Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Purva, GTL Infra, Finance Tech, MTNL, UCO Bank, SCI, BEML, DCB, Dish TV & Pantaloon Retail.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Jindal Steel, LITL, Reliance, Maruti, Balrampur Chini, Hind Uni Lvr, State Bank Of India, Glaxo, HDFC & McDowell-N.
Nifty is in Up trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Below 5251 & 5261 levels, expect profit booking up to 5227-5229 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5205-5207 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 5278-5280 zone. Above this zone, rally may continue 5285 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 5300-5302 zone by non-stop.
Cross above 5307-5309 zone, can take it up to 5329-5331 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at 5198-5200 zone. Stop Loss at 5176-5178 zone.
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00.
Equity:
HOUSING DEV & INFRA (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 384 level, then it can tumble up to 380 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 377 level.
Rally up to 392 & 393 levels may be possible.
Cross above 397 level, this scrip will explode up to 401 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 405 level by non-stop.
RELIANCE CAPITAL (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 905 level, then it can tumble up to 900 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 889 level.
Rally up to 923 & 929 levels may be possible.
Cross above 943 level, this scrip will explode up to 949-951 zone by non-stop.
GAS AUTHORITY (NSE Cash)
Sideways trend with Positive bias. Rally may continue up to 443 & 444 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 447 level by non-stop.
Below 434 level, expect profit booking up to 426 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 423 level by non-stop.
NMDC (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Month.
STC (I) (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Month.
ENGINEERS (I) (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Week.
DREDGING CORPN (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Month.
STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES (NSE Cash):
Bears may get trapped at lower levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Week.
BRANDHOUSE RETAILS (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Week.
Excellent Buys:
Buy ELECTRO STEEL CA (NSE Cash): Buy with a Stop Loss of 51.00 level.
Buy JK LAKSHMI CEMEN (NSE Cash): Buy with a Stop Loss of 80.50 level.
Buy KWALITY DAIRY (I) (NSE Cash): Buy with a Stop Loss of 142.70 level.
OPTIONS (NSE): NIFTY 5300 CALL OPTION
Trend: Sideways Pattern with Positive bias.
Today's levels: 35 level is the support level & 61 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
RELIANCE 1110 CALL OPTION
Trend: Sideways Pattern with Negative bias.
Today's levels: 11 level is the support level & 26 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
STOCK FUTURES (NSE): TRIVENI ENGG & INDS FUTURES:
Sideways Pattern with Positive bias.
Today's levels: 111 level is the support level & 130 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
SPOT LEVELS TODAY
 | 5274.85 | ( 0.43 %) | 22.65 |  |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Resistance | 5301.92 | 5328.98 | 5365.47 | |
| Support | 5238.37 | 5201.88 | 5174.82 | |
 | 17641.08 | ( 0.49 %) | 86.78 | | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Resistance | 17733.95 | 17826.83 | 17941.05 | ||
| Support | 17526.85 | 17412.63 | 17319.75 | ||
FUNDS DATA
| FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| FII | 18-Jan-2010 | 2577.75 | 2424.85 | 152.9 |
| DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| DII | 18-Jan-2010 | 993 | 1014.46 | -21.46 |
INVESTMENT BUY:
CITY UNION BANK (BSE Code:532210)
1 Year Target 45.30.
Stop Loss at 27.30.
INVESTMENT VIEW
(May not be useful for Day-Traders)
Bharat Gears Ltd.
(BSE Code 505688: Rs.60.70/-)
Belonging to Apollo Tyres Group, BGL is biggest manufacturer of Gears for Auto Industry in India. Company has two Plants (Faridabad and Mumbra). Apart from Gears, it also produces Furnaces and other Automotive Components. It has reputed customers like:
Telco
New Holland
John Deere
VST Tractors
TMA
TDI
Carraro
Dana Corporation, USA
Company has good track record. However, last year its performance suffered, mainly due to decline in demand and fall in metal prices.
2008-09 2007-08 2006-07
Cr. Cr. Cr.
Net Sales 260.00 236.00 197.00
Depreciation 9.83 9.59 10.00
PAT 4.04 10.00 8.80
EPS Rs. 5.17 12.80 11.25
Cash EPS 17.75 25.05 24.05
From the above, can be observed that Company had very good profit margins in the past. With revival in demand, BGL is likely to regain the lost glory:
H1/09-10 H1/08-09 2009-10E 2010-11E
Net Sales 122.00 150.00 265.00 295.00
Net Profit 3.01 6.07 9.00 11.50
Cash Profit 7.93 10.75 18.50 21.00
Equity 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82
EPS Rs. 3.85 7.75 11.50 14.70
Cash EPS 10.15 13.75 23.65 26.85
In H1, Company has reported PAT of 3.01 crs. In Q1, Company had tiny profit of 30 lacs and hence, Q2 has witnessed very good profits. H1 of last year was better but H2 was very bad (losses). Profits in H1 of Current Year marks turnaround and revival for BGL.
Valuations: BGL is available at extremely tempting valuations:
1. Current Market Cap is just Rs. 43 crs. which is 16% of 09-10E sales.
2. Book Value is Rs. 50/-.
3. Stock is available at 4.78 x FY10E EPS and 2.32 x FY10E Cash EPS.
4. Stock is quoting at 3.75 x FY11E EPS and 2.05 x FY11 Cash EPS.
Any sharp rise in metal prices can dent its bottom line. Otherwise, BGL is poised for decent growth and better profit margins. Scrip can appreciate 30% in next 2 months and it can go up by 80% - 100% in less than 15 months.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice).
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
