Market Outlook 30th April 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks

This is list of 10 strong stocks: 

Indian Bank, DCB, UCO Bank, Pir Health, LITL, Corp Bank, Yes Bank, Andhra Bank, GT Offshore & Allahabad Bank.  

And this is list of 10 Weak stocks

Renuka, Triveni, Balrampur Chini, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Hind, HDIL, Sun Pharma, BEL, Educomp & DCHL.

The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend 

Today Market Update on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/morning-brief/morning-brief-30Apr2010.htm

Derivatives EOD Report on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/derivative-strategy/derivative-EOD-29-Apr-2010.htm

Corporate News Headline
•	UltraTech Cement reported a 26.14% decline in its net profit at Rs. 2.29 bn for the March quarter from Rs. 3.09 bn reported in the same quarter previous fiscal. (BS)
•	Ashok Leyland said its net profit jumped over four-fold to Rs. 2.23 bn for the quarter ended March 31, over the same period last year. Net sales of the company rose to Rs. 29.41 bn for the quarter ended March 31, from Rs. 12.30 bn in the same period last year, Ashok Leyland said. (BS)
•	NTPC-BHEL Power Projects Pvt Ltd said it's expecting orders worth Rs. 70.00 bn by the end of the current fiscal. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
•	Food inflation fell sharply by over 100 basis points to 16.61% for the week ended April 17 on lower prices of fruits and vegetables. In the previous week ending April 10, food inflation was at 17.65%. Prices of masur, jowar, fruits and vegetables fell by 2% each over the week and that of wheat by 1%. (BS)
•	European confidence in the economic outlook improved to the highest in more than two years. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 euro nations rose to 100.6 in April from a revised 97.9 in March, the European Commission in Brussels said. (Bloomberg)
•	German unemployment fell at the fastest pace in more than two years in April as Europe's largest economy shrugged off a worsening fiscal crisis in the euro region's periphery. The number of people out of work declined a seasonally adjusted 68,000 to 3.29 million, the Federal Labor Agency said. (Bloomberg) SPOT/ CASH INDEX LEVELS TODAY    5254.15 ( 0.74 %) 38.70          1 2 3 Resistance 5274.33 5294.52   5324.28   Support 5224.38 5194.62 5174.43 17503.47 ( 0.71 %) 123.39         1 2 3 Resistance 17563.52 17623.58 17714.29 Support 17412.75 17322.04 17261.98

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	29-Apr-2010	3889.56	3799.12	90.44

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	29-Apr-2010	1402.45	1135.69	266.76

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 

Above 5249-5251 zone, rally may continue up to 5256 level by non-stop. 

Support at 5229 & 5235 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 5217-5219 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5206-5208 zone by non-stop. 

Buy if touches 5189-5191 zone. Stop Loss at 5179-5181 zone. 

On Positive Side, cross above 5266-5268 zone can take it up to 5276-5278 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:

Bearish Trend. 

Down Side Target at 5050.20. 

Stop Loss at 5349.90.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

DENABANK FUTURES 

Dena Bank has posted results for the fourth quarter ended 31st March 2010.

For the quarter ended 31st March 2010, the net profit stood at Rs1.37bn as compared to Rs1.11bn for the quarter ended 31st March 2009.The operating profit stood at Rs2.80bn as compared to Rs1.87bn for the quarter ended 31st March 2009. 

Total capital increased from Rs31.79bn as of March '09 to Rs38.37bn as of March 10.

The bank is planning to open 400 new branches in next 3 years to have national presence.The bank has already opened 3 new CBBs during 2009-10. 

The bank is planning to add more Retail Asset Centres in addition to the existing 12 Centres.Total 250 new ATMS to be installed by March 2011. 

Technicals: DENABANK FUTURES 

Yesterday's rally was surprising & that too Real Buying too.  

Bulls eyeing Target of 95.55 level on upper side. If clicks then it will be real jackpot too. If Profit Booking Starts, then expect a slide up to 83.35 level by non-stop.

ANDHRABANK FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 

Andhra Bank said fourth quarter net interest income rose 66% to Rs 656 crore from Rs 395 crore a year ago. Net profit for the quarter rose 19.4% to Rs 240 crore compared to net profit of Rs 201 crore a year ago. 

Technicals: ANDHRABANK FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 

Real Buying taken place in last 5 Trading Days. 

 Bulls eyeing Target of 148.20 level on upper side. If clicks, then it will be jackpot for Bulls. If Profit Booking Starts, then expect a slide up to 119.05 level by non-stop and have caution.

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 5300 CALL OPTION 

Yesterday's rally was surprising. But Bulls rigged & Do not get excited too.  

Bulls eyeing Target of 100.95 level on upper side. If Profit Booking Starts, then expect a slide up to 59.10 level and have caution.

RELIANCE 1040 CALL OPTION 

Yesterday's rally was surprising. But Bulls rigged & Do not get excited too.  

Bulls eyeing Target of 44.80 level on upper side. If Profit Booking Starts, then expect a slide up to 23.45 level and have caution.

Equity:

MINDTREE (NSE Cash) 

HSBC, JPMorgan and Credit Suisse downgraded the stock.  

Technicals: MINDTREE (NSE Cash) 

It fallen in line with the expectations on yesterday. Real Selling too.  

If continue to fall, then selling may continue up to 501.50 level and bears will get jackpot too. At the same time, if rebounds then huge upside risk is there and this scrip can jump up to 649.30 level and have caution. Too risky, if start recovers.

JETAIRWAYS (NSE Cash) 

Jet Airways has decided to induct two B737s to its fleet in May, indicating that Indian aviation is on a strong comeback trail. The airline will also gradually introduce business class in all its JetKonnect airplanes as the demand from its premium card holders — silver, gold and platinum members — for the business class has grown. 

Technicals: JETAIRWAYS (NSE Cash) 

Yesterday's rally was a surprise & that too Real Buying too. 

If continue to rise, then technically it can zoom up to 570.15 level by non-stop. Bulls will be pleased too. At the same time, if Profit Booking Starts, then expect a slide up to 484.15 level and have caution. Risk is too high.

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer:

"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."

-- 

Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 29th April 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks

This is list of 10 strong Stocks: 

Indian Bank, DCB, LITL, Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Andhra Bank, Yes Bank, ALBK, Power Grid & GE Shiping. 

And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks

Balrampur Chini, Renuka, Triveni, Bajaj Hind, Tech Mahindra,  HDIL, Maruti, McDowell, Sail & Suzlon.

The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend 

Derivatives EOD Report http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/derivative-strategy/derivative-EOD-28-Apr-2010.htm

Today Market Update on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/morning-brief/morning-brief-29Apr2010.htm

IPO Release Report on Jaypee http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/special-reports/IPO_Note_Jaypee_Infratech_April_2010.htm

IPO Release Report on Satluj http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/special-reports/IPO_Note_Satluj_Jal_Vidyut_Nigam_Ltd_April_2010.htm

Corporate News Headline
•	Bharti Airtel posted its first fall in earnings in three years as cut-throat competition dented margins leading to an 8% drop in net profit to Rs. 20.60 bn in the fourth quarter. (BS)
•	Punj Lloyd said it has won a construction contract for the 6-million tonnes per year Cuddalore refinery in south India. The firm did not disclose the value of the order. (BS)
•	Marico said its consolidated net profit rose by 15% to Rs. 510 mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2010. Total income rose to Rs. 6.07 bn for the quarter ended March 2010 from Rs. 5.69 bn in the same period in the previous fiscal. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
•	India's worryingly high inflation should ease as there are indications of a cooling in high food prices that have been driving it, Finance Minister said. (BS)
•	South Africa's inflation rate fell in March to 5.1%, its lowest in almost four years, as a stronger rand and a bumper harvest helped to curb prices. Inflation slowed from 5.7% in February, reaching its lowest since July 2006, the Pretoria-based statistics office said. (Bloomberg)
•	Federal Reserve officials restated their intention to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero for an "extended period" and saw signs of life in the job market. "The labor market is beginning to improve," the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement, after last month saying it was "stabilizing." Officials also said growth in household spending has "picked up recently." (Bloomberg) SPOT / CASH INDEX LEVELS TODAY    5215.45 ( -1.75 %) -92.90          1 2 3 Resistance 5281.65 5347.85   5387.45   Support 5175.85 5136.25 5070.05 17380.08 ( -1.76 %) -310.54         1 2 3 Resistance 17567.59 17755.09 17866.60 Support 17268.58 17157.07 16969.57

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 

Above 5228 level, expect short covering up to 5257-5259 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5287-5289 zone by non-stop. 

Support at 5207 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 5188 level by non-stop. 

Below 5156-5158 zone, expect panic up to 5127-5129 zone by non-stop. 

On Positive Side, cross above 5356-5358 zone can take it up to 5386-5388 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

Short-Term Investors: 

Bearish Trend. 

Down Side Target at 5049.20. 

Stop Loss at 5346.80.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

DABUR FUTURES 

FMCG firm Dabur yesterday said it was looking at further hiking the prices of some of its products between 3-5 per cent to offset the surging input costs. 

"We are watching right now ... If there is no ease in the inflation, we will look at increasing the prices of some of the categories," Dabur India Chief Executive Officer Sunil Duggal told PTI.

Asked by how much the company is likely to increase rates, he said the price change could vary between 3 per cent and 5 per cent. 

Technicals: DABUR FUTURES 

Went up yesterday & in line with the expectations. But do not get excited & it was speculative rally too.  

If continue to rally, then expect a jump up to 190.90 level by non-stop. If goes down against expectations, then expect slide up to 174.50 level by non-stop.

BANKBARODA MAY FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding)

 Bank of Baroda on Wednesday reported 20.41% growth in its net profit to Rs 906.28 crore in the fourth quarter of FY10, as against Rs 752.69 crore achieved in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal. The bank has declared a dividend of 150% for the year FY10.  

The bank's total income rose to Rs 5,120.7 crore during the period as compared with Rs 4,992.41 crore recorded in the same period a year ago. Interest income grew 5.2% during the period to Rs 4,353.84 crore as against Rs 4138.78 crore.  

However, other income of the bank dipped 10.16% to Rs 766.89 crore from Rs 853.63 crore as the bank's profit on sale of investment fell Rs 200 crore during the period. Net NPA of the bank declined marginally to 0.34% from 0.31%.  

Technicals: BANKBARODA MAY FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding)

Real Buying taken place in last 5 trading days. 

I am expecting further uptrend up to 743.00 level. If goes down against expectations, then expect slide up to 632.00 level and have caution. Risk is too high.

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION 

Yesterday's rally was surprising. Technically Real Buying too.  

I am expecting further uptrend & you can expect uptrend up to 34.45 level by non-stop. If goes down against expectations, then expect slide up to 6.70 level and have caution.

HINDALCO 180 PUT OPTION 

Yesterday's rally was surprising. Technically Real Buying too. 

I am expecting further uptrend & you can expect uptrend up to 4.10 level by non-stop. If goes down against expectations, then expect slide up to 1.50 level and have caution.

Equity:

TECHM (NSE Cash)  

AT&T Inc. (T) Wednesday sold its entire 7% stake in Tech Mahindra Ltd. (532775.BY) through two block deals for about INR6.55 billion ($147 million), leaving analysts worried that this could hurt outsourcing business from the U.S. telecommunications major to the Indian software services provider.  

The stake sale comes just a month after AT&T International Inc., a unit of AT&T, bought an 8.07% stake, or about 9.9 million shares, in Tech Mahindra from Mahindra-BT Investment Co. (Mauritius) Ltd. for $34.6 million as part of a 2005 agreement with the Indian company.  

AT&T sold just over 1% stake earlier this month and the balance 8.6 million shares Wednesday at about INR762 apiece, two people familiar with the matter told Dow Jones Newswires.  

"The buyers were more than one, but LIC (Life Insurance Corp.) bought 88% of the stake sold," one of the persons said, but didn't name the other buyers.  

According to data on the Bombay Stock Exchange Web site, AT&T International sold 4.3 million shares and state-run LIC bought 3.76 million shares. The BSE data didn't give details of other buyers.  

An equal number of shares were sold on the National Stock Exchange, according to FactSet data. 

AT&T is Tech Mahindra's second-largest client after BT Group PLC, contributing 18% to 20% of total revenue. BT Group owns 30.83% of the Indian company.

"Our understanding is that AT&T was giving business to the company (Tech Mahindra) because of the stake. Now, Tech Mahindra's ability to win new business from AT&T in the future in a competitive market will be a concern," a Mumbai-based analyst, who didn't wish to be named, said.  

Tech Mahindra competes with larger peers such as Infosys Technologies Ltd., Wipro Ltd. and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. for contracts from AT&T and other global companies.  

Technicals: TECHM (NSE Cash)  

Fall expected on yesterday & fallen in line with the expectations. Fall may be restricted up to 750.30 level & if does not break & close this level then expect rebound too.

If rebounds, then expect short covering up to 797.80 level.

ICICIBANK (NSE Cash) 

ICICI Bank, a leading private sector bank in India, has been ranked 45th among the top 100 most valuable global brands according to the BrandZ Top 100 Global Brands Report, becoming the first and only Indian brand to feature in this list, said an official release on Wednesday. 

According to Chanda Kochhar, MD & CEO, ICICI Bank, "The BrandZ report is of special significance to us as it is a global recognition of the value of the ICICI brand based on customers' perceptions about the brand. It reaffirms our commitment towards deepening our relationship with our customers. " 

Developed by the leading research agency Millward Brown, the BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands ranking is now in its fifth year. 

It is the only study to combine measures of brand equity based on interviews with over a million consumers globally about thousands of global "consumer facing" and business-to-business brands with a rigorous analysis of the financial and business performance of each company (using data from Bloomberg and Datamonitor) to separate the value that brand plays in driving business revenue and market capitalisation.  

Technicals:ICICI BANK

Fall expected on yesterday & fallen in line with the expectations.  

Fall may continue up to 883.85 level and have caution.  If rebounds, then expect short covering up to 940.95 level. It looks that, risk is on higher side.

INVESTMENT VIEW

Welspun Gujarat 

 Higher realizations boost profit; maintain Buy 

       Pipe margin better than expected. Welspun's consolidated 4Q net profit at Rs1.7bn was higher than our expectation on higher realisation on pipes, amidst lower-than-expected sales volume. We expect accretion to its order book to accelerate going forward, given strong and growing international pipe demand.     

       Expect order book to strengthen. Welspun had an order book of Rs64.3bn at end-Mar '10. Though the order book might look lower in value terms, the tonnage at 790 kMT is comparable, and implies that earnings coverage is higher than that implied by the headline number.  

       Welspun planning to go closer to emerging demand centres.  At the analyst meet, management reiterated that they plan to grow their presence near demand centres and are exploring various opportunities including the Middle East .  

       Capacity ramp-up, backward integration to boost earnings. Welspun is increasing pipe capacity from 1.5m tons now to 2.0m by FY12, with 0.4m tons addition expected by end FY11. In addition, its backward-integration strategy (plate-cum-coil mill) is likely to lead to a rise in margins with the commissioning of coil mills in 4Q. We estimate earnings CAGR of 19% over FY10-12e. 

 (Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	28-Apr-2010	2566.17	2697.3	-131.13

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	28-Apr-2010	1894.25	1570.15	324.1

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer:

"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."

-- 

Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 28th April 2010

Today Morning http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/morning-brief/morning-brief-28Apr2010.htm

Derivatives EOD report on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/derivative-strategy/derivative-EOD-27-Apr-2010.htm

Corporate News Headline
•	Patni Computer Systems Ltd said it secured a multi-million dollar five-year IT and back office services deal from Universal American Corp, a US-based senior health insurance firm. (BS)
•	ONGC may be asked to set up a 4.5-6 million tons refinery in Rajasthan if the state government agrees to pick up 26% stake in the Rs. 92.30 bn project, besides giving a slew of fiscal incentives. (BS)
•	JSW Energy posted a consolidated net profit of Rs. 2.73 bn for the quarter ended March 31, 2010. The company had a net profit of Rs. 238 mn during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
•	Six core infrastructure industries grew by a healthy 7.2% in March against 3.3% in the year-ago period, reflecting firm industrial recovery. The key sectors- crude, petroleum refinery products, coal, electricity, cement and finished steel - also showed marked improvement in March when compared to the 4.7% in February. (BS)
•	Confidence among US consumers increased in April to the highest level since September 2008 as Americans became more upbeat about the labor market. The Conference Board's confidence index rose more than forecast, to 57.9 from 52.3 in March, according to the New York- based private research group. (Bloomberg)
•	Greece had its credit rating cut to junk by Standard and Poor's and forecast investors would be paid no more than half their initial outlay in the event of any restructuring of debt. S&P lowered its long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Greece to BB+ and B, respectively, from BBB+ and A-2. The outlook is negative. (Bloomberg) SPOT / CASH INDEX LEVELS TODAY    5308.35 ( -0.26 %) -14.10          1 2 3 Resistance 5325.47 5342.58   5354.62   Support 5296.32 5284.28 5267.17 17690.62 ( -0.31 %) -54.66         1 2 3 Resistance 17747.06 17803.50 17837.75 Support 17656.37 17622.12 17565.68

Strong & Weak Stocks

This is list of 10 strong stocks

DCB, Indian Bank, Uco Bank, LITL, Pir Health, GMR Infra, GT Offshore, Tata Chem, Sintex & Andhra Bank.  

And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks

Renuka, Triveni, Balrampur Chini, Bajaj Hind, Sun Pharma, Maruti, McDowell, Tech Mahindra, BEL & HDIL.

The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 

Below 5298 level, selling may continue up to 5291-5293 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5278-5280 zone by non-stop. 

Hurdles at 5319 & 5326 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 5331-5333 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5344-5346 zone by non-stop. 

Sell if touches 5348-5350 zone. Stop Loss at 5361-5363 zone. 

On Negative Side, break below 5274-5276 zone can create panic up to 5261-5263 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:

 Bullish Trend. 

Up Side Target at 5476.55. 

Stop Loss at 5217.05.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

IDFC FUTURES 

Infrastructure Development Finance Company Ltd (IDFC) has informed the BSE that the Board of Directors of the company at its meeting held on April 27, 2010, approved, in principle, a plan to raise Tier 1 and / or Tier 2 capital up to Rs 3500 crore for meeting future growth needs. This is expected to be raised through issue of appropriate equity or quasi-equity instruments in one or more tranches over the next 12 months.

Technicals: 

Fall expected on yesterday. But Speculative Selling taken place on yesterday. 

Assuming that if this downtrend continues, then fall may continue up to 153.25 level and have caution.  

On Positive Side, if Short Covering Starts then expect a jump up to 173.45 level. Risk is slightly on higher side.

GMRINFRA FUTURES (2 Day's Holding) 

The company recently raised Rs 1399.50 crore from a qualified institutional placement at Rs 62.20 per share.

Technicals: 

Real Buying taken place in last 2 days. 

Assuming that if this uptrend continues, then rally may continue up to 73.70 level by non-stop. It will be great rally too. 

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a fall up to 62.40 level and have caution. Slightly risk is too high.

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 5300 PUT OPTION 

Fall expected on yesterday. But Speculative Selling taken place on yesterday. 

Assuming that if this downtrend continues, then fall may continue up to 19.40 level and

have caution. It looks that downtrend may be limited. 

On Positive Side, if Short Covering Starts then expect a jump up to 32.00 level.

SBIN 2200 PUT OPTION 

Yesterday's Rally was surprising. But Speculative too. 

Assuming that if this uptrend continues, then rally may continue up to 15.70 level by non-stop. 

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a fall up to 4.05 level and have caution.

Equity:

TATAMOTORS (NSE Cash)

Tata Motors will start production of Nano, the world's cheapest car, from its Sanand plant in Gujarat from April 30. 

The plant had been moved to Gujarat after Mamata Banerjee and Trinamool Congress forced Tata Motors to withdraw from West Bengal and abandon the plant built at Singur to manufacture Tata Nano. 

As of now, the Nano is being made at the company's Pantnagar plant in small volume. 

The Sanand plant will have installed capacity of 250,000 cars annually. Tata Motors has so far delivered about 30,000 Nanos... 

Technicals: 

Yesterday's Selling was a surprise. But Speculative too. 

Assuming that if this downtrend continues, then fall may continue up to 829.30 level and have caution. 

On Positive Side, if Short Covering Starts then expect a jump up to 863.05 level. Risk is Slightly on higher side.

MARUTI (NSE Cash) 

Europe's largest carmaker, Volkswagen, has asked its Indian operations to send proposals on Maruti Suzuki's models which could be sold under the VW brand. 

This is facilitated by the fact that VW owns a 20 percent stake in Suzuki Motor, which in-turn owns a majority stake in Maruti. 

VW are looking at Ritz to be sold under the Skoda brand and the newest fugly dudly to hit the shores, WagonR, to be inducted under the VW wing. 

The cars would be assembled at the VW plant at Chakan and that the cars would cost 5-7 percent more than the similar siblings by Maruti. VW also plans to use the superior K-series and DDIS engines in some of its cars for India. 

Under the proposal, Skoda, which is owned by Volkswagen, may use Maruti's new Wagon platform for its budget car model. 

The going may not be so easy for VW this time because – Maruti supplies the A-star to Nissan in Europe as the Pixo and their famous diesel mills are from Fiat and the Ritz is sold as the Opel Agila in Europe.

Technicals: 

Fall expected on yesterday. But Speculative Selling taken place on yesterday. 

Assuming that if this downtrend continues, then fall may continue up to 1222.85 level and have caution. 

On Positive Side, if Short Covering Starts then expect a jump up to 1335.15 level. Risk is too high.

INVESTMENT VIEW

Dewan Housing: Growth With Value 

Capitalizing on domain experience and niche presence: Given its rich domain experience of over 25 years, large presence, strong customer relationships, and quick turnaround time, we believe that Dewan Housing Finance is sweetly poised to capture the opportunity presented by the growing demand for housing in rural and semi-urban regions.

 

Being a niche player in the housing finance business, with a focus on middle and low income customers in tier-II and tier-III cities, it enjoys higher yields and margins than peers. Its average incremental ticket size was Rs 840,000 as on December 2009 compared with ~Rs1.4m for LIC Housing Finance.

 

Efficient utilization of capital; strong growth to continue: DHFL has been one of the fastest growing housing finance companies in the last six years. Its loan book and disbursements registered a CAGR of 39% and 37%, respectively (well above peers) over FY04-09. In 1QFY10, DHFL raised Rs3b through equity dilution, taking its tier-I ratio to 20%.

 

Post capital raising, growth rates have remained very strong and significantly higher than industry. In 9MFY10, loans and disbursements grew 55% and 78% YoY, respectively. On a lower base and higher ticket size, we expect loan growth of 40% CAGR and disbursement growth of 37% CAGR over FY10-12.

Superior margins, high asset quality: Though its cost of funds is higher and it has low exposure to the non-retail segment, DHFL's niche presence enables it to earn superior margins. Also, despite exposure to high-risk low-income customers, DHFL's asset quality is relatively high. Its gross NPA ratio was <1.6% over FY03-09 and net NPA ratio was 96bp as of 9MFY10. Its domain expertise and its cardinal principle of lending only to "end users" enables it to sustain asset quality.

Fee income initiatives gaining traction: DHFL is focusing on growing fee income through insurance distribution, project marketing and by providing technical services to developers. In 9MFY10, DHFL's third-party distribution income was Rs175m as compared to just Rs30m in FY09. Fee income (including processing fees) was Rs450m in 9MFY10 as compared to Rs170m in FY09. We factor in fee income of Rs1b in FY11.

Offers strong growth-value combination: DHFL offers a strong combination of growth and value, with superior asset quality. The stock trades at 1.3x FY12E BV and 5.9x FY12E EPS. 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	27-Apr-2010	2701.19	2865.48	-164.29

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	27-Apr-2010	993.73	992.64	1.09

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer:

"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 27th April 2010

Derivatives EOD Report on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/derivative-strategy/derivative-EOD-26-Apr-2010.htm

Today Market Update on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/morning-brief/morning-brief-27Apr2010.htm

Corporate News Headline
•	Sterlite Industries reported a jump of over two-folds in its consolidated net profit of Rs. 13.81 bn for the quarter ended March 31, 2010. (BS)
•	Maruti Suzuki reported a nearly three-fold jump in net profit at Rs. 6.56 bn for the quarter ending March 31, 2010. (BS)
•	ONGC said it has added 83 million tonnes of oil and gas reserves in the 2009-10 fiscal, the highest in two decades; even as production was lower than the target. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
•	The government said as many as 495 central-sector projects costing Rs. 200 mn and above are running behind schedule which has resulted in cost escalation by Rs. 551.75 bn. (BS)
•	Hungary's central bank cut the benchmark interest rate for the 10th consecutive month today and said it doesn't rule out market intervention if the forint continues to strengthen. The Magyar Nemzeti Bank reduced the two-week deposit rate to 5.25% from 5.5%. (Bloomberg)
•	German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she won't release Greek rescue funds until the country shows it's got a "sustainable, credible" plan to cut its budget deficit. "I've said for weeks that Greece must do its homework first," Merkel said. "We're not doing this because we believe Greece needs help. We're doing it because we're interested in the euro's stability." (Bloomberg)

Strong & Weak stocks

This is list of 10 strong stocks

Indian Bank, DCB, Uco Bank, Pir Health, Andhra Bank, Sintex, Yes Bank, Allahabad Bank, Axis Bank & Corp Bank.  

And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks

Renuka, Triveni, Balrampur Chini, HDIL, Bajaj Hind, Sun Pharma, McDowell, BEL, Punj Lloyd & Maruti.

The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend 

SPOT/CASH INDEX LEVELS TODAY

	5322.45	( 0.35 %)	18.35
		1	2	3
Resistance		5343.42	5364.38	5386.42
Support		5300.42	5278.38	5257.42

	17745.28		( 0.29 %)	51.08
			1	2	3
Resistance			17817.09	17888.89	17951.31
Support			17682.87	17620.45	17548.65

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 

Above 5334-5336 zone, rally may continue up to 5338 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 5348-5350 zone by non-stop. 

Multiple Support at 5312-5314 zone & at 5320 level. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 5309 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 5298-5300 zone by non-stop. 

Buy if touches 5275-5277 zone. Stop Loss at 5261-5263 zone. 

On Positive Side, cross above 5380-5382 zone can take it up to 5394-5396 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:

 Bullish Trend. 

Up Side Target at 5476.55. 

Stop Loss at 5217.05.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

INDIANB FUTURES 

Shares of Indian Bank rose as much as 10% after saying that its fourth-quarter profit rose to Rs4.1bn from Rs3.94bn in the same quarter last year. Total income increased to Rs23.18bn for the quarter ended March 31, 2010 from Rs21.48bn in the year-ago quarter. 

For the Year ended March 31, 2010, the bank posted a net profit of Rs15.55bn compared to Rs12.45bn for the year ended March 31, 2009. Total income increased to Rs90.31bn for the year from Rs78.66bn for the year ended March 31, 2009 

Technicals: INDIANB FUTURES 

Rally expected on yesterday & spectacular rally. Real Buying too. 

Assuming that, if rally continues then it can zoom up to 245.75 level by non-stop and that should be considered as a huge rally too. 

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then it can tumble up to 195.05 level by non-stop and have caution. Will you take this much of risk?

STER FUTURES (3 Day's Holding) 

Sterlite said on Monday its board had approved a 1-for-1 bonus share issue and a 2-for-1 stock split. 

Sterlite, which produces aluminium, copper, zinc and lead, reported March quarter net profit jumped to 13.81 billion rupees from 5.98 billion a year ago. Net sales rose to 71.11 billion, from 43.4 billion a year ago. 

Technicals: STERLITE

Real Buying taken place in last 3 trading days. 

Assuming that, if rally continues then it can zoom up to 912.05 level by non-stop

and that should be considered as a huge rally too. 

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then it can tumble up to 786.95 level by non-stop and have caution. Will you take this much of risk?

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 5300 CALL OPTION 

Do not get excited about yesterday's rally. Speculative Buying too. 

Assuming that, if rally continues then it can zoom up to 75.45 level by non-stop

and that should be good news for the Bulls. 

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then it can tumble up to 12.75 level by non-stop and have caution.

HINDALCO 180 CALL OPTION 

Yesterday's rally was surprising & Real Buying too. 

Assuming that, if rally continues then it can zoom up to 6.10 level by non-stop

and that should be surprising. So gains may be limited from current levels. 

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then it can tumble up to 2.45 level by non-stop and have caution.

Equity:

ICICIBANK (NSE Cash) 

ICICI Bank, the country's largest private bank, posted a 35.20% year-on-year growth in its net profit for the quarter ending March 2010, to Rs 1,005.57 crore. Profitability was mainly helped by 7.8% decline in operating expenses, 8% decline in provisions and slower rate of growth in tax outgo (up 23.3%).  

Technicals: ICICIBANK

Yesterday's fall was a surprise. But Speculative Selling too. 

Assuming that, if fall continues then it can tumble up to 916.65 level by non-stop and have caution. 

On Positive Side, if Short Covering Starts then it can zoom up to 998.15 level by non-stop.

RELIANCE (NSE Cash) 

Stung by lower-than-expected fourth quarter profits from Reliance Industries (RIL), analysts have cut their future earnings estimates for the company. On Friday, RIL had reported a net profit of Rs 4,710 crore, lower than consensus expectations by around Rs 300 crore, even as revenues doubled thanks to the merger of its former refining subsidiary. 

Technicals: RELIANCE

Yesterday's fall was a surprise. But Speculative Selling too. 

Assuming that, if fall continues then it can tumble up to 1027.20 level by non-stop and have caution. 

On Positive Side, if Short Covering Starts then it can zoom up to 1116.30 level by non-stop.

INVESTMENT VIEW

Granules India 

Granules India Ltd (BSE: 532482, NSE: GRANULES) has begun supplies of finished dosages to a large multinational pharmaceutical company. The multi-year agreement targets the purchase of in excess of 1.5 billion doses on an annualized basis. This annualized demand represents upwards of 25% of the Company's finished dosage capacity.  

Commenting on the deal, Mr.C.Krishna Prasad, Managing Director stated, "We are excited to take this next step forward as it validates our vertically-integrated model. We take satisfaction in the fact that our partners can rely on Granules to provide products throughout the pharmaceutical value chain in both a cost-effective and efficient manner. This commitment will enable our finished dosage plant to ramp up production and should substantially add to our top and bottom-line figures. Going forward, we expect the finished dosage plant to drive future growth and profitability at Granules." 

Strong on Financials, Low PE leaves upside for Re-rating the stock 

Granules India Ltd., a fully backward integrated formulation manufacturer, announced financial results for its fiscal year 2010 third quarter ended December 31, 2009. On a consolidated basis, Granules posted revenue of Rs. 122.40 Cr., an increase of 24.7% over the same period last year and a net profit of Rs. 6.56 Cr. 

Quarter ended December 31, 2009 

Net Sales: Rs. 122.40 Cr, as compared to the same period last year at Rs. 98.14 Cr. The increase is attributed to higher production at the Company's facilities and an increase in sales within the formulation division. 

Net Profit: Rs. 6.56 Cr, as compared to the same period last year at Rs. 0.49 Cr. 

EPS: Basic EPS was Rs. 3.27 as compared to the same period last year at Rs. 0.25. 

On a standalone basis, the Company achieved sales of Rs. 101.34 Cr. and a net profit of Rs. 5.87 Cr. This is the first time the standalone unit has crossed Rs. 100 Cr. in sales. 

"This was a record setting quarter due to strong performance from all our divisions. I am particularly excited about our formulation division, which continues to grow rapidly and now comprises over 9% of our sales. This division will ramp up significantly over the next few quarters as we commence work on several key contracts" said C. Krishna Prasad, Managing Director of Granules.  

About Granules India Ltd., 

Granules India Ltd. is a fully integrated pharmaceutical manufacturer. The Company manufactures several strategic Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and multiple Pharmaceutical Formulation Intermediates (PFIs), which are distributed in over 50 countries. The Company has recently forayed into the manufacturing of finished dosages with a plant that has a capacity of 6 billion tablets per annum, scalable to 12 billion tablets. This facility will allow Granules to offer products across the value chain. 

 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	26-Apr-2010	2121.55	1887.32	234.23

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	26-Apr-2010	821.96	895.65	-73.69

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer:

"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381