Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Market Outlook 5th Jan 2010

Strong & Weak  futures 
This is list of 10 strong stocks
Hexaware, Praj Ind, Bata India, Polaris, Hind Oil, Ispat Ind, Sterlite, Aban, Hind Zinc & BalramPur Ch. 
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks
Recltd, Indian Bank, UCO Bank, Andhra Bank, Ibrealest, Oriental Bank, Bajaj Auto, Federal Bank, Hind Petro & HDIL.
The daily trend of nifty is in Up trend 

 Gap up opening ICICI Bank @ 1115 cover 1080 sl 1127, 
Gap Down Buy Reliance Inds. @ 1070 trgt 1088 sl 1058,
 long Buy Areva T & D @ 340 trgt 353 sl 332. 

Break Out !!: Intraday calls On the Basis of Break out System  (For Cash Segment only)       
HDFCBank Buy above 2371 2380/2388/2399/2409 Stop 2345
HDFC Bank Sell Below 2330 2320/2310/2301/2291 Stop 2345

Break Out !!: Orchid Buy above 321 325/330/334/339 Stop 312
Orchid Sell Below 308 304/300/296/293 Stop 312

SBI Buy above 2753 2761/2769/2779/2789 Stop 2735
SBI Sell Below 2720 2710/2700/2690/2680 Stop 2735

Break Out !!: SesaGoa Buy above 340 343/346/349/353 Stop 335
SesaGoa Sell Below 332 328/325/321/318 Stop 335

Sterlite Buy above 196 198/200/203/205 Stop 193
Sterlite Sell Below 190 188/185/182/180 Stop 193

Break Out !!: 
Nifty Spot Buy above 6165 6180/620/6215/6230 
Nifty Spot Sell Below 6120 6105/6090/6075/6060 

  • Supp / Resis SPOT/ CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 6176.806207.25 6233.45
Support 6120.156093.95 6063.50
Sensex Resistance 20616.95 20735.18 20819.15
Support 20414.75 20330.78 20212.55

Scripts to watch on5th Jan. : ACC, Bhartiatl,  Bhel, BPCL, Bajaj-Auto, DLF, HDFCBank,  ICICIBank, IDFC,  L&T, M&M, Maruti, ONGC, Reliance, SBI, TataMotors, TataPower, Tisco,  Bajaj-Auto, DrReddy, HDFC,  SesaGoa,


   Market Outlook
 
 

Yesterday, Nifty opened gap up and faced strong resistance near 6,180 level. It snapped last four days gain and closed at 6146.35 mark due to profit booking in Banking and Realty stocks. From here, market could see a consolidation in the range of 6,080-6,225 with a strong support of 50 days moving average at 6,020. Today, Nifty is likely to open lower following negative clues from global markets. Thereafter, Nifty is likely to drift lower in morning session and could find support near 6,120-6,100 level. Resistance for Nifty now seems at 6,180-6,225 while support stand at 6,120-6,080. On upside if level of 6,180 breached decisively then we could see rise up to the mark of 6,225. On downside, the first support will be 6,120, followed by the 6,080. Volatility index, which is hovering around 15-17, is expected to shoot up to 20-21 in the coming days.

The output of six key infrastructure sectors grew 2.3% in November 2010 from a year ago, the slowest pace in the last 21 months, raising the prospects of a drop in industrial growth for the month. However, the advance tax numbers were encouraging for the third quarter, clearly reflecting the continued good showing of Indian companies. It is likely that the market will move up in line with corporate earnings growth (estimated at 18-20% annually over the next two years) in the medium- to long-term. The markets have already witnessed mid- and small-cap segments underperforming relatively against the large-cap segment in the past months. From here on, we could see buying in these segments.

Nifty is moving above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, sketched from the recent top and bottom (6,336 & 5700) and now likely to face stiff resistance at 71.4% level which stands at 6,180 level. Technical indicators like MACD, RSI are also supporting its uptrend move. MACD is showing positive divergence, crossing its signal line from the below. Further, MACD is above the zero line, would set-up for a more long-term. The RSI also looks strong at 62 with plenty of upside potential before any over-sold indications.

 
 
    Tip for the day
 
 

TECH MAHINDRA (BUY)

  • MACD is showing positive divergence.
  • Stock next resistance level seems at 760 if its break then stock could rise up to 800.
  • Stock is moving above 34 day EMA which is sign of uptrend.
CMP Buy/SellTarget Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance

744.60

BUY

752/760/770

730

700/800

VARUN INDUSTRY (BUY)

  • RSI is close to the overbought zone at the level of 68 and indicating uptrend.
  • MACD has given a buy crossover indicating an uptrend.
  • Stochastic is at 70 levels and it has given a buy crossover.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

254.05

BUY

257/262/268

248

220/275

ADVANTA (BUY)

  • RSI is showing a reversal trend after a sharp correction.
  • MACD is showing maximum divergence and uptrend has been followed by surge in volumes.
  • The stock has rebounded after undergoing a deep correction and has breached its resistance at 410 levels with good volumes indicating that it will move upwards from here.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

411.80

BUY

416/422/430

402

380/455

MANDHANA (BUY)

  • RSI is showing positive crossover supported with volume indicating further upside.
  • MACD has given a buy crossover indicating an uptrend.
  • Stochastic is moving into overbought territory showing positive crossover also indicating upside.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

312.35

BUY

316/322/328

306

285/342

 
 
    US markets
 
 US stocks ended mixed after minutes of Federal Reserve meeting showed that Federal Open Market Committee believe that the economy remains sluggish and the jobs situation too depressing for the central bank to consider halting the USD 600 billion asset purchase plan announced in November. A mix of profit taking and optimism following an unexpected increase in November factory orders also contributed to the uneven trading. Factory orders rose by 0.7% in November, while economists had expected orders to come in unchanged. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, factory orders jumped by 2.4% in November. In corporate news, Ford and General Motors posted their December US sales, which rose 6.7% and a 7.5%, respectively. Chrysler registered a surge of 16% for the month, rounding out results that surpassed expectations.  
 
    European markets
 
 European stocks finished higher with miners and oil firms contributing most as commodity prices were boosted by strong manufacturing data from China, US and Europe. In economic news, the Markit/CIPS purchasing managers index for the British manufacturing sector rose in December to 58.3, the highest reading since 1994,from 57.5 in November. Annual inflation in the euro zone rose more than expected in December, and breached the European Central Bank's 2% target for the first time in more than two years. The harmonized consumer price index rose 2.2% year-on-year in December following November's 1.9% increase. The German jobless rate remained at 7.5% for the third straight month in December, while the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed rose by 3,000 In France, the consumer confidence index slipped to a seasonally adjusted -36 in December from -33 in the previous month  
 
    Indian markets (Prev Day)
 
 Today, the domestic bourses ended the session on a weak note as the investors decided to book profit after the five straight sessions of decent gains. The market kicked off the session on a robust note, as the benchmark indices witnessed a gap up opening tracking strong global cues. Soon after the positive start, the market dipped below the neutral line and was dragged further before taking support near the 6,120 Nifty levels. Volatile movements were seen in the broader indices and post mid-session it surged in the positive terrain. But the gains didn't last long and the benchmarks were again dragged into the negative. The disappointing reading for India's Purchasing Managers'' Index for the month of December, negated the sentiment post mid-session. Further, hefty profit booking was seen in the Banking and Realty sectors, which dragged the market. The mixed start for the European bourses had limited impact on the domestic bourses. On the sectoral front, the FMCG and Oil&Gas space remained strong during the session while the banking and realty sectors plunged amidst profit booking.The Nifty lost 0.18% ending at 6,146.35 touching an intra day high of 6,181.05 and a low of 6,124.40. The Sensex too lost 0.30% ending at 20,498.72 touching an intra day high of 20,651.21 and a low of 20,449.01.


IndexLatest1 D Chg(%)YTD(%)
NSE Index (04 Jan 2011) 6146.35 -0.18 0.19
Sensex (04 Jan 2011) 20498.72 -0.30 -0.05
Dow Jones Ind. .. (04 Jan 2011) 11691.18 0.18 0.98
Nasdaq Composit.. (04 Jan 2011) 2681.25 -0.38 1.07
Hang Seng (04 Jan 2011) 23668.48 0.99 2.75
Straits Times (04 Jan 2011) 3250.29 0.45 1.89
FTSE 100 (04 Jan 2011) 6013.87 1.93 1.93
CAC 40 (04 Jan 2011) 3916.03 0.39 2.92
DAX (04 Jan 2011) 6975.35 -0.21 0.88
SectorsClose1D Chg(%)
BSE IT 6820.54 0.05
BSEPSU 9461.55 -0.58
OILGAS 10735.56 1.27
Advance Decline RatioValue(in Cr.)Index
0.67 1020.67 SENSEX
0.92 7678.55 NIFTY
   SENSEX    NIFTY
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 321.05 2.54 2.80
Reliance Industries Ltd. 1076.55 2.12 1.73
ITC Ltd. 177.45 1.78 1.69
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Suzlon Energy Ltd. 55.65 2.68 1.74
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 320.90 2.47 2.56
Reliance Industries Ltd. 1077.10 2.04 1.74
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
ICICI Bank Ltd. 1104.10 -3.45 -3.54
Bajaj Auto Ltd. 1430.55 -3.12 -7.20
State Bank of India 2733.60 -3.09 -2.76
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
ICICI Bank Ltd. 1104.05 -3.56 -3.58
Bajaj Auto Ltd. 1429.80 -3.16 -7.22
State Bank of India 2735.60 -3.07 -2.71
Top

Most Active Stocks by value (in Cr)

BSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
SBI 2820.85 -3.09 202.84 735198
Tata Steel 703.40 -1.27 126.19 1799740
RIL 1054.15 2.12 98.99 924301
Tata Motors 1306.45 -0.46 70.87 543153
ICICI Bank 1143.60 -3.45 68.66 615734
 
NSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
SBI 2822.10 -3.07 857.85 3103531
Tata Steel 704.05 -1.33 556.71 7941862
RIL 1055.60 2.04 538.37 5033831
ICICI Bank 1144.85 -3.56 465.20 4175490
InfosysTechn 3458.35 0.67 353.31 1014911
 
Strike Price Value Price %Chg
   Most Active Calls by Contract Value (in Cr)
NIFTY ( 27 Jan 2011 ) 6200.00 1196785.97 73.25 14.27
NIFTY ( 27 Jan 2011 ) 6300.00 640295.37 35.95 19.19
   Most Active Puts by Contract Value (in Cr)
NIFTY ( 27 Jan 2011 ) 6100.00 947491.83 68.75 -10.04
NIFTY ( 27 Jan 2011 ) 6200.00 686177.73 111.25 -9.93
   Most Active Future by Contracts Value (in Cr)
SBIN ( 27 Jan 2011 ) - 117701.14 2754.80 2.92
TATASTEEL ( 27 Jan 2011 ) - 106441.81 696.25 1.68
    Commodities
 
 Optimism about global economic recovery reduced demand for safe haven assets and thereby pulled gold prices down by more than 2%. Oil prices also declined as investors booked profit after it rallied to highest levels in more than 2 years.  
 
    International News
 
 
  • Brazil's Petrobras offered to buy Eni's 33.3% stake in Portuguese oil company Galp for 3.5 billion euros (USD 4.7 billion) (Economic Times)
  • Motorola broke into two entities Motorola Mobility and Motorola Solutions. Motorola's mobile unit includes handsets and set-top boxes that will continue to do business under the name Motorola Mobility, while the remaining Motorola changes its name to Motorola Solutions. It will sell police radios and barcode scanners to government and business customers. (Economic Times)
  • Spain's 2010 budget deficit was better than the government's target. In an interview with Onda Cero radio, he said the public deficit was just below 9.3% of the gross domestic product in 2010. He added that it will be lowered to the target 6% of GDP this year. (RTT News)
 
 
    Domestic News
 
 
  • Public sector lenders IDBI Bank , Oriental Bank of Commerce and Bank of India on Tuesday hiked interest rates on certain retail term deposit schemes on account of the higher interest rate scenario, in line with steps by some of their peers. (Economic Times)
  • India has no immediate plans to impose import tax on edible oils, a government source has said. Some traders had expected the government to impose import tax on crude edible oils and raise duties on refined varieties. (Economic Times)
  • With reference to the news item appearing in a leading news channel & others titled "Gamesa to pick up majority stake in Suzlon Energy", Suzlon Energy Ltd has clarified to BSE that the said news reports with respect to Gamesa picking up a majority stake in the Company, are both speculative in nature and inaccurate; the Company has no clarifications to issue in this regard. (Money Control)
 
 
CurrencyExchange-Rate1D Chg(%)1M Chg(%)
EUR 59.79 0.71 % -0.03 %
GBP 69.32 -0.18 % 0.06 %
USD 44.84 0.38 % 0.07 %
FIIs ActivityRs. Cr.MTDYTD
Equity in flows 1527.80 3456.90 3456.90
Equity Out flows 1100.20 2412.60 2412.60
Net 427.60 1044.30 1044.30