Friday, June 5, 2009

Market Outlook for 5th June 2009

NIFTY FUTURES
RESISTANCE
4587
4602
4638
4655
4706
4830
SUPPORT
4572
4548
4497
4446
4427
4376
watch >>>>>>>SUZLON,UNITECH,ISPAT,RNRL,RELCAP
 
Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:
Jp Hydro, Wel Guj, Sujlon, Sobha, Laxmi Mach, Tech M, Aban, NIIIT Ltd, Voltas & IVR Prime.
And this is list of 10  Weak :
Hero Honda, Bank Broda, Glaxo, Sterlin Bio, Dabur, Infosys Tech, Tata Power, Cipla, Bharti Airtel & Sun Pharma. 
Nifty is in Up Trend .
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 4585-4587 zone, rally may continue up to 4602 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 4636-4638 zone by non-stop.
Support at 4548 & 4572 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4495-4497 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4444-4446 zone by non-stop.

Buy if touches 4427-4429 zone. Stop Loss at 4376-4378 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 4653-4655 zone can take it up to 4704-4706 zone. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.
 
Short-Term Investors: 
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop. 
 
BSE SENSEX:
Higher opening expected. Uptrend should start. 
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14931 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 16157 level for your short positions too.
3 closes below 14931 level, it can tumble up to 13704 level.
 
 
POSITONAL BUY, CRUCIAL LEVELS TO WATCH OUT FOR:
Buy SUZLON ENERGY (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.
If trades above 133 level, then buying may continue up to 140 level. Cross above 144 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 133 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 129 level.
 
Buy UNITECH (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.
If trades above 95 level, then buying may continue up to 100 level. Cross above 103 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 95 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 92 level.
 
Buy RELIANCE CAPITAL (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.
If trades above 1009 level, then buying may continue up to 1061 level. Cross above 1093 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 1009 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 979 level.
 
Buy ISPAT INDUSTRIES FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.
If trades above 27 level, then buying may continue up to 29 level. Cross above 30 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 27 level, then traders can expect profit booking.
 
Buy RELIANCE NATURAL RESOURCES FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.
If trades above 91 level, then buying may continue up to 96 level. Cross above 99 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 91 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 88 level.
 

SPOT LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   4572.65 ( 0.93 %) 41.95       
  1 2 3
Resistance 4577.53 4624.37   4673.83  
Support 4481.23 4431.77 4384.93

BSE Sensex  15008.68 ( 0.93 %) 137.78     
  1 2 3
Resistance 15033.69 15196.48 15346.53
Support 14720.85 14570.80 14408.01
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 04-Jun-2009 3527.7 3062.36 +465.34
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 04-Jun-2009 1352.23 1882.43 -530.2
 
Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,750.24. Up by 74.96 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 942.46. Up by 10.70 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,830.25. Up by 24.10 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 47.20/21 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its previous close of 47.07/08.
 
DELIVERY
Satyam Computers-Outperformer 
Over a period of 6 months Satyam may turn out to be a multi-bagger as the management of Tech Mahindra takes a grasp of things, and makes things turn-around.
Over the 1st 3 months of the Satyam acquisition, most of the client and revenue erosion had already happened, but things have stabilized operationally. Over the next 3-4 qtrs, as more clarity emerges, PE multiple for Tech companies would have expended to ~12x while Infosys trades @16-17xFY10E earnings.

Lets not forget that the Satyam acquisition would put Tech M among the top 5 offshore vendors from India as well as reduce dependence on BT from ~60% currently to ~25%. Further it shall help rerate the stock on scale size (revenues for the combined entity at ~US$ 2 bn+) as well as a more diversified revenue profile Vs. earlier when TechM had a single vertical focus (Telecom). 

There are likely to be earnings upgrades panning into Tech Mah-Satyam combine as more clarity emerges. That coupled with a likely multiple expansion should make Tech Mahindra a good bet at current levels, as also Satyam.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381