Friday, October 29, 2010

Market Outlook for 29th Oct 2010

Strong & Weak  futures 
This is list of 10 strong strong: 
ABG Ship, Dena Bank, IDBI, Vijaya Bank, Canara Bank, Federal Bank, TCS, Orchid Chem, Bank Of Baroda & PTC. 
And this is list of 10 Weak stocks 
Finan Tech, BRFL, Educomp, IDEA, Pir Health, Sesa Goa, Apollo Tyre, IVRCL Infra, Aban & On Mobile.
The daily trend of nifty is in Downtrend 

  • Supp / Resis SPOT/ CASH INDEX LEVELS

Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 6049.836111.97 6152.83
Support 5946.835905.97 5843.83
Sensex Resistance 20127.89 20314.75 20444.03
Support 19811.75 19682.47 19495.61

Market Outlook
 
 Yesterday, Nifty witnessed a sharp sell-off in the last trading hour and closed below 6,000 mark after taking crucial support near 5,966. Falling below this level Nifty could test 5,950-5,932 level while on upside 6,060-6,080 may act as resistance for the day. Moreover, today is the first day of new contract and Nifty can show some positive trend with major support at 5,950 while the resistance at 6,080 levels. Indian market is likely to open on negative note following weak cues from global markets amid continued worries over the Fed Reserve's plans to stimulate the economy. Investor's will eye on Q2 results of companies like IOC, ITC, Hero Honda, Federal Bank, ABB, Shipping Corp, which are due today.  
 
    Tip for the day
 
 

ABG SHIPYARD (BUY)

  • RSI is at 89 oversold territory showing positive crossover indicating uptrend.
  • Stochastic is moving in oversold territory showing positive crossover also indicating upside.
  • MACD is showing bullish crossover.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

470.75

BUY

475/482/490

 460

450/500

VARUN INDUSTRY (BUY)

  • RSI is at neutral territory at 66 levels and showing positive crossover moving towards oversold territory.
  • Stochastic is at 47 levels and it has given a buy crossover.
  • MACD is likely to cross its signal line from below.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

237.05

BUY

240/245/250

232

215/260

ASIAN PAINTS (BUY)

  • RSI is showing a reversal trend after a sharp correction.
  • Stochastic is at 42 levels and it has given a buy crossover.
  • The stock has just crossed its 08 days exponential moving average and it is trading above it indicating a short term bullish trend.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

2648.45

BUY

2670/2700/2730

2610

2580/2750

RAYMOND (SELL)

  • RSI is at 62 level neutral territory an on brink of entering into negative crossover.
  • Stochastic is moving in oversold territory showing negative crossover also indicating downside.
  • MACD is likely to show negative divergence.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

421.45

SELL

416/410/400

428

400/450

UNITED BANK (SELL)

  • RSI is in profit booking phase.
  • Stochastic is at 31 levels and it has given a sell crossover.
  • MACD showing negative divergence
CMPBuy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

129.20

SELL

127.5/125/121

134

115/140

 
TRADING CALLS
ABAN ABV798 T 804 810 BLW 780 T 774 766 & ABGSHIP ABV 472 T 476 480 484 BLW 458 T 454 450 & ACC ABV 998 T 1004 1010 1018 BLW 980 T 974 966 & BAJAJAUTO ABV 1495 T 1505 1525 BLW 1480 T 1470 1460 & BOIB ABV 510 T 520 530 BLW 500 T 490 480 & BOB ABV 1020 T 1030 1040 BLW 1005 T 995 985 & BHEL ABV 2475 T 2485 2495 BLW 2435 T 2425 2415 & BHUSANSTEL ABV 518 T 524 530 BLW 504 T 498 492 & BIOCON ABV 428 T 432 436 BLW 420 T 416 412 & BOSCHL ABV 6215 T 6230 6245 BLW 6145 T 6130 6115 & BPCL ABV 725 T 735 745 BLW 715 T 705 695 & CAIRN ABV 322 T 326 330 BLW 316 T 312 308 & DLF ABV 360 T 364 368 BLW 352 T 348 344 & DENABANK ABV 141 T 143 145 BLW 137 T 135 132 & EDUCOM ABV 570 T 580 590 BLW 555 T 545 535 & GAIL ABV 495 T 500 505 BLW 485 T 480 475 & GLAXO ABV 2275 T 2290 2310 BLW 2245 T 2230 2215 & GRASIM ABV 2285 T 2300 2320 BLW 2255 T 2240 2220 & FEDRALBANK ABV 472 T 476 480 BLW 466 T 462 458 & TATACEM ABV 432 T 436 440 BLW 422 T 418 414 & TCS ABV 1060 T 1070 1080 BLW 1045 T 1035 1025 & TECHM ABV 760 T 770 780 BLW 740 T 730 720 & TISCO ABV 610 T 620 630 BLW 600 T 590 580 & TELCO ABV 1205 T 1215 1225 BLW 1185 T 1175 1165 & TATAPOWER ABV 1420 T 1430 1440 BLW 1400 T 1390 1380 & TULIP ABV 181 T 184 188 BLW 176 T 173 170 & YESBANK ABV 364 T 368 372 BLW 356 T 352 348 & VOLTAM ABV 900 T 910 920 BLW 885 T 875 865 & ZEETV ABV 280 T 284 288 BLW 276 T 272 268 & WIPRO ABV 430 T 435 440 BLW 425 T 420 415 & UNIPHOS ABV 208 T 212 216 BLW 204 T 200 196 & TITAN ABV 3550 T 3570 3590 BLW 3460 T 3420 3400 
; HDIL ABV 256 T 259 262 BLW 250 T 247 244 & HDFCBANK ABV 2288 T 2300 2315 BLW 2255 T 2240 2220 & HDFC ABV 695 T 705 715 BLW 685 T 675 665 & HEROHONDA ABV 1915 T 1925 1935 BLW 1885 T 1875 1865 & HINDALCO ABV 218 T 221 224 BLW 215 T 212 209 & HPCL ABV 495 T 500 505 BLW 485 T 480 475 & ICICI ABV 1102 T 1112 1122 BLW 1084 T 1074 1064 & INFOSYS ABV 3000 T 3020 3040 BLW 2960 T 2940 2920 & IBREAL ABV 197 T 199 201 BLW 195 T 193 191 & IOB ABV 167 T 169 171 BLW 162 T 160 158 & IDBI ABV 181 T 183 185 BLW 177 T 175 173 & JETAIR ABV 815 T 825 835 BLW 795 T 785 775 & KOTAKBANK ABV 485 T 490 495 BLW 475 T 470 465 & LIC ABV 1380 T 1390 1400 BLW 1350 T 1340 1320 & LNT ABV 2020 T 2030 2040 BLW 1990 T 1980 1970 & LUPIN ABV 448 T 452 456 BLW 438 T 434 430 & MNM ABV 735 T 745 755 BLW 725 T 715 705 & ONGC ABV 1315 T 1325 1335 BLW 1295 T 1285 1275 & OFSS ABV 2245 T 2260 2275 BLW 2200 T 2185 2170 & REC ABV 366 T 370 374 BLW 362 T 358 354 & RELAINCE ABV 1092 T 1100 1110 BLW 1076 T 1070 1060 & RELINFRA ABV 1066 T 1076 1086 BLW 1048 T 1038 1028 & MRF ABV 9625 T 9650 9675 BLW 9500 T 9475 9450 & RCOM ABV 182 T 185 188 BLW 179 T 176 173 & MARUTI ABV 1540 T 1550 1560 BLW 1425 T 1515 1505 & ORCHID ABV 315 T 320 325 BLW 300 T 295 290 & PNBBANK ABV 1330 T 1345 1360 BLW 1300 T 1285 1270 & RANBAXY ABV 588 T 594 600 BLW 578 T 572 566 & SBIBANK ABV 3215 T 3230 3245 BLW 3170 T 3155 3140 & SESAGOA ABV 328 T 332 336 BLW 322 T 318 314 & SUNPHARMA ABV 2125 T 2140 2160 BLW 2100 T 2080 2060 

    US markets
 
 US stocks closed on a mixed note as investors remained hesitant to make any significant moves ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting as well as the midterm elections. The lack of conviction came despite an unexpected large drop in weekly jobless claims to a three-month low. Initial jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 4,34,000 in the week ended October 23rd. In earnings, 3M reported third-quarter net income of USD 1.53 per share and its revenues of USD 6.9 billion which edged out analyst estimates. Additionally, Exxon Mobil posted its third-quarter net income rose to USD 1.44 per share, beating estimates. After the markets closed for trading in the previous session, Symantec posted second quarter earnings and revenues that topped estimates. Meanwhile, British biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca reported a sharp decline in its third-quarter profit as generic competition.  
 
    European markets
 
 European markets closed higher as investors cheered on better than expected earnings reports and encouraging economic confidence number of Eurozone. Resource stocks turned in strong performances alongside firm commodity prices. On economic front, economic confidence in the Eurozone improved in October to 104.1 from 103.2 in September. On earning front, Royal Dutch Shell reported an 18% rise in third-quarter profits of USD 3.5 billion on a current cost of supplies basis, a closely watched post-tax measure that removes the effect of price changes on inventories. Also, Eni SpA, Italy's largest natural gas and oil company posted third-quarter net profit rose 39% due largely to the rise in oil prices from last year's lows.  
 
    Indian markets (Prev Day)
 
 The domestic bourses continued its third straight losing streak as broadbased selling has dragged the benchmark indices in the negative terrain erasing all the intraday gains. The markets kicked off the session on an upbeat note and the morning sentiment was boosted as the most of the Asian indices opened strong and the stocks rose for the first time in three days, led by financial and technology companies, after a flurry of better than estimated corporate results. Since inception, the markets were looking very volatile and the benchmarks were seen tasting the neutral line for a couple of times till mid-session. The second half proved to be full of action and at the onset, the market gained momentum and surged smartly after the food inflation data was released showing significant easing. The bourses were looking strong and continued to make fresh intraday highs till the final thirty minutes of trade, when huge selling pressure emerged and the benchmark indices were seen correcting more than 1.50% from their session highs. Finally, the markets ended well below the baseline, the benchmark Nifty closing below the 6,000 mark. In the sectorial front, the Realty space continued its previous session's weakness and getting hammered the most, ended with losses more than 1.50%. Further, considerable profit booking was witnessed among the Power stocks and the sector as a whole lost more than 1%. Both the Nifty and Sensex showed considerable weakness towards the end and closed well below their respective session highs. The NSE Nifty closed below the 6,000 mark, while the BSE Sensex below the 19,950 level.  
 



IndexLatest1 D Chg(%)YTD(%)
NSE Index (28 Oct 2010) 5987.70 -0.41 15.12
Sensex (28 Oct 2010) 19941.04 -0.32 14.18
Dow Jones Ind. .. (28 Oct 2010) 11113.95 -0.11 6.58
Nasdaq Composit.. (28 Oct 2010) 2507.37 0.16 10.50
Hang Seng (28 Oct 2010) 23210.86 0.20 6.12
Straits Times (28 Oct 2010) 3129.50 0.16 8.00
FTSE 100 (28 Oct 2010) 5677.89 0.56 4.90
CAC 40 (28 Oct 2010) 3834.84 0.50 -2.58
SectorsClose1D Chg(%)
BSE IT 6019.20 -0.42
BSEPSU 10224.48 -0.75
OILGAS 10873.30 -0.47
Advance Decline RatioValue(in Cr.)Exchange
0.36 671.12 SENSEX
0.40 11869.38 NIFTY
   SENSEX    NIFTY
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 330.45 2.62 0.50
Hero Honda Motors Ltd. 1901.25 2.20 10.77
Housing Development Finance Co... 692.30 1.88 29.26
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 330.65 2.70 0.27
Hero Honda Motors Ltd. 1907.75 2.61 11.06
Bharat Petroleum Corporation L... 720.20 2.58 13.32
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. 122.40 -2.24 -16.68
DLF Ltd. 355.15 -2.22 -1.66
NTPC Ltd. 195.20 -1.79 -17.18
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
Steel Authority of India (SAIL... 202.60 -5.02 -16.18
Reliance Capital Ltd. 820.00 -2.91 -4.39
Reliance Power Ltd. 152.95 -2.89 -1.39
Top

Most Active Stocks by value (in Cr)

BSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
SBI 3193.45 -0.50 80.67 251481
RIL 1092.65 -0.88 78.17 716377
Tata Steel 614.40 -1.57 74.73 1223773
ICICI Bank 1106.25 -1.44 41.70 380105
HDFC Bank 2256.10 0.74 27.83 121681
 
NSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
ICICI Bank 1106.75 -1.60 997.82 9111924
RIL 1092.75 -0.98 899.44 8271973
InfosysTechn 2980.20 -0.31 681.54 2279019
SBI 3187.90 0.01 631.49 1970948
HDFC Bank 2254.30 0.55 479.37 2106923
 
Strike Price Value Price %Chg
   Most Active Calls by Contract Value (in Cr)
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6000.00 2589797.64 0.05 94700.00
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6100.00 2486262.08 0.05 13800.00
   Most Active Puts by Contract Value (in Cr)
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6000.00 3501213.56 11.00 23.64
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6100.00 1346746.79 105.90 -38.05
   Most Active Future by Contracts Value (in Cr)
RELIANCE ( 25 Nov 2010 ) - 114734.75 1098.05 0.71
RELIANCE ( 28 Oct 2010 ) - 103566.68 1081.95 1.46
    Commodities
 
 Oil prices climbed higher to end above USD 82. The price rise was supported by positive US jobless claims data and as the dollar weakened on rising worries about the extent of an expected US Federal Reserve monetary easing. Gold prices also settled above USD 1,342 on the scope and concerns over the scope and impact of potential US monetary easing.  
 
    International News
 
 
  • First-time claims for unemployment benefits in the US unexpectedly saw a modest decrease in the week ended October 23rd, with jobless claims falling to a three-month low. The report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 4,34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 4,55,000. 
  • The European Bank For Reconstruction and Development raised the growth outlook for the emerging European nations, while predicting a weak recovery for southeastern countries. EBRD projects 4.2% expansion for Emerging Europe this year, higher than the July's prediction of 3.5%. The region suffered a 5.5% contraction last year. 
  •  Beauty-products seller Avon Products Inc's net income rose 7% in its third quarter, helped by steep gains in Latin America. Avon reported net income of USD 166.7 million compared with USD 156.2 million in the same period last year. 
 
 
    Domestic News
 
 
  •  Essar Shipping Ports & Logistics Ltd.expects to complete demerger of shipping, logistics and oilfields businesses from its ports business in three-four months. Post the demerger, the company will be renamed Essar Ports. 
  •  Edinburgh-based Cairn Energy Plc has said it is in the process of securing "necessary consents and approvals" from the Indian government for the sale of majority stake in its Indian unit to Vedanta Resources. 
  •  Steel Authority of India Ltd, the largest steel producer in India, expects to finalise a joint venture with World No.3 POSCO by mid-December. 
 
 
CurrencyExchange-Rate1D Chg(%)1M Chg(%)
USD 44.49 -0.07 % -1.03 %
EUR 61.56 0.15 % 0.63 %
GBP 70.40 -0.09 % -0.38 %
FIIs ActivityRs. Cr.MTDYTD
Equity in flows 2774.50 87440.90 608688.10
Equity Out flows 2676.70 58320.10 495207.60
Net 97.80 29120.80 113480.60

Buy / Sell (Oct 28, 2010)
  BuySell Net
FII 5496.356446.43 - 950.08
DII 1982.502042.94 - 60.44


*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES. 

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381