Thursday, December 31, 2009

Market Outlook 31st Dec 2009

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2010
 

Intraday calls for 31st Dec 2009

+ve sector and script : Shiv-vani,HOEL

Buy OFSS-2322 for 2368-75 with sl 2300

Buy Cummins-422 for 432-434 with sl 419

Buy Indswftlab-76 for 82 with sl 73

Buy Visasteel-38 for 45-51 with sl 35 [positional]

 
 NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
RESISTANCE
5185
5199
5212
5220
5231
SUPPORT
5155
5141
5125
5117
5109
KALINDEERAIL;SRF;NITINFIRE;TINPLATE;HIndoil;tvsmot
 
  Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Sintex, Sail Ltd, Hotel Leela, Tata Motors, Hindalco, India Hotels, Suzlon, Sesa Goa, Ispat Industries & Century Text.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Andhra Bank, Pir Health, JP Associates, Ashok Ley, Orient Bank, IDFC, Tata Comm, GT Offshore, Orchid Chem & FSL.
 Nifty is in Up trend  
 
 NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Above 5185 level, expect short covering up to 5199 & 5212 levels by non-stop.
Support at 5141 & 5155 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 5125 level by
non-stop.

Break below 5117 level, expect further panic up to 5109-5111 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 5220 level can take it up to 5229-5231 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
Equity:
 
TATA STEEL (NSE Cash)
Recommendation: 

Fall should continue. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Hurdle at 621 level. Sell if touches 627-629 zone with a Stop Loss of 634-636 zone. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Below 609 level, selling may continue up to 606 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 596-598 zone by non-stop.
 
 
KALINDEE RAIL NIRMAN (ENGINEERS) (NSE Cash)
Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Hurdle at 232 level. If crosses & sustains at above 237-239 zone then expect a jump up to unbelievable target of 249-251 zone by non-stop.

Support at 228 level. Below 218-220 zone, there is a chance of unwinding up to unbelievable target of 208-210 zone also possible and have caution.
 
 
SRF LTD (NSE Cash)
Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Above 209 level, rally may continue up to 211-213 zone.

Support at 204 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 198-200 zone by non-stop.
 
 
NITIN FIRE PROTECTION INDS (NSE Cash):
 Explosive & will zoom.

TINPLATE CO (NSE Cash):

 No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.

HIND OIL EXPLORA (NSE Cash): 

Explosive & will zoom.

TVS MOTOR (NSE Cash):

 No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.

THINKSOFT GLOBAL SERVICES (NSE Cash): 

No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
 
 
JINDAL STEEL POW (NSE Cash): 
Fall may continue as per technicals.

HERO HONDA (NSE Cash): 

Fall may continue as per technicals.
 
INVESTMENT BUY:
 
SU-RAJ DIAMONDS (BSE Cash & BSE Code:507892)
Uptrend in Monthly Chart is surprising & Looks positive too.

This scrip should have been contained below 45.85 in this month. Yesterday's closing was 51.00. Still one day is left & question is will bears can able hammer this scrip up to 45.85?.

I think, close below 45.85 is not possible today. So bears got trapped.

Buying recommended for 1 Week & 1 Month Holding with a Stop Loss of 45.85.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):
 
NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION
Recommendation:

 No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Above 48 & 53 levels, it can zoom up to 59 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 64-66 zone by non-stop.

Support at 37-39 zone. Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 30-32 zone by non-stop.
 
 
RELIANCE 1080 PUT OPTION
Recommendation: 

Fall may continue.
 

Below 7 & 8 levels, selling may continue up to 2 level by non-stop.

Above 10 level, expect short covering up to 14-16 zone by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
 
TATA MOTORS FUTURES 
Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Support at 780 level. If uptrend continues, then it can zoom up to 795 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 798-800 zone by non-stop.

On Negative Side, break below 773 level can create panic up to 769-771 zone by non-stop.
 
 
NIFTY SPOT LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   5169.45 ( -0.36 %) -18.50       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5190.97 5212.48   5227.92  
Support 5154.02 5138.58 5117.07

BSE Sensex  17343.82 ( -0.33 %) -57.74     
  1 2 3
Resistance 17414.98 17486.14 17532.23
Support 17297.73 17251.64 17180.48
 
MTNL: from Sources
-MTNL to offer VRS to increase efficiency
-MTNL wants govt to foot Pension Bill; Pension bill went up to Rs 2,200 crore in last fiscal
Board meets today:
-Himadri Chemical to consider fund raising
-Lloyds Steel: issue of warrants to promoters
 
stocks that are in news today:
-Punjab & Haryana HC dismisses scheme of arrangement between Amtek Auto, Amtek India, Ahmednagar forging on valuation
-DLF restructuring could see company turn into holding firm; 5 sub entities planned – FE
-Taro AGM today, will see vote of shareholders on indemnification of directors and re-election of management
-NTPC to foray into solar energy operations; plans to generate 301 MW via solar energy by March 2014
-Kingfisher still in NSE F&O curb, Aban out
-Panacia Biotec board approves buyback at a maximum price of Rs 189 (CMP: 211)
-Ban on futures trading in sugar extended till September – PTI
-3G auction likely by February 13; last date to apply January 25 – BL
 
ONGC draws a blank in Kerela Konkan basin; Drilling project cost pegged at more than Rs 400 crore – BL
-Export duty on iron ore to push back dispatches by 4.5% or 6 MT – BL 
-Tata Steel, SAIL hike prices on soaring input costs; JSW Steel, Essar, Bhushan to take hikes in January – Mint   
-Emami offloads 19.6% in Zandu Realty @ Rs 6545/share; Emami stake down to 53.2%, values Zandu at over Rs 500 crore – DNA
-Shipping ministry identifies 17 new port projects on PPP basis – DNA
-JSL to hike production capacity to 2.5 MT from current 1.6 MT – DNA
-Hotel Leela successfully cancels $25 million of FCCB's this month; Exposure reduced to $ 66.6 million – DNA 
-JSPL (Jindal Steel & Power) may raise Rocklands Richfield offer to $ 176 million 
 
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 30-Dec-2009 1294.94 1181.47 113.47
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 30-Dec-2009 1164.2 1095.09 69.11
 
 GeoGlobal Resources likely to explore Selan Oil's onshore blocks in Gujarat.
 
 
GeoGlobal Resources Inc., headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, is a US publicly traded oil and gas company, which through its subsidiaries is engaged primarily in the pursuit of petroleum and natural gas through exploration and development in India.   
Since inception, the Company's efforts have been devoted to the pursuit of Production Sharing Contracts with the Government of India. Currently, the Company is focused on the development of high potential exploration targets in the Krishna Godavari, Cambay, Deccan Syneclise and Rajasthan basin areas. The stock is quoted on the Amex in the United States under the symbol GGR 

Oil and Gas Sector in India 

India is continuing to move forward with market-oriented economic reforms that began in 1991. Recent reforms include liberalized foreign investment and exchange regimes, industrial decontrol, significant reductions in tariffs and other trade barriers, reform and modernization of the financial sector, significant adjustments in government monetary and fiscal policies, and safeguarding intellectual property rights. 

Energy demand including oil & gas has increased in tandem with economic growth. India's petroleum product consumption has doubled in last fifteen years. Current consumption of petroleum products in the country is about 120 MMTPA. Production of oil in the country is around 33 MMTPA for last few years. India currently imports over 70% of its crude oil requirements. 

Economic growth is linked to the growth of energy sector and it is expected that oil demand in India would grow three fold by 2020. The demand for gas is expected to grow at a faster rate than oil. The large finds in the east coast of India are expected to ease the situation. 

The search for and development of India's petroleum resources have now acquired an added urgency. This urgency stems from widening gap between the demands of the nation on the pat of vibrant industrial growth and the availability of oil and natural gas to fuel this growth. 

One of the great success stories in the six decades since independence has been the growth and development of the Indian petroleum industry. In the past 60 years, the country witnessed growth of oil production from a mere 0.25 MMT of oil and 3 billion cubic feet of gas in 1947-48 to around 33 MMT today. 

What started off as a minuscule production from one small oil field in the rain forests of upper Assam has today blossomed into major activity in several areas of onland and offshore of India. 

The Government of India, with Directorate General of Hydrocarbons as a nodal agency, formulated the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) in 1997-98 to provide a level playing field to all the parties to compete on equal terms for award of exploration acreage. Government of India's commitment to the liberalization process is reflected in NELP, which has been formulated keeping in mind the immediate need for increasing domestic production. 

This has been a landmark event in the growth of the upstream oil sector in India. The terms and conditions of this open and transparent policy rank amongst the most attractive in the world. To attract more investment in oil exploration and production, NELP has steered steadily towards a level playing field resulting in a healthy spirit of competition between National Oil Companies and private companies. 

"The oil and gas sector in India is fast emerging as the new destination for world business. Opportunity and initiative make a perfect meeting ground for world technologies in petroleum and natural gas exploration, production, refining, distribution and marketing. 

The growing demand for energy has effected changes in the market environment and in policies, culminating in total decontrol of the petroleum sector since April 1, 2002. 

This has opened up the hydrocarbon sector of a country of one billion people where the demand has been growing at the rate of 5-6% per annum, well above the world average." 
 
 
Safe Harbor Statement:
 
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.)
 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Market Outlook 30th Dec 2009

Intraday calls for 30th Dec 2009
+ve sector and script : SKFIndia

Buy Patni-484 @ 480-477 for 497-506 with sl 473
Buy Rpower-154 @ 151-150 for 159 with sl 147
Buy Sintex-268 @ 265-263 for 279 with sl 260

Expected Breakout
Buy Orbitcorp-308 above 320 for 359-365 with sl 308
Buy KFA-60 above 62 for 69-71 with sl 59

NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
SUPPORT
5191
5175
5142
5139
RESISTANCE
5225
5241
5246
5277
 
Strong Futures
This is list of 10 Strong Futures: Hindalco, Sail Ltd, Suzlon, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Ispat Industries, Sintex, BEML, Sesa Goa & NTPC.
Weak Futures
This is the list of 10 Weak Futures: Andhra Bank, JP Associates, Tata Comm, Colpal, Corporation Bank, Ashok Ley, Unitech, Pir Health, IDFC & FSL
 
Daily trend of the market is Up
Today the market has been able to close above its important level and now has come in uptrend . So the readers may create long positions in Nifty and hold the long positions till market remains in uptrend
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 5191 level, expect profit booking up to 5175 level.
Hurdle at 5225 level. Above this level, rally may continue up to 5241 level.

Sell if touches 5244-5246 zone. Stop Loss at 5275-5277 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 5142-5144 zone can create panic up to 5139-5141 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
Equity:  
SESA GOA (NSE Cash)
Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

410 & 411 levels will continue to resist up move. Cross above 415 level, there is a chance of unexpected rally up to 425-427 zone also possible.

Support at 400-402 zone. Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 396 level and thereafter unexpected fall up to 384-386 zone also possible.
 
 
ICICI BANK (NSE Cash)
Recommendation: 

Explosive scrip and it will zoom. Negative Factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 

If rally continues then it can zoom up to 889 level on upper side. If crosses & sustains at above 899 & 903 levels then expect a jump up to unbelievable target of 918-920 zone by non-stop.

Support at 871 & 874 levels. Buying can be done with a Stop Loss of 861-863 zone. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
RELIANCE POWER (NSE Cash)
Recommendation:

 No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

If rally continues then it can zoom up to 156-158 zone by non-stop.

Support at 152 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 149 level.
 
 
KALINDEE RAIL NIRMAN (ENGINEERS) (NSE Cash): 
Explosive & will zoom.

TITAGARH WAGONS (NSE Cash):
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.

APOLLO HOSPITALS (NSE Cash):
 No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.

INDIA CEMENTS (NSE Cash):
 Explosive & will zoom.

BAJAJ HINDUSTAN (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
 
 
CIPLA LTD (NSE Cash): 
No trigger as per my calculations. Bears will get trapped at lower levels.

WIPRO LTD (NSE Cash): 

Fall may continue as per technicals.
 
 
CLARIANT CHEMICA (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 506390)
Explosive Stock.

Expect a Target of 546.60-548.60 zone.

Risk: Loss of Rs.34.95 from the yesterday's closing price. Because, Stop Loss is at 441.75-443.75 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE): 
NIFTY 5200 CALL OPTION
Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with negative bias.
 

If selling continues then it can continue up to 26 & 27 levels and thereafter it can tumble up to
15 level by non-stop. Unbelievable too.

Hurdles at 33 & 36 levels. If crosses & sustains then expect short covering up to unbelievable zone of 45-47 zone.
 
 
TATASTEEL 620 CALL OPTION
Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Hurdle at 11 level. If crosses & sustains then it can zoom up to 14 & 15 levels by non-stop.

Support at 9 level. Below this level, expect unwinding up to 7 level.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE): 
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE FUTURES
Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 1145 level (or) even up to 1147-1149 zone by non-stop.

Support at 1122 level. If does not break 1105-1107 zone then it will rebound.
 
INVESTMENT BUY:
 TIME TECHNOPLAST (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 67.00-69.00 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
 FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 29-Dec-2009 1452.98 1506.71 -53.73
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 29-Dec-2009 979.6 976.41 3.19
 
SPOT INDEX LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   5187.95 ( 0.18 %) 9.55       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5209.75 5231.55   5248.50  
Support 5171.00 5154.05 5132.25

BSE Sensex  17401.56 ( 0.24 %) 40.95     
  1 2 3
Resistance 17467.53 17533.50 17580.95
Support 17354.11 17306.66 17240.69
 

 RIL-LB update
-LB (LyondellBasells) restructuring involves issuing $6.1 billion equity to creditors
-CNBC-TV18 alert : RIL cash component for LB bid could be atleast $6 billion
-RIL will have to better this offer for creditors to agree
Relief for Aviation companies
-Ground Handling Policy (GHP) implementation deferred by year
-Airlines to now be permitted ground handling in terminal
-Tarmac side ground handling to be outsourced
-CNBC-TV18~ALERT: Policy was to take effect from January 1, 2010
-Airline companies want policy to be postponed by 2 years

stocks that are in news today:
-Wockhardt gets US FDA okay for Generic Carvedilol
-Diageo-Radico FDI proposal likely to get FIPB nod – BL
-TBEA, BHEL in talks for partnership; Tie-up will help BHEL compete with Siemens, ABB in high voltage segment – Mint
-ONGC, GAIL may take 12.5% in $ 2 billion gas pipeline in China – Mint
-CVC to probe BSNL tender; Rs 36,000 crore bid seen violating norms – FE
-Kingfisher identifies 3 PE firms to raise $ 400 million; in talks with Aabar, Carlyle and Texas Pacific – FE
-IT firms brace for $ 10 billion GM contracts – DNA 
-Essar Securities lists today, no circuit
-Marksans Pharma board approves selling API business at Pune, raising funds up to $125 million (CMP Rs 5)
-Aban still in NSE F&O curb, Kingfisher also enters curb
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
 
 

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Market Outlook 29th Dec 2009

Intraday calls for 29th Dec 2009

+ve sector and script : Titan, Abirnanuvo, SRTransfin, PSL

 Buy ERAInfra-207 for 214-216 with sl 203

Buy Escorts-124 for 134 with sl 120

Buy Cromptgreav-421 for 434-443 with sl 417

Expected Breakout

Buy HeroHonda-1735 above 1745 for 1777-88 with sl 1735

Buy Bhusansteel-1430 above 1445 for 1460-65 with sl 1435

Positional

Buy AIAEng-354 for 400-413 with sl 330

Buy GSFC-184 for 212 with sl 180

Breakout

Buy Birnalanuvo-910 for 989-1000 with sl 880 [closing basis]

Buy Bomdyeing-405 for 424-460 with sl 388 [closing basis]

 

 
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
RESISTANCE

5210
5233
5237
5259
5285
SUPPORT
5160
5134
5112
5084
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Sail Ltd, Hindalco, GT Offshore, Tata Motors, Suzlon, DCHL, Tata Steel, Praj Industry, Sesa Goa & HCC. 
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Balrampur Chini, Corporation Bank, JP Associates, Andhra Bank, FSL, Pir Health, DCB, Tata Comm, Unitech & Lic house. 
Nifty is in Down trend  
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Above 5210 level, rally may continue up to 5233 & 5237 levels by non-stop.
Support at 5160 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 5134-5136 zone.

Below 5112 level, panic may continue up to 5084-5086 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 5259 level can take it up to 5283-5285 zone. Supply expected
at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
Equity:
TATA STEEL (NSE Cash)
 
Recommendation:

 Explosive scrip and it will zoom. Negative Factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 

Above 608 & 609 levels, it can zoom up to 618 & 622 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 629 level.

Stop Loss can be kept at 598-600 zone and too far on down side.

On Positive Side, cross above 636 level traders can expect further rally up to 639-641 zone.
 
 
BHARTI AIRTEL (NSE Cash)
Recommendation:

 Sell this scrip. Negative factor is that Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Below 324 level, selling may continue up to 316-318 zone and thereafter it can tumble up to 307-309 zone by non-stop.

Stop Loss at 329-331 zone & too far on upper side.
 
 
JET AIRWAYS (NSE Cash)
Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Below 550 level, expect profit booking up to 541-543 zone and technically rebound should happen.

Hurdle at 561 level. Above this level, rally may continue up to 568-570 zone by non-stop.
 
 
NILKAMAL (NSE Cash):
 No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.

GREAT OFFSHORE (NSE Cash): 

No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.

ITI LTD (NSE Cash): 

No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.

HIND CONSTRUCTION CO (NSE Cash): 

Explosive & will try to zoom.
 
 
IDEA CELLULAR (NSE Cash): 
Fall may continue as per Technicals.

JAIPRAKASH ASSOC (NSE Cash): 

No trigger as per my calculations. Bears will get trapped at lower levels.
 
 
VAKRANGEE SOFTWA (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 511431)
Explosive Stock.

Expect a Target of 76.55-76.75 zone on (or) before 31.12.2009.

Risk: Loss of Rs.6.50 from the Thursday's closing price. Because, Stop Loss is at 63.05-63.25 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):  
NIFTY 5100 CALL OPTION
Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

If rally continues, then it may continue up to 114-116 zone (or) up to 121 level.

If breaks & sustains below 93 level, then expect profit booking up to 85 level and thereafter expect panic up to 73 & 76 levels by non-stop.

Buying can be done at lower levels with a Stop Loss at 67-69 zone. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

On Positive Side, cross above 128 level can take it up to 132-134 zone by non-stop.
 
 
RELIANCE 1065 CALL OPTION
Recommendation:

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

If rally continues, then it may continue up to 21 level.

Support at 17 & 18 levels. Buying can be done with a Stop Loss of 13 level.

On Positive Side, cross above 24 level can take it up to 26-28 zone by non-stop.
 
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE): 
 DLF FUTURES
Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Profit Booking up to 368 level will be healthy. If not breaking 366 level then expect rebound too.

Hurdle at 375 level. Above this level, rally may continue up to 379 level by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUY:  
HOTEL LEELA VENT (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 60.30-62.30 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
 
 
SPOT INDEX LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   5178.40 ( 0.66 %) 33.80       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5207.85 5237.30   5276.70  
Support 5139.00 5099.60 5070.15

BSE Sensex  17360.61 ( 0.75 %) 129.50     
  1 2 3
Resistance 17450.17 17539.73 17665.77
Support 17234.57 17108.53 17018.97
 
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 24-Dec-2009 1537.81 830.98 706.83

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 24-Dec-2009 1197.37 1308.48 -111.11
 
RIL - CNBC-TV18 Exclusive: Sources
-RIL (Reliance Industries) updates non binding proposal for LB (LyondellBasells)
-RIL updated proposal has higher cash component;
-Offers cash of $ 5-6 billion versus previous cash offer was for approximately $ 2 billion
Reliance Power: Rose update
-Reliance Power's 1200 MW Rosa Project commences generation
-Stage I: 600 MW power to be supplied to UP, project investment at Rs 6,000 crore
-Stage II: 600 MW expansion underway

 Iron Ore export duty
-Government doubles export duty on Iron Ore Lumps
-Export duty on Iron Ore Lumps hiked to 10% (from 5%)
-5% export duty imposed on Iron Ore Fines versus nil
-Steel Ministry wants 10% export duty on all grades 
 stocks that are in news today:
-Goldman to pick up 9.4% stake in Max India for Rs 540 crore via subscribing to compulsory convertible debentures which will be converted into shares in 15 months
-Advertisers may have to pay 10-15% premium to DTH from January, premium may go up later – BS
-UTV, Sun TV in talks for a Tamil movie channel – BS
-Maruti expects December sales to jump 30% - BS
-3G winners may have to pay bid amount upfront, to get spectrum only in August – BL
-Ranbaxy arm gets FDA warning, USFDA warning to Ohm Lab for manufacturing norm violation
-Board meets today - Zee Entertainment & ETC Networks on detailed composite Scheme of amalgamation
-Aban Offshore still in NSE F&O curb

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Market Outlook 24th Dec 2009

Intraday calls for 24th Dec 2009
+ve sector and script : Suzlon,Voltas,Idea, Hindalco

Buy AuroPharma-911 for 925-930 with sl 905
Buy Tatasteel-604 for 619-625 with sl 599
Buy ROLTA-190 for 194-196 with sl 187

Buy INDIANB-176 for 187 with sl 172 [positional]
Buy DCHL-167 @ 165-163 for 188 with sl 157 [positional] 
 
________________________________________________________________ __
Strong Futures
This is list of 10 Strong Futures:
Sail Ltd, Suzlon, Hindalco, Praj Industry, DCHL, Tata Steel, NTPC, PTC, Ranbaxy & HCL Tech.
Weak Futures
This is the list of 10 Weak Futures:
Andhra Bank, Corporation Bank, FSL, Pir Health, Tata Comm, Ashok Ley, Balrampur Chini, IDFC, Great Offshore & Hind Uni Lvr
_________________________________________________________________
Daily trend of the market is down
We witnessed a sharp upward movement but as market is still in downtrend so it is advisable that the readers who have quit their long positions in nifty on 16th December may now stay out of the market and do not buy till nifty remains in downtrend
___________________________________________________________
 
Merry Christmas.
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
  
Rally may continue up to 5172 level for time being.
Support at 5110 & 5147 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 5044-5046 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4981-4983 zone by non-stop.

Below 4875-4877 zone, expect panic up to 4812-4814 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 5235-5237 zone can take it up to 5299-5301 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
Equity: 
 ICICI BANK (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 

Will face resistance at 871 & 876 levels on upper side. Above 891 level, it can zoom up to 902-904 zone by non-stop.

Support at 854 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to unbelievable level of 838 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 828 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
STERLITE INDS (I) (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is too far on down side. 
 
Rally may continue up to 856 level for time being. Above 864 level, expect a jump up to unbelievable target of 891-893 zone.

Support at 839 level. Below this level, there is a chance of profit booking up to unbelievable levels of 815 & 823 levels also possible. Keep a Stop Loss at 809 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
SHR RENUKA SUGARS (NSE Cash)
Explosive. It will Zoom.
 

Above 223 level, expect a unbelievable target of 229-231 zone by non-stop.

Support at 219 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 215-217 zone and buy.
 
 BSE SENSEX:
Technical: Uptrend should continue (As per 18.12.2009 to 23.12.2009 levels).
 
If this rally continues, then it may touch 17926.40-17928.40 zone on (or) before 31.12.2009.

Remember that, you have a down side risk up to 16577.78-16579.78 zone & this zone should not be allowed to break & close.
 
 
INCAP LTD (BSE Cash & BSE Code:517370)
Explosive Stock. 

Expect a Target of 18.08-18.10 zone on (or) before 31.12.2009. 

Risk: Loss of Rs.2.79 from the yesterday's closing price. Because, Stop Loss is at 12.30-12.32 zone.
 
 
BIRLA ERICSSON (BSE Cash & BSE Code:500060)
Explosive Stock. 

Expect a Target of 21.99-22.01 zone on (or) before 31.12.2009.

Risk: Loss of Rs.2.83 from the yesterday's closing price. Because, Stop Loss is at 13.50-13.52 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):
 
NIFTY 5000 CALL OPTION
Explosive. Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 

Down side risk up to 148 level also possible. Will try to zoom 181 & 194 levels on upper side. If crosses & sustains these levels then expect a jump up to 293-295 zone by non-stop. Unbelievable too.

Below 53 & 58 levels, expect unwinding up to 47 level. Keep a Stop Loss at this level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
TATASTEEL 580 CALL OPTION
Explosive. It will zoom.
 

Hurdles at 29 & 33 levels. Above 41 level, expect a jump up to 47-49 zone by non-stop.

Below 24 level, expect unwinding up to 12 level & Unbelievable too. Keep a Stop Loss at 10 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE): 
 RELIANCE INDS FUTURES
Explosive. Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
Above 1080 level, expect a unbelievable rally up to 1108 & 1120 levels. Cross above 1131 level, it can further jump up to unbelievable target of 1168-1170 zone by non-stop.

Support at 1059 level. Below this level, it can slip up to unbelievable target of 1032 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 1021-1023 zone and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
INVESTMENT BUY:  
ELECTRO STEEL CA (NSE Cash)
 
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 64.70-66.70 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 

 
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 23-Dec-2009 1922.85 1153.32 769.53
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 23-Dec-2009 1411.14 1398.12 13.02
 
 SPOT INDEX LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   5144.60 ( 3.18 %) 158.75       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5200.12 5255.63   5360.67  
Support 5039.57 4934.53 4879.02

BSE Sensex  17231.11 ( 3.23 %) 539.11     
  1 2 3
Resistance 17414.15 17597.18 17942.28
Support 16886.02 16540.92 16357.89


--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Market Outlook 22nd Dec 2009

Intraday calls for 22nd Dec 2009
Buy NBVenture-398 for 412-415 with sl 393
Buy Dr.Reddy-1222 for 1254 with sl 1215
Buy AxisBank-954 for 963-975 with sl 949
Buy BOB-500 for 512-518 with sl 495
 
 
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
RESISTANCE
4962
4986
5008
5029
5051
SUPPORT
4939
4925
4903
4881
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Dr Reddy, Ranbaxy, Lupin, Uniphos, Tata Motors, Gtl Ltd, TCS, ACC, Pantaloon Retail & Divi'S Lab.  
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Andhra Bank, IDFC, Unitech, Aban Off shore, Balrampur Chini, Great Offshore, DLF, Lic house, Orchid Chem & Bank Of India.
Nifty is in Down trend  
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
 
Above 4962 level, expect short covering up to 4984-4986 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5006-5008 zone by non-stop.
Support at 4939 & 4947 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 4925-4927 zone by non-stop.

Below 4903-4905 zone, expect panic up to 4881-4883 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 5027-5029 zone can take it up to 5049-5051 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
BSE SENSEX:
 
Above 16631 level, expect short covering up to 16696-16698 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 16761-16763 zone by non-stop.
Support at 16591 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 16566-16568 zone by non-stop.

Below 16501-16503 zone, expect panic up to 16436-16438 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 16826-16828 zone can take it up to 16891-16893 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 16210.44.
Up Side Target at 18226.48.
 
Equity:
 
BHARTI AIRTEL (NSE Cash)
Will continue to fall. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Hurdle at 313-315 zone & mild rally up to this zone is possible. Keep a Stop Loss at 318-320 zone and sell. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Support at 307 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 302-304 zone and thereafter it can tumble up to 296-298 zone by non-stop.
 
 
NUCLEUS SOFTWARE (NSE Cash)
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
 

Will face resistance at 151-153 zone. If crosses & sustains 170 & 173 levels, then expect a jump up to 190-192 zone by non-stop.

Support at 148 level. Below 133 level, expect unwinding up to 129-131 zone.
 
 
IVRCL INFRASTR & PROJECTS (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side.  
 

Above 352 & 355 levels, rally may continue up to 361 level. Cross above 368 level, expect a jump up to 381-383 zone by non-stop.

Down side risk up to 345 level also possible. If breaks & sustains below this level, then expect profit booking up to 338 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 332-334 zone by non-stop. Keep a Stop Loss at this zone and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
ORCHID CHEM (NSE Cash)
Will continue to fall. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Above 185 level, expect short covering up to 190 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 194-196 zone and sell. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Support at 181 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 175-177 zone and thereafter it can tumble up to 167-169 zone by non-stop.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.30.80? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy ICICI BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 780.10-782.10 zone. 

Target at 837.30-839.30 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.15.35? (From Yesterday's closing price).
Then Sell TATA STEEL (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 569.25-571.25 zone. 

Target at 532.75-534.75 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.28.45? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy TCS (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 705.60-707.60 zone. 

Target at 750.60-752.60 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):
 
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION
Will continue to gain. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 

Above 105 level, rally may continue up to 116 & 121 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 131-133 zone by non-stop.

Support at 79 & 86 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 70 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 62-64 zone by non-stop. Keep a Stop Loss at this zone and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
RELIANCE 1020 PUT OPTION
Bulls will lose control. But down side will be limited.
 

Above 24 level, expect short covering up to 31 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 36 level by non-stop.

Support at 20 level. Below this level, expect unwinding up to 16 level by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
 
RELIANCE CAPITAL FUTURES 
Fall may continue. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Hurdle at 812 level. Selling can be done with a Stop Loss of 819-821 zone. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Fall may continue up to 795 level on down side. Below 789 & 792 levels, expect panic up to 779-781 zone by non-stop.
 
 
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS FUTURES
Fall may continue. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Hurdles at 705 & 710 levels. Selling can be done with a Stop Loss of 713-715 zone.

Fall may continue up to 691 level on down side. If breaks & sustains 685-687 zone, then it can tumble up to 676-678 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:
 
PRAJ INDS (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 105.70-107.70 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
 
INDIA CEMENTS (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 124.75-126.75 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
 
Funds Data
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 21-Dec-2009 1836.24 2128.18 -291.94
 
 
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 21-Dec-2009 1180.71 826.88 353.83
 
 
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
 

Monday, December 21, 2009

Market Outlook 21st Dec 2009 & Weekly Update

Intraday calls for 21st Dec 2009

Buy Mphasis-725 @ 710-707 for 725-730 with sl 695

Buy Jothistru-160 @ 152-150 for 175 with sl 147

Buy DivisLab-664 @ 652-648 for 675 with sl 635

Buy Dr.Reddy-1207 for 1287 with sl 1080 [positional]

 
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
RESISTANCE

5001
5032
5061
5090
5119
SUPPORT
4977
4960
4931
4902 
HAVELLS;BANKBARODA;KFA;CON&KINGS;DCHL;TATAMOTOR;RANBAXY;LUPIN;DRREADDY

 
Strong & Weak  futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Ranbaxy, Lupin, Dr Reddy, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Cipla, ACC, Sail Ltd, Gtl Ltd & Divi'S Lab. And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Andhra Bank, Aban Off shore, Ivrcl Infra, Tata Comm, GVKPIL, Allahabad Bank, Educomp, Lic house, BRFL & Unitech. 
Nifty is in Down trend 

 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Above 5001 level, expect short covering up to 5030-5032 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5059-5061 zone by non-stop.
Support at 4977 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 4960-4962 zone.

Below 4931-4933 zone, expect panic up to 4902-4904 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 5088-5090 zone can take it up to 5117-5119 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
 
 Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
CNX BANK INDEX (F&O):  
Above 8617 level, expect short covering up to 8672-8674 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 8728-8730 zone by non-stop.
Support at 8587 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 8558-8560 zone.

Below 8502-8504 zone, expect panic up to 8447-8449 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 8783-8785 zone can take it up to 8839-8841 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 8550.00.
Up Side Target at 9996.00.

Problem is that, we are trading near Stop Loss level. If Breaks & Closes below 8550.00 level for consecutive 3 days then it can tumble up to 7827.00 level by non-stop.
 
Equity:  
HOUSING DEV & INFRA (NSE Cash)
Selling may continue & Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Above 343 level, expect short covering up to 349 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 353-355 zone. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Support at 336 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 326 & 329 levels and thereafter it can tumble up to 319-321 zone by
non-stop.
 
 
HAVELLS INDIA (NSE Cash)
Range bound trading expected. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.
 

Above 574 level, buying may continue up to 590 & 596 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 606-608 zone by non-stop.

Support at 562 level. Below 500 & 505 levels, expect unwinding up to 488-490 zone by non-stop.
 
 
TATA STEEL (NSE Cash)
Selling may continue & Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Hurdle at 569 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 574-576 zone and sell. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Support at 558 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 548-550 zone by non-stop.
 
 
COX & KINGS (I)
Range bound trading expected. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.
 

Above 425 & 431 levels, buying may continue up to 465-467 zone by non-stop.

Down side risk up to 416 level also possible. Below 384 level, it can tumble up to 374-376 zone by non-stop.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.15.85? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy BANK OF BARODA (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 486.05-488.05 zone. 

Target at 533.60-535.60 zone.
  
Will you take a risk of Rs.8.00? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy DECCAN CHRONICLE HOLDING (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 150.00-152.00 zone. 

Target at 168.80-170.80 zone. 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.16.60? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Sell JSW STEEL (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 992.30-994.30 zone. 

Target at 948.50-950.50 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):  
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION
Expected to gain. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side. 
 
Down side risk up to 81 level also possible. Will try to touch 99 level on upper side. If crosses & sustains at above 116 & 122 levels then it can zoom up to 129-131 zone by non-stop.

Below 73 level, expect profit booking up to 58 & 64 levels. Keep a Stop Loss at 50-52 zone and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
RELIANCE 1020 PUT OPTION
Expected to gain. Will you take a risk of Rs 11.40 from the yesterday's closing price?
 
Above 33 level, rally may continue up to 38 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 45-47 zone by non-stop.

Support at 45-47 zone, Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 19 level. Keep a Stop Loss at this level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
ICICI BANK FUTURES
Selling may continue.  

Hurdle at 816 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 822-824 zone. Stop Loss if too far on upper side.

Support at 796 & 800 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 787 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 780-782 zone by non-stop.
 
 
TATA MOTORS FUTURES
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels. 
 
Hurdle at 737 level. Above this level, buying may continue up to 745 & 752 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 758-760 zone by non-stop.

Support at 722 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 714 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 699-701 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:  
GHCL (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 78.90-80.90 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
 
KINGFISHER AIRLINES (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 60.55-62.55 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
 
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 18-Dec-2009 2227.95 2434.8 -206.85
 
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 18-Dec-2009 1391.31 1060.36 330.95
 
 
Index Outlook: Bears gain the upper hand


Sensex (16,719.8)

Santa Claus failed to make an appearance last week but investors were kept greatly entertained by the game of one-upmanship played by the premier stock exchanges of our country and as a section of the broking fraternity started protesting passionately against the exchange's ad-hoc decision to advance trading hours. In all this drama, the investors, to service whom these exchanges and broking intermediaries exist, seem to have been blissfully forgotten. A survey of investors would definitely show that they have no objection whatsoever to this extension.

The Sensex appeared almost spineless last week and collapsed lower to close 400 points down. With a truncated week ahead and the holiday mood only likely to get stronger from next weekend, it is difficult to see how equities can garner the impetus to move any higher in the next couple of weeks. That said this lethargic mood is also likely to thwart any serious slide in the near term.

That leaves us once more with a tired market that limps sideways in the home stretch as 2009 draws to a close. Weekly rate of change oscillator has dipped slightly in to the negative zone and relative strength index is at 58. Both these indicators signal that the medium term trend has not yet reversed lower and the index is still in neutral zone with a move likely in either direction. Daily indicators have however moved in to negative zone implying that short-term can be rocky.

Close below the 50-day moving average at 16,832 is also a concern from near term perspective. But the Sensex has support in the vicinity at 16,640 and 16,580. If the index rebounds from these levels, it can move towards the 17,350 and 17,500 once more in the near term.

But continuation of the decline below 16,580 will take Sensex to 16,400 or 16,100. The medium term trend for the index is up since the November 3 low of 15,330. This uptrend will reverse only on a close below 16,100. The zone between 16,000 and 16,200 is a critical support since it lies at the 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous down-move. This zone needs to hold if the index has to rally higher in 2010.

There is however need for caution from an intermediate and long-term perspective since the first target of the move from the March lows is at 17800 and the index can end the move +/- 5 per cent from this level. We are awaiting a move towards 17,800 or 18,200 but the index could have pulled a fast one on us and have already ended the intermediate term up-trend. Investors should therefore maintain a target return for recent purchases, especially in mid and small cap stocks and exit once these returns are achieved.

The index has strong short term support at 16,640. A rebound from this level can take it higher to 17,000, 17,120 or 17,350 next week. Failure to move above 17,000 will usher in a decline to 16,620 or 16,400. Subsequent support for the index is at 16,210.

Nifty (4,987.7)


It was a let down as far as the Nifty movement was concerned last week. But the up trend from the 4,806 low has not reversed yet. A close below 4,950 is required to signal that the short-term trend has reversed lower. Traders holding long positions can continue to do so as long as the index holds above the zone between 4,930 and 4,950.

Breach of this support would mean that the index could decline further to 4,880 or to the key medium term support between 4,780 and 4,800. Resistances for the week would be at 5,070 and 5,130. Failure to move above the first resistance would be a cue for traders to initiate fresh short positions.

We maintain a positive medium term view for the index as long as it trades above 4,780. Close below this level would imply that a re-test of the November low at 4,530 is possible.

Global Cues

The bias in global equity markets was clearly negative last week and most benchmarks closed with mild losses. CBOE VIX spiked up to 23 on Friday indicating that investors were getting edgy with this directionless market movement. In a week that equities trudged sideways, commodities performed relatively better and Reuters CRB index closed 1 per cent higher last week. The dollar index too closed over 2 per cent higher last week causing a ripple of worry through equity markets.

Dow gave up all the gains made in the previous week by closing 142 points lower. But this index has been moving in an extremely narrow band between 10,200 and 10,500 over the last five weeks and the bias remains positive for the medium term and the possibility of new high also remain open as long as the index trades above 10,200. Targets on an upward break-out remain at 10,759 or 11,080.

Pivotals: Reliance Industries (Rs 1,010.4)


Reliance Industries dragged rest of the market down last week with the decline of Rs 58. This was in line with our expectation of a fall to Rs 1,008. Strong close below the 50-day moving average at Rs 1,050 is a cause for worry. But the stock has support in the immediate vicinity at Rs 1,011 where a trough was formed on November 27. A reversal is possible from here that can take the stock higher to Rs 1,050 and Rs 1,080 in the near term.

Inability to rise above the first resistance will result in a decline towards Rs 988 or Rs 975. Medium-term trend in RIL is sideways and the stock is moving in a band between Rs 850 and Rs 1,200 in this period. Medium-term investors can accumulate the stock on declines close to the lower end of this range.


SBI (Rs 2,144.9)

SBI too took a decisive step down towards the lower end of its medium term range between Rs 2,050 and Rs 2,500. The short-term trend in the stock reversed lower from the December 10 peak of Rs 2,344. This move can continue to drag the stock down to the support zone between Rs 2,045 and Rs 2,060. Fresh long positions should be avoided on a close below Rs 2,050 since the next target for the stock is between Rs 1,900 and Rs 1,950.

Short term resistances for the stock are at Rs 2,225 and Rs 2,280. Failure to move above the first resistance would be the cue for short-term traders to initiate fresh short positions with a stop at Rs 2,250.


Tata Steel (Rs 563.2)

Tata Steel defied the market weakness last week and closed with 3 per cent weekly gain. Reversal above Rs 530 denotes strength in the short term and a possible move higher to Rs 600 or Rs 636. But the stock is likely to face strong resistance around the previous peak of Rs 600 and short-term traders can take some money off the table around this level. Stop loss for short term can be at Rs 530. Supports below Rs 530 are at Rs 490 and Rs 430. Medium-term investors can continue to hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 430.


Infosys (Rs 2,526.5)

Infosys recorded the first emphatic weekly close above its life-time high of Rs 2,439 recorded in February 2007. The stock can race higher to Rs 2,637 or Rs 2,840 over the medium term.

Traders can therefore continue to hold the stock with a stop at Rs 2,470. Subsequent support for the stock is at Rs 2,440 and Rs 2,400.

Traders can buy on declines as long as the stock holds above Rs 2,400.

The medium-term view is also positive and investors can hold as long as it holds above the previous peak of Rs 2,439.

ONGC (Rs 1,185.5)

ONGC moved in an extremely narrow range between Rs 1,180 and Rs 1,220 last week. The medium-term trend in the stock is up since the October 29 low. But it is facing stiff resistance in the zone between Rs 1,200 and Rs 1,220 and fresh longs are recommended only on a move beyond this zone with the target of Rs 1,270.


Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,548.5)

Maruti eased lower gradually to end the week with loss of Rs 38. Immediate supports are at Rs 1,515 and Rs 1,480. Short term traders can hold with a stop at Rs 1,510. Resistances for the week would be at Rs 1,615 and Rs 1,657. Failure to move above the first resistance would imply continued weakness in the near term

RIL – RNRL update
-Arguments in RIL-RNRL D6 gas case conclude at SC (Supreme Court)
Solicitor General Says:
-Government property being used for mergers-demergers
-EGoM (Empowered Group of Minister) decided pricing, allocation can't be challenged
-Govt has been subject to trial by ambush
-Surprised that RIL claimed RNRL allocated gas by EGoM
-RIL no more than an agent for selling gas

Reliance Calls: stocks that are in news today:
-MRF FY09 results today
-IFCI still in NSE F&O curb
-SEBI asks govt to mull action against RIL for allegedly routing funds to dummy cos for buying large quantity of its shares in 2000: PTI
-Telangana impact: KCR warns that illegal lands acquired by Dr Reddy's and IMAX will be confiscated once Telangana is formed
-Lilly wins British drug patent case versus Dr Reddy's
-REC FPO to hit markets in January-February 2010: Power Ministry
-ONGC declares 2 gas finds, Rs 18 per share dividend
-Bright Brothers open offer at Rs 50 (CMP 43)
-Golden Tobacco board meet to consider development of properties
-Indiabulls Financials, Societe General sever ties for life insurance JV – FE

 

Friday, December 18, 2009

Market Outlook 18th Dec 2009

 
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
SUPPORT
5013
5004
4981
4966
RESISTANCE
5048
5072
5087
5095
5110
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Ranbaxy, Pantaloon Retail, Tata Chem, ACC, Bajaj Auto, Hotel Leela, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Sail Ltd & Gtl Ltd.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Off shore, Andhra Bank, Ivrcl Infra, Idea, Tata Comm, Orient Bank, Allahabad Bank, BRFL, Lic house & IOB.
 Nifty is in Down trend 
 
 
 NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Below 5013 level, selling may continue up to 5004-5006 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4989-4991 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 5046-5048 zone. Above this zone, expect short covering up to 5070-5072 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5085-5087 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 5093-5095 zone. Stop Loss at 5108-5110 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4981-4983 zone can create panic up to 4966-4968 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
BSE SENSEX: 
 Selling may continue up to 16670.48-16672.48 zone.
Stop Loss is too far on upper side at 17065.77-17067.77 zone.
 
Equity:
 
DLF (NSE Cash)
Down side is limited & may recover from lower levels.

Below 362 level, selling may continue up to 358 level.

Above 369 level, expect short covering up to 377-379 zone by non-stop.
 
 
CROMPTON GREAVES (NSE Cash)
Explosive & will zoom.

Down side risk up to 415 level also possible. Above 424-426 zone, it can zoom up to 444 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 448-450 zone by non-stop.

If breaks & sustains below 415 level, then expect unwinding up to 401 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 398 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
ATLANTA LTD (NSE Cash)
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.

Above 174 level, rally may continue up to 177 & 178 levels.

Below 170 level, expect profit booking up to 148 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 147 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
DR.REDDY'S LABS (NSE Cash)
Explosive & will zoom.

Above 1186 & 1192 levels, rally may continue up to 1216 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1224-1226 zone by non-stop.

Below 1163 level, expect profit booking up to 1150 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 1140 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.15.30? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy HCL TECH FUTURES (NSE) with a Stop Loss of 343.00-345.00 zone. 

Target at 376.80-378.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.7.05? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy YES BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 245.00-247.00 zone. 

Target at 261.80-263.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.9.20? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy CANARA BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 377.00-379.00 zone. 

Target at 391.00-393.00 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):  
TATASTEEL 560 PUT OPTION
No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Above 16 level, expect short covering up to 19 level by non-stop.

Below 12 level, selling may continue up to 10 level.
 
 
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION
Expected to gain. 

Down side risk up to 71 level also possible. Above 87 & 90 levels, it can zoom up to 107-109 zone by non-stop.

Below 63 level, expect further selling up to 53-55 zone by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
TCS FUTURES
Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Down side risk up to 710 & 716 levels also possible. Keep a Stop Loss at 701-703 zone. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Will try to rally up to 730 level. Above 736 level, expect a jump up to 742-744 zone by non-stop.
 
 
HOUSING DEV & INFRA FUTURES
Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Below 347 level, expect profit booking up to 334 level by non-stop. Keep a Stop Loss at 332 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

354 & 355 levels will continue to resist up move. Above 372 level, expect a jump up to 375-377 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:
GLENMARK PHARM (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 275.45-277.45 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
 
 
EXIDE INDS (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 124.20-126.20 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
SPOT LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   5041.75 ( -0.01 %) -0.30       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5066.25 5090.75   5117.30  
Support 5015.20 4988.65 4964.15

BSE Sensex  16894.25 ( -0.11 %) -18.52     
  1 2 3
Resistance 16973.85 17053.44 17127.37
Support 16820.33 16746.40 16666.81
 
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 17-Dec-2009 2356.45 2163.63 192.82
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 17-Dec-2009 1225.62 1092.34 133.28
 
 
stocks that are in news today:
-Board meet: Pipavav Shipyard on general business activity
-Bright Bros buy back offer at maximum Rs 50/share
-Sona Koya eyes acquisition in aerospace –DNA
-Bank of Baroda: FIIs can purchase in open market
-IFCI still in NSE F&O curb
-Tata Motors Group global sales grew by 62% in November 2009 versus November 2008
-No circuit filter for D-link India today
-Aarey Drugs approves 2:1 rights issue at Rs 25 (cmp 44)
-KRBL board approves 1:10 stock split
-Indian ADRs: HDFC Bank down 4.7%, ICICI Bank down 3.5%
_Reliance Calls: RNRL – Dadri case update
-UP government initiates repossession procedure for Dadri land
-CNBC-TV18 ALERT: Dadri land allotted to ADAG company power plant
-UP Power Secretary asks land to be returned to farmers ready to return compensation
ketan lakhani_Reliance Calls: RIL-RNRL case update: RIL says
-If 40 mmscmd sold at $2.34, will get return of 2.6%
-Rate of return even lower than borrowing cost
-Selling at $2.34/mmbtu subsidy to RNRL will be $6.3 billion
-Company borrowed $6 bn at average rate of 10%
-At $2.34/mmBtu, net return is $1.8 on investment of $12      
-At valuation of $4.2/mmbtu, total cost is $1.94/mmBtu
-By selling 40 mmscmd at $2.34/mmbtu, profit $0.23
-Return of equity pre tax at 3.9%; post tax at 2.5%
-Ind norm for equity return for similar project at 20%
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 18th Dec 2009

 
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
SUPPORT
5013
5004
4981
4966
RESISTANCE
5048
5072
5087
5095
5110
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Ranbaxy, Pantaloon Retail, Tata Chem, ACC, Bajaj Auto, Hotel Leela, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Sail Ltd & Gtl Ltd.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Off shore, Andhra Bank, Ivrcl Infra, Idea, Tata Comm, Orient Bank, Allahabad Bank, BRFL, Lic house & IOB.
 Nifty is in Down trend 
 
 
 NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Below 5013 level, selling may continue up to 5004-5006 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4989-4991 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 5046-5048 zone. Above this zone, expect short covering up to 5070-5072 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5085-5087 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 5093-5095 zone. Stop Loss at 5108-5110 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4981-4983 zone can create panic up to 4966-4968 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
BSE SENSEX: 
 Selling may continue up to 16670.48-16672.48 zone.
Stop Loss is too far on upper side at 17065.77-17067.77 zone.
 
Equity:
 
DLF (NSE Cash)
Down side is limited & may recover from lower levels.

Below 362 level, selling may continue up to 358 level.

Above 369 level, expect short covering up to 377-379 zone by non-stop.
 
 
CROMPTON GREAVES (NSE Cash)
Explosive & will zoom.

Down side risk up to 415 level also possible. Above 424-426 zone, it can zoom up to 444 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 448-450 zone by non-stop.

If breaks & sustains below 415 level, then expect unwinding up to 401 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 398 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
ATLANTA LTD (NSE Cash)
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.

Above 174 level, rally may continue up to 177 & 178 levels.

Below 170 level, expect profit booking up to 148 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 147 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
DR.REDDY'S LABS (NSE Cash)
Explosive & will zoom.

Above 1186 & 1192 levels, rally may continue up to 1216 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1224-1226 zone by non-stop.

Below 1163 level, expect profit booking up to 1150 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 1140 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.15.30? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy HCL TECH FUTURES (NSE) with a Stop Loss of 343.00-345.00 zone. 

Target at 376.80-378.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.7.05? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy YES BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 245.00-247.00 zone. 

Target at 261.80-263.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.9.20? (From Yesterday's closing price). 
Then Buy CANARA BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 377.00-379.00 zone. 

Target at 391.00-393.00 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):  
TATASTEEL 560 PUT OPTION
No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Above 16 level, expect short covering up to 19 level by non-stop.

Below 12 level, selling may continue up to 10 level.
 
 
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION
Expected to gain. 

Down side risk up to 71 level also possible. Above 87 & 90 levels, it can zoom up to 107-109 zone by non-stop.

Below 63 level, expect further selling up to 53-55 zone by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
TCS FUTURES
Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Down side risk up to 710 & 716 levels also possible. Keep a Stop Loss at 701-703 zone. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Will try to rally up to 730 level. Above 736 level, expect a jump up to 742-744 zone by non-stop.
 
 
HOUSING DEV & INFRA FUTURES
Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Below 347 level, expect profit booking up to 334 level by non-stop. Keep a Stop Loss at 332 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

354 & 355 levels will continue to resist up move. Above 372 level, expect a jump up to 375-377 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:
GLENMARK PHARM (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 275.45-277.45 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
 
 
EXIDE INDS (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 124.20-126.20 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
SPOT LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   5041.75 ( -0.01 %) -0.30       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5066.25 5090.75   5117.30  
Support 5015.20 4988.65 4964.15

BSE Sensex  16894.25 ( -0.11 %) -18.52     
  1 2 3
Resistance 16973.85 17053.44 17127.37
Support 16820.33 16746.40 16666.81
 
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 17-Dec-2009 2356.45 2163.63 192.82
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 17-Dec-2009 1225.62 1092.34 133.28
 
 
stocks that are in news today:
-Board meet: Pipavav Shipyard on general business activity
-Bright Bros buy back offer at maximum Rs 50/share
-Sona Koya eyes acquisition in aerospace –DNA
-Bank of Baroda: FIIs can purchase in open market
-IFCI still in NSE F&O curb
-Tata Motors Group global sales grew by 62% in November 2009 versus November 2008
-No circuit filter for D-link India today
-Aarey Drugs approves 2:1 rights issue at Rs 25 (cmp 44)
-KRBL board approves 1:10 stock split
-Indian ADRs: HDFC Bank down 4.7%, ICICI Bank down 3.5%
_Reliance Calls: RNRL – Dadri case update
-UP government initiates repossession procedure for Dadri land
-CNBC-TV18 ALERT: Dadri land allotted to ADAG company power plant
-UP Power Secretary asks land to be returned to farmers ready to return compensation
ketan lakhani_Reliance Calls: RIL-RNRL case update: RIL says
-If 40 mmscmd sold at $2.34, will get return of 2.6%
-Rate of return even lower than borrowing cost
-Selling at $2.34/mmbtu subsidy to RNRL will be $6.3 billion
-Company borrowed $6 bn at average rate of 10%
-At $2.34/mmBtu, net return is $1.8 on investment of $12      
-At valuation of $4.2/mmbtu, total cost is $1.94/mmBtu
-By selling 40 mmscmd at $2.34/mmbtu, profit $0.23
-Return of equity pre tax at 3.9%; post tax at 2.5%
-Ind norm for equity return for similar project at 20%
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381