NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 4189.45-4191.45 zone. Rallies up to 4277.30 can be used to sell. SL at 4341.15 level.
POSITIONAL TRADERS >>>>>>>>>>>>>
CARRY OLD SHORTS COVER 50% TCS SHORT,COVER RCAP SHORTS ONCE.PUT TCS AND RELCAP SHORTS MONEY IN ITC,RCOM SHORTS.
ALSO,SHORT RPL IF TRADES BELOW 154,TGT 150,147
Positional SHORT NIFTY NEAR 4300- 4330,SHORT AGAIN SBI,ICICI,ITC
SHORT RCOM TGT 385,380.
SHORT TC TGT 815,800.
CARRY OLD SHORTS,I HOPE YOU COVERED RELIANCE @TGT
Cash Market Delivery: Buy SAIL (NSE CMP 138.25) and HOLD for 1 Year. Can buy 25% now and remaining later. Not for Day-Traders.
Cash Market Intra-Day: RNRL (NSE Cash CMP 88.90) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 89.90 level.
only positional traders<>>>>>>>>>>>
BOOK PROFITS IN RCAP.IF RELCAP TRADES BELOW 1215,SHORT IT AGAIN TGT 1200,1175.
IF spot NIFTY TRADES BELOW 4210,TGT 4160,4090.CARRY ALL OTHER SHORTS/NIFTY PUTS.
POSITONAL TRADERS>>>>> PEOPLE CAN COVER 50% ICICI BANK SHORTS AND SHORT SBI,BANKINDIA WITH THAT MARGIN MONEY.
BOOK PROFITS IN RINFRA ALSO.
REST HOLD ALL OTHER SHORTS/PUTS.
intraday
NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 4253.30-4255.30 zone. Rallies up to 4298.60 can be used to sell. SL at 4341.15 level
NIFTY FUT: Sell with a Stop Loss of 4341.15 level. Target at 4285.25-4287.25 zone.
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SENSEX (Pre-Market): Higher opening expected. Expected to open high at around 100-110 points higher.
GM!!!
"It Doesn't Matter What Other People Say About You. What is Important is What You Say To Yourself."
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY 12TH SEPTEMPER
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 4318 level, expect short covering up to 4350-4352 zone by non-stop.
Support at 4294 level.
Below this level, selling may continue up to 4277 level.Do remember that, 4243-4245 zone should not be allowed to break on down side.
On Positive Side
, rallies up to 4382-4384 zone can be used to sell. Stop Loss is too far on upper side and can be placed at around 4477-4479 zone.Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term Upward Target at 4509-4511 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 4211-4213 zone.
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TATA MOTORS (NSE Cash):
Book Profits in this scrip. Technically Profit Booking expected.Hurdle at 430 level.
Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.Support at 406 level.
Should not be allowed to break at any cost.RANBAXY FUTURES (NSE):
Book Profits in this scrip. Technically selling should continue.Hurdle at 430 level.
Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.Support at 386 level.
Should not be allowed to break at any cost.--------------------
Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Future:
Great Offshore L, Indin Bank, Orient Bank, Jet Airways (ind), Apetch Training, Moser Baer(I), St. Bk. India, HCL Technologies, Bharat Petro, Yes Bank Limited.And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks ;
Sesa Goa Ltd. Gnfc Ltd. Triveni Engg. & The Ge Shpg. Ltd, Ranbaxy Labs, Chennai Petroleu, Bongaigaon R, Ndtv Ltd, Guj. Alkalies, Housing Dev & In.
Nifty is in Up Trend.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,433.71. Up by 164.79 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,249.05. Up by 17.01 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,258.22. Up by 29.52 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> was at 45.56/57 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Wednesday's close of 45.12/13.
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Book Profits in SMALLCAP Stocks
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Inflation at 12.1%, no cool off till Nov seen: Experts
Bombay-Welcoming Shorts
Suddenly nothing matters-Inflation, Indo-US Nuclear Agreement and Politics. What matters is the Exit door and FIIs have used that in unison dumping close to $ 1 bn of stock in just four sessions. And yet this is nothing. Last Friday, FIIs sold $ 25 bn of stock in a single session ramming down Moscow 8 per cent in one day and close to $ 50 bn of sales in the first eight months of 2008. Compared to that the outflows from Bombay have been a mere $ 11 bn so far, but there is another $ 250 bn to go.
All BRIC nations and parts of Eastern Europe were funded by cheap dollar and yens. Beginning with Shanghai most markets ranging up to Bucharest have lost close to 80 per cent from their peak in 2008. Bombay has done better, down 44 per cent in US Dollar terms. But a similar fate now rests for Bombay and it seems imminent. Short of an extraordinary effort, there is now nothing that can stop the FIIs from bolting the Indian Stable. The Rupee will dive closer to Rs 50, the RBI will panic, raise Interest rates even higher to save the Rupee, hold on to its FX reserves and yet net net FX flows being negative the country's cushion of FX reserves will shrink ever more.
So what should we do? Some Short Ideas-Alternate Energy & Ethanol
When you need area the size of a minor city to set up Solar farms, or hundreds of acres of land to put up wind turbines and the ultimate beneficiary of the power so generated would be a few homes, then you realise how much better it would be to short Moser Baer, Suzlon and Webel SL Energy systems.
Or for that matter millions of acres of land to grow Sugar sucks water from the Earth, to convert cane juice into Ethanol and yet an Ethanol producer will never make money unless OMCs pay ridiclulous prices for that Ethanol, and further blend it with Motor Spirits, then you realise this industry too like all other Alternate Energy plays will swing like a yo-yo. These sectors can be added to Banks, Real Estate and Construction stocks, for shorting.
"You know, you saw subprime go first, and then, on a slight lag, you saw home equity, and now in the lag, you're seeing prime go. And it's exactly the same loss factors. But remember, the components of where we are in the states… [Are] very different. And we started doing more jumbos in '07, so a lot of that is — part of that is '07 vintage, which I think I told you at the time we were going to do and grow our balance sheet and gain share. And we were wrong. You know, we, obviously, wish we hadn't done it.
"So when you adjust for all of those things — vintages, CLTV, stated income, where it's done — that's what we're seeing. You know, it's very early in the loss curves…Prime looks terrible, and we're sorry." — J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon
Eventually, though, Bombay will knuckle down
Mutual funds selling financial stocks into strength. We've finally seen a shift in psychology away from buying financials on the dips. Many managers are preparing for an extended bear market in the sector. Banks with capital shortfalls will announce secondary stock offerings. This will lower the cost of new capital, because higher stock prices allow the banks to issue fewer shares to raise a fixed amount of capital. No such issues here..we can merrilly buy any number of the out of money puts in the Options segment-limiting losses and maximising gains.
The SEC is implementing rules that will make it a bit harder to sell short stocks that are difficult to borrow. I think "naked" short selling (shorting a stock when your broker has not yet located shares to short) must be stopped. This practice gives legitimate short selling a bad name. Stock should be located and borrowed before it is sold short, not the other way around. If your broker cannot locate shares to short, you should move on to another idea, or use put options.
But the hysteria about "rumors" bringing down financial companies has gone too far, I think. This is the defense of CEOs who are looking to blame someone for their own incompetence — incompetence that put their firms in a vulnerable position in the first place.
Short sellers did not conspire to force Wall Street firms to enter the business of securitizing dodgy debts. Firms like Bear Stearns ruined their own companies with the poor strategic decisions they made. The free flow of opinions is vital for the health of the stock market. One should be very suspicious about executives who try to suppress any negative opinions about the value of their stock. Short sellers need to do their own fundamental research and form their own opinions. Only fools buy or sell short stocks based solely on rumors.
Legitimate short sellers are very beneficial for the market. They provide liquidity at market bottoms by buying to cover their positions, and they are often the first to discover and put an end to accounting frauds and stock promotion schemes that siphon capital away from legitimate businesses.
Timing is important in the banking business. Also, as in investing, it pays to be a smart contrarian. Ideally, banks should make as many loans as possible once the economy bottoms. In an improving economy, borrowers can more easily pay down debts. Loans made with disciplined underwriting guidelines ahead of an economic boom can be both safe and profitable. On the other hand, aggressively expanding a loan book at the peak of a credit cycle and an economic cycle can lead to disaster.
Once credit cycles turn, loan portfolios, or loan books, become sources of risk, rather than profit. Look at the experience of Countrywide, which just got acquired by Bank of America for a fraction of is peak value. It blew itself up by aggressively expanding its mortgage loan book at the peak of the credit cycle — which happened to coincide with the biggest housing bubble in history.
Counters in the +ve NRajTV, EKC, Asianpaints, Sterlinbio
Buy APIL-415 for 425-432 with sl 410 [Trading]
Use Strict SL for both long and short
+ve to Market
1. Asian Market 2. US Market 3. Inflation
-ve to Market
1. Profit Booking 2. Continuous FII selling. 3. Technical weakness 4. Rs.Vs$, 5. Inflation 6. Sentiment Weak
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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
