Friday, September 3, 2010

Market Outlook 3rd Sep 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks:  
Apollo Tyre, Ruchi Soya, UCO Bank, BPCL , Ispat Ind, Dish TV, KFA, Indian Oil, Bhushan Steel & Tata Comm.  
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks: 
Hero Honda, Orbit Corp, KS Oils, Punj Llyod, Ivrcl Infra, Hexaware Ltd, Chennai Petro, Educomp, HDIL & Sesa Goa.
The daily trend of nifty is in Downtrend 

  • Supp / Resis SPOT/CASH INDEX LEVELS FOR INTRADAY
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 5509.455532.75 5551.55
Support 5467.355448.55 5425.25
Sensex Resistance 18324.34 18410.37 18464.90
Support 18183.78 18129.25 18043.22

SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS IN CASH/SPOT MARKET FOR INTRADAY TRADING
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
Apollo Tyres Ltd. NSE 82.35 85.88 76.73 89.42 71.12 95.03 67.58
Bank of Baroda NSE 832.50 842.88 817.63 853.27 802.77 868.13 792.38
Bank of India NSE 457.95 461.38 452.63 464.82 447.32 470.13 443.88
Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1096.11 1099.74 1092.74 1103.37 1089.37 1106.74 1085.74
Bharat Electronics Ltd. NSE 1724.65 1748.02 1693.27 1771.38 1661.88 1802.77 1638.52
Bharat Forge Ltd. NSE 359.00 362.32 355.47 365.63 351.93 369.17 348.62
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. NSE 2397.70 2430.80 2377.80 2463.90 2357.90 2483.80 2324.80
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. NSE 779.00 786.90 773.10 794.80 767.20 800.70 759.30
Bharti Airtel Ltd. NSE 334.10 339.10 331.10 344.10 328.10 347.10 323.10
Bhushan Steel Ltd. NSE 1860.65 1887.10 1832.10 1913.55 1803.55 1942.10 1777.10
Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd. NSE 244.25 247.52 240.02 250.78 235.78 255.02 232.52
Dish TV India Ltd. NSE 54.15 54.80 53.60 55.45 53.05 56.00 52.40
Educomp Solutions Ltd. NSE 549.80 555.92 545.37 562.03 540.93 566.47 534.82
Hero Honda Motors Ltd. NSE 1695.70 1752.33 1664.53 1808.97 1633.37 1840.13 1576.73
Hexaware Technologies Ltd. NSE 71.30 72.70 69.25 74.10 67.20 76.15 65.80
Hindalco Industries Ltd. NSE 173.65 175.95 171.95 178.25 170.25 179.95 167.95
Hindustan Construction Company Ltd. NSE 59.60 60.70 58.80 61.80 58.00 62.60 56.90
Hindustan Motors Ltd. NSE 24.35 24.88 24.03 25.42 23.72 25.73 23.18
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd. NSE 235.00 238.57 232.72 242.13 230.43 244.42 226.87
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. NSE 529.70 537.38 524.53 545.07 519.37 550.23 511.68
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. NSE 269.90 272.63 266.73 275.37 263.57 278.53 260.83
Hindustan Zinc Ltd. NSE 1083.50 1110.67 1065.67 1137.83 1047.83 1155.67 1020.67
Indian Bank NSE 252.35 256.08 249.53 259.82 246.72 262.63 242.98
Indian Hotels Company Ltd. NSE 104.60 105.67 103.87 106.73 103.13 107.47 102.07
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. NSE 424.30 431.77 419.92 439.23 415.53 443.62 408.07
Indian Overseas Bank NSE 134.25 137.38 128.73 140.52 123.22 146.03 120.08
Ispat Industries Ltd. NSE 20.00 20.47 19.22 20.93 18.43 21.72 17.97
IVRCL Infrastructure & Projects Ltd. NSE 155.70 159.27 153.77 162.83 151.83 164.77 148.27
K S Oils Ltd. NSE 49.00 49.83 48.33 50.67 47.67 51.33 46.83
Kingfisher Airlines Ltd. NSE 61.40 62.62 60.52 63.83 59.63 64.72 58.42
NSE Index NSE 5486.15 5509.45 5467.35 5532.75 5448.55 5551.55 5425.25
Orbit Corporation Ltd. NSE 121.80 123.40 120.70 125.00 119.60 126.10 118.00
Punj Lloyd Ltd. NSE 108.85 110.28 107.13 111.72 105.42 113.43 103.98
Punjab National Bank NSE 1212.50 1223.00 1201.00 1233.50 1189.50 1245.00 1179.00
Ruchi Soya Industries Ltd. NSE 135.55 139.50 132.60 143.45 129.65 146.40 125.70
Sesa Goa Ltd. NSE 323.15 328.53 319.73 333.92 316.32 337.33 310.93
Tata Chemicals Ltd. NSE 396.30 401.17 393.02 406.03 389.73 409.32 384.87
Tata Coffee Ltd. NSE 494.55 503.03 487.03 511.52 479.52 519.03 471.03
Tata Communications Ltd. NSE 346.90 353.08 342.03 359.27 337.17 364.13 330.98
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. NSE 844.10 860.57 834.57 877.03 825.03 886.57 808.57
Tata Motors Ltd. NSE 1016.95 1027.93 1009.98 1038.92 1003.02 1045.88 992.03
Tata Power Company Ltd. NSE 1260.75 1274.48 1239.83 1288.22 1218.92 1309.13 1205.18
Tata Steel Ltd. NSE 544.05 547.33 540.43 550.62 536.82 554.23 533.53
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. NSE 22.80 23.15 22.60 23.50 22.40 23.70 22.05
UCO Bank NSE 118.05 120.65 114.75 123.25 111.45 126.55 108.85
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Thursday, September 02, 2010 4:04:05 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 



  Corporate News Headline
SAIL raised Rs. 3 bn by selling a short- term commercial paper to State Bank of India to meet temporary cash needs. (BS)
IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd said its unit has entered into a pact with Indian Hotels Co Ltd to construct and operate a Gateway Hotel for the latter at Kolhapur in Maharashtra. (BS)
Welspun Corporation said it has bagged orders worth Rs. 7 bn from domestic and international markets. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
Making a case for freeing the sugar sector from government controls, Food and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar met the Prime Minister to apprise him about the proposed move to give freedom to mills for sale of the sweetener. At present, the government controls the sugar industry by fixing the quantity of the sweetener that mills would sell in the open market as well as through ration shops each month. (BS)
Orders placed with US factories rose less than forecast in July, restrained by a slump in demand for capital equipment that points to slower business investment in coming months. The 0.1% increase in bookings followed a revised 0.6% decline in June, figures from the Commerce Department showed in Washington. Orders for machinery and computers dropped. (Bloomberg)
The number of Americans seeking jobless benefits fell last week to a level that indicates the labor market has not improved this year even as the economy expanded. Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 472,000 in the week ended Aug. 28, Labor Department figures showed. (Bloomberg)

  US and European markets
Index Latest 1D Chg YTD
Nasdaq 1840.58 1.13% (1.06)%
DJIA 10320.10 0.49% (1.04)%
S&P 500 1090.10 0.91% (2.24)%
US stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index building on its biggest rally in almost two months, after retail sales improved, initial jobless claims fell and pending home sales unexpectedly increased. The NASDAQ, Dow Jones and S&P 500 added 1.13%, 0.49% and 0.91%, respectively. Nordstrom Inc., J.C. Penney Co. and Limited Brands Inc. advanced at least 3.2% after reporting August same-store sales that beat analyst estimates. Burger King Holdings Inc. gained 25% after affiliates of 3G Capital offered USD 4 bn for the company.
Index Latest 1D Chg YTD
FTSE 100 5371.04 0.09% (0.77)%
CAC 40 3631.43 0.21% (7.75)%
Most UK stocks advanced, extending the benchmark FTSE 100 Index's biggest rally in almost two months, after US pending home sales unexpectedly increased and jobless-benefit claims declined. The FTSE 100 added 4.63 points or 0.09% at 5,371.04. BAE Systems Plc paced advancing shares after the defense company won a US contract. Man Group Plc climbed as Numis Securities Ltd. recommended the shares. ARM Holdings Plc dropped 3.8% from an eight-year high. Lonmin Plc fell as Citigroup Inc. downgraded the mining company.

Buy / Sell (Sep 02, 2010)
 BuySell Net
FII2036.771954.46 +82.31
DII1056.741175.02 -118.28

Six Indian Stocks for Doubling your money in a year

A study carried-out by a reliable global research firm has confirmed
that global economy has bottomed out and the recovery has commenced.

Baltic Dry Index is considered as the most reliable leading indicator
of global economic activity. This index indirectly measures global
supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk
carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains.
Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw
material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods,
such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen
as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and
production. This has bottomed out at 1700 levels and is presently at
2750.

The next global economic growth cycle which has just commenced and
may run a 7-8 year cycle, has shifted its Center of Gravity. The run-
up of next three decades will be primarily driven by China, India &
Brazil. The shifting of investment capital into these regions will
surely take place, but after lot of initial resistance.  This is
because investors are seeing the wrong direction and reading wrong
indicators.

Auto sales in Asian region is surging. Confidence level of
Entrepreneurs in Asia especially India & China are surging.
Consumption is booming. Prosperity levels are on the rise. Employment
rate is rising.

If so, what are the implications? The stock markets are yet to pick up
the signal. But it is just a matter of time. Along with rising equity
markets, commodities will move up. Crude prices and coal prices will
soon commence their rally. Stock markets will pick up. But the point
being conveyed is that one should not keep an eye on Dow and Nasdaq.
Yes, they will rally but there isn't enough headroom. Sensex, Bovespa,
Hang Seng etc will lead the rally and hit new highs. The old order
will change gradually. It is time world starts tracking monsoons in
India, commodity exports from Brazil, Russia, IIP numbers of China
etc. So, when Dow touches 11000 Sensex will touch 22000.

What are the stocks to look for. Here are our six top picks:-
1. Reliance Industries
2. Larsen & Toubro
3. Mercator Lines
4. SBI
5. Pantaloon Retail
6. Mahindra & Mahindra

An investment of Rs one lakh invested in each of the stock will return
Rs 12 lakh in 12-14 months time. The midcap stock Mercator lines is
added in the portfolio to spruce up the return ratio.

Here are the reasons why we have picked the stocks. The common reasons
running through all these stocks are their able management. All these
companies are well-diversified and yet with clear visibility of steady
cash flows. All of them are in sectors which pose heavy entry barriers
and there are difficulties in starting or replicating similar
businesses. All of them reflect India growth story and will be
befitted directly or indirectly through this. All the large cap stocks
will give 50% return in a year. Mercator Lines will reward investor
very handsomely. Our immediate target is Rs 75/ - One can expect a
price of Rs 120/- in one year period and  Rs 240/- in two years. The
reasons are good cash levels, high institutional holding and
diversifications which are on the verge of pumping additional cash
into the company, exposure to commodity space - i.e coal & oil

Incidentally all of them are F&O stocks.

Three cheers to India and its investors!

buy MAJESTIC AUTO

CMP 140.60

Target 210/-

 Majestic Auto is a part of India 's well-known Hero Group of Companies. Company is supplying components like - silencers, mufflers, fine blanking components, bi-cycle spokes and electrical motors for the major automobile companies like - Hero Honda, Maruti, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Ford, Toyota & General Motors, Bosch India , Fiat and Force Motors. It supplies various types of silencers to Hero Honda Motorcycles, Startor & Rotor assembly for LG Electornics and Tecumseh.

The company is proposing expansion in the electrical and fine blanking segment in different phases with capital outlay of Rs. 50 Crores. The expansion is likely to be completed till 31st March, 2011. Current capacity for electricals and fine blanking is 22.92 lacs and 282 lacs respectively.

The auto ancillary industry as a whole is on a up tick as automobile sector is doing well with increasing demand. Most of the companies are showing robust growth and there is shortage of components. Thus current and coming years are looking better for the Majestic Auto.

Another interesting aspect of company is about its investments in Hero Honda Motor at historical value of just Rs 30 Lakhs. The present market value of same is around Rs. 300 crs, which is more then double its present market cap of Rs. 145 crs.

Even if value unlocking doesn't happen, at 50% discount of current value, they are equal to present market cap. So investors are getting core business [which is profitable and have good growth potential], totally free. In case in family restructuring they are sold to some other company, then this 145 Crs market cap company will get windfall of Rs 300 Crs, while core business will be icing on the cake.

If nothing happens on the Hero Honda sell-off front, even then stock should appreciate by at least 50% in 12 months. But if in family restructuring, investments are encashed, then windfall of Rs 300 Crs can easily lead stock price to double.

Technicals: Daily Charts not looking good. Do not expect uptrend in another 6 days.



*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report.
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381