Monday, November 23, 2009

Market Outlook 23rd Nov and Weekly Update

INTRADAY calls for 23rd Nov 2009
+ve Sector, Scripts: IT, BANK, DenaBank, Jindaldril, Albk, Bajajholding
Buy HDFCBank-1754 for 1774-1790+ with sl 1740
Buy ACC-766 for 780-793+ with sl 744
Buy BPCL-520 above 526 for 540-548+ with sl 518
Buy TVtoday-113 for 134-139+ with sl 104 [positional]
Buy Auropharma-785 for 820+ with sl 773
Buy Canbank-370 for 392-406+ with sl 362
 
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
SUPPORT
5033
4978
4925
4872
4819
RESISTANCE
5076
5090
5143
5195
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Below 5033 level, expect profit booking up to 4978-4980 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4925-4927 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 5076 level. Above this level, rally may continue up to 5088-5090 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 5141-5143 zone. Stop Loss at 5193-5195 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4872-4874 zone can create panic up to 4819-4821 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors: 
 Bearish Trend. Problem is that, we are trading near Stop Loss level of 5082.00. If bears can able to control below this level, then traders can expect a target of 4842.20 level.
Risk is that, if closes above 5082.00 level for consecutive 3 days then traders can expect short covering up to 5201.90 level by non-stop.
 
Today's Expectation:
SGX NIFTY is trading at 5065.00. (09.09 AM IST)
This trend is on expected lines.
If weakness continues, then it may continue for 1 (or) 2 days.
If short covering starts, then it can continue up to 1 day, 1 Week (or) even 1 Month.
 
BSE SENSEX:  
Friday's rally was not a surprise, as per technicals. Expect profit booking today. 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. Target at 17499.70.
Stop Loss is too far on down side, can be placed at around 16666.70.
  
 
 
Strong & Weak  futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Dena Bank, Jindal Steel, Orient Bank, MLL, McDowell-N, Sesa Goa, Vijaya Bank, Ashok Ley, PFC & Allahabad Bank.  
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
EKC, ICSA, Tata Comm, Unitech, TTML, Bharti Airtel, India Cement, GMR Infra, Idea & Sterling Biotech.
Nifty is in Down trend  
 
POSITIONAL BUY:
Buy RISHABH DIGHA ST (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 531539) 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 19.55. Above 23.55, it will zoom.
 
Today: Expect Profit Booking.

1 Week: Expect Profit Booking.

1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

3 Months: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Year: Sideways, surprisingly going up.
 
Buy BHAGYANAGAR (I) (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 512296) 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 25.70. Above 27.90, it will zoom.
 
Today: May hold on gains.

1 Week: Expect Profit Booking.

1 Month: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

3 Months: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
Buy RELIANCE INDS (NSE Cash) 
Friday's rally was surprising. Buy with a Stop Loss of 2084.10. Above 2161.90, it will zoom.
 
1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

3 Months: Bullish, surprisingly going down.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
Buy STATE BANK (NSE Cash) 
May hold on gains.  Buy with a Stop Loss of 2272.55. Above 2372.60, it will zoom.
 
1 Week: Expect Profit Booking.

1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

3 Months: Bearish, surprisingly going up. 

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
  
 
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 20-Nov-2009 2049.92 2513.81 -463.89
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 20-Nov-2009 1314.97 1296.51 18.46
 
STOP INDEX LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   5052.45 ( 1.27 %) 63.45       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5099.57 5146.68   5230.07  
Support 4969.07 4885.68 4838.57

BSE Sensex  17021.85 ( 1.41 %) 236.20     
  1 2 3
Resistance 17163.84 17305.84 17569.88
Support 16757.80 16493.76 16351.76
 Day Trading Guide


 
Positive sentiment stays, but volatility to rise

Focus now on yuan appreciation.

The weekly outlook for Dalal Street's key indices appears positive.

One school of thought pointed out that the closer reality does not bode a negative turn in sentiment – liquidity continues to emerge each day. Dollar's weakness is a blessing for local equity assets.

Another group, who loves to take a not-less-than-two-year view, said that the longer horizon is rosy for Indian economy and stocks – so it is wise to buy now.

Dramatic surge

Without a roaring cheer for the earlier experience, the Sensex has crossed 17,000 points again. But an all-round conviction in a dramatic surge is still amiss. This has put volatility on the movement of indices.

Those who look at the charts also expect volatility to continue in the short-term, but do not predict a breakout.

Some market players claim that global market trends would continue to influence the local market to an extent this week. However, key local indices may not reflect the moves on the eastern or western hemispheres.

Fed move

The US Federal Reserves Chairman, Mr Ben Bernanke's reiteration last week of the commitment to keep policy rates "exceptionally low" for an "extended period" and the benign outlook for inflation were well received by bond markets, as well as other risky assets.

A Morgan Stanley economist, Mr Manoj Pradhan, however, said the Fed Chief's sanguine outlook embedded in US bond market creates risks for central banks wishing to tighten policy ahead of their counterparts in the developed economies. He said: "Low bond yields in the US and other major economies tend to put downward pressure on bond yields elsewhere in the world." The chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission recently said low interest rates in the US and a weak dollar affected global asset prices and generated speculation.

"Following the principles of initiative, controllability and gradualism, with reference to international capital flows and changes in major currencies, we will improve the yuan exchange rate formation mechanism," the Peoples' Bank of China said in a 46-page third quarterly monetary policy report ahead of the US President's visit.

Yuan movement

At the end of the visit, China, however, remained silent on yuan.

But some market analysts hope that China may soon provide some clues.

The yuan had strengthened by nearly 20 per cent against the dollar until concern over the impact of the global financial crisis prompted Beijing to apply the brakes in the middle of last year to protect its exporters.

If resumption of yuan appreciation takes place, the immediate impact on the equity assets in Asia could be positive.

Interesting findings on web:
U.S. stocks fell, halting a two-week advance, as a worsening outlook for technology company earnings added to concern that the eight-month rally in equities outpaced the prospects for economic growth.

U.S. stocks fell for a third straight day on Friday as investors took weaker-than-expected results from computer maker Dell (DELL.O) and homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI.N) as a further sign that the recovery would be anemic.

Worried investors curb riskier bets.

Weak results from Dell, D.R. Horton weigh.

Following the S&P 500's gain of more than 60 percent from its 12-year closing low of March 9, investors have become more sensitive to signs of weakness as they sought to justify lofty share valuations.

"While it appears to us that the recession is over, there are a lot of lingering signs of pain on Main Street," said Sasha Kostadinov, portfolio manager and research analyst at Shaker Investments in Cleveland, Ohio. "Unemployment is very high, lots of people out of work and that is still causing significant stress."

The news of a 54 percent slide in Dell's quarterly profit rounded off a rocky week for the technology sector, which has been a market darling since March as investors bet on a strong recovery to spur corporate and consumer spending.

Unease about the economy's prospects drove investors to snap up defensive stocks seen better able to withstand an uncertain economy, limiting the Dow's losses.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 14.28 points, or 0.14 percent, to 10,318.16. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX dropped 3.52 points, or 0.32 percent, to 1,091.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC slipped 10.78 points, or 0.50 percent, to 2,146.04.

RUSSELL584.68-1.00-0.17%

TRAN5453.21-14.61-0.27%

UTIL371.841.14+0.31%

S&P 100508.79-1.56-0.31%

S&P 400687.54-3.85-0.56%

NYSE7084.47-33.17-0.47%

NAS 1001764.39-8.80-0.5%

With the year-end fast approaching, there was also a push by some investors, including hedge funds, to lock in profits from the recent rally going into 2010, analysts said.

"It is normal for stocks to pull back after such a strong run," said Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based money manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees $390 billion. "It's reasonable for investors to take a pause when they're faced with such a broad variety of uncertainties."

Intel Corp. dropped 2.9 percent, the steepest retreat in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as Bank of America Corp. said computer-chip supply may overwhelm demand. Dell Inc. tumbled 7.2 percent after profit decreased by more than half. Stocks also slid as yields on Treasury three-month bills turned negative for the first time since financial markets froze last year. Metals producers rose as gold climbed to a record and the dollar fell.

About 80 percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results beat analysts' predictions, including Sears Holdings Corp., Ltd. Brands Inc. and GameStop Corp. this week. That exceeds the record pace of 72.3 percent for the period ended in June, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Caterpillar, GE and Cisco were the day's biggest decliners on the Dow. Merck and Pfizer rose.

Dell, the No. 3 personal computer maker, slid 10 percent to $14.29 a day after it reported a sharp drop in third-quarter profit and sales that missed estimates. Dell was the Nasdaq's top drag.

D.R. Horton Inc (DHI.N) tumbled 15.4 percent to $10.37 after the homebuilder reported a fourth-quarter loss that was wider than expected and said market conditions were "still challenging."

A rebound in the U.S. dollar pressured prices of global commodities, including crude. Energy stocks were hurt, such as Chevron Corp (CVX.N), which fell 0.7 percent to $76.77.

Intel, the world's largest chipmaker, and Texas Instruments Inc., the second-biggest U.S. chipmaker, dropped after being cut to "neutral" from "buy" at Bank of America. The bank cut its outlook for the semiconductor industry to "negative" from "positive," sending technology stocks to the steepest drop of 10 industries in the S&P 500. Intel lost 2.9 percent to $19.24 and Texas Instruments slid 2.8 percent to $24.74.

SanDisk Corp., the world's largest maker of flash-memory cards used in digital cameras and mobile phones, dropped 7.8 percent to $20.24.

Raw-materials producers rallied 1.4 percent, the second- most among the 10 industries in the S&P 500, as commodity prices rose, led by gold and copper.

"If the economy is turning, which it is, industrials and materials should continue to do better," said David Katz, who oversees $1.2 billion at Matrix Asset Advisors in New York. "Materials might be the better gainer because of their gold exposure."

Barrick Gold Corp. rose 2.5 percent to $43.98 and Freeport- McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. added 3.7 percent to $84.57 as bullion climbed to a record $1,153.40 an ounce on Nov. 18. The precious metal has fallen only once this month as investors speculated the dollar will extend its steepest plunge since 1986, boosting gold's appeal as an alternative investment.

Consumer discretionary stocks dropped 1.1 percent, the second-steepest decline among 10 industries. Target Corp. fell 3.1 percent to $47.46 as the second-biggest U.S. discount chain said it is planning for a "modest" decrease in fourth-quarter comparable-store sales. Home Depot Inc. slumped 0.6 percent to $27.18 after the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer posted third-quarter profit that fell 8.9 percent as homeowners curbed large purchases and professional contractors spent less.

Sprint Nextel Corp. climbed the most in the S&P 500, rising 21 percent to $3.76. The third-largest U.S. mobile-phone carrier rallied after it finished paying off a $4.5 billion loan, helping lower expenses to counter a shrinking subscriber base.

Hewlett-Packard Co. and Deere & Co. are among 10 companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to report results next week. A report will probably show sales of existing U.S. homes increased in October to the highest level in more than two years, spurred in part by a tax credit that lured first-time buyers, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Hewlett Packard [HPQ  50.04    0.22  (+0.44%)   ], which reports earnings on Monday, advanced.

Coca-Cola Co (KO.N) was up 1.1 percent and drug company Merck & Co (MRK.N) rose 3.2 percent to $36.46.

Dow component General Electric Co (GE.N) and Vivendi SA (VIV.PA) were at least $1 billion apart in their valuation of Vivendi's stake in NBC Universal, the Financial Times reported, dampening hopes of a swift sale.

GE shares shed 1.1 percent to $15.59.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) declined 1.6 percent to $170.01 after the Wall Street Journal reported large shareholders have asked the investment bank -- on track to award employees the biggest bonuses in its history -- to pass more profits to investors. A Goldman spokesman said major shareholders had not contacted the company about lowering its bonus pool.

Software maker Intuit [INTU  29.66    -0.61  (-2.02%)   ] posted a smaller-than-expected loss.

Gap [GPS 21.95    0.09  (+0.41%)   ] hit its earnings target, helped by strong sales at its lower-priced Old Navy stores.

Ann Taylor [ANN  13.62    -0.19  (-1.38%)   ] beat earnings expectations but its topline was a little light — sales dropped 12.3 percent and the women's apparel chain said sales would continue to slide in the fourth quarter.

Procter & Gamble [PG  61.80    -0.35  (-0.56%)   ] saw its shares slip amid news that the company is targeting a share repurchase of less than $8 billion.

The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, dropped to 22.19. The index, which is known as Wall Street's fear gauge, is down from a record 80.86 in November 2008 yet above its 20.28 average over its 19-year history.

Oil,Gold & Currencies:

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude CLZ9 settled down 74 cents, or 0.96 percent, at $76.72 a barrel, the last day of the contract.

Gold settling at $1,146.40, after setting a record above $1,150 earlier this week.

The dollar rose for a second straight session Friday as risk tolerance declined, with investors cutting exposure to assets and currencies perceived as higher risk ahead of a holiday-shortened week in the United States.

Bonds:

Demand for longer-term Treasurys fell, pushing yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 3.37 percent from 3.34 percent.

What to expect:

MONDAY: Existing-home sales; two-year note auction; earnings from Campbell Soup, HP, ADI and Brocade

TUESDAY: GDP (2nd look); Conference Board consumer confidence; Sheila Bair press briefing; Five-year note auction; Fed minutes; Earnings from American Eagle, Barnes & Noble, Dollar Tree, Hormel, Medtronic and TiVo

WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps; weekly jobless claims; durable goods; personal income; Reuters/U of Mich consumer sentiment; new-home sales; weekly crude inventories; 7-year note auction; Earnings from Deere, Tiffany

THURSDAY: Thanksgiving—all US financial markets closed

FRIDAY: Black Friday—US markets open but NYSE closes early

Asia:

Asian stocks rose as higher metal prices boosted mining companies, James Hardie Industries NV forecast earnings at the top of a range and on speculation Korea Exchange Bank will get a takeover offer.

Newcrest Mining Ltd. added 3 percent in Sydney as gold prices increased for the seventh straight session. Rio Tinto Group climbed 2 percent after metal prices in London had their biggest weekly advance in a month. James Hardie surged 7.8 percent after forecasting full-year earnings at the top range of analyst estimates. Korea Exchange Bank gained 3.8 percent after Hana Financial Group Inc. said it would consider a bid.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Excluding Japan Index added 0.3 percent to 408.72 as of 10:16 a.m. in Tokyo, where markets were closed for a national holiday. The gauge has risen 65 percent this year, on course for its steepest annual gain since 1993, as governments worldwide enacted spending programs and cut borrowing costs to revive growth.

"The global economy, whilst in recovery mode, is still vulnerable," said Chris Weston, an institutional dealer at IG Markets in Melbourne. "Take away the stimulus at the wrong time and it could send it back into a double-dip scenario."

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.8 percent. The gauge has rallied 50 percent from a five-year low on March 6 as government measures including cash handouts and infrastructure spending helped Australia skirt a recession. South Korea's Kospi Index slipped 0.1 percent today.

Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 0.3 percent. The index slipped 0.3 percent on Nov. 20 as earnings at Dell Inc. and D.R. Horton Inc. trailed analysts' estimates and concern grew that European Central Bank policy makers will phase out measures to stimulate the economy.

Tokyo closed for a public holiday.

HSI 22567.89 +112.05 +0.5%. (08.08 AM IST)

SSE Composite 3308.35 3321.35 3333.79 3309.69 + 0.39. (08.10 AM IST)

Rupee:

We did't get Rupee Update. Inconvenience is regretted. 

INDIA:

Source: Bloomberg.

Reliance Industries increased 1.9 percent to 2,123.3 rupees. Hindalco added 3.5 percent to 134.6 rupees.

State Bank of India Ltd., the nation's biggest lender, gained 2.4 percent to 2,334.95 rupees, snapping an earlier 1.8 percent decline. ICICI Bank Ltd., the country's second-biggest lender, advanced 1.2 percent to 897 rupees. The stock had earlier dropped 3.2 percent.

Bharti Airtel Ltd. (BHARTI IN), the largest mobile-phone operator, fell 1.6 percent to 288.75 rupees after it cut roaming charges by 60 percent, sparking concern among investors that the ongoing price war among Indian telecom companies will hurt their profitability.

Bhushan Steel Ltd. (BHUS IN) gained 1.7 percent to 1,360.7 rupees after the Economic Times reported the company plans to sell a 5 percent stake to strategic investors for about 4 billion rupees. Managing Director Neeraj Singal declined to comment on whether the Indian steelmaker is looking to sell a stake when contacted by telephone today.

Jindal Drilling & Industry Ltd. (JDDL IN), a drilling services company, surged 10 percent to 575.8 rupees, the most in three months, after it won an order worth 6.35 billion rupees.

New Delhi Television Ltd. (NDTV IN) rose 8.1 percent to 144.2 rupees after Scripps Networks Interactive Inc., the owner of Food Network and HGTV, agreed to pay $55 million for 69 percent of NDTV Lifestyle, a unit of NDTV Group.

Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd. (TRE IN) climbed 2.3 percent to 104.5 rupees after the company's profit more than doubled to 682.2 million rupees last quarter from a year earlier.

Source: Reuters.

Higher European markets lift sentiment from early slide

State Bank of India, ICICI Bank among major gainers

Outsourcers, autos rise on improving outlook

Bharti falls after it slashes roaming charges

Indian shares climbed 1.4 percent on Friday and helped stretch weekly run of gains to three in a row, after higher European markets lifted investor confidence from an early slide. Banks led the gainers with sentiment also boosted by an assurance the government was not planning to tax foreign capital inflows. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission and a close confidant of the prime minister, told Reuters the government wants an increase in foreign investment and there was no proposal to tax overseas funds.

Curbs on foreign inflows imposed by Brazil and Indonesia have raised worries other countries may tighten rules to stem their strengthening currencies as investors move money into faster growing economies. The 30-share BSE index .BSESN closed up 1.41 percent, or 236.20 points, at 17,021.85, taking gains for the week to 1 percent. Twenty-six components closed in the green. The benchmark is up more than 76 percent this year, supported by foreign portfolio investment of $15.4 billion. In 2008, the index had fallen more than a half as foreigners pulled out over $13 billion. "If the rally gains momentum and crosses 18,000-18,500, we will move from a stretched valuation scene to a bubble zone," said A.V. Srikanth, executive director of private wealth management at Anand Rathi Financial Services. State Bank of India (SBI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) and ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO: Quote, Profile, Research), the country's top two lenders, gained 2.4 percent and 1.3 percent respectively. "Banking sector is looking good, as with the economy growing the sector has good potential," said R. Ganesh, director of Systematix Shares. Energy giant Reliance Industries (RELI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) rebounded 2.1 percent to 2,125.15 rupees, after falling more than 3 percent over three days on the absence no major announcement at its annual general meeting earlier this week. Outsourcers climbed on improving outlook in their mainmarkets in the United States and Europe. Infosys Technologies (INFY.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped to a record high of 2,447 rupees, before settling at 2,427.50, up 0.75 percent. Sector leader Tata Consultancy (TCS.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) gained 2 percent and smaller rival Wipro (WIPR.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) firmed 0.7 percent.

Top vehicle maker Tata Motors (TAMO.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) closed 1 percent higher at 642.20 rupees, after CLSA upgraded the stock to 'outperfomer' from 'sell' on Thursday. "We now recognise that JLR's demand environment is better than we expected and, combined with cost-cutting measures, should support a strong profit rebound over FY11-12," CLSA said in a note, referring to Tata Motors' Jaguar Land Rover brands. Bharti Airtel (BRTI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 1.4 percent to 288.75 rupees, after the leading mobile operator said it had launched a new bill plan that would slash mobile roaming rates by nearly 60 percent.

In the broader market, gainers outpaced losers in the ratio of 1.2:1 on moderate volume of 411 million shares. The 50-share NSE index .NSEI closed 1.3 percent higher at 5,042.45.

STOCKS THAT MOVED

Thermax (THMX.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 3.6 percent to 598.15 rupees. The engineering firm said it had received an order worth 4.77 billion rupees to set up a captive power plant for a ferro alloy unit in the eastern state of Orissa.

* NDTV Ltd (NDTV.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) rallied 7.5 percent to 144.05 rupees after U.S. media firm Scripps Networks Interactive Inc (SNI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it would buy a majority stake in the broadcaster's lifestyle unit for $55 million.

MAIN TOP 3 BY VOLUME * Suzlon Energy (SUZL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 28.2 million shares * Unitech (UNTE.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 13 million shares * Dena Bank (DENA.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 9.5 million shares

Source: India Infoline.

Weekly:

The BSE Sensex hit an intra-week high of 17,098 and low of 16,635 and the NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 5,079 and low of 4,932.

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs26.18bn during the week. While the Domestic Institutions were net sellers to the tune of Rs8.15bn during the week.

The top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were Tata Steel (up 6.2%), Reliance Capital (up 5.1%), Hero Honda (up 4.6%), Maruti Suzuki (up 4.4%) and ACC (up 3.7%).

The Top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were Reliance Infrastructure (down 4.9%), Bharti Airtel (down 4.4%), ICICI Bank (down 1.3%), ONGC (down 1.3%) and Tata Power (down 0.7%),

The BSE IT Index (up 2.1%): The top losers in IT sector were Patni Computer (down 12.3%), Mphasis (down 7.6%), Mahindra Satyam (down 4.9%), HCL Tech (down 3.1%) and Financial Tech (down 0.9%).

Wipro gained 2.6% during the week. The company's subsidiary signed a five-year deal with the US-based Cliffs Natural Resources Inc, to provide IT infrastructure services.

Infosys advanced 3% during the week. According to reports, the company's consulting arm is planning to acquire a small consulting company with revenues in the US$100-140mn as part of its inorganic growth initiatives in the US.

TCS was the other notable gainer in the week, the stock rose 3.4%.

According to a report released by IIFL during the week, "With salary hikes and a likely pick-up in hiring along with the risk of a rising rupee, can margin compression upend a volume-led recovery for Indian IT services vendors? We believe the answer is a negative. Margin risks due to rising salaries are low, given the excess supply in the 'fresher' pool (low hiring and delay in campus intake during 2009 meant top vendors' headcount has risen only upto 6.5% in 2QFY10 YoY). As such, the distribution of wage hikes is likely to be skewed towards laterals. Also, current utilisation rates of top-tier vendors are low (67-73%) and have a considerable scope to increase (during the FY03 recovery, Infosys's utilisation had risen to 79%). Meanwhile, while the appreciation of INR vs US$ remains a risk, top tier vendors – Wipro and TCS have diversified their revenue streams away from US. Also, our estimates for FY11 are based on an average US$/INR exchange rate of 46".

The BSE Consumer Index: The top gainers in the consumer durables space were Samtel Color (up 9.1%), Whirlpool (up 4%), Videocon Industries (up 1.7%) and Su-Raj Diamonds (up 1.4%).

The BSE Healthcare Index (up 1.4%): The top gainer in the Pharma space was Glenmark Pharma. The stock rose over 14% during the week after reports stated that Glenmark Generics settled all pending litigation with Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp relating to patent actions on Fluocinonide.

Strides Arcolab (up 5%), IPCA Labs (up 4.6%), Natco Pharma (up 4.3%) and Orchid Chemical (up 3.4%) were among the other major gainers.

The top losers in were Morepen Labs (down 3.6%), Torrent Pharma (down 3.2%), Zandu Pharma (down 2.5%), Divi's Labs (down 1.5%) and Suven Life Sciences (down 1.5%).

Dr Reddy's Labs advanced by 1% during the week, a recent report released by IIFL stated, "Dr Reddy's management, in investor meetings hosted by us, reiterated that it is on course to its goal of US$3bn revenues and 25% ROCE in FY13.

• Overall FY10 US sales could be significantly higher than in FY09—this is a major upside to our numbers.

• The company successfully completed its FDA inspection last week without any major observations.

• German business remains unpredictable; minor intangible writedowns and one-time retrenchment expenses possible.

• No major problems foreseen in Russia, but growth rates may temper.

• Dr Reddy's continues to be our top pick in pharma space".

The BSE Banking Index (up 0.5%): The top gainer in the banking sector was OBC. The stock rose over 9% during the week as the company has reportedly sought capital support of Rs10bn from the government to implement its expansion plan.

Bank of India (up 6%), Allahabad Bank (up 5.8%), Andhra Bank (up 3.5%) and Union Bank of India (up 3.2%) were among the other major gainers.

The top losers were Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 2.1%), Canara Bank (down 1.8%), Yes Bank (down 1.4%), ICICI Bank (down 1.3%) and Karnataka Bank (down 0.5%). 

The BSE Auto Index (up 2.2%): The top gainers in the auto space were Eicher Motors (up 5.2%), Hero Honda (up 4.6%), Maruti Suzuki (up 4.4%), Tata Motors (up 3.5%) and Ashok Leyland (up 3%).

The top losers were Swaraj Mazda (down 2.1%) and Hindustan Motors (down 0.4%).

The BSE Oil & Gas Index (up 0.3%): The top gainers in the oil & gas space were Jindal Drilling (up 12.6%), Great Offshore (up 4.5%), Chennai Petroleum (up 2.4%), Cairn India (up 2.2%) and Essar Oil (up 1.7%).

The top losers were Hindustan Oil (down 9.8%), Shiv-Vani Oil (down 3.2%), HPCL (down 2.9%), MRPL (down 1.9%) and Gujarat NRE Coke (down 1.8%).

The BSE Capital Goods Index (0.0%): The top gainers in the capital goods space were Aban Offshore (up 11.2%), Thermax Ltd (up 9.8%), Elgi Equipments (up 3.9%), Gammon India (up 3.2%) and Esab India (up 2.2%).

The top losers were Crompton Greaves (down 3.1%), Kirloskar Brothers (down 2.8%), Usha Martin (down 2.4%), Alstom Projects (down 2.3%) and Bharat Electronics (down 1.9%).

The Cement Sector: The top gainers in the cement space were Ultratech Cement (up 8.4%), Mangalam Cement (up 4.9%), JK Cements (up 4.7%), ACC (up 3.7%) and Prism Cement (up 2.3%).

The top losers were Gujarat Sidhee (down 4.3%), Kakatiya Cement (down 3.7%), Binani Indus (down 3.6%), India Cements (down 1.4%) and Dalmia Cement (down 1.3%).

Grasim gained 1.5% during the week. According to a report released by IIFL, "The merger ratio between Grasim's two subsidiaries—the 65%-owned Samruddhi Cement (SCL) and 55%-owned UltraTech Cement (UCL)—has been fixed at 4 shares of UCL for 7 shares of SCL. The merger ratio balances the medium and long-term prospects of two subsidiaries, in our view. Based on book values of SCL and UCL as on 1 October 2009, the merger ratio works out to 1 share of UCL for 2.2 shares of SCL; based on our FY11 estimates for SCL and UCL, the merger ratio works out to 1 share of UCL for 1.1 share of SCL. We expect the merger ratio to be EPS-accretive for UCL for FY11 and FY12, given the poor fundamentals of west and south regions for the next two years (UCL's current cement capacities are concentrated in west and south regions). We upgrade our FY11 earnings estimate for UCL by 18% and downgrade it for Grasim by 16% to reflect the effect of restructuring and our pricing assumptions. We retain ADD rating on both companies with revised target prices of Rs2,732 for Grasim (including shareholders' direct holding in SCL) and Rs874 for UltraTech".

The Telecom Sector: The top losers in the telecom sector were WWIL (down 8.9%), Bharti Airtel (down 4.4%), TTML (down 3.9%), Tata Communication (down 2.9%) and MTNL (down 2.5%).

The top gainers were Shyam Telecom (up 5.3%), Idea Cellular (up 1.3%) and RCom (up 0.1%).

The Realty Sector (down 1.1%): The RBI's recent move which aims to curb lending to real estate sector continues to act as an overhang on the sector.

The top losers were HDIL (down 5.4%), Parsvnath Developers (down 3.6%), Unitech (down 3.1%) and Omaxe Ltd (down 1.1%).

The top gainers in the real estate space were Anant Raj Indus (up 6.9%), Sobha Developers (up 3.5%), Mahindra Lifespace (up 2.6%), Ansal Props (up 1.9%) and DLF (up 1.9%).

HDIL fell 5.5% during the week. A report released by IIFL during the week stated that, "HDIL differentiated itself from other real-estate companies by rapidly executing Phase I of the Mumbai airport rehabilitation project in the face of liquidity constraints through a large part of the last 18 months. Its new strategy—to transform itself from a seller of FSI and TDR to a 'construct and sell' developer—will bring in-house the attractive developer margins on such projects and substantially add to its value. The favourable decision at the Bandra Kurla Complex SRS scheme reflects its ability to work with SRS regulators. HDIL will control ~70% of the TDR supply in Mumbai over FY10-16ii and is the largest beneficiary of the buoyancy in TDR prices. The company derives 70% of its NAV from Mumbai, the most resilient real-estate market in India. We recommend BUY with target price of Rs436/share, at one-year-forward NAV".

The Metals sector (up 3.6%): The top gainers in the metal space were Bhuwalka Steel (up 25.2%), Lloyds Metals (up 11.8%), Jindal Stainless (up 11.1%), Tata Metaliks (up 10.6%), Monnet Ispat (up 10.2%) and Jindal Steel (up 4%).

JSW Steel surged 7% during the week after the company inked a deal with Japan's JFE Steel to jointly develop a 10mn ton steel project in West Bengal. The companies also agreed on a production tie-up and may acquire stakes in each other.

SAIL surged over 5% during the week. Reports stated that the government is set to dilute its holding in SAIL by 20%. While the company will make a fresh issue of 10% equity, the government will divest 10% of its stake.

Source: Kotak Securities.

Among the Sensex pack 26 stocks closed in green while 4 ended in red. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market remained strong as 1,452 stocks closed in positive while 1,240 stocks closed in negative while 98 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 236.20 points or (1.41%) at 17,021.85 and NSE Nifty closed up by 63.45 points or (1.27%) at 5,052.45. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Cap also closed up by 69.02 points and 32.53 points at 6,465.61 and 7,527.32. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 17,041.79 and intraday low of 16,635.75.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are ACC (4.55%), Hindalco Inds (3.47%), JP Associates (2.73%), Tata Steel (2.66%), HDFC (2.58%), M&M (2.47%), SBI (2.42%) and DLF (2.29%).

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Bharti Airtel (1.40%), Reliance Infra (0.62%), Maruti Suzuki (0.26%) and Bhel (0.06%).

On the global markets front, the Asian markets that opened before the Indian market, closed in negative. Taiwan Weighted, Hang Seng, Nikkei and Shanghai Composite closed lower by 0.99%, 0.83%, 0.54% and 0.37% at 7,682.97, 22,455.84, 9,497.68 and 3,308.35 respectively.

European markets, which opened after the Indian market, are trading in positive. In London FTSE 100 is up by 0.53% at 5,295.66 and in Frankfurt DAX index is trading higher by 0.50% at 5,730.62 and in Paris the CAC 40 is up by 0.47% at 3,777.96.

BSE REALTY index was at 3,858.83 up by 30.03 points or by (0.78%) The main gainers were Peninsula Land up by (5.27%) at Rs.79.95, Anant Raj Inds up by (2.82%) at Rs.144.1, Dlf up by (2.29%) at Rs.374.75 and Ackruti City up by (2.07%) at Rs.546.1.

BSE METAL index was at 16,095.74 up by 217.04 points or by (1.37%) The main gainers were Jindal Saw up by (6.91%) at Rs.872.2, Hindalco Inds up by (3.47%) at Rs.134.35, Steel Authority up by (3.24%) at Rs.191.35, Tata Steel up by (2.66%) at Rs.551.6, Jindal Steel up by (1.92%) at Rs.722.6.

BSE BANKEX index was at 10,253.14 up by 196.35 points or by (1.95%) The main gainers were Allahabad Bank up by (5.24%) at Rs.139.5, Oriental Bank up by (4.9%) at Rs.289, Iob up by (4.51%) at Rs.115.95, Canara Bank up by (4.15%) at Rs.371, Union Bank up by (3.97%) at Rs.272.25,

BSE AUTO index was at 6,923.70 up by 49.86 points or by (0.73%) The main gainers were Ashok Leyland up by (3.07%) at Rs.53.8, Mahindra & Mahindra up by (2.47%) at Rs.1039.75, Tata Motors up by (0.99%) at Rs.642.4, Exide Inds up by (0.93%) at Rs.108.35, Hero Honda up by (0.64%) at Rs.1651.55.

BSE CD index was at 3,484.39 down by 47.84 points or by (1.35%) The main losers were Titan Inds down by (2.72%) at Rs.1364.8, Rajesh Exports down by (1.54%) at Rs.79.95, Blue Star down by (0.98%) at Rs.337.05.

BSE HC index was at 4,684.27 up by 44.57 points or by (0.96%) The main gainers were Glenmark Pharma up by (2.94%) at Rs.254.1, Aurobindo Phar up by (2.16%) at Rs.786.15, Biocon up by (1.82%) at Rs.267.9, Sun Pharma Adv up by (1.63%) at Rs.84, Sun Pharma up by (1.56%) at Rs.1437.

BSE OIL&GAS index was at 10,170.93 up by 152.39 points or by (1.52%) The main gainers were Bharat Petro Cor up by (2.6%) at Rs.521.1, Reliance Inds up by (2.07%) at Rs.2125.15, Aban Offshore up by (1.79%) at Rs.1372.4 and Hindustan Petro up by (1.58%) at Rs.340.7.

BSE IT index was at 4,842.94 up by 41.59 points or by (0.87%) The main gainers were Niit up by (2.27%) at Rs.65.35, Moser Baer up by (2.1%) at Rs.85.25, Tcs up by (2.02%) at Rs.693.3 and Rolta India up by (1.72%) at Rs.174.75.

Nagarjuna Constructions Company (NCC) closed up by 1.96% at Rs. 166.45. The company is set to form a joint venture with an Indonesian coal mining company to help supply of coal for its Rs 14,000-crore thermal power plant in Andhra Pradesh. The stock is now trading higher by (1.32%) at Rs. 165.40.

Jindal Drilling & Industries surged 10.42% to close at Rs. 576.35. The company has bagged an order worth Rs 635 crore from ONGC for hiring a drilling unit ''''Noble Ed-holt'''' for a five-year period. This rig is likely to get deployed in the month of December 2009. The stock is now trading higher by (9.31%) at Rs. 570.55.

Edelweiss Capital closed up by 0.86% at Rs. 485.25. The company has entered into a joint venture agreement with Japan-based Tokio Marine Holdings to form a life insurance JV. The company said companies would invest Rs 550 crore as initial capital in JV. The stocks is now trading higher by (0.81%) at Rs. 485.

Source: Bloomberg.

Aban Offshore Ltd. Ltd. (ABAN IN): India's largest oil rig company raised 6.98 billion rupees selling shares to institutional investors, it informed the Bombay Stock Exchange. The stock advanced 1.6 percent to 1,374.20 rupees.

Adhunik Metaliks Ltd. (ADML IN): The maker of products for automotive and engineering sectors sold 18.96 million shares at 98.23 rupees, according to a regulatory filing. Adhunik shares fell 1.1 percent to 99.45 rupees.

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (BHEL IN): Alstom SA, the world's third-largest power plant builder, plans to set up a venture with Nuclear Power Corp. of India and Bharat Heavy to supply equipment in India, three people familiar with the matter said. Bharat Heavy and Nuclear Power agreed in April last year to form the venture with an overseas company to provide engineering, procurement and construction services. Bharat Heavy shares fell 0.1 percent to 2,261.4 rupees.

Edelweiss Capital Ltd. (EDEL IN): Galleon Group LLC, the U.S. hedge fund whose founder Raj Rajaratnam has been charged with insider trading, sold its stake in Edelweiss Capital for 2.6 billion rupees. New York-based Galleon sold 5.27 million Edelweiss shares at 485 rupees, according to the Bombay Stock Exchange. Shares of Edelweiss rose 3.2 percent to 500.5 rupees.

Essar Oil Ltd. (ESOIL IN): Royal Dutch Shell Plc is in talks to acquire a 10 percent stake in Essar Oil, the Economic Times reported on Nov. 21 citing unidentified people. Shell will buy the stake, valued at about $364 million, as part payment for selling three of its European refineries to Essar, the newspaper said. Shares of Essar rose 1.5 percent to 136.85 rupees.

ICICI Bank Ltd. (ICICIBC IN): India's second-biggest lender will sell $750 million of bonds due March 2015, according to bankers involved in the transaction. The notes may be priced to yield 337.5 to 350 basis points more over Treasuries, the bankers said. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse Group AG and HSBC Holdings Plc are managing the sale. Shares of the lender rose 1.2 percent to 897 rupees.

Punjab National Bank. (PNB IN): The state-owned lender plans to raised 7 billion rupees selling bonds. The stock fell 1.7 percent to 914.45 rupees.

Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL IN): India's biggest company by market value bid for bankrupt chemicals and fuels maker LyondellBasell Industries AF, as it seeks to take advantage of the global financial crisis to expand overseas. The refiner and energy explorer controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani on Nov. 21 offered an undisclosed amount of cash to buy a controlling stake in LyondellBasell. The Mumbai-based company may have to pay at least $12 billion, the Times of India reported, citing an unidentified banker. Reliance's shares rose 1.9 percent to 2,123.3 rupees.

Suzlon Energy Ltd. (SUEL IN): The founders of India's biggest maker of wind turbines have pledged a total 28.28 percent of shares, according to a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange. Suzlon declined 2.9 percent to 73 rupees.

Techno Electric & Engineering Co Ltd. (TEE IN): The company has agreed to buy Simran Wind Project Pvt. Ltd., a power generating company with capacity of 50.45 megawatt. Shares of Techno Electric rose 2 percent to 167.5. 
 
INVESTMENT VIEW
Modern Dairies-Calling Attention

BSE 519287
 
  

-A BSE listed milk processor based out of Karnal, Haryana sees it's stock hit 9 upper circuits to nearly gain 70 per cent in value at Rs 49.65..in a matter of 9 trading sessions.

 

-So is something amiss?

 

-For one there is the extra-ordinary record of the promoters..2 years ago fed by rumours of private deals with Reliance Dairy, the stock was ratcheted up to Rs 200 from Rs 29 in a matter of six months.

 

-Nearing the top, the company announced a Bonus issue of 1:1, after which the stock kept falling till it reached Rs 50.

 

-IFC Washington was brought in with a Equity placement of 46.50 lakh shares at Rs 60 or a 20 per cent stake.

 

-A large number of warrants exercisable at Rs 80 were issued to promoters, a part of which were excercised but mostly allowed to lapse.

 

-Then after consecutive quarters of substantial losses, the stock fell to Rs 11.

 

-Modern Dairies immediately after approached the Corporate Debt Restructuring mechanism created by GOI Banks for write-offs/bail-out and got one package approved in March 2009.

 

-On the financial front though nothing changed, neither did the reporting competence of the management.

 

-Results for quarter ending June 2009 were released in November 2009, while results for quarter September 2009 also released in November 2009.

 

-Both quarters again show losses, though on a reduced scale beyond which the company has bothered to share no further communication with it's investors.

 

-Finally, bulk deals of the nature of circular trading appeared in the counter on Friday November 20th 2009, which is represented below.

 

-Sebi/BSE are requested to look into this highly un-usual stock move and conclude of nefarious agencies are at play in the counter.


(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 

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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381