sold shares of Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd on the listing day itself.

FIIs are seen as being largely responsible for the current stock market rally that propelled the BSE Sensex to around 21,000.



52-Week blockbuster: AEGIS LOGISTICS


In the business of providing supply chain management services to the oil and gas liquid fuels market, Aegis Logistics has benefitted significantly from the turning fortunes of the oil, gas and chemicals industry.

The only listed player in this space, the stock has delivered a whopping 355 per cent over the year. Much of that however was led by PE re-rating, as its trailing twelve months per share earnings grew just by over 18 per cent (Rs 14.4 now) in the same period.

Expansion of handling capacities at its existing sites in Mumbai, likely acquisition of new sites along the coastline and lack of any significant competition in its business may have influenced the re-rating to a certain extent.

The bulk of it, however, seems to have come on the back of the company's presence in autogas retailing (sub-segment of gas division). With the government partially deregulating oil prices, the cost advantages of auto LPG have come to the fore.

It is in this regard that Aegis' 68 retail outlets and plans to increase it to 300 in the coming years puts it in a sweet spot. It has also tied up with Essar Oil to further increase in retail footprint.

— Srividhya Sivakumar


Coal India IPO price on Oct 12?

Our Bureau (businessline)

Kolkata, Oct. 9

The price band of the Coal India Ltd IPO will be determined by the Empowered Group of Ministers (E-GoM) during its scheduled meeting on October 12.

According to sources, the issue is scheduled to hit the market on October 18. The final preparation of the IPO and road-shows in India will happen once the CIL Chairman, Mr Partha S. Bhattacharyya, returns (on Saturday) from the UK and the US where he has been participating in roadshows in the past week.

He will leave for Singapore on October 15 for the last overseas road show.


Heard in the Studio


A flurry of conversations took place in the studio on the markets. Here is a slice.

Prayag: We have finally hit the ground running on the Commonwealth Games, after all the controversies and negativities surrounding the event.

Ayush: Yeah, that's true; the glitz accompanying the opening ceremony was spellbinding. Speaking of glitz, it was amusing to read that Shah Rukh Khan claims himself to be a poor businessman!

Kaustubh: For a man minting millions from brand endorsements, it seems strange. Perhaps, he is talking about running new businesses — his KKR Team or Red Chillies.

Ayush: But the market seems to have given a thumbs-up to two of the five debutants at the exchanges.

Prayag: Man, what a rousing reception Career Point Infosystems got – 112 per cent gains on opening day! No company in recent memory seems to have captured the imagination of investors as this one has, even at the cost of valuations reaching boiling points!

Kaustubh: Eros International too had a decent listing, not by any means spectacular. But Orient Green Power and Ramky Infra, turned out to be a damp squib going by deep cuts they had at the bourses on listing day. The renewable energy and the infrastructure stories, it seems, would be bought only at a cheaper price.

Ayush: But did you guys notice that FIIs are pumping in money like there is no tomorrow, $20 billion at last count for the year.

Kaustubh: Yeah, they are the most bankable when it comes to driving markets or bubbles! This is pushing the rupee higher against the dollar to Rs 44 levels. Now that does not seem to worry the RBI, though IT companies would be having sleepless nights.

Prayag: Speaking of the RBI, industrial houses have made a strong pitch for starting banks to the reserve bank. But just a dialogue is taking place now, no serious action expected.

Ayush: The news on the inflation front is still far from encouraging. At 16.24 per cent, it has fallen very little. It remains to be seen if the RBI will raise rates once again.

Prayag: SBI, Bank of Baroda and several other banks have started increasing their deposit rates, albeit on select tenures. That should hopefully bring relief to customers hoping for safety and better yields on their investments.

Kaustubh: Tata Motors is once again on a fund-raising spree. The company is looking to raise $750 million through a QIP.

Ayush: What is interesting about the issue is that, $200 million is going to be raised by ordinary shares, while $550 million would be raked in through DVRs. The DVR is trading at Rs 795 is at a 30 per cent discount to the ordinary shares of Tata Motors. Now that should get the investors interested.

Prayag: The earnings season is around the corner and would be very keenly followed and could determine the continuance of the current bull-run, in light of concerns on higher valuations.

Kaustubh: Brokerages and FIIs are giving targets of anything in the 21000-25000 range for the Sensex over the next 3-6 months . If these levels are indeed breached, it has to be backed by strong earnings growth. But hey, with the festive season around, let us hope companies are able to give plenty of goodies to investors in the form of robust earnings numbers.

K. VENKATASUBRAMANIAN

Making MF transfers easy — Nominee for your funds


FUND PRIMER

Registering a nomination facilitates easy transfer of funds to the nominee on the demise of the investor.


What is a Nomination?

An investor can nominate a person(s) called nominee(s) to whom his/her Mutual Fund Units will be transferred on his / her demise.

Mutual Fund units get transferred to the nominee registered in the folio on the demise of the Investor.

What are the benefits of registering a nomination?

Registering a nomination facilitates easy transfer of funds to the nominee(s) on the demise of the investor. In the absence of the nominee, a claimant would have to produce a host of documents like a Will, Legal Heir-ship Certificate, No-objection Certificate from other legal heirs etc. to get the units transferred. The process is simple if a nominee is registered in the folio.

How can an investor make a nomination?

Nomination can be registered at the time of purchasing the units. While filling in the application form, there is a provision to fill in the nomination details.

Alternatively, an investor may register a nomination later through a form which may be submitted with relevant particulars of the nominee.

The forms are available on the mutual fund websites.

Investors may also request the registrar and transfer agent to send a form.

Can an investor make multiple nominations?

Yes! An investor may make up to three nominations and even specify the percentage of the amounts that will go to each nominee.

If the percentage is not specified, equal shares will go to the nominees.

Can a minor be a nominee?

Yes! A minor can be a nominee. However the guardian will have to be specified in the nomination form.

Can a nomination be changed?

A nomination can be changed and even cancelled. The relevant form should be filled and submitted to the Registrar or Mutual Fund Office.

If an investor has different schemes in a folio, will all units of all schemes be transferred to the nominee?

A nomination is at folio level and all units in the folio will be transferred to the nominee(s).

If an investor makes a further investment in the same folio, the nomination is applicable to the new units also.

Who can nominate and who is eligible to be a nominee?

Nominations can be made only by individuals applying for / holding units on their own behalf, singly or jointly.

Non-individuals, including societies, trusts, body corporates, partnership firms, the karta of an HUF, and the holder of a power of attorney (POA) cannot nominate.

Nomination can be in favour of individuals, including minors, the Central Government, State Government, a local authority, any person designated by virtue of his office or a religious or charitable trust.

A non-resident Indian can be a nominee, subject to the exchange control regulations in force from time to time.

52-Week flop: ABAN OFFSHORE


When Aban Offshore's deepwater rig Aban Pearl sunk like a stone off the Venezulean waters in mid-May this year, the company's prospects looked rather bleak. The sunken rig was a cash-cow (with an operating day rate above $350,000) for the beleaguered company, trying to deleverage its heavily debt-laden balance sheet (around $3 billion).

The stock plunged more than 18 per cent on the day of the announcement. This was followed by sustained selling over the next week and the stock ended up losing a cumulative 33 per cent, before the bleeding stemmed.

In hindsight, the market reaction seemed overdone, given that the rig had been insured for $240 million of which the company finally received $235 million. Nevertheless, loss of profits was not insured, and the company's endeavours to restart the contract continue.

The positive news about insurance and also the deployment of another idle rig, Aban Abraham, has seen the stock recoup some losses since then. However, from a year-long perspective, concerns about debt burden and the rig sinking have taken their toll, and the stock is down almost 46 per cent.

— Anand Kalyanaraman


Day 1 gains petering out

Aarati Krishnan

BL Research Bureau

The trend of initial public offerings (IPOs) delivering sure-shot short-term gains seems to be petering out.

Stocks that listed in the first 10 days of October have struggled to close above their offer price on their first trading day.

In contrast, most IPO stocks that made their debut in August and September managed to deliver gains on listing day.

Faltering on listing

Of the seven stocks that listed this month, four slumped below their offer price on listing day while two made marginal gains.

Ramky Infrastructure ended its listing day October 8, 14 per cent below its offer price, after opening strongly. Orient Green Power and Microsec Financial Services too closed their first trading day 5-6 per cent below their issue prices. The only recent issuer that got off to a roaring start is Career Point Infosystems, with a 102 per cent gain on listing day.

Bearing on response

The lower listing gains on the recent crop of IPOs may have a bearing on the retail subscriptions for forthcoming offers.

Issuers including the mammoth Coal India and several realty companies such as Emaar MGF and Prestige Estates Projects are queued up to raise IPO money over the coming weeks.

Market participants feel that retail response to IPOs has picked up mainly because investors, who missed out on rallying stock prices in the secondary market, are keen to pocket listing gains by subscribing to new offers. Dwindling listing gains may prompt them to reconsider this strategy, they say.

Buy / Sell (Oct 08, 2010)
 BuySell Net
DII923.601925.61 -1002.01
FII3490.062903.84 +586.22


*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES. 

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381