Market Outlook 9th Nov 2010

Scripts to be watched today : Bhartiatl, Bhel, BPCL, DLF, HCLTech, HeroHonda, KotakBank, Martui, Rcom, RelCap, Reliance, RELInfra, TataPower, Tisco, Wipro

• Supp / Resis SPOT/CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY

Indices		Supp/Resis	1	2	3
	Nifty	Resistance	6317.62	6362.03	6388.17
		Support	6247.07	6220.93	6176.52
	Sensex	Resistance	21011.27	21170.16	21264.61
		Support	20757.93	20663.48	20504.59

Market Outlook
	Yesterday, Nifty fell by 39 points and closed below 6,280 level. Technically, we could see a consolidation in the range of 6,300-6,200 in the market before moving to higher levels. Technical indicator MACD has given a positive crossing over its respective average indicating the positive underlying trend. Immediate resistance for Nifty comes in the band of 6,357-6,370 while immediate support could be seen at 6,225-6,200 mark. On the Derivative front, Options concentration for Calls is highest at 6500 strike call while Put concentration continues to be highest at 6000 strike Put. However, we are also observing rapid addition in 6300 and 6200 Puts with OI over 3.1 million and 4.8 million, respectively. Any further upmove in the Nifty will force covered Put writers to shift their positions from 6000 Put to 6300 Put, hinting the new trading range to be 6,300-6,500. Indian markets is likely to open with downward bias tracking weak cues from global markets. Thereafter Nifty is likely to consolidate between 6,250 to 6,300 level. Selling pressure could be seen in Banking stock as SBI failed to meet earnings forecast with its second-quarter net profit. Buying could be witnessed in State-run oil marketers like HPCL, BPCL, IOC which have raised petrol prices by approximately 31-33 paise a litre.

Tip for the day
	AMBUJA CEMENT(BUY) RSI is at 74 overbought territory showing positive crossover indicating uptrend. Stochastic is hovering in overbought showing positive crossover suggesting upside. MACD is trading in positive zone, showing bullish crossover confirming indicating uptrend. CMP Buy/Sell Target Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance 163.60 BUY 166/169/172  158 150/175 WOCKHARDT (BUY) Stock already crossed 34 Day EWMA and expecting to rise further. MACD showing positive divergence. Today stock has also broken its 52 week high supported with volume indicating further upside. RSI is at 78 level, indicating more buying. CMP Buy/Sell Target Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance 400.25 BUY 404/410/416  394 350/420 JUBILANT FOODWORKS (BUY) RSI is trading in over bought territory at 77 indicating more buying. MACD showing positive divergence. Stochastic has also just entered into overbought territory moving upward suggesting further upside. Stock next resistance level seems at 640 if its break then stock could rise up to 670. CMP Buy/Sell Target Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance 623.20 BUY 630/640/650  610 600/650

Strong & Weak  Stocks

This is list of 10 strong stocks: 

Chambal Fert, Canara Bank, Renuka, Dish TV, Nagar Fert, IDBI, Ambuja Cement, Auro Pharam, KFA & Dena Bank. 

And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 

BRFL, Sail, Hind Petro, Finan Tech, Educomp, Power Grid, Mphasis, Pir Health, NTPC & LITL.

The daily trend of nifty is in Uptrend 

US markets
	US stocks slipped as profit taking contributed to the initial weakness with investors cashing in on the recent strength in the markets amid a light news day. In corporate news, McDonald's October global comparable sales grew 6.5%, driven by growth across all market segments. Meanwhile, the company's system-wide sales for the month grew by 7.4%. Specialty chemicals company Ashland also announced the signing of a definitive agreement to sell its global distribution business to private equity firm TPG Capital for USD 930 million. In earnings news, food wholesaler Sysco posted first quarter net income that was in line with expectations, while its quarterly sales rose by more than 7%, topping forecasts. Dynegy reported a wider than expected third quarter net loss due to asset impairment charges, while its quarterly revenues exceeded Wall Street estimates by a margin totaling over USD 100 million.

European markets
	European markets closed lower as renewed worries about debt-saddled euro zone strengthened the dollar, hurting commodities prices. Banking stocks were under pressure after German financial giant Commerzbank reported third-quarter earnings below expectations. Miners and energy producers also retreated amid weak commodity prices, as the US dollar gained ground for a second straight day. In economic news, Germany's trade surplus widened to EUR 16.8 billion in September from EUR 9 billion in the previous month. German industrial production fell 0.8% in September and Year-over-year output growth eased to 7.9% from 10.7% in August. A measure of investor confidence in the euro zone improved to 14 in November from 8.8 in October, according to results of a survey from market research group Sentix.

Indian markets (Prev Day)
	The domestic bourses traded weak throughout the session as the benchmark indices took a breather after three straight gaining sessions. The market carried forward the previous week's upmove during the early trade and opened in the positive terrain. The Asian markets started off positive but soon turned mixed amidst a tepid close on Friday on Wall Street, as investors stayed cautious despite a report from the Labor Department showing that employers added more jobs than forecasted. Soon after the start, the benchmarks were seen dipping below the baseline and started trading sideways in a narrow range. Despite of a mild attempt for the market to move on to the higher side post mid-session, the move remained shortlived and the domestic bourses continued to trade rangebound below the unchanged zone for the rest of the session. In the sectorial front, the IT, PSU and the Banking space remained the major draggers, declining by 1.54%, 1.23% and 1.16% respectively. However, the Healthcare and Realty sector traded firm gaining by 0.65% and 0.37% respectively. Both the Nifty and Sensex showed weakness throughout the session and closed near their respective intraday lows. The NSE Nifty closed below the 6,280 mark, while the BSE Sensex closed below the 20,900 level.

Index Latest 1 D Chg(%) YTD(%) NSE Index (08 Nov 2010) 6273.20 -0.62 20.61 Sensex (08 Nov 2010) 20852.38 -0.73 19.40 Dow Jones Ind. .. (08 Nov 2010) 11406.84 -0.33 9.39 Nasdaq Composit.. (08 Nov 2010) 2580.05 0.04 13.70 Hang Seng (08 Nov 2010) 24964.37 0.35 14.14 Straits Times (08 Nov 2010) 3300.40 1.85 13.90 FTSE 100 (08 Nov 2010) 5849.96 -0.43 8.07 CAC 40 (08 Nov 2010) 3913.70 -0.08 -0.57 Sectors Close 1D Chg(%) BSE IT 6104.55 -1.57 BSEPSU 10444.09 -1.25 OILGAS 11141.99 -0.37 Advance Decline Ratio Value(in Cr.) Exchange 0.43 725.66 SENSEX 0.67 6678.93 NIFTY

SENSEX    NIFTY Top Gainers Close 1D Gain(%) YTD(%) Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. 138.20 3.25 -5.92 Sterlite Industries (India) Lt... 186.15 2.62 -13.58 ACC Ltd. 1115.75 2.41 28.03 Top Gainers Close 1D Gain(%) YTD(%) Ambuja Cements Ltd. 163.60 7.88 56.93 Reliance Power Ltd. 172.10 4.37 10.96 Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. 138.15 3.17 -5.92 Top Losers Close 1D Loss(%) YTD(%) HDFC Bank Ltd. 2338.65 -2.24 37.54 Oil And Natural Gas Corporatio... 1348.55 -2.22 14.52 State Bank of India 3422.65 -1.92 50.81 Top Losers Close 1D Loss(%) YTD(%) Power Grid Corporation of Indi... 98.35 -3.63 -10.71 Bharat Petroleum Corporation L... 741.05 -2.81 16.60 HDFC Bank Ltd. 2335.40 -2.42 37.19

Top

Most Active Stocks by value (in Cr) BSE Close %Chg Value(in Cr.) Volume SBI 3489.55 -1.92 140.19 406437 Tata Steel 623.75 1.46 77.03 1218594 RIL 1106.95 0.46 75.40 678725 Jaiprak Asso 133.85 3.25 52.33 3833819 Tata Motors 1245.60 1.80 46.58 368531   NSE Close %Chg Value(in Cr.) Volume ICICI Bank 1273.35 -1.42 673.95 5364618 SBI 3489.95 -1.86 604.62 1752791 RIL 1105.70 0.56 568.17 5112060 Tata Steel 623.55 1.55 360.69 5703252 Tata Motors 1244.95 1.95 360.02 2846942   Strike Price Value Price %Chg    Most Active Calls by Contract Value (in Cr) NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 6400.00 685690.98 46.00 39.02 NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 6300.00 627591.89 89.75 25.24    Most Active Puts by Contract Value (in Cr) NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 6200.00 516405.16 56.50 -6.46 NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 6100.00 451296.13 34.50 -7.97    Most Active Future by Contracts Value (in Cr) SBIN ( 25 Nov 2010 ) - 132688.66 3418.95 1.69 TATAMOTORS ( 25 Nov 2010 ) - 97982.83 1270.20 -1.52     Commodities     Crude oil prices edged up on concerns about the inflationary effect of monetary easing by the central bank kept oil supported despite a bounce by the dollar. Gold prices also rose as safe-haven buying prompted by renewed budget problems in Ireland more than offset a sharp dollar bounce.         International News     Bank lending in Japan declined 2% on year in October, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday, following a 1.8% annual contraction in September. Including trusts, bank lending in Japan was down an annual 1.9% after shedding 1.8% on year in the previous month.(RTT News) Switzerland's jobless rate remained unchanged at 3.5% in October in line with economists' expectations. At the same time, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.6% from 3.7% in September. (RTT News) Retail sales activity in the UK increased in October, but at a slower pace than the year before. UK retail sales values were up 0.8% compared to the year before on a like-for-like basis. (RTT News)         Domestic News     State-run oil marketers have raised petrol prices by approximately 31-33 paise a litre, the fourth time since the government lifted control on pricing of the motor fuel on June 25. Hindustan Petroleum revised its pump price by 31 paise on Monday and flagship refiner-marketer Indian Oil Corporation will do so from midnight, while Bharat Petroleum will follow suit on Tuesday. (Economic Times) SBI reported a marginal rise in quarterly profit, but lagged estimates as lower treasury gains offset a pickup in credit demand in a fast-growing economy. State Bank posted a net profit of 25.01 billion rupees in July-September, its fiscal second quarter, versus a profit of 24.90 billion rupees a year earlier.(Economic Times) India's second biggest mobile carrier, Reliance Communications is in talks with investors for a sale of stake in its tower unit, Chairman Anil Ambani has said. (Moneycontrol)

Derivative Trading Stratagy today on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/derivative-strategy/derivative-strategy-09-Nov-2010.htm

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	08-Nov-2010	4025.77	3520.23	505.54

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	08-Nov-2010	1288.01	1759.44	-471.43

*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES. 

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report

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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381