Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Market Outlook 19th Oct 2010

 Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks: 
Orchid Chem, ABG Ship, Vijaya Bank, Chambal Fert, Bhushan Steel, Petronet, Ibrealest, Rel Media, Federal Bank & Bank of Baroda. 
And this is list of 10 Weak stocks
GVKPIL, V-18, BPCL, IVRCL Infra, Praj Ind, Bharti Airtel, BGR Energy, GMR Infra, Finan Tech & Dabur.
The daily trend of nifty is in Uptrend

PETRONET (BUY)

  • RSI is moving in over bought territory at 69 showing positive crossover.
  • Stochastic is moving in overbought territory showing positive crossover also indicating upside.
  • Stock already crossed 34 Day EWMA and expecting to rise further.
  • MACD showing positive divergence.
CMPBuy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

124.65

BUY

126/128/131

 121

118/135

BINANI INDUSTRIES (SELL)

  • RSI is at 84 level overbought territory an on brink of entering into negative crossover.
  • Stochastic is hovering in overbought showing negative crossover suggesting downside.
  • Stock next support level seems at 204 if its break then stock could fall up to 190.
  • Wide correction is expected.
  • The stock has been rising steeply over the past few sessions and the correction in it is long overdue.
CMPBuy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

224.5

SELL

222/219/215

 228

220/235


  • Supp / Resis SPOT/ CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 6132.336188.72 6262.33
Support 6002.335928.72 5872.33
Sensex Resistance 20308.68 20448.48 20667.56
Support 19949.80 19730.72 19590.92

TRADING CALLS - TRADE WITH STRICT STOPLOSS 
BUY BIOCON SL 390 T 440 
BUY ESSAROIL SL 138 T 156 
BUY GSPL SL 113 T 128 
BUY LNT SL 1958 T 2220 
SELL CHAMBLEFERTI SL 89 T 79 
SELL HDFC SL 745 T 675 
SELL MMTC SL 1357 T 1250 
SELL ULTRATECH SL 1165 T 1065 
BUY IBREAL SL 196 T 220 
BUY TELCO SL 1130 T 1230 
SELL HPCL SL 515 T 475 
SELL SEBIBANK SL 3280 T 3150 3090 
BUY CANBANK SL 607 T 660 690 
BUY PNB SL 1290 T 1318 1330 
BUY SESAGAO SL 364 T 380 390 
BUY DLF SL 370 T 388 393 
BUY HDFC SL 705 T 730 740 
BUY RELINFRA SL 1058 T 1088 1094 
BUY RELCAP SL 819 T 850 860 
BUY AXISBANK SL 1453 T 1490 1499 
BUY SBIBANK SL 3130 T 3190 3203 
BUY DRREDDY ABV 1615 T 1640 SL 1605 
BUY YESBANK ABV 355 T 365 SL 350 
SELL TECHM BLW 700 T 685 SL 708 
SELL BHARTI BLW 328 T 316 SL 331

SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS IN CASH MARKET FOR INTRADAY TRADING
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
ABG Shipyard Ltd. NSE 316.15 324.57 303.02 332.98 289.88 346.12 281.47
Bank of Baroda NSE 987.00 1003.67 959.67 1020.33 932.33 1047.67 915.67
Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1244.64 1255.04 1227.19 1265.45 1209.75 1282.89 1199.34
BGR Energy Systems Ltd. NSE 733.50 745.97 720.07 758.43 706.63 771.87 694.17
Bharat Electronics Ltd. NSE 1777.10 1796.40 1741.40 1815.70 1705.70 1851.40 1686.40
Bharat Forge Ltd. NSE 367.95 377.92 360.07 387.88 352.18 395.77 342.22
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. NSE 2520.20 2541.13 2493.13 2562.07 2466.07 2589.13 2445.13
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. NSE 699.20 707.08 693.28 714.97 687.37 720.88 679.48
Bharati Shipyard Ltd. NSE 231.80 238.38 226.38 244.97 220.97 250.38 214.38
Bharti Airtel Ltd. NSE 327.25 333.67 322.17 340.08 317.08 345.17 310.67
Bhushan Steel Ltd. NSE 515.60 526.17 497.52 536.73 479.43 554.82 468.87
Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. NSE 85.95 91.23 82.93 96.52 79.92 99.53 74.63
Dabur India Ltd. NSE 101.05 102.73 100.03 104.42 99.02 105.43 97.33
Federal Bank Ltd. NSE 437.80 443.83 427.88 449.87 417.97 459.78 411.93
Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. NSE 1173.95 1187.97 1152.97 1201.98 1131.98 1222.97 1117.97
GMR Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 54.95 57.23 53.43 59.52 51.92 61.03 49.63
GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 42.55 43.62 41.87 44.68 41.18 45.37 40.12
India Cements Ltd. NSE 115.15 118.77 111.57 122.38 107.98 125.97 104.37
India Foils Ltd. NSE 6.20 6.43 5.93 6.67 5.67 6.93 5.43
India Glycols Ltd. NSE 177.50 186.63 168.68 195.77 159.87 204.58 150.73
India Infoline Ltd. NSE 115.60 117.17 113.12 118.73 110.63 121.22 109.07
Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd. NSE 185.25 192.80 176.85 200.35 168.45 208.75 160.90
Indiabulls Power Ltd. NSE 27.85 28.12 27.57 28.38 27.28 28.67 27.02
Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd. NSE 206.10 211.93 195.13 217.77 184.17 228.73 178.33
Indiabulls Securities Ltd. NSE 28.70 29.27 28.12 29.83 27.53 30.42 26.97
Indian Bank NSE 299.80 306.48 288.63 313.17 277.47 324.33 270.78
Indian Hotels Company Ltd. NSE 100.30 101.53 99.03 102.77 97.77 104.03 96.53
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. NSE 406.00 410.63 402.68 415.27 399.37 418.58 394.73
Indian Overseas Bank NSE 159.40 162.32 154.77 165.23 150.13 169.87 147.22
IVRCL Assets & Holdings Ltd. NSE 115.70 117.30 114.55 118.90 113.40 120.05 111.80
IVRCL Infrastructure & Projects Ltd. NSE 152.25 155.02 150.27 157.78 148.28 159.77 145.52
NSE Index NSE 6075.95 6132.33 6002.33 6188.72 5928.72 6262.33 5872.33
Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. NSE 302.25 316.03 293.43 329.82 284.62 338.63 270.83
Petronet LNG Ltd. NSE 124.65 129.33 116.03 134.02 107.42 142.63 102.73
Praj Industries Ltd. NSE 71.25 72.15 70.25 73.05 69.25 74.05 68.35
Reliance Capital Ltd. NSE 839.50 849.57 824.87 859.63 810.23 874.27 800.17
Reliance Communications Ltd. NSE 175.90 177.75 173.20 179.60 170.50 182.30 168.65
Reliance Industrial InfraStructure Ltd. NSE 874.35 888.07 862.57 901.78 850.78 913.57 837.07
Reliance Industries Ltd. NSE 1047.45 1063.85 1032.15 1080.25 1016.85 1095.55 1000.45
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 1074.35 1111.57 1043.57 1148.78 1012.78 1179.57 975.57
Reliance Natural Resources Ltd. NSE 39.95 40.42 39.37 40.88 38.78 41.47 38.32
Reliance Power Ltd. NSE 161.55 163.47 159.17 165.38 156.78 167.77 154.87
Religare Enterprises Ltd. NSE 464.15 471.88 458.33 479.62 452.52 485.43 444.78
Television Eighteen India Ltd. NSE 84.80 86.23 83.63 87.67 82.47 88.83 81.03
Vijaya Bank NSE 103.60 107.00 99.85 110.40 96.10 114.15 92.70
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Monday, October 18, 2010 4:04:24 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 

 Tip for the day
 
 

PETRONET (BUY)

  • RSI is moving in over bought territory at 69 showing positive crossover.
  • Stochastic is moving in overbought territory showing positive crossover also indicating upside.
  • Stock already crossed 34 Day EWMA and expecting to rise further.
  • MACD showing positive divergence.
CMPBuy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

124.65

BUY

126/128/131

 121

118/135

BINANI INDUSTRIES (SELL)

  • RSI is at 84 level overbought territory an on brink of entering into negative crossover.
  • Stochastic is hovering in overbought showing negative crossover suggesting downside.
  • Stock next support level seems at 204 if its break then stock could fall up to 190.
  • Wide correction is expected.
  • The stock has been rising steeply over the past few sessions and the correction in it is long overdue.
CMPBuy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

224.5

SELL

222/219/215

 228

220/235

 
 
    US markets
 
 US stocks closed higher following better-than-expected quarterly results from banking giant Citigroup while investors also optimistically awaiting earnings from tech giants Apple and IBM which report after the market closes. Citigroup reported a USD 2.2 billion third-quarter profit, its third quarterly profit in a row as it freed a substantial chunk of cash reserved to cover loan losses in the wake of the financial crisis. Halliburton Company reported third-quarter revenues of USD 4.67 billion which was above expectations. Hasbro's third-quarter net earnings of USD1.09 per share also topped projections. On the economic front, industrial production showed a drop-off of 0.2% in September compared to the 0.2% uptick recorded in August and capacity utilization inched down to 74.7% in September from 74.8% in August. Meanwhile, home builder confidence index moved up to 16 in October after last month's reading of 13.  
 
    European markets
 
 European markets ended in positive with banks helping to lead gains after upbeat quarterly earnings from US financial giant Citigroup. Energy stocks also advanced tracking a recovery in oil prices, while mining stocks lagged. On economic front, Italy's current account deficit widened to EUR 5 billion in August from EUR 4.2 billion in the corresponding month in the previous year. In Finland, producer price index for manufactured products rose 7.2% year-on-year in September, faster than a 5.4% growth in the previous month.  
 
    Indian markets (Prev Day)
 
 The domestic bourses witnessed a dramatic session, as late hour buying pulled the benchmark indices into the positive terrain after trading subdued for the majority of the day. The market opened on a flat note after the first pre-opening session as the benchmarks continued their consolidation with a negative bias for third consecutive day, taking cues from the Asian indices. Friday's mixed closing for the US market influenced the global scenario. The sentiment was soon dampened and the market went deep into the negative terrain. The benchmark indices were further hammered before the Nifty took support near the 5,980 mark. As the day progressed, the market continued to trade rangebound on the lower side until the final hours, when a sharp rebound was witnessed the indices shooted above the baseline, paring all the losses. In the sectorial front, the IT sector remained in limelight as substantial buying interest returned after profit booking took place, post Tech major Infosys announced its Q2 numbers last week. The index closed with a gain of more than 1%. Further, Oil&Gas and Realty sector also supported the second half rally gaining by more than 0.50% each. Both the Nifty and Sensex managed to close above the neutral line. The NSE Nifty closed above the 6,070 mark, while the BSE Sensex ended near the 20,150 level.  
 
SENSEX Dow Jones FTSE 100
IndexLatest1 D Chg(%)YTD(%)
NSE Index (18 Oct 2010) 6075.95 0.22 16.82
Sensex (18 Oct 2010) 20168.89 0.22 15.48
Dow Jones Ind. .. (18 Oct 2010) 11143.69 0.73 6.86
Nasdaq Composit.. (18 Oct 2010) 2480.66 0.48 9.32
Hang Seng (18 Oct 2010) 23469.38 -1.21 7.30
Straits Times (18 Oct 2010) 3181.27 -0.72 9.79
FTSE 100 (18 Oct 2010) 5742.52 0.69 6.09
CAC 40 (18 Oct 2010) 3834.50 0.19 -2.59
SectorsClose1D Chg(%)
BSE IT 6152.77 1.26
BSEPSU 10363.20 0.30
OILGAS 10781.94 0.83
Advance Decline RatioValue(in Cr.)Exchange
0.88 884.98 SENSEX
1.18 7739.58 NIFTY
   SENSEX    NIFTY
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 979.35 2.98 30.62
NTPC Ltd. 206.90 1.70 -12.22
Tata Steel Ltd. 646.00 1.56 4.60
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
HCL Technologies Ltd. 446.45 3.49 20.24
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 981.25 3.26 30.79
Suzlon Energy Ltd. 58.90 2.43 -34.81
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
ACC Ltd. 970.05 -2.86 11.31
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 326.85 -2.21 -0.59
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. 128.35 -1.80 -12.63
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
ACC Ltd. 970.30 -2.60 11.22
Tata Power Company Ltd. 1395.05 -2.44 0.98
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 327.25 -1.92 -0.76
Top

Most Active Stocks by value (in Cr)

BSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
L&T 1989.45 1.19 137.73 697504
SBI 3164.70 0.08 88.10 278570
RIL 1040.90 0.77 86.95 833234
ICICI Bank 1126.55 -0.94 78.43 707898
Tata Steel 636.05 1.56 68.10 1071183
 
NSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
ICICI Bank 1124.65 -0.76 643.11 5810966
L&T 1988.60 1.35 571.63 2892434
SBI 3165.65 0.07 546.67 1729968
RIL 1040.35 0.68 529.58 5076676
InfosysTechn 3076.30 1.00 485.41 1573887
 
Strike Price Value Price %Chg
   Most Active Calls by Contract Value (in Cr)
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6100.00 1341843.43 89.65 -6.30
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6200.00 1079074.10 45.65 -3.29
   Most Active Puts by Contract Value (in Cr)
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6000.00 1286065.48 37.55 49.53
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6100.00 923646.72 67.40 35.16
   Most Active Future by Contracts Value (in Cr)
TATAMOTORS ( 28 Oct 2010 ) - 115027.11 1177.95 -1.80
RELIANCE ( 28 Oct 2010 ) - 97597.15 1063.15 -1.43
    Commodities
 
 Crude oil prices headed for the biggest percentage gain in two weeks and ended above USD 83. The prices rose after a strike in France tightened fuel supplies and the dollar pulled back from early gains. Gold prices were nearly flat and settled around USD 1,372 as the US dollar remained mixed.  
 
    International News
 
 
  • Europe's biggest initial public offering (IPO) since 2007 has kicked off with Italy's Enel floating shares in its renewable energy subsidiary Enel Green Power.
  • British oil company BP has agreed to sell its energy assets in Venezuela and Vietnam to its Russian joint venture for USD 1.8 billion
  • Data from Statistics New Zealand released has shown the annual inflation rate is the lowest it has been since March 2004 - at 1.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.1% in the September quarter, led largely by a 2.4% increase in food prices. 
 
 
    Domestic News
 
 
  • The Biocon and Pfizer have entered into a global commercialisation agreement for creating an alliance to deliver insulin treatments worldwide. Pfizer will make an upfront payment of USD 200 million in a licensing deal for Biocon's biosimilar insulin portfolio for diabetes treatment. 
  • The Supreme Court has questioned the central government and extended its earlier interim order permitting Sterlite Industries' copper smelter plant at Tuticorn in Tamil Nadu to continue its operations.  
  • State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur (SSBJ), the largest associate bank of SBI has unveiled its plans to raise Rs 800 crore from rights issue.  
 
 
CurrencyExchange-Rate1D Chg(%)1M Chg(%)
USD 44.26 0.52 % -1.55 %
EUR 61.45 -0.81 % 0.46 %
GBP 70.40 -0.21 % -0.39 %
FIIs ActivityRs. Cr.MTDYTD
Equity in flows 2922.00 60299.90 581547.10
Equity Out flows 2268.00 37437.00 474324.50
Net 654.00 22862.90 107222.70

International News
Europe's biggest initial public offering (IPO) since 2007 has kicked off with Italy's Enel floating shares in its renewable energy subsidiary Enel Green Power.
British oil company BP has agreed to sell its energy assets in Venezuela and Vietnam to its Russian joint venture for USD 1.8 billion
Data from Statistics New Zealand released has shown the annual inflation rate is the lowest it has been since March 2004 - at 1.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.1% in the September quarter, led largely by a 2.4% increase in food prices. 

Domestic News
The Biocon and Pfizer have entered into a global commercialisation agreement for creating an alliance to deliver insulin treatments worldwide. Pfizer will make an upfront payment of USD 200 million in a licensing deal for Biocon's biosimilar insulin portfolio for diabetes treatment. 
The Supreme Court has questioned the central government and extended its earlier interim order permitting Sterlite Industries' copper smelter plant at Tuticorn in Tamil Nadu to continue its operations.  
State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur (SSBJ), the largest associate bank of SBI has unveiled its plans to raise Rs 800 crore from rights issue. 

Global Cues:

Treasuries rebounded from the biggest weekly loss this year and U.S. equities rallied as a drop in industrial production bolstered speculation that the Federal Reserve will buy more securities. Financial shares led stocks higher as Citigroup Inc.'s earnings topped estimates.



Market Snapshot
  15-Oct 08-Oct
Nifty

6,062.65

6,103.45

Sensex

20,125.05

20,250.26

NSE F&O Turnover (Rs. Cr)

1,37,903.25

1,03,509.7

PC Ratio

0.92

0.87

India VIX

22.65

21.40


 

Weekly Open Interest Gainers
Stocks % Change in
OI
% Change in Price

ZEEL

133.43

-7.52

MUNDRAPORT

78.14

-10.22

VOLTAS

74.35

-3.14

EXIDEIND

62.89

-11.47

DABUR

45.58

-4.18




Weekly Open Interest Losers
Stocks % Change in
OI
% Change in Price

RUCHISOYA

-38.39

-1.16

OPTOCIRCUI

-21.84

1.07

HINDZINC

-19.51

0.47

PFC

-18.16

-3.96

RELMEDIA

-16.74

-4.62


Technical Outlook

Nifty is currently trading in range of 180 points in between 6,060-6,240, exhibiting rectangular pattern, trading with support at 6,060 and resistance at 6,240. In spite of Friday (October 15, 2010) sharp fall Nifty managed to close just above lower support line of rectangular pattern, closed at 6,062.65. If Nifty manages to trade above it then we could see upside in forthcoming session otherwise not ruling out the possibility of major correction.

Derivative Outlook

Nifty ended the week on a negative note at 6,062.65 mark, lost 0.67%. The Nifty October futures ended at 6,092 with premium of 29.35 points. If we look at the derivatives data we can see that Nifty future prices ended in the negative territory along with rise in open interest (1.02% w-o-w), with incline in cost of carry this is an indication of built of fresh short position. For the coming week Nifty may continue to face resistance at higher levels of 6,120-6,140 whereas on the downside mild support seems at 6,020. If this level breaches decisively then Nifty could test its strong support of 5,920 level.

 

Sector Outlook

This week, buying is expected in FMCG, Pharmaceuticals and Cement sectors from lower supports of 6,000 levels while profit booking could be seen in Banking, Metals, Realty and Telecommunication stocks if the Nifty fails to sustain above 6,060 levels.


Derivative Strategies for the week:

Long Nifty October 6000 Put Option and Simultaneously Short 5900 Put Option

CMP:6,062.65
View:Negative
Strategy:Bear Spread
Market Lot:50

Long RELIANCE October 1020 Put Option and Simultaneously Short 1000 Put Option

CMP: 1,040.35
View: Negative
Strategy:

Bear Spread

Market Lot: 250


Buy / Sell (Oct 18, 2010)
 BuySell Net
FII3765.873430.08 +335.79
DII1250.962469.38 -1218.42

*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES. 

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381