Friday, September 17, 2010

Market Outlook 17th Sep 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks: 
Opto Circuits, Apollo Tyre, DLF, Bhushan Steel, HDFC LTD, Hdfc Bank, SBI , ICICI Bank, Maruti & Renuka. 
And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 
GSPL, RCOM, Divi'S Lab, KS Oils, GT Offshore, ABG Ship, Sintex, Hero Honda, Praj Ind & Petronet.
The daily trend of nifty is in Uptrend 
Market does need some correction so that it can becomes healthy to go up again. But over all trend our our market and markets world wide is still up. So till the trend is up, the readers who had bought Nifty on 7th September may go on holding the longs.

  • Supp / Resis spot/cash levels for intraday
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 5881.635934.57 5967.48
Support 5795.785762.87 5709.93
Sensex Resistance 19574.95 19732.40 19828.15
Support 19321.75 19226.00 19068.55

SUPPORT/ RESISTANCE IN CASH /SPOT LEVELS FOR INTRADAY TRADING
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
ABG Shipyard Ltd. NSE 236.90 241.48 234.18 246.07 231.47 248.78 226.88
Apollo Tyres Ltd. NSE 85.25 86.95 83.40 88.65 81.55 90.50 79.85
Bank of Baroda NSE 883.60 905.40 862.40 927.20 841.20 948.40 819.40
Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1203.60 1227.28 1187.58 1250.97 1171.57 1266.98 1147.88
Bhushan Steel Ltd. NSE 1978.85 2019.23 1940.23 2059.62 1901.62 2098.23 1861.23
Divi's Laboratories Ltd. NSE 722.05 740.05 712.00 758.05 701.95 768.10 683.95
DLF Ltd. NSE 349.70 359.38 337.13 369.07 324.57 381.63 314.88
Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd. NSE 300.90 306.07 297.67 311.23 294.43 314.47 289.27
Great Offshore Ltd. NSE 386.60 391.78 383.28 396.97 379.97 400.28 374.78
Gujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd. NSE 27.45 28.38 26.83 29.32 26.22 29.93 25.28
Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. NSE 213.55 218.37 210.37 223.18 207.18 226.37 202.37
Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd. NSE 132.95 134.80 131.80 136.65 130.65 137.80 128.80
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilisers Company Ltd. NSE 124.10 128.33 119.43 132.57 114.77 137.23 110.53
Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd. NSE 64.35 64.90 63.90 65.45 63.45 65.90 62.90
Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals Ltd. NSE 305.10 310.98 296.13 316.87 287.17 325.83 281.28
Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. NSE 107.70 110.30 105.90 112.90 104.10 114.70 101.50
HDFC Bank Ltd. NSE 2395.30 2421.75 2362.10 2448.20 2328.90 2481.40 2302.45
Hero Honda Motors Ltd. NSE 1733.30 1761.75 1713.00 1790.20 1692.70 1810.50 1664.25
ICICI Bank Ltd. NSE 1103.55 1119.37 1092.37 1135.18 1081.18 1146.37 1065.37
K S Oils Ltd. NSE 49.40 50.10 48.80 50.80 48.20 51.40 47.50
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. NSE 1397.30 1415.50 1369.00 1433.70 1340.70 1462.00 1322.50
NSE Index NSE 5828.70 5881.63 5795.78 5934.57 5762.87 5967.48 5709.93
Opto Circuits India Ltd. NSE 322.60 326.18 317.53 329.77 312.47 334.83 308.88
Petronet LNG Ltd. NSE 105.75 107.60 104.60 109.45 103.45 110.60 101.60
Praj Industries Ltd. NSE 75.35 76.70 74.60 78.05 73.85 78.80 72.50
Reliance Communications Ltd. NSE 158.15 161.90 156.00 165.65 153.85 167.80 150.10
Reliance Industries Ltd. NSE 1000.35 1011.40 993.25 1022.45 986.15 1029.55 975.10
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 1053.50 1070.13 1043.68 1086.77 1033.87 1096.58 1017.23
Reliance Natural Resources Ltd. NSE 38.70 39.17 38.42 39.63 38.13 39.92 37.67
Reliance Power Ltd. NSE 155.80 157.65 154.60 159.50 153.40 160.70 151.55
Religare Enterprises Ltd. NSE 480.00 490.62 473.77 501.23 467.53 507.47 456.92
Sintex Industries Ltd. NSE 356.75 366.08 351.33 375.42 345.92 380.83 336.58
State Bank of India NSE 3094.80 3137.87 3055.87 3180.93 3016.93 3219.87 2973.87
State Trading Corporation Of India Ltd. NSE 404.50 411.77 399.92 419.03 395.33 423.62 388.07
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Thursday, September 16, 2010 4:05:01 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 

Eros International Media Limited (Eros) is entering in the capital markets to raise upto Rs. 3,500 mn. The price band has been fixed between Rs. 158 and Rs. 175 per share of face value Rs. 10 each. The issue is being made through the 100% Book Building Process wherein at least 60% of the issue will be allocated to Qualified Institutional Buyers, including 30% to anchor investors. Further, not less than 10.0% of the Issue will be available for allocation on a proportionate basis to Non-Institutional Bidders and not less than 30.0% of the Issue will be available for allocation on a proportionate basis to Retail Bidders.

Valuation and recommendation:

We value Eros' stock at Rs. 190, by using the DCF method (WACC: 13.0% and Terminal Growth 5%), which offers an upside potential of 20.1% over the lower end of the price band and 8.5% over the upper end of the price band. We expect the Company to continue to post better margins than its peer, UTV Software communications in FY11 with an EBITDA margin and net margin of 53.5% and 15.5%, respectively, as compared to EBITDA and net margins of 16.9% and 10.7%, respectively, of its peer on the back of continuous exploitation of film rights across high margin platforms, accompanied with value accretive methods such as bundling. Thus, we recommend the investors to subscribe to the issue.

The issue opens on September 17, 2010 and closes on September 21, 2010.


  Corporate News Headline
Ashok Leyland has bagged order for 2,850 buses from the Tamil Nadu government. The company, however, did not disclose the value of the order which it has bagged from the Institute of Road Transport. (BS)
•SBI has sought the Finance Ministry's nod for raising Rs. 200 bn from the market, a key official said today. "We have received the proposal. We are examining it," Financial Services Secretary R Gopalan said. (BS)
•IVRCL Assets and Holdings Ltd, a unit of IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects, said it won an order worth Rs. 15 bn for extension of the Pune-Mumbai expressway. (BS)

  Economic and Political Headline
The Reserve Bank of India in its maiden mid-quarter policy has hiked repo rate by 25 bps to 6% and reverse repo rates by 50 bps to 5%. (BS)
UK retail sales unexpectedly fell in August, the first decline since January, led by a drop in sales at book shops, sporting-goods stores and pharmacies. Sales dropped 0.5% from July, when they rose 0.8%, the Office for National Statistics said. On the year, sales rose 0.4%, the least since April. (Bloomberg)
Wholesale costs in the US rose in August for a second month, indicating demand is strong enough to prevent deflation. The producer price index increased 0.4%, the most in five months and twice the gain in July, Labor Department figures showed. A measure excluding volatile food and energy costs climbed 0.1%. (Bloomberg)
Buy / Sell (Sep 16, 2010)
 BuySell Net
FII3487.322367.29 +1120.03
DII1028.742133.99 -1105.25

*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES. 

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report
-- 
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381