Please Find attached Strong & Weak futures, Fii DATA, Derivatives EOD Report, Futures Span Margin etc
Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Essar Oil, Penin Land, Gitanjali, HDIL, Hind Oil Exp, JSW Steel, Nagar Fert, DCB, Bharat Forg & Nagar Const.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
Wock Pharma, Sterling Bio, Colpal, Glaxo, Hind Petro, Dabur, Divi's Lab, Hind Unilvr, Canara Bank & PFC.
Nifty is in Up Trend.
Nifty is in Up Trend.
Fii DATA
| FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| FII | 08-Apr-2009 | 3750.95 | 3177.62 | 573.33 |
| DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| DII | 08-Apr-2009 | 869.6 | 1247.82 | -378.22 |
Time To Buy Oil
NYMEX June 2010 Crude Oil Futures now quote at $ 64 per barrel, a one year forward contango of 20 per cent. This is one of the highest spreads available on crude for nearly 6 months and comes on the back of a possible cut of another 1 mn bpd of Crude production by Saudi Arabia in the coming summer. It is widely known in Western circles that a lot of excess crude is now being stored on the high seas in leased out Super Tankers. The increasing rates of contango highlight the confidence of the bulls in carrying forward unhedged physical oil inventories with a year's view. With the onset of the Summer Driving season in the US, and renewed feeling that Global Stimulus will work with a lag, it seems obvious that Crude could make a dash for 60+ levels in the short term rather than in the next year.
Large cap names like Cairn and Ongc have moved up shortly as Oil has seemingly found a bottom and bounced off. However, small cap Selan Oil is still trying to catch up. At a price of Rs 141.70 investors are unlikely to go wrong on the stock, if near term crude forecasts hold true. The corporate is expected to have ended March 2009 with Crude production at 275000 barrels. This is likely to rise up to 350,000 bbls and 500,000 bbls in 2010-2011. Thus Selan will benefit both on Volumes and Price over the next two years and be considered for investment.
Crude an Enigma
Even Warren Buffett has been bamboozled by oil. He admitted it in his latest annual report to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway -- the holding company he runs. In his own words: "I bought a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak. I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year." Specifically, he made the bulk of his purchases during the six months ending Sept. 30, 2008 -- you know, the same time in which oil prices peaked near $150 a barrel. The price of oil is now around $50 a barrel, and ConocoPhillips' stock price has tanked in lockstep with the oil freefall. Buffett clearly bought oil too early. But is it still too early for us to buy up oil stocks now?
Now may be the time
Those bullish on oil point to the inevitability of "peak oil," arguing that the time will come when we hit the peak of global oil production. From that point on, we'll be able to pump less and less oil out of the ground. In economic terms, we'll face decreasing supply. Meanwhile, bulls argue that demand will increase greatly, as China and other emerging markets fuel their economic growth with oil. On average, each person in the U.S. consumes about 25 barrels of oil a year; each person in China consumes just more than two. That's a lot of possible future demand. And all of us amateur economists know what happens when you restrict supply while simultaneously increasing demand: prices rise.
But then again ...
Um, weren't these the same arguments made when oil was at $147 a barrel? Yup. At that price, all these favorable supply and demand assumptions were baked in, and then some. The subsequent price fall highlights that we'll only make great returns if we buy at low prices. With oil prices at a third of their summer highs, oil plays are certainly tempting now. Getting in at steep discounts to the prices Buffett paid is a wonderful thing. However, when we look back in time, we see that current oil prices are four times the lows of the late 1990s.
In other words, looking at price movements by themselves just isn't that helpful. We need to estimate oil's intrinsic value.
How do we do that?
Beyond bubbles and busts, oil should sell at its marginal cost of production, plus some profit. Unfortunately, that's not easy to calculate with much precision. Some oil sources are really easy to find and extract (traditional onshore) while others are especially onerous (especially oil sands and deepwater). Then there's the Achilles' heel of oil: alternative fuels and the vehicles they power. Just as the solar cells made by First Solar and Suntech Power become more attractive when fossil fuel prices rise, high oil prices increase demand for alternatives like hybrids and hydrogen-cell cars. The development of these sorts of substitutes for the fuels brought to you by Big Oil players such as ConocoPhillips, Chevron , and ExxonMobil can act as a price ceiling for oil.
OK, so is oil a buy?
OK, so is oil a buy?
The question boils down once again to supply and demand. If peak oil is a ways off, demand slackens, and alternative energy options evolve quickly, a high oil price isn't justified. But if our oil supplies become constrained, the world greatly increases its energy lust, and alternative energy players hit snags, it's off to the races. Here's an additional data point to keep in mind. After admitting his timing error on ConocoPhillips, Buffett went on to say, "I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-$50 price." Before we dismiss his opinion because of his poor judgment on ConocoPhillips, let's remember his investment in PetroChina.
Buffett's optimism is certainly encouraging. But regardless of the supply and demand outlook, I think some exposure to oil companies makes sense as an insurance policy. When the price of oil rises, most companies suffer from higher input costs and slackening demand. An investor's best defense lies in owning stock in the oil companies that stand to benefit.
In the near term, our dependence on oil isn't going anywhere, and the general trend of rising marginal costs of production provides a cushion for oil prices. The scarier risk is not exposure to oil stocks if oil prices fall, but a lack of exposure to oil stocks, should prices skyrocket again.
Buffett's optimism is certainly encouraging. But regardless of the supply and demand outlook, I think some exposure to oil companies makes sense as an insurance policy. When the price of oil rises, most companies suffer from higher input costs and slackening demand. An investor's best defense lies in owning stock in the oil companies that stand to benefit.
In the near term, our dependence on oil isn't going anywhere, and the general trend of rising marginal costs of production provides a cushion for oil prices. The scarier risk is not exposure to oil stocks if oil prices fall, but a lack of exposure to oil stocks, should prices skyrocket again.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
