Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Market Outlook 28th July 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks, 
This is list of 10 strong stocks: 
Titan, Bharti Airtel, Sintex, Bajaj Auto, Idea, Allahabad Bank, UCO Bank, Tulip, PTC & Educomp.  
And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 
RNRL, Maruti, TV-18, Dr Reddy, ABB, Hero Honda, Essar Oil, Indian Bank, Tech Mahindra & ICSA.
The daily trend of nifty is in Uptrend 

  • Supp / Resis cash / spot levels intraday 

Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 5451.975473.33 5495.72
Support 5408.225385.83 5364.47
Sensex Resistance 18151.87 18226.12 18302.69
Support 18001.05 17924.48 17850.23

INTRADAY TRADING LEVELS IN CASH MARKET
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
ABB Ltd. NSE 809.10 841.32 787.57 873.53 766.03 895.07 733.82
Allahabad Bank NSE 186.35 188.38 183.93 190.42 181.52 192.83 179.48
Bajaj Auto Finance Ltd. NSE 547.55 555.50 536.10 563.45 524.65 574.90 516.70
Bajaj Auto Ltd. NSE 2654.15 2703.80 2566.75 2753.45 2479.35 2840.85 2429.70
Bajaj Electricals Ltd. NSE 254.65 260.63 249.68 266.62 244.72 271.58 238.73
Bajaj Hindustan Ltd. NSE 114.00 115.00 113.25 116.00 112.50 116.75 111.50
Bank of Baroda NSE 723.95 728.63 717.13 733.32 710.32 740.13 705.63
Bank of India NSE 397.35 402.98 390.88 408.62 384.42 415.08 378.78
Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1023.46 1032.31 1007.31 1041.15 991.15 1057.31 982.31
Bharti Airtel Ltd. NSE 322.65 325.65 318.40 328.65 314.15 332.90 311.15
Educomp Solutions Ltd. NSE 619.85 625.70 615.05 631.55 610.25 636.35 604.40
Hero Honda Motors Ltd. NSE 1863.00 1908.23 1811.43 1953.47 1759.87 2005.03 1714.63
ICSA-India Ltd. NSE 133.25 135.77 130.97 138.28 128.68 140.57 126.17
Idea Cellular Ltd. NSE 68.60 69.22 67.77 69.83 66.93 70.67 66.32
Indian Bank NSE 223.40 226.80 220.00 230.20 216.60 233.60 213.20
Indian Hotels Company Ltd. NSE 101.95 102.97 101.17 103.98 100.38 104.77 99.37
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. NSE 363.35 366.98 360.73 370.62 358.12 373.23 354.48
Indian Overseas Bank NSE 114.95 115.95 113.60 116.95 112.25 118.30 111.25
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. NSE 1207.50 1237.60 1179.70 1267.70 1151.90 1295.50 1121.80
NSE Index NSE 5430.60 5451.97 5408.22 5473.33 5385.83 5495.72 5364.47
Power Finance Corporation Ltd. NSE 320.25 323.63 315.73 327.02 311.22 331.53 307.83
Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. NSE 101.15 101.92 100.27 102.68 99.38 103.57 98.62
Reliance Broadcast Network Ltd. NSE 67.80 69.50 66.80 71.20 65.80 72.20 64.10
Reliance Capital Ltd. NSE 790.40 797.87 781.47 805.33 772.53 814.27 765.07
Reliance Communications Ltd. NSE 187.60 189.38 186.43 191.17 185.27 192.33 183.48
Reliance Industries Ltd. NSE 1053.50 1059.40 1049.35 1065.30 1045.20 1069.45 1039.30
Reliance Natural Resources Ltd. NSE 43.30 44.00 42.90 44.70 42.50 45.10 41.80
Reliance Power Ltd. NSE 172.35 173.57 171.27 174.78 170.18 175.87 168.97
Sintex Industries Ltd. NSE 366.45 373.30 358.30 380.15 350.15 388.30 343.30
Tech Mahindra Ltd. NSE 710.45 726.33 698.78 742.22 687.12 753.88 671.23
Titan Industries Ltd. NSE 2830.25 2888.13 2757.18 2946.02 2684.12 3019.08 2626.23
Tulip Telecom Ltd. NSE 193.25 194.97 190.37 196.68 187.48 199.57 185.77
UCO Bank NSE 91.20 92.45 89.85 93.70 88.50 95.05 87.25
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Tuesday, July 27, 2010 4:04:22 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 

  Corporate News Headline
Asian Paints's consolidated net profit has increased 26.2% to Rs. 2.22 bn in the first quarter this fiscal as against Rs. 1.76 bn in the year-ago period. Sales and operating income is up 25.3% to Rs. 18.30 bn in the reviewed period as against Rs. 14.60 bn in the year-ago period. (BS)
L&T has reported a 15.2% increase in net profit at Rs. 6.66 bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2010 as compared to Rs. 5.78 bn in the previous quarter a year ago. (BS)
JSW Steel said it has posted a growth of 26.18% in consolidated net profit to Rs. 2.96 bn for the quarter ended June 30. The company had reported a net profit of Rs. 2.34 bn in the year-ago period. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
The central bank raised interest rates more forcefully than expected on Tuesday in the face of inflation that has held stubbornly above 10% for the past five months. The RBI lifted the repo rate, at which it lends to banks, by 25 basis points to 5.75%, which was in line with expectations, but raised the reverse repo rate, at which it absorbs excess cash from the system, by a steeper than expected 50 basis points to 4.50%. (BS)
Confidence among US consumers declined in July to a five-month low, a sign the lack of jobs will limit the economy's recovery. The Conference Board's confidence index fell to 50.4 from a revised 54.3 in June, figures from the New York-based private research group showed. (Bloomberg)
Home prices in 20 US cities rose more than forecast in May from a year earlier as a government tax credit temporarily underpinned sales. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 4.6% from May 2009, the biggest year-over-year gain since August 2006, the group said in New York. (Bloomberg)
  US and European markets
Index Latest 1D Chg YTD
Nasdaq 1888.81 (0.08)% 1.53%
DJIA 10537.69 0.12% 1.05%
S&P 500 1113.84 (0.10)% (0.11)%
Most US stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declining for the first time in four days, as retailers slid after consumer confidence retreated to a five-month low. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 fell 0.08% and 0.10%, respectively, while Dow Jones added 0.12% respectively. Amazon.com Inc. and Lowe's Cos. Inc. dropped at least 1% to help lead retailers to the biggest decline among 24 S&P 500 groups. US Steel Corp., the country's largest steelmaker, declined 6.4% after reporting an unexpected second-quarter loss.
Index Latest 1D Chg YTD
FTSE 100 5365.67 0.27% (0.87)%
CAC 40 3666.40 0.83% (6.86)%
UK stocks climbed for a second day, led by a rally in banks, after the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision relaxed some of its proposed capital and liquidity rules. The FTSE 100 added 14.55 points or 0.27% at 5,365.67. Barclays Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc advanced more than 7%. AstraZeneca Plc climbed 2% after US regulators said they may clear the drugmaker's blood-thinner Brilinta. Tullow Oil Plc advanced 2.7% after completing the sale of Heritage Oil & Gas Ltd.'s Ugandan assets.

SKS Microfinance Limited (SKS) will enter the capital markets on July 28, 2010 with its initial public offer (IPO) of 16,791,579 equity shares of Rs 10 each at a price band of Rs. 850- Rs. 985 per share, with a minimum bid lot of 7 shares. Of the IPO, a total of 7,445,323 are freshly issued equity shares by the Company whereas 9,346,256 equity shares are offered for sale by the selling shareholders. The retail investors are offered a discount of Rs. 50 on the issue price.


IPO note http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/special-reports/IPO_Note_SKS_Microfinance_Ltd.htm

 

Today Market Update on 

http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/morning-brief/morning-brief-28Jul2010.htm


Valuation and recommendation:    Click here to view IPO Report. 

According to our valuation, at a price band of Rs. 850 – Rs. 985, the Company proposes a P/B multiple of 3.5x and 4.1x for FY11E at lower and upper end of the price band, respectively, which is at par to its closest listed peer, S.E. Investments Ltd. Moreover, with a comparable ROA and higher NIM of 4.93% and 13.76%, respectively, against its peer's (SE Investment) ROA and NIM of ~5% and 10.7%, respectively, we believe SKS's issue is attractively priced. Besides the Company maintains high assets quality with a Net NPA of 0.16% for FY10, thus we recommend investors to Subscribe to the issue.

 

Issue closes on August 02, 2010

Buy / Sell (Jul 27, 2010)
 Buy SellNet
FII 2460.452483.25- 22.80
DII 1551.031773.31- 222.28

*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report.
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381