Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Market Outlook 10th Feb 2010

NSE Nifty Index   5101.50 ( -0.44 %) -22.50       
 1 23
Resistance 5124.085146.67   5161.53  
Support 5086.635071.77 5049.18

BSE Sensex 17052.54 ( -0.29 %) -50.06      
 1 23
Resistance 17111.8417171.15 17211.46
Support 17012.2216971.91 16912.60

Strong & Weak stocks
This is list of 10 strong:  
Orient Bank, Sesa Goa, JSW Steel, Hero Honda, Siemens, LITL, M&M, Sterling Biotech, Mcdowell-N & Pir Health. 
And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 
Bajaj Hind, Mphasis, BPCL, Chambal Fert, Pantaloon Retail, Balrampur Chini, Tech Mahindra, Tulip, Tata Comm & Dish TV.
Nifty is in Up trend  

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 5110 level, expect short covering up to 5122-5124 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5135-5137 zone by non-stop. 
Support at 5092-5094 zone. Below this zone, selling may continue up to 5087 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 5080-5082 zone by non-stop. 
Buy if touches 5068-5070 zone. Stop Loss at 5056-5058 zone. 
On Positive Side, cross above 5147-5149 zone can take it up to 5159-5161 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. 
Up Side Target at 5239.70. 
Stop Loss at 5050.30. 
We are trading near Stop Loss Level. We should believe that Stop Loss won't get triggered. If breaks & closes below 5050.30 level by consecutive 3 days then it can tumble up to 4955.60 level by non-stop.

Equity:
Jubilant Foodworks Ltd (NSE: Traded as JUBLFOOD) 
Rally expected on Yesterday & Bulls beaten expectations. Uptrend should continue today also. 

Buy for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 323 level. 
Stop Loss at 273 level.

Infosys Technologies Ltd (NSE: Traded as INFOSYSTCH) 
Rally expected on Yesterday. Bulls failed to achieve the expected target. Uptrend should continue today also. 

Buy for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 2787 level. 
Stop Loss at 2618 level.

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd (NSE: Trades as HDFC) 
Rally expected on Yesterday. Impressive performance by Bulls & They achieved the Target. Uptrend should continue today also. 
Buy for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 2745 level. 
Stop Loss at 2587 level.

 
BANKBARODA (NSE Cash):  
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 3 days.  

FINANTECH (NSE Cash):  
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 2 days. 

PIRHEALTH (NSE Cash): 
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 5 days.  

MRF (NSE Cash): 
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 3 days.  

AMRUTANJAN (NSE Cash): 
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 2 days.

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5100  PUT OPTION 
Nice move on yesterday & unexpected rally too. Uptrend should continue. 

If rally continues, then expect a jump up to 111.20 level by non-stop. 
Unexpectedly if profit booking starts, then it can tumble up to 64.80 level by non-stop and have caution.

HINDALCO 160 PUT OPTION 
Nice move on yesterday & expected rally and Bulls beaten expectations. Uptrend should continue. 

If rally continues, then expect a jump up to 8.20 level by non-stop. 
Unexpectedly if profit booking starts, then it can tumble up to 2.90 level by non-stop and have caution.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
SINTEX FUTURES 
Nice move on yesterday & expected rally and Bulls beaten expectations. Uptrend should continue. 

Buy with a Stop Loss of 259 level for Intra-Day Gains. Target at 289 level.

ORCHIDCHEM FUTURES 
Nice move on yesterday & unexpected rally too. Uptrend should continue today also & even up to 12.03.2010. 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 167 level with a Target of 178 level. It may zoom even up to 179 level on (or) before 12.03.2010. 
Stop Loss on (or) before 12.03.2010 should be at 158 level.


Heidelberg Cement Offers an upside of 30 per cent 
BSE 500292

Heidelberg Cement-Sitting Upon A Pile of Cash 
Revenues CY09 Rs 981 crore (Rs 805 crore)

PAT CY09 Rs 134 crore (Rs 125 crore)

Equity Rs 226 crore (Rs 158 crore)

Ownership-Cementrum 69%, FII/DII-6% 

EPS Rs 5.85 (Rs 5.92)

Market Cap-Rs 1084 crore

Net Worth December 2009-Rs 703 crore

Net Cash In Hand December 2009-Rs 493 crore

Net Cash per share-Rs 22 

Total Cement Capacity-3.01 mn tpa

Heidelberg's Market Value Net of Cash-Rs 591 crore

A 3 mn tpa plant selling for Rs 591 crore; gross undervaluation compared to a replacement cost of roughly Rs 1500 crore. 

 

Growth Phase Begins: Capacity to rise to 6 mn tpa by March 2012 with little recourse to debt for expansion.

 

Damoh and Jhansi units currently sell 100% of their cement production in Madhya Pradesh ( MP ) and Uttar Pradesh ( UP ) and the current market share is 8.60% in MP and 6.20% in UP .

 

• Influencing markets for Damoh and Jhansi units are Uttar Pradesh , Madhya Pradesh , Bihar , Haryana , Rajasthan , Delhi and Uttarakhand as plants located in these states cater to 90% of the total demand in these states .

 

• Cement demand in these markets is expected to grow from 61 million t to 99 Million t in this period ( avg. CAGR 8.55% ) . Cement capacity for this region is also estimated to increase from 69 million t to 102 million t in 2015 (avg. CAGR 6.81%).

 

• The present capacity utilization in influencing markets for Damoh and Jhansi units is 88.5% . This is expected to increase to 95% by 2015. Based on this there is room for further capacity increase in this region.

 

• With the proposed additional cement production of 2.81 million tpa post expansion , HCIL targets a market share of 9.0% in MP and 7.3% in UP by 2015 .

 


Added advantage in form of secured mining lease of limestone with adequate reserves.

 

Expansion of clinker manufacturing capacity from 1.2 MTPA to 3.1 MTPA at Narsingarh, District Damoh, Madhya Pradesh.

 

• Expansion of cement grinding capacity from 1 MTPA to 2 MTPA at Imlai, District Damoh, Madhya Pradesh.

 

• Expansion of cement grinding capacity from 0.8 MTPA to 2.7 MTPA at Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh.

 

• Commercial production Mar 2012.

 

• Environmental clearance and Consent to Establish have been issued for both Damoh and Jhansi (plants + mines). 
 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)


FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
FII09-Mar-2010 4202.892029.8 2173.09
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
DII09-Mar-2010 1092.91264.56 -171.66
Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."
-- 
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381