Monday, September 13, 2010

Market Outlook 13th Sep 2010 & Weekly update(13-17th Sep)

10 Strong stocks for 13th Sep 2010 Monday
This is list of 10 Strong Stocks: 
Godrej Ind, Apollo Tyre, Ispat Ind, BEML, Ruchi Soya, KFA, Ultra Cem, ACC, IDBI & Tata Steel.
10 Weak stocks 
This is the list of 10 Weak Stocks: 
Sesa Goa, Hero Honda, Rel Infra, Chennai Petro, Cairn India, RNRL, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, National Alum & Cipla.
Daily trend of the market is up 
Market may consolidate at current levels but overall trend of the market is up and also majority of the world markets are in uptrend. So till the trend remains up the readers who had bought Nifty on 7th September may go on holding the longs.

TRADING CALLS 13th Sep 2010
 BUY MNM SL 634 TGT 675 
BUY CANBANK SL 5580 TGT 580 
BUY INFOSYS SL 2850 TGT 2900 
BUY CAIRN INDIA SL 316 TGT 335 
BUY GODRAJ SL 235 TGT 255 
BUY HPCL SL 480 TGT 580 
BUY TELCO SL 1000 T 1050 
BUY BHARTI SL 338 TGT 370 
BUY KOTAKBANK SL 845 TGT 892 
BUY VOLTAS SL 209 TGT 240 
BUY HDFC SL 2210 TGT 2277 
BUY TISCO SL 580 TGT 610 
BUY ULTRATECH SL 996 TGT 1130 
BUY MAXINDIA SL 166 TGT 189 
BUY CORPBANK SL 135 TGT 154 
BUY CHAMBLE SL 73 TGT 83 
BUY BEML SL 1170 TGT 1328 
BUY ABNOVO SL 845 TGT 960 
BUY ADANI SL 642 TGT 728
POSITIONAL CALLS
SELL ONGC SL 1390 T 1360 1350 1340 & 
SELL SBIBANK SL 3070 TGT 2990 2970 2950 BUY SBIBANK SL 2930 TGT 3000 3050
SELL TELCO SL 1045 TGT 1010 1000 990 980
SELL MNM SL 675 TGT 655 645 635 BUY MNM SL 640 TGT 660 670 680
BUY NIFTY SL 5590 TGT 5656 5670 5690

  • Supp / Resis INDEX SPOT/CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY FOR 13TH SEP 2010 MONDAY
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 5655.635671.22 5694.98
Support 5616.285592.52 5576.93
Sensex Resistance 18858.85 18918.03 19012.90
Support 18704.80 18609.93 18550.75

BANK NIFTY FUTURES (For Intra-Day).
RESISTANCE @
11419
11507-11509
11594-11596
Support @ 
11341-11378
11251-11253
11163-11165
 11017-11019
10929-10931
by A S Hameed

SPOT/CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY FOR INTRADAY TRADING 13TH SEP 2010
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
ACC Ltd. NSE 980.90 990.63 970.93 1000.37 960.97 1010.33 951.23
Apollo Tyres Ltd. NSE 85.00 86.87 83.87 88.73 82.73 89.87 80.87
Bank of Baroda NSE 842.65 848.72 836.07 854.78 829.48 861.37 823.42
Bank of India NSE 489.45 500.77 470.17 512.08 450.88 531.37 439.57
Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1148.56 1155.37 1136.37 1162.19 1124.19 1174.37 1117.37
BEML Ltd. NSE 1205.95 1235.97 1177.97 1265.98 1149.98 1293.97 1119.97
Cairn India Ltd. NSE 326.30 330.50 323.90 334.70 321.50 337.10 317.30
Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd. NSE 244.45 246.58 241.18 248.72 237.92 251.98 235.78
Cipla Ltd. NSE 306.50 311.45 303.05 316.40 299.60 319.85 294.65
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. NSE 399.20 402.83 393.78 406.47 388.37 411.88 384.73
Godrej Industries Ltd. NSE 244.65 251.50 232.90 258.35 221.15 270.10 214.30
Hero Honda Motors Ltd. NSE 1733.15 1745.83 1713.48 1758.52 1693.82 1778.18 1681.13
IDBI Bank Ltd. NSE 139.75 141.95 136.10 144.15 132.45 147.80 130.25
Ispat Industries Ltd. NSE 21.45 21.93 20.63 22.42 19.82 23.23 19.33
Kingfisher Airlines Ltd. NSE 67.25 68.82 66.27 70.38 65.28 71.37 63.72
National Aluminium Company Ltd. NSE 403.60 407.40 400.90 411.20 398.20 413.90 394.40
NSE Index NSE 5640.05 5655.63 5616.28 5671.22 5592.52 5694.98 5576.93
Punj Lloyd Ltd. NSE 112.65 113.60 111.95 114.55 111.25 115.25 110.30
Punjab National Bank NSE 1222.40 1239.18 1210.13 1255.97 1197.87 1268.23 1181.08
Reliance Capital Ltd. NSE 781.65 785.98 776.43 790.32 771.22 795.53 766.88
Reliance Communications Ltd. NSE 163.60 165.48 162.03 167.37 160.47 168.93 158.58
Reliance Industries Ltd. NSE 958.55 965.43 953.43 972.32 948.32 977.43 941.43
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 1011.25 1028.43 1000.53 1045.62 989.82 1056.33 972.63
Reliance Natural Resources Ltd. NSE 38.50 39.08 38.13 39.67 37.77 40.03 37.18
Reliance Power Ltd. NSE 155.30 157.00 154.30 158.70 153.30 159.70 151.60
Ruchi Soya Industries Ltd. NSE 141.05 142.40 139.15 143.75 137.25 145.65 135.90
Tata Chemicals Ltd. NSE 425.15 430.93 415.43 436.72 405.72 446.43 399.93
Tata Coffee Ltd. NSE 623.95 635.97 615.97 647.98 607.98 655.97 595.97
Tata Communications Ltd. NSE 338.00 342.45 335.05 346.90 332.10 349.85 327.65
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. NSE 874.70 881.02 869.87 887.33 865.03 892.17 858.72
Tata Motors Ltd. NSE 1014.85 1035.95 1001.20 1057.05 987.55 1070.70 966.45
Tata Power Company Ltd. NSE 1259.90 1284.92 1244.97 1309.93 1230.03 1324.87 1205.02
Tata Steel Ltd. NSE 593.65 601.85 580.25 610.05 566.85 623.45 558.65
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. NSE 23.45 23.85 23.20 24.25 22.95 24.50 22.55
UltraTech Cement Ltd. NSE 1026.30 1039.12 1004.37 1051.93 982.43 1073.87 969.62
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Thursday, September 09, 2010 4:04:37 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 

 

Nifty could test its major resistance around 5680
Nifty broke the bullish "ascending triangle" pattern and closed the week with significant gains of 160.65 points or 2.92% higher at 5,640.05, new 31 month high.  It is currently trading above 8 and 34 Day EWMA indicating continuation of current upward movement. However technical momentum indicators are not suggesting any clear trend. Stochastic is currently moving in overbought zone at 91, on the brink of showing negative crossover indicating correction while RSI and MACD is suggesting reverse, continuation of existing uptrend. RSI is currently trading in neutral territory at 68 levels on the brink of entering into overbought zone indicating further upside.

Technical Pick
1) BANK OF INDIA: BUY
2) BHUSHAN STEEL: SELL
3) RAYMOND: SELL
Market is overvalued; Liquidity is supporting share price appreciation
The Indian economy has posted yet another quarter of strong growth, with Apr-Jun real GDP rising by 8.8% y-o-y. Looking ahead, growth in 2nd quarter could again be quite encouraging and India could still grow its GDP by close to forecasts of 8.5% y-o-y in FY11 on the back of agriculture sector growth due to good monsoon. However, the Indian markets, like other emerging markets are largely dependent in liquidity flows and good fundamentals may not be a good enough reason for stock prices to move up if there's no liquidity to support share price appreciation. Going ahead, the key risk to flows is valuation risk (overvaluation relative to other Asian peers). Numbers for the latest quarter show profits lagging sales in growth rates as companies struggled with a rebound in input costs (including staff costs). This suggests that pricing power will hold the key to corporate performance from here on. companies focused on the domestic economy & consumption could continue to do well and get a higher rating than companies exposed to the headwinds of the world economy. Next week, buying is expected in FMCG Auto, Healthcare and Power stocks if Nifty sustain 5,600 level while selling pressure could witness in Banking, Metal and Realty stocks.

Fundamental Pick
1) ADHUNIK METALIKS: BUY
2) LUPIN: BUY
Global markets optimistically eyes on on the Basel Committee meeting and Obamas Job bill
Global equity markets remain firm bolstered by better than expected US employment data. Further, Obamas Job bill proposal to create a USD 50 billion jobs spread optimism in the markets. However, Japans and Australias central banks signaled that the outlook for US growth is deteriorating, making it tougher for them to set monetary policy as they leave interest rate unchanged for the time being. Initial Jobless claim rising above 5,00,00 in last week raise concern over the markets recovery. Moreover, in Euro zone investors will eye on the Basel Committee meeting for the prospect of financial sectors.
Crude prices likely to stay flat, Gold prices may ease down
The crude oil prices are likely to stay flat with a positive bias in the coming week. It is highly likely that the investors may shift their interest towards the riskier assets as the concerns regarding global economic recovery seems to be easing out. The gold prices are expected to ease down in the coming week. The prices may come down on the back of profit selling. The yellow metal already touched historic highs in this week and therefore may see resistance to a further rise in the coming days.
Bond prices are expected to remain flattish with negative bias
The expectations of cash conditions has improved in the market to some extent on hopes of government spending. The market is now expecting that Rs. 40,000 crore advance tax outgo by companies may only result in deficit may be Rs 20,000 crore in mid-September. Bond prices are expected to remain flattish with negative bias in the coming week on advance tax outgo. Further, the IIP data, inflation figure and RBIs policy decision holds key to market movement.

Technical Analysis

Nifty could test its major resistance around 5,680

Nifty broke the bullish "ascending triangle" pattern in the week ending September 9, 2010. It gained about 2.92% (160.05 points) from the last week close. Nifty is now exhibiting a very choppy trade post 31 month high.  For the week ending Thursday Sep 9, 2010 Nifty low and open prices are same and it rose continuously, day-on-day, restricted it going below. After opening on 'positive' note on first day of current week (6-9 September, 2010) Nifty rose higher on everyday during the rest of week. It also met with 'profit-booking' on almost all trading sessions of the week in intraday trade but on all trading days managed to close higher than its previous closed.  On Tuesday (September 7, 2010) and Wednesday (September 8, 2010) Nifty faced stiff resistance at 5,625 in intraday trade, gave away all the intraday gains slipped into red but in late trade saw 'short-covering' and rose again to close the days with moderate gains. From here, it seems that the bulls may not be able to push the prices higher as the range of 5,640-5,660, is a strong resistance for Nifty from where bears can take control from them once it comes near to said level. Technically also the trend, which is now up, could test its next major resistances around 5680 and if Nifty crosses this level, it can go further up, to test 5,720 level, chances of which seems very low. On the downside, the levels of 5,560 will play major supports and any decisive fall below that could drag Nifty to its next strong support of 5,480. Nifty is currently trading above 8 and 34 Day EWMA indicating upward movement but for coming week expecting correction as technical momentum indicator Stochastic is currently moving in overbought zone at 91 on the brink of showing negative crossover indicating correction. But on the other side another key momentum technical indicators RSI and MACD is suggesting reverse, continuation of existing uptrend. RSI is currently trading in neutral territory at 68 levels on the brink of entering into overbought zone indicating further upside. MACD is trading in positive zone showing positive divergence also suggesting uptrend.

Technical Picks

 
BANK OF INDIA (BUY)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

491.00

Target Price

497/505/512

Stop Loss

483

Support-Resistance

455/515

Comment

  • RSI has just entered into overbought territory with positive crossover indicating upside.
  • Stock already crossed 34 Day EWMA and expecting to rise further.
  • Stochastic has also just entered into overbought territory moving upward suggesting further upside.
  • Today stock has also broken its 52 week high supported with volume indicating further upside.




BHUSHAN STEEL (SELL)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

1,871.75

Target Price

1,850/1,820

Stop Loss

1,900

Support-Resistance

1,805/1,932



Comment
  • RSI is at 70 showing negative crossover indicating correction.
  • Stock is moving between 08 day and 34 day EWMA indicating short-term downtrend.
  • Stochastic is moving in neutral territory showing negative crossover also indicating downside.
  • Stock next support level seems at 1805 if its break then stock could fall up to 1763


RAYMOND (SELL)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

406.05

Target Price

400/390

Stop Loss

412

Support-Resistance

390/424



Comment
  • RSI is trading in over bought territory at 71on the brink of entering into negative territory.
  • Stock is trading above 08 day EWMA and has shown 'doji' pattern on Wednesday (Sep 8, 2010).
  • Stochastic is hovering in overbought showing negative crossover suggesting downside.
  • Next support level seems at 390 if its break then stock could fall up to 375.

 

 

 











 

Indian Equity Market


The Week Gone By

Indian markets wrapped the week on a positive note and attained 31-month closing highs as strong global cues, a good monsoon and sustained buying by foreign funds, boosted domestic investor sentiment. Further, Stocks also surged as a better-than-expected US job data for August 2010 eased concerns about global economy. Banking and metal share were among top gainers. Steel and Cement stocks rose as companies have increased product prices.

Looking Forward

The Indian economy has posted yet another quarter of strong growth, with Apr-Jun real GDP rising by 8.8% y-o-y. Looking ahead, growth in 2nd quarter could again be quite encouraging and India could still grow its GDP by close to forecasts of 8.5% y-o-y in FY11 on the back of agriculture sector growth due to good monsoon. However, the Indian markets, like other emerging markets are largely dependent in liquidity flows and good fundamentals may not be a good enough reason for stock prices to move up if there's no liquidity to support share price appreciation. Going ahead, the key risk to flows is valuation risk (overvaluation relative to other Asian peers). Sensex is Currently, trading at PE of 22.36, premium to its peers and hence above is long term average. Numbers for the latest quarter show profits lagging sales in growth rates as companies struggled with a rebound in input costs. Pricing power, will hold the key to corporate performance from here on. Companies in sectors that are able to pass on their cost increases to consumers may enjoy greater stock market fancy than those that are forced to absorb them. Further, companies focused on the domestic economy & consumption could continue to do well and get a higher rating than companies exposed to the headwinds of the world economy. Next week, buying is expected in FMCG, Auto, HC and Power stocks if Nifty sustain 5,600 level while selling pressure could witness in Banking, Metal and Realty stocks.


Nifty Top Gainers

Company % Weekly Return

Tata Steel

9.74 

ACC

9.40 

Ambuja Cement

8.38 


Nifty Top Loser

Company % Weekly Return

Power Grid

(3.24)

Cairn

(2.92)

Reliance Infra

(2.14)

 

 

 

 


Daily Movement of Nifty


Daily Movement of Sensex, Net FIIs & MF investment


Source for FII & MF: Sebi

Weekly return on BSE Sectoral Indices


Fundamental Picks

 
Lupin (BUY)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

375.80

Target Price

415.00

Upside (%)

10.43%

52 Week H/L

397.00/200.43

Market Cap

16,741




Adhunik Metaliks (Buy)

Particulars Rs.
CMP

118.10

Target Price

132

Upside (%)

12

52 Week H/L

136.70/86.45

Market Cap

1,458


Weekly Price Movement of GDR

Security Name

Price (USD)
as on 08-09-10

% change
as on 02-09-10

L&T

40.19

1.49

RIL

41.50

2.88

SBI

123.36

4.45

 

Lupin's net sales for the quarter ended June 2010 increased by 21% to Rs 1,312.09 crore and other operating income rose by 48% to Rs 22.19 crore totaling income from operation to increase by 21% to Rs 1,334.28 crore. Revenues from domestic market have increased by 17% to Rs 472.35 crore and exports rose by 24% to Rs 861.93 crore. Also, net profit on consolidated basis increased by 40% to Rs 196.30 crore for the quarter ended June 2010. Further, there has been a significant ramp-up in Lupin's ANDA filings in recent years, with about 125 of Lupin's total 130 filings made in the past six years. As of 1QFY11, the company was awaiting approvals for about 85 filings, which should fuel future growth. At the CMP of Rs 375.80, the stock is trading at P/E multiple of 5.33x(based on TTM EPS) more than the average industry PE multiple of around 22x.



Adhunik Metaliks reported better-than-expected consolidated results for Q1FY11. Net sales grew by a healthy 40% YoY and net profit jumped by more than 200% to 56 crore. Further ramp-up of iron ore production and manganese ore with mining permission of three new manganese ore mines located in Kusumdihi, Tentulidihi and Sanpatholi is likely to provide a strong boost to the overall performance. The steel business is also likely to benefit from the captive iron ore supply. Looking at the overall prospect of the company and sustainable performance. At the CMP of Rs 118.10, the stock is trading at P/E of8.14x on a consolidated basis. We believe the stock has attractive valuation for long-term investment with the ramping up of its mining business in OMML and foray into the power business through APNRL.


Weekly Price Movement of ADR


Security Name Price (USD)
as on 08-09-10
% change
as on 02-09-10
ICICI bank

44.42

3.06

Infosys

61.63

3.11

MTNL

2.83

2.91

Rediff

2.93

22.08

Sify

1.56

12.23


Global Equity Markets

US indices higher during the week (till Wednesday) after president Barrack Obama's new proposals for economic recovery boosted the sentiments. This included spend an additional USD 50 billion on infrastructure projects and giving tax breaks of about USD 200 billion for businesses investing in new plants and an extension of USD 100 billion of business tax credit for research and development. Also, the Fed's Beige Book stated that the US economy continued its modest expansion, although it noted that a drop-off in the strength of economic data indicated a slower pace of recovery. On economic front, investors were presented with positive economic data, which was further boosted the market sentiments. Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the weekly jobless claims report, while data on international trade may also attract some attention.

Asian markets traded mix (till Thursday). The stock in Japan slipped as the strength in Japanese Yen hurt the investor sentiments. The Bank of Japan held its policy interest rate unchanged and left open the possibility of additional emergency action to support the economy, but it hardly seemed to have any effect on the ruthless rise in the Japanese currency.In China, SSE Composite remained flat as banks and property developers fell on concerns over further tightening measures to cool the housing sector overshadowing the rise in steel maker post Obama's USD 50 billion infrastructure plan.

European markets (till Wednesday) managed to hold gains during the week. Market sentiments got boost from the last Friday's news that U.S. employment fell less than expected in August and private hiring surprised on the upside. Further, utilities stocks supported the markets after Germany extended nuclear power plants' lifespans. Though, concern over the Banking sector's health and the impact of capital reform weighed on markets but regains strength on the back of technology and mining shares. Also, Portugal's successful raising of 1.04 billion euros in the debt market lifted investors sentiments. Next week, financial stocks will be on lime light as Basel Committee will meet on Sunday to determine how much capital banks will have to set aside as a safety net.

Weekly return on major Global Indices

Data of US and European markets taken from Sept 02 to Sept 08, 2010
Data of Asian markets taken from Sept 03 to Sept 09, 2010

Weekly Change in the Composites of S&P 500
Industry

Adj. Mkt. Cap
as on

08-09-10

Adj. Mkt. Cap as on
02-09-10

%
Change

Energy

10,86,555 

10,84,396 

0.20 

Materials

3,66,460 

3,62,623 

1.06 

Industrials

10,71,329 

10,55,131 

1.54 

Cons Disc

10,31,671 

10,26,049 

0.55 

Cons Staples

11,51,602 

11,44,565 

0.61 

Health Care

11,49,501 

11,40,398 

0.80 

Financials

15,99,576 

15,85,923 

0.86 

Info Tech

18,20,902 

17,98,948 

1.22 

Telecom Services

3,16,294 

3,14,790 

0.48 

Utilities

3,71,876 

3,73,402 

(0.41)


Key Events

Global Key Events

  • US consumer credit fell by USD 3.6 billion in July following a revised USD 1.0 billion decrease in June. Economists had expected credit to decrease by about USD 5.2 billion compared to the USD 1.3 billion drop originally reported for the previous month. Revolving credit fell by USD 4.4 billion in July after declining by USD 5.2 billion in the previous month. Meanwhile, non-revolving credit, such as car loans, edged up by USD 0.7 billion in July following a USD 4.2 billion increase in June.

  • Investor sentiment in the eurozone fell more than expected from its 30-month high in August. The confidence index fell to 7.6 from 8.5 in August. The current situation index fell to 15.0 from 16.5. At the same time, the expectations index fell to 0.50 from 0.75, implying a deteriorating outlook.

  • U.K. manufacturing output and orders were buoyant between July and September on the back of strong overseas demand. Output and new order balances were 33% and 35% respectively, both record high levels since the survey began in 1995.

  • U.K. house prices recorded a modest 0.2% monthly growth compared to a 0.7% increase in July. Prior to the gain in July, prices fell every month since March. In August, house prices were 4.6% higher than the same month last year. The price growth was, however, slower than 4.9% in July. The annual rate has been easing since May, when it peaked at 6.9%.

  • U.K. Retail Consortium Nielsen Shop Price Index increased 1.7% from a year earlier, faster than the 1.5% rise in July. Food inflation increased to 3.8% from 2.5% in July. Non-food inflation slowed to 0.5% from 1%. Global wheat prices have seen a sharp surge in value following a drought in Russia.

  • The Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at near-zero at 0.10% at the end of its two-day policy meeting and promised to take more policy actions if judged necessary to kick start the deflation-ravaged economy. The decision was widely anticipated by markets after the central bank eased its by increasing the amount of low-interest loans available to the money market to JPY 30 trillion from JPY 20 trillion.



Domestic Key Events

  • Food price index rose 11.47% and the fuel price index climbed 12.71% in the year to August 28. Food inflation accelerated from the previous week's annual rise of 10.86% while fuel inflation remained the same. The primary articles price index was up 15.40%, compared with week-ago's reading of 15.19%. The wholesale price index, the most closely watched inflation gauge in India, rose 9.97% in July from a year earlier after remaining above 10% for five months until June.

  • Direct tax collections shot up by 13.91% to Rs. 1.00 tn in the first five months of the 2010-11 financial year till August, the Finance Ministry said. As per data, corporate tax collections grew by 17.05% to Rs. 577.50 bn in April-August, 2010, from Rs. 493.39 bn in the corresponding fivemonth period a year ago. Meanwhile, personal income tax collection including securities transaction tax, residual fringe benefit tax and banking cash transactions tax rose by 9.68% per cent to Rs. 422.17 bn from Rs. 384.91 bn.

  • Foreign direct investment into India dipped for the second consecutive month, by 49% to USD 1.78 billion in July. The FDI inflows in July 2009 were USD 3.51 billion. For the April-July period of 2010-11, FDI inflows declined by 27% to USD 7.59 billion compared to USD 10.53 billion in the same period last year.

  • The country's tea exports fell by nearly 20% to Rs 209.8 crore in July. Tea exports stood at Rs 260.1 crore in July 2009. In volume terms, the total shipments of tea declined by nearly 9% to 16.58 million kg in July, as against 18.2 million kg in the corresponding month last year. The exports in value terms during January-July period of this year rose by nearly 10% to Rs 1,393 crore in contrast to Rs 1,269.7 crore in the corresponding period in 2009.

  • India's oil ministry has decided to sell part of the government's stake in Oil & Natural Gas Corp., the nation's biggest explorer, and Indian Oil Corp., the second- biggest refiner, to raise money to cut its budget deficit. The government plans to divest 10% in Indian Oil and 5% in ONGC. Indian Oil will simultaneously offer fresh shares equivalent to 10% of its equity.

  • Indian Railways has approached Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) for setting up 1,000 mw of captive nuclear capacity on its behalf. The proposal put forward by the Indian Railways includes setting up two units of 500 mw on railway land. Power generated from the plants will be used by the Railways.


Derivatives

 

  • Nifty ended the week on a positive note at 5,640.05 mark, gaining 2.93%. The Nifty September futures ended at 5,630.55 with discount of 9.50 points . If we look at the derivatives data we can see that Nifty future prices ended in the positive territory along with rise in open interest, but with small decline in cost of carry this is an indication of long position is being built up at lower level with cautious note. For the coming week Nifty may continue to face resistance at higher levels of 5,680-5,700 whereas on the downside support is seen at 5,540-5,450 levels.


  • During the week, there was significant short accumulation of open interest in OTM Put options. most of the open interest accretion witnessed in the range of 5,300 to 5,500 put, while, on the flip side, highest open interest was build up in the range of 5,600 and 5,700 Calls.


  • The PCR-OI declined slightly from 1.16 to 1.18 on account of heavy short accumulation in Nifty September 5,300 to 5,500 Strike Put.


  • The Volatility Index (VIX) remained at lower level in and closed to 15.92%. Market participants should be watchful at current levels as any up move in volatility may trigger downsides in the markets. Volatility has a strong inverse correlation with markets.


  • The CNX IT index ended the week at 6,302 marks gaining 3.72%. The CNX IT Futures prices inclined along with decline in the open interest with decline in cost of carry this is an indication of closure of long position. For the coming week, immediate support for the Index is seen in the range of 6,000-6150 mark, whereas on the upside resistance is seen at 6,400- 6,450 levels.


  • During the week the Bank Nifty Index ended on a positive note and rose by 4.14% to 11,446.70. If we look at the derivatives desk we can see that the bank Nifty futures prices increased along with incline in open interest but with decline in the cost of carry, this is an indication closure of long position and short position is being built up at higher level. For the coming week bank Nifty support is seen in the range of 10,750-10,800 levels whereas on the upside stiff resistance would be faced at 11,500-11,550 levels.



  • FIIs were net buyer in index futures to the tune of Rs 1,195 crore while in stock future they were net buyer of 1671 crore, indicating further long accumulation in markets . Further, in the index options FII were net buyer of 5,325 crore .



  • Overall next week, Nifty is expected to show a positive trend and light selloffs is likely at every resistance level. Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 5,540-5,720. Any instability on the global front is likely to result in selling pressure from current levels. The trading strategy would be to go long if the Nifty sustains above 5,630 levels for targets of 5,680 on the other hand, one can also initiate shorts if the Nifty resists at 5680 levels with a target of 5,560. Further in option front trader can short 5400 and 5500 strike Put with of Nifty for September expiry.
 Open Interest in Nifty Future vis-à-vis Nifty



Most Active Contracts


Put-Call Ratio


Volatility Index

FIIs Cumulative trailing 5 day's data
Particulars Buy Sell Net
Index Futures

7,798.46 

6,603.38 

1,195.07 

Index Options

21,729.36 

16,403.67 

5,325.69 

Stock Futures

6,474.16 

4,802.70 

1,671.46 

Stock Options

2,000.00 

2,003.07 

(3.07)

*From September 02 to till September 08 (Source: NSE)

Debt
  • Call money rates remained weak during the week as liquidity in the system remains at comfortable level. Volumes have risen sharply on LAF window with banks parking Rs. 18,893 crore daily with RBI on reverse repo window while repo transaction remained nil. The liquidity in the market improved on month ending expenditure by government and some product adjustments.



  • After remaining net seller during the previous two weeks, FIIs turned net buyers in the market with Rs 1,940.2 crore buying compared to 729 crore selling in the previous week. Meanwhile, MFs continued to be net buyer in the debt market, with Rs 3,134.5 crore (4 days) buying compared to Rs 13,035.5 crore of buying in the previous week.








  • Bond prices remained flat during the week as investors turned cautious ahead of factory data, monthly inflation and mid-quarter monetary policy review by RBI. Bond prices notched up slightly as investors cheered the paper chosen by government in its next bond auction. The government did not announce the auction of benchmark 10-year bond for sale this week and gave some relief to the investors. Further, speculation that government may continue issuing the 10-year benchmark bond for the remainder of the current fiscal year also helped prices higher. However, the investor approached consciously ahead key economic data including industrial production due this week and monthly inflation due early next week. Further, the investor refrained from taking position ahead of RBI's mid-quarter policy review due on September 16, 2010.



  • The expectations of cash conditions has improved in the market to some extent on hopes of government spending. The market is now expecting that Rs. 40,000 crore advance tax outgo by companies may only result in deficit may be Rs 20,000 crore in mid-September. Bond prices are expected to remain flattish with negative bias in the coming week on advance tax outgo. Further, the IIP data, inflation figure and RBI's policy decision holds key to market movement.




  • During the week, RBI sucked Rs 75,570 crore from the system under Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) window while Repo transaction stood nil. On September 03, 2010, the GoI auctioned 7.46% CG 2017 worth Rs. 4,000 crore, 8.08% CG 2022 worth Rs. 5,000 crore, 8.30% CG 2040 worth Rs. 3,000 crore. On September 06, 2010, GOI announced auction of 7.17% CG 2015 worth Rs. 4,000 crore, 8.13% CG 2022 worth Rs. 5,000 crore, 8.26% CG 2027 worth Rs. 3,000 crore to be held on September 09, 2010. On September 07, 2010, Five State Governments auctioned State Development Loans 2020 worth Rs. 5,548 crore. On September 08, 2010, RBI auctioned 91-day Treasury Bills worth Rs 2,000 crore and 364-day Treasury Bills worth Rs 1,000 crore.


  • In the financial year 2010-11, Government of India (GOI) has planned to borrow as much as Rs. 4,57,143 crore. Till September 03, 2010, the government has completed 60.69% of the gross borrowing target for the current year.
 Call Rates
Date Rate (%)

3-Sep

3.79

6-Sep

4.77

7-Sep

4.62

8-Sep

4.64


FIIs & MFs investment in Debt Market

Period
FIIs
Net Investment
(Rs. Crore)
MFs
Net Investment
(Rs. Crore)

3-Sep

825.8 

581.4 

6-Sep

1,091.1 

(457.7)

7-Sep

(371.8)

849.0 

8-Sep

395.1 

2,161.8 

Total

1,940.2 

3,134.5 

This Month

1,346.4 

6,073.0 

 (Source: SEBI)

Bond Yield (7.80% CG 2020)
Date LTP (Rs.) YTM (%)

3-Sep

98.90

7.9694

6-Sep

98.69

7.9922

7-Sep

99.02

7.9525

8-Sep

99.07

7.9307

 
Spread


Liquidity Adjustment Facility
Date Reverse Repo
(Rs. Crore)
Repo
(Rs. Crore)

3-Sep

31,140 

6-Sep

17,860 

7-Sep

18,910 

8-Sep

7,660 

This week

75,570 

This Month

94,815 


 GoI borrowing Program - 2010-11
Particulars
(Rs. Cr.)

Budgeted Borrowings 

4,57,143 

Gross Borrowing Completed

2,77,439 

Dated Securities 

2,62,000 

364 Day T-Bills 

15,439 

% Completed

60.69 

Net Borrowing till date

1,80,367 


Commodity
Crude oil prices saw a further slowdown in the beginning of the week as the trading remained grim on account of Labor Day holiday in US. The U.S. Labor Day holiday also marked the end of the peak driving season, prompting traders to bet more on falling prices. As the week proceeded, the crude prices slipped further due to strengthening dollar. Moreover, the concerns about economic recovery grew further on the reports that Germany's manufacturing orders dropped 2.2% in July from the previous month against an expected rise of 0.5%. Crude oil prices pared the initial losses to rise marginally as the dollar gained strength, which helped to increase the commodities appeal as an alternate investment. Crude gained in sync with the equity markets which were up after improved demand for bonds from Portugal to Poland eased concern that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis will derail the global economic recovery. Though some of the gains were trimmed after the release of Fed's Beige Book but the prices managed to remain strong. Finally , the crude oil prices ended 1.61% higher in the international markets and 1.50% higher in the domestic market as on September 8, 2010 from the previous week which ended September 2, 2010. The crude oil prices are likely to stay flat with a positive bias in the coming week. It is highly likely that the investors may shift their interest towards the riskier assets as the concerns regarding global economic recovery seems to easing out.

Gold prices started the week on a strong note, though the trading volume remained low due to Labor Day holiday in US. The equity markets across the globe moved in a very narrow range on account of a hazy global economic recovery. This forced the investors to look into gold as an alternate investment instrument. As the week proceeded, the gold prices began to drop as the equity markets rebounded as improved demand for Portuguese and Polish bonds eased sovereign-debt concerns. This damped demand for the precious metal as a haven. Moreover, gold had already touched a record high which led to certain resistance for a further rise in the prices of the yellow metal. The domestic gold prices also followed the international trends. The domestic gold prices touched historic highs on global cues. Moreover, the markets witnessed major buying on upcoming weddings and festivities. There was sudden decline in the prices of the precious metal as resistance level emerged after touching record highs. Finally, the gold prices saw a modest gain of 0.52% in the international markets and 0.13% in the domestic market as on September 8, 2010 from the previous week which ended September 2, 2010.The gold prices are expected to ease down in the coming week. The prices may come down on the back of profit selling. The yellow metal already touched historic highs in this week and therefore may see resistance to a further rise in the coming days.

 
Weekly change in Crude prices per Barrel
  08-Sep 02-Sep Change (%)
Intl Crude Oil Prices (USD)

78.17

76.93

1.61

Domestic Price (Rs)

3,648.00

3,594.00

1.50




 





Weekly change in Gold prices in Rs/10gms

  08-Sep 02-Sep Change (%)
London pm fix(USD/troyoz)

1,255.00

1,248.50

0.52

Mumbai (Rs/10gms)

19,170.00

19,145.00

0.13


Forex

Rupee ended the week on mixed note as rise in appetite for riskier assets helped it make gains against greenback but it weakened against soaring Japanese yen. Rupee started the week on higher note against USD and rose to highest level in three weeks tracking gains in local shares and other Asian peers following better-than-expected US jobs data. However, it then erased gains, hurt by broad gains in the US unit and bunched up dollar outflows. Rupee also inched up higher against Euro on concerns of health of European banking sector after Federal Association of German Banks said that ten of the nation's biggest lenders may need to raise as much as EUR 105 billion, in order to meet new regulatory standards. However, Indian currency fell against Yen tracking rise in Japanese currency against major world currencies. JPY has once again touched its 15 year high against USD.

INR/ 09-Sep 03-Sep %Change
USD

46.56

46.67

0.24 

EURO

59.11

59.82

1.19 

YEN

55.65

55.40

(0.45)

 

INR vs. USD and Euro



Economy

Indicators Latest Previous Change
Investment Deposit Ratio (%)

31.36 (Aug 13)

31.14 (Jul 30)

Credit Deposit Ratio (%)

72.64 (Aug 13)

72.36 (Jul 30)

Money Supply (%)

14.80 (Aug 13)

14.70 (Jul 30)

Bank Credit (%)

20.10 (Aug 13)

19.70 (Jul 30)

Aggregate Deposits (%)

14.10 (Aug 13)

14.00 (Jul 30)

Forex Reserves USD bn

282.84 (Aug 27)

282.54 (Aug 20)



Disclaimer
Buy / Sell (Sep 09, 2010)
 BuySell Net
FII3266.192278.20 + 987.99
DII1581.771783.30 - 201.53

*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES. 

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report.
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381