Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Market Outlook 8th Sep 2009

INTRADAY calls for 08th Sep 2009
+ve sector, scripts : Bank, KLGsystel, SPARC[sun pharma adv]
BUY IDFC-147 for 150-151+ with sl 145
BUY SOBHA-252 for 270-279+ with sl 248
BUY ICICIBank-788 for 807-815+ with sl 778
BUY Pateleng-447 for 460-467+ with sl 440
 
Positional
BUY Welguj-254 for 300+ with sl 236
BUY Tatametali-94 for 105+ with sl 91
BUY AXISBank-932 for 955-968+ with sl 922
 
NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS
RESISTANCE

4817
4859
4900
SUPPORT
4786
4767
4724
4682
4640
4599
Buy LG BALAKRISHNAN&BROS;ELGI EQUIPMENTS
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Bhushan Steel, Tata Motors, Unitech Ltd, Aban Off shore, Orchid Chem, IOC, BPCL, Rcom, Hind Petro & India Bulls Retail.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
India Cements, Power Grid, Sesa Goa Ltd, BHEL, BEL, Pirmal Health, MTNL, GTL,NTPC &  ACC Ltd.
 Nifty is in Up trend
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Rally may continue up to 4815-4817 zone for time being.

Support at 4767 & 4786 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4724-4726 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4682-4684 zone by non-stop.

Below 4640-4642 zone, expect panic up to 4599-4601 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 4857-4859 zone can take it up to 4898-4900 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 4623.80 level, it can tumble up to 4092.20 level by non-stop.
SL triggered. 3 closes above 4623.80 level, expect short covering up to 4889.60 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX:
 
 Higher opening expected. Uptrend should continue. 

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14235 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15973 level for your short positions too.

SL triggered. 3 closed above 15973 level, expect short covering up to 16842 level by non-stop.

POSITIONAL BUY:
Buy LG BALAKRISHNAN & BROTHERS (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend may continue.

Mild sell-off up to 18 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 20 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 23 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 17 level for your long positions too.
 
Buy ELGI EQUIPMENTS (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend may continue.

Mild sell-off up to 75 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 81 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 86 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 70 level for your long positions too.

SPOT LEVELS TODAY

NSE Nifty Index   4782.90 ( 2.19 %) 102.50       
  1 2 3
Resistance 4822.17 4861.43   4932.87  
Support 4711.47 4640.03 4600.77

BSE Sensex  16016.32 ( 2.09 %) 327.20     
  1 2 3
Resistance 16103.46 16190.59 16345.69
Support 15861.23 15706.13 15619.00
 FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 07-Sep-2009 3001.83 1941.21 1060.62
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 07-Sep-2009 1457.03 1307.07 149.96

Global Cues & Rupee
Markets in the U.S. were closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday.
The partially convertible rupee INR=IN closed at 48.66/67 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Friday's close of 48.90/91.
 
 Interesting findings on web:
No direction from the US, which was closed for Labour Day yesterday.

Oil,Gold & Currencies:

Crude oil traded little changed near $68 a barrel in New York on speculation that OPEC will keep output unchanged as the end of the U.S. driving season cuts gasoline demand.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, meeting in Vienna tomorrow, is unlikely to seek a further reduction in targets, Kuwait Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Al-Sabah said yesterday. Floor trading was shut yesterday for the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., marking the end of the summer vacation season.

"The widespread expectation, reinforced by comments from OPEC officials, is that we'll see no changes there," said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. "The holiday in the U.S. quieted things down a bit."

Crude oil for October traded at $68.18 a barrel, up 16 cents from the Sept. 4 close, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:35 a.m. Singapore time. Electronic trades yesterday will be booked today for settlement purposes. Oil has gained 53 percent since the start of the year.

OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world's oil, cut quotas by 4.2 million barrels a day between September and December to prevent a glut amid the global recession. Kuwait expects no further cuts in output quotas, Al-Sabah told reporters in Kuwait City yesterday.

"Prices are high enough, so there's not a strong case for OPEC to cut production," Commonwealth Bank's Moore said. At the same time, "fundamentals are not that tight that there is a case for them to increase output."

Gasoline Usage
Gasoline consumption usually ebbs through September and October, allowing U.S. refiners to complete maintenance before heating-oil demand rises. About 39.1 million Americans were expected to travel in the U.S. over the Labor Day holiday weekend, 13 percent fewer than a year earlier, according to an estimate by the AAA, the nation's largest motoring organization.

ConocoPhillips is shutting down an amine tower at its 247,000 barrel-a-day Sweeny oil refinery in Texas for maintenance works, according to a filing with state regulators. The amine tower removes hydrogen sulfide gas from hydrocarbons during the refining process.

BP Plc said last week that it was closing a gasoline-making unit for planned work at its 470,000 barrel-a-day Texas City, Texas, plant.

Global stock markets rose for a third day yesterday. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries advanced 0.9 percent, while U.S. and Canadian markets were closed for Labor Day holidays. The yen weakened against 15 of the 16 most-traded currencies.

'Macro Picture'

"The improved macroeconomic picture has probably helped build a bit of a floor to the oil price," Moore said. "If it does fall back, it will only be a relatively modest decline at this point."

Brent crude oil for October settlement rose as much as 61 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $67.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange. It was at $66.91 a barrel at 9:42 a.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $66.53 a barrel yesterday.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc's Nigerian unit said protesters besieged its Olomoro pumping station in the southern Niger River delta to press demands for a greater share in the region's oil wealth for local communities.

Demonstrations that started last week continued this morning, Tony Okonedo, a company spokesman, said yesterday. The protests concern "issues that are already receiving attention" from Shell, he said, adding that "we're in dialogue with the community."

The action hasn't disrupted oil production because the Olomoro station has been shut since June "due to the general security situation in the region," Okonedo said.

Gold futures advanced to $1,000 an ounce for the first time in more than six months as a weaker dollar and concern that inflation may accelerate boosted the metal's appeal as an alternative investment.

The contract for December delivery touched exactly $1,000 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, taking this year's rise to 13 percent. Immediate delivery metal rose to $998.25 an ounce. Gold has rallied every year since 2000.

Governments have cut interest rates and boosted spending to fight the worst recession since World War II, spurring investors to buy bullion as a hedge against potential inflation and debasement of currencies. The Dollar Index has lost 4.1 percent this year. Gold typically moves inversely to the U.S. currency.

"There's not many good options for investors to hedge against a declining dollar and rising inflation," Hwang Il Doo, head of trading with KEB Futures Co., said today from Seoul. "Gold will rise to $1,100 an ounce by the end of the year, once physical demand from China and India adds fuel to the rally."

Gold last traded at more than $1,000 on Feb. 20, the first time the metal had breached that price since March 2008. Futures then retreated to as low as $865 on April 6. The December contract added 0.2 percent to $998.20 an ounce in New York at 9:32 a.m. in Singapore. Spot gold traded at $995.85 an ounce.

The metal's advance boosted producers. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's largest gold-mining company, gained 3.6 percent to A$33.73 in Sydney trading on the Australian stock exchange. Lihir Gold Ltd., the second-largest, increased 3.7 percent and St. Barbara Ltd. jumped 3.5 percent.

Haven Investment

Gold may be cementing its status as a haven investment as governments seek to flood the financial system with cash in an effort to haul the global economy out of a recession. The record for gold futures is $1,033.90 an ounce, reached March 17, 2008.

"The reasons to own gold as an investment make sense," Sydney-based Greg Gibbs, a Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc strategist, said in advance of the metal's gain to $1,000 today. "It is a hedge against policy makers losing control of fiscal and quantitative monetary policies."

U.S. President Barack Obama has increased U.S. marketable debt to an unprecedented $6.78 trillion as he borrows to spur the world's largest economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts that the U.S. will sell about $2.9 trillion of debt in the two years ending September 2010.

'Hint of Hyperinflation'

"Money has been printed massively," said investor Jim Slater, who was deputy chairman of Galahad Gold Plc before it liquidated in 2008. "Inflation will follow fairly soon" and there may be "a hint of hyperinflation. Even a hint will be very good news for gold."

The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the dollar's value, declined for a third day today.

Gold at more than $1,000 may attract more investors seeking to take advantage of the longest advance in the metal's price in 60 years. Assets in some of the industry's largest exchange- traded funds have reached all-time highs the past few months.

The SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETF backed by the metal, reached a record 1,134.03 metric tons on June 1. The fund, which held 1,077.63 tons as of Sept. 4, has overtaken Switzerland as the world's sixth-largest gold holding.

Investors bought 222.4 tons of bullion in the second quarter, 46 percent more than a year earlier, the World Gold Council said in August. That's less than 595.9 tons in the first quarter, when investment demand exceeded usage by jewelers for the first time since at least 2004.

'Speculative Investors'

"The market has the power to move up further," said Ellison Chu, a metals manager with Standard Bank Asia Ltd., citing dollar weakness. Still, "the risk is that speculative investors could be tempted to sell out," said Chu.

Other precious metals have outperformed gold this year. Silver for immediate delivery gained 0.7 percent to $16.45 an ounce today, the highest since August 2008. It has climbed 44 percent this year.

Platinum added 0.4 percent to $1,265 an ounce, increasing its gain this year to 35 percent. Palladium, the best performing precious metal this year, was 0.3 percent lower at $293.25 an ounce. It has gained 57 percent in 2009.

"We are still skeptical that this is a sustainable rally and a comeback could be very painful," Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London, said before today's advance in gold. "Risk-averse buying is nowhere near the levels we saw last winter."

The euro traded near a one-week high against the dollar before a report forecast to show industrial production in Germany rose in July, adding to signs the recession is abating in Europe's largest economy.

The greenback was close to its lowest level in a year versus Australia's dollar on speculation Federal Reserve officials will this week signal the central bank will keep borrowing costs low, boosting demand for so-called dollar carry trades. The U.S. currency also fell for the first time in four days versus the yen after the United Nations said the U.S. currency's role in international trade should be reduced.

The German data "will be positive for growth prospects and add to the course of analysts who anticipate a reasonable recovery," said Adam Carr, a senior economist at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney. "My expectation is that the euro will appreciate."

The euro traded at $1.4346 as of 10:16 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4332 in London yesterday, when it reached $1.4362, the highest level since Sept. 1. It was at 133.27 yen from 133.39 yen. The dollar traded at 92.90 yen from 93.08 yen. The pound fetched $1.6360 from $1.6349. It as at 87.67 pence per euro from 87.68 per euro.

Australia's dollar bought 85.52 U.S. cents after touching 85.77 cents yesterday, the most since Sept. 1, 2008. The so- called Aussie slipped 0.3 percent to 79.42 yen.

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the dollar against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen, pound and franc, was at 77.957 today from 78.012 yesterday.

German's factory output rose 1.6 percent in July after a 0.1 percent drop in June, according to the median estimate of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Economy Ministry will report the figure today in Berlin.

Fed Speakers

The dollar weakened before speeches by U.S. policy makers including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher this week.

Fisher said last week the U.S. economy will probably undergo an extended period of slow growth while facing "financial headwinds" that will take years to wane, indicating the Fed may maintain its benchmark interest rate as low as zero to spur an economic recovery.

"Overall monetary support from the major economies is supporting risky and high-yield currencies," Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist in Sydney at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, wrote in a research note today. "The U.S. dollar is the most popular funding currency."

Evans will speak on "The Great Inflation Debate" in New York and Fisher will speak on "Today's Economy: New Challenges for Business" in Dallas tomorrow. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will speak in Jacksonville, Florida, and Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn will speak in Washington on Sept. 10.

In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with relatively low borrowing costs and invest in another nation with higher interest rates.

Current-Account Surplus

The yen was little changed after a government report showed Japan's current-account surplus narrowed in July as exports fell.

The surplus declined to 1.266 trillion yen ($13.6 billion) in July from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 1.45 trillion yen.

What to expect:

Today - Tuesday, 8 Sep 2009

Symb Company Event

ALLP.OB  Alliance Pharmaceutical Corp  (Tentative) Q4 2009 ALLIANCE PHARMACEUTICAL CORP Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

HWAY.O  Healthways, Inc.  (Tentative) Q3 2009 Healthways Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

AXR  Amrep Corp  (Tentative) Q1 2010 AMREP Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

BSET.O  Bassett Furniture Industries Inc  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Bassett Furniture Industries Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MSGI.OB  MSGI Security Solutions, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2009 MSGI SECURITY SOLUTIONS INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

CASY.O  Casey's General Stores, Inc.  Q1 2010 Casey's General Stores Earnings Release

CHP  C&D Technologies, Inc.  Q2 2010 C&D Technologies, Inc. Earnings Release

CHKE.O  Cherokee, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2010 Cherokee Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MZ.DE  Milacron Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Milacron Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

OSCI.F  Oscient Pharmaceuticals Corporation  (Tentative) Q1 2009 Oscient Pharmaceuticals Corporation Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

OXIS.DE  Oxis International, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 OXIS International Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

DYNT.O  Dynatronics Corp  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Dynatronics Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

FSII.O  FSI International Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 FSI International Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

FLOW.O  Flow International Corporation  Q1 2010 Flow International Earnings Release

FCEa  Forest City Enterprises, Inc.  Q2 2009 Forest City Enterprises, Inc. Earnings Release

HTMXQ.PK  Hartmarx Corporation  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Hartmarx Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

KVa  K-V Pharmaceutical Company  (Tentative) Q2 2009 KV Pharmaceutical Company Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

SSY  SunLink Health Systems Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 SunLink Health Systems, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

LKI  Lazare Kaplan International Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Lazare Kaplan International Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

FAC  First Acceptance Corporation  (Tentative) Q4 2008 First Acceptance Corporation Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MSB  Mesabi Trust  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Mesabi Trust CBI Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

NAII.O  Natural Alternatives International Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Natural Alternatives Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PBY  The Pep Boys-Manny, Moe & Jack  Q2 2009 Pep Boys Earnings Release

NLCI.O  Nobel Learning Communities Inc  Q4 2009 Nobel Learning Communities Earnings Release

SFD  Smithfield Foods, Inc.  Q1 2010 Smithfield Foods Earnings Release

AHPI.O  Allied He  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Allied Healthcare Products Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

FCEL.O  FuelCell Energy, Inc.  Q3 2009 FuelCell Energy Earnings Release

HAYZQ.PK  Hayes Lemmerz International, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Hayes Lemmerz Intl, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

BELM.PK  Bell Microproducts Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Bell Microproducts, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PVFC.O  PVF Capital Corporation  (Tentative) Q4 2009 PVF Capital Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MTMC.PK  MTM Technologies, Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2010 Micros-To-MainFrames Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

IFNY.F  Infinity Energy Resources, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Infinity Energy Resources, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MCF  Contango Oil & Gas Co  (Tentative) Q4 2009 CONTANGO OIL & GAS COMPANY Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

AMTC.O  Ameritrans Capital Corp  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Ameritrans Capital Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MIND.O  Mitcham Industries, Inc.  Q2 2010 Mitcham Industries Earnings Release

INNU.PK  Innuity, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Innuity, Inc Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

VNBCQ.PK  Vineyard National Bancorp  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Vineyard National Bancorp Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

CNU  Continucare Corporation  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Continucare Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

HDY  Hyperdynamics Corporation  (Tentative) Q4 2008 HYPERDYNAMICS CORP Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

GFCJ.PK  Guaranty Financial Corp (WI)  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Guaranty Financial Group Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PLNTQ.PK  Proliance International, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Proliance Intl. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

ELCO.PK  Elcom International, Inc.  (Tentative) Q3 2008 Elcom International Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

POLGE.OB  Polymer Group, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Polymer Group Inc Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

RYSMF.OB  Royal Standard Minerals Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2009 ROYAL STD MINERALS INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

OUJA.DE  Samaritan Pharmaceuticals, Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2009 SAMARITAN PHARMACEUTICALS Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

EPIXE.OB  EPIX Pharmaceuticals, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 EPIX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

ASTM.O  Aastrom Biosciences Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Aastrom Biosciences Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

SCLD.O  SteelCloud Inc  (Tentative) Q3 2009 SteelCloud Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

OMTL.PK  Omtool, Ltd.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Omtool, Ltd. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PSMT.O  Pricesmart Inc  (Tentative) PriceSmart, Inc. August Sales Release - ESTIMATED

WALK.PK  The Walking Company Holdings, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 The Walking Company Holdings, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

HDII.OB  Hypertension Diagnostics Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Hypertension Diagnostics Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PLKH.BE  ProLink Holdings Corp.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 PROLINK HOLDINGS CORP Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

ALOY.O  Alloy, Inc.  Q2 2009 Alloy Earnings Release

BPURa.F  Biopure Corporation  (Tentative) Q3 2009 Biopure Corporation Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

SCMR.O  Sycamore Networks, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Sycamore Networks Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

IMMR.O  Immersion Corp  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Immersion Corporation Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

SCOXQ.PK  The SCO Group, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 The SCO Group Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

AIRN.F  Airspan Networks Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2009 Airspan Networks Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

HWEG.PK  Hemiwedge Industries, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Hemiwedge Industries, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

UFEN.BE  United Fuel & Energy Corporation  (Tentative) Q2 2009 UNITED FUEL & ENERGY CORP Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

ABOQE.OB  Arbios Systems, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 ARBIOS SYS INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

ACUS.DE  Acusphere, Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2009 Acusphere Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

QSGQE.OB  QSGI Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 QSGI, Inc Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

CYKN.F  Cyberkinetics Neurotechnology Systems, Inc.  (Tentative) Q3 2008 Cyberkinetics Neurotechnology Systems, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

FMP.F  Feldman Mall Properties, Inc.  (Tentative) Q3 2008 FELDMAN MALL PROPERTIES, INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

CVBT.F  CardioVascular BioTherapeutics, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 CardioVascular BioTherapeutics, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

CBON.BE  Community Bancorp  (Tentative) Q4 2008 COMMUNITY BANCORP NEV Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

AVAV.O  AeroVironment, Inc.  Q1 2010 AeroVironment, Inc. Earnings Release

WWWW.O  Web.com Group, Inc  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Website Pros, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

GLA  Clark Holdings Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 CLARK HLDGS INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

SMVE.PK  Smart Move, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 SMART MOVE INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

NSTR.PK  Northstar Neuroscience, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 NORTHSTAR NEUROSCIENCE INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MMPQE.OB  Meruelo Maddux Properties, Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2009 MERUELO MADDUX PROPERTIES INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PTN  Palatin Technologie Inc  Q4 2009 Palatin Technologies Earnings Release

Asia:

Most Asian stocks fell, led by banks in Japan, after central bank figures showed country's lending growth slowed. Technology and commodity companies advanced as computer memory prices and metal prices rose.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's biggest publicly traded bank, sank 2.7 percent in Tokyo. Elpida Memory Inc., Japan's largest maker of dynamic random access memory, rose 2.5 percent after the benchmark price for chips climbed to the highest since August 2008. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, climbed 1.1 percent in Sydney after a metals gauge in London rose to a one-week high.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 114.33 as of 10:57 a.m. in Tokyo, with about eight stocks declining for every seven that rose. The gauge has climbed 62 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 on speculation stimulus measures worldwide will revive the global economy.

"We're currently without a major catalyst to get the market moving," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo, which manages the equivalent of $37 billion. "Valuations are no longer cheap."

Asian Markets Edge Up on M&A Fever

Hopes of more M&A activity and gains in European stocks kept Asian markets afloat early Tuesday, with most key markets in positive territory.

Gains in Japan were offset by declines in banking stocks. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group slid, pushing the broader Topix down 0.4 percent at one point, while the Nikkei 225 [JP;N225  10317.19    -3.75  (-0.04%)   ] was flat with a downside bias. JVC Kenwood was the star performer, surging over 20 percent on reports it would likely turn in a profit in July-September for the first time in three quarters.

Earnings optimism also lifted SK Energy shares in Seoul. The stock rallied more than 8 percent, helping boost the KOSPI [KR;KSPI  1615.97    7.40  (+0.46%)   ].

In Greater China, Taiwan markets took centerstage after the island's premier announced his resignation yesterday in a shock announcement over last month's deadly typhoon. The entire cabinet is now preparing to resign later in the week. The Taiwan Weighted index edged up 0.8 percent.

The Hang Seng Index opened 0.5 percent higher.

In Australia, Energy Metals shares surged, as a Chinese nuclear firm agreed to make a bid for up to 70% of the Australian uranium explorer. The S&P/ASX 200 climbed over 1 percent [AU;XJO  4507.3    52.90  (+1.19%)   ].

In south-east Asia, DBS shares slipped 0.9 percent. Media reports said India's Larsen & Toubro was in talks to buy a part of DBS's joint venture unit in the South Asian nation. The STI shed 0.6 percent, but Malaysia's KLCI rose 0.5 percent.


Nikkei 225 10,317.19     -3.75 ( - 0.04%).(07.54 AM IST)

Japan's Nikkei stock average was flat on Tuesday, buoyed by chip-related shares such as Advantest Corp (6857.T: Quote, Profile, Research), though gains were checked by falls in financials such as bank stocks.

The benchmark Nikkei .N225 gained 3.57 points to 10,324.51, while the broader Topix .TOPX lost 0.2 percent to 943.04.

NEC Corp. (6701) shares were directionless Tuesday morning, as investors appeared unimpressed by a Nikkei report the same day that the company has invested in Blade Network Technologies Inc., a U.S. manufacturer of high-speed network switches.

Shares in JVC Kenwood Holdings Inc. (6632) rebounded sharply Tuesday, surging 28.57% to hit 63 yen, as The Nikkei reported that same morning that the firm's operating profit will likely surpass its previous prediction of a 5 million yen profit for the July-September quarter. This swing back into the black marks the firm's first posted profit in three quarters.

Asian markets were slightly higher on Tuesday, helped by gains for European bourses. In Australia, gold miners were lifted as the spot gold price flirted with $1,000 per troy ounce. 


HSI 20747.74 +118.43 +0.57% (07.56 AM IST).

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index traded 0.2% higher at 20,662.23 in early action Tuesday, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises added 0.5% to 12,037.68. Shares of PetroChina Co. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:857 (HK:857 8.96, +0.09, +1.02%) were among the winners, up 1% in Hong Kong, and Jiangxi Copper Co. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:358 (HK:358 17.88, +0.18, +1.02%) adding 0.9%. But in mainland China, metals-related shares pressured the Shanghai Composite, which fell by 1.4%, with Wuhan Iron & Steel Co. losing 3.1%. 


SSE Composite  2873.35   -0.27.(07.58 AM IST).

Chinese stocks open 0.54% lower on Tue

Chinese stocks opened lower on Tuesday morning.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A shares and B shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, opened at 2,865.7 points, down 0.54% or 15.42 points from the previous closing.

The Shenzhen Component Index on the smaller Shenzhen Stock Exchange opened 0.75% or 87.2 points lower at 11,548.25 points.


Standard & Poor's downgrades Country Garden's ratings.

Compal to set up 5th notebook plant in mainland China in Q4.

China Eastern shareholders approve RMB 7-bln share sale plan.

Asia Standard International plans share consolidation.

Global economic outlook still gloomy, says UN report

The global economic outlook is still gloomy and no early recovery from the current recession can be expected, a United Nations report said on Monday.

Despite some "green shoots" of economic recovery, "the economic winter is far from over," said the Trade and Development Report 2009, released by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

"Tumbling profits in the real economy, previous overinvestment in real estate and rising unemployment will continue to constrain private consumption and investment for the foreseeable future," said the report.

According to the report, the current crisis is unprecedented in depth and breadth, with virtually no economy left unscathed. Given this background, global economy is expected to fall by more than 2.5 percent in 2009.

Global economic growth may turn positive again in 2010, but it is unlikely to exceed 1.6 percent.

UNCTAD economists expect GDP in developed nations to contract by some 4 percent in 2009, and output in the transition economies to fall by more than 6 percent.

In developing countries, growth is expected to decelerate from 5.4 percent to 1.3 percent in 2009, implying a reduction of average per capita income.

But some developing and emerging-market economies have proved less vulnerable to the current crisis, notably those in East and South Asia, whose economic growth is expected to grow by 3-4 percent during 2009.

The leading economies in East and South Asia -- in particular China and India -- have resisted recessionary forces better than others because their domestic markets play a more important, and increasingly growing, role in total demand, the report said.

Moreover, the rebound in China in the second quarter of 2009 proves the efficacy of government deficit spending if it is applied quickly and forcefully, it added.

In the report, UNCTAD cited deregulation of financial markets as the main cause of the global financial and economic crisis. It also reiterated the need for more stringent financial regulation as well as the reform of the international monetary and financial system. 

Japan's current account surplus decreases 19.4% in July

Japan's current account surplus contracted 19.4 percent year-on-year to 1,265.6 billion yen (13.61billion U.S. dollars) in July, said the finance ministry in a preliminary report on Tuesday.

It was the first shrinkage in two months, which the ministry attributed mainly to a deficit expansion in the service account.

According to the report, the deficit in the service account, including payments in transport, tourism and royalties, increased by 28.9 percent to 288.3 billion yen (3.10 billion dollars).

Meanwhile, trade surplus in goods and services posted widened by 78.1 percent to 149.0 billion yen (1.60 billion dollars).

Exports shrank for the 10th straight month, down by 37.6 percent to 4,545.6 billion yen (48.88 billion dollars) while imports logged the second-largest contraction since record began in January 1986, sinking by 41.2 percent to 4,108.3 billion yen (44.18 billion dollars), said the report.

The current account balance, the broadest gauge of trade in goods, services, tourism and investment, is calculated by determining the difference between a nation's income from foreign sources and payments on foreign obligations, excluding net capital investment.

Gold briefly hits $1,000, may move higher

Front-month contract trades above six-month high on Globex

Gold futures climbed as high as $1,000 an ounce Tuesday -- marking the first time a front-month contract has reached the psychologically key level since late February.

New Health Proposal Emerges; Obama Tries to Reclaim Debate

A leading U.S. senator seeking to forge agreement on healthcare reform will put forward a plan that includes sweeping insurance market changes and a fee on companies that will help pay to cover the uninsured, a source familiar with the proposal said Monday.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Democrat who leads a group of six senators trying to craft compromise legislation on President Barack Obama's top domestic priority, plans to discuss the proposal when the group meets Tuesday.

The source said the Baucus plan, reflecting negotiations by the group and circulated among them over the weekend, would cost less than $900 billion over 10 years.

It calls for non-profit cooperatives to compete with insurance companies but does not contain a new government-run health insurance plan—the "public option"—sought by many liberal Democrats and backed by Obama, the source said.

Fiscal, political and philosophical battles are raging over the reforms as critics question the cost during an economic crisis, insurance companies lobby hard against parts of the plan, Republicans stand fast against the Democratic president and conservative commentators warn of a socialist takeover of healthcare.

Saying "it's time to act," Obama sought to shore up support for his overhaul of the $2.5 trillion U.S. healthcare system in economically hard-hit Ohio Monday before a major address to Congress Wednesday.

"It's time to do what's right for America's working families and put aside partisanship, stop saying things that aren't true, come together as a nation, pass health insurance reform now— this year," he told a cheering crowd at a Labor Day picnic held by the AFL-CIO union coalition in Cincinnati.

With 46 million Americans without health coverage, Obama said, "A public option within that basket of insurance choices would help improve quality and bring down costs."

"I want a health insurance system that works as well for the American people as it does for the insurance industry. They should be free to make a profit. But they also have to be fair," he said.

With his poll numbers down from once-lofty heights, Obama's effort to reclaim control of the debate is seen as a key test of his leadership that could define his young presidency.

After a summer of sometimes bitter words, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Sunday that Obama will "draw some lines in the sand" in his speech Wednesday.

It was unclear whether the Baucus proposal will be enough to secure agreement on the Senate panel after the three Democrats and three Republicans, known as the "Gang of Six," struggled for months to forge a bipartisan agreement.

In recent weeks, Republican panel members Charles Grassley and Michael Enzi have voiced concerns about Obama's plans and legislation pending in the House of Representatives.

The third Republican negotiator, Olympia Snowe, has been much more supportive of the effort and the White House has reached out to her for possible compromise.

A spokesman for House Republican leader John Boehner said the Baucus plan, based on media reports, "would still include increased health insurance costs for the American people, cuts to Medicare without improvements in care, and some sort of government takeover of healthcare."

"We don't need a new backroom deal," said the spokesman, Michael Steel. "We need real, bipartisan reforms that lower costs and increase access."

Baucus said Friday he was prepared to move forward on legislation quickly in the Democratic-controlled Congress—with or without Republican support.

"I am committed to getting healthcare reform done—done soon and done right," he said in a statement.

The source said a new tax on insurance companies proposed by Baucus would raise about $6 billion a year and help pay for the reform plan.

The Senate panel had been looking at taxing some employer-provided health plans. But unions and Obama opposed that, prompting negotiators to look at the insurers fee.

Liberal Democrats have criticized the idea of non-profit cooperatives, saying they will not have enough clout to compete with big insurance companies, but the proposal could appeal to more moderate members of the party who represent rural states.

The source said the Baucus plan aimed to inject more competition into the insurance market and included transparency provisions that would make it difficult for companies to pass on the new fee to consumers. It also seeks to improve the quality of care and increase coverage of prevention and wellness programs, the source said.

The Senate Finance package, like bills passed by other panels in the Senate and House, would stop insurers from excluding people for pre-existing conditions or charging more because of health history.

It also would limit out-of-pocket expenses for patients, bar insurers from placing caps on benefits and expand the Medicaid program for the poor.

Without bipartisan agreement, Baucus will likely move a bill through his committee with just Democrats and possibly the support of Snowe, a moderate Republican from Maine, a state that backed Obama in last November's presidential election.

That also means Obama will have to unify his Democrats in the Senate, where 60 votes are needed from among the 100 members to pass controversial legislation.

Snowe's support might also help shore up backing from centrist Democrats who are wary about creating a new government healthcare program.

Snowe supports a compromise plan that would not initially include a public option but would "trigger" the creation of a government program if insurance companies failed to meet cost and quality benchmarks.


Tengzhong Wants GM's Hummer Despite Setback

Chinese machinery maker Tengzhong is still working to close a deal with General Motors to buy the U.S. automaker's Hummer brand after a regulatory setback, Chinese media reported on Monday.

GM is selling its Opel, Saab, Saturn and Hummer brands as well as closing down its 83-year-old Pontiac division as it strips back operations in the face of the sector's worst ever downturn.

China's Ministry of Commerce, which must approve the Hummer acquisition, had turned back the application because it was lacking detail, the Legal Evening News reported.

"We are still trying hard," an unnamed spokesman for Tengzhong was quoted as saying in response by China News Service.

The deal would mark the first major Chinese acquisition of a distressed U.S. auto asset during the current economic downturn.

Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery, a little-known firm based in land-locked southwest China, raised eyebrows when the deal for the premium off-road Hummer brand came to light three months ago.

It was not GM's only surprise move, however, with tiny Swedish super car maker Koenigsegg now in talks to buy Saab.

Swedish State Secretary Joran Hagglund told Reuters on Monday that Koenigsegg had presented a new plan for financing the deal.

German Economy Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said on Monday he hoped GM's board would make a clear decision on the future of Opel when it meets on Tuesday.

The German government has come out strongly in favor of Canadian auto parts group Magna's bid for Opel.

Tengzhong's bid for Hummer requires approval in China from both the commerce ministry and the National Development and Reform Commission, a powerful planning agency.

The company's lack of experience in the car industry has stirred doubts, while state media said the Chinese government would likely harbor objections to taking over a gas-guzzling SUV.

Opposition has quietened down in recent weeks after China's commerce ministry sounded a more positive note on the deal, saying Tengzhong's move was normal for a company seeking to take advantage of the global downturn.

GM and Tengzhong have said they will not disclose the financial terms of the deal. 

Bankers familiar with the situation have said Hummer could fetch about $100 million in cash in addition to other commitments -- far less than the $500 million GM had expected Hummer to bring when it went on a sale in June 2008. 
 
INVESTMENT VIEW
Indage Vintners: Where's The Champagne?

BSE 522059
 
Champagne producers agreed to pick 32% fewer grapes this year, leaving billions of grapes to rot on the ground, in a move to counter fizzling bubbly sales around the world amid the economic downturn.

The result of the slashed harvest and other reductions will be a 44% cut in the number of bottles produced this year by makers such as LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA -- the world's biggest Champagne producer.The Champagne industry's governing body, the Comité Interprofessionnel du Vin de Champagne, estimates there are more than 1.2 billion spare bottles sitting in warehouses.


It is one of the starkest signs yet of how cutbacks in consumer spending are affecting this segment of the luxury-goods market. Grape growers and bottlers of the wine in the Champagne region of France haven't significantly cut the volume of usable grapes since 1955, when a bumper harvest was reduced.


Champagne buyers "are definitely being more price oriented," said Jill Pienta, assistant manager at Randolph Wine Cellars in Chicago. She said some of her customers were switching to cheaper, non-Champagne sparkling wines, such as Pierre Delize Blanc de Blancs, priced at $8 a bottle.


Global Champagne sales are expected to drop to as low as 260 million bottles this year from a high of 339 million bottles in 2007. In 2008, as the recession set in, sales slipped to 322 million bottles, the first decline since 2000.


As a result, producers -- who have so far resisted price cuts -- have been lobbying to lower global volumes of Champagne to avoid having to unload their full cellars of unsold bottles at bargain prices. The Champagne industry's governing body, the Comité Interprofessionnel du Vin de Champagne, estimates there are more than 1.2 billion spare bottles sitting in warehouses.


But the move is controversial. The French government as recently as last year had planned to expand the farmable land in Champagne -- the only region in the world where the name can be used -- because demand was expected to grow, especially from consumers in the U.S. and U.K.


The Champagne grape harvest is set to begin in the next two weeks. Independent growers in the region supply 90% of the fruit needed for bottlers. Harvest volume is decided each year by the governing body, a committee consisting of the grape growers and the bottlers. Until now, both groups have pushed pickings as high as possible. Grapes have been left on the vine in the past only when they were of inferior quality.


The committee decided the volume of grapes that can be picked this year will be 9,700 kilograms per hectare of land, compared to 14,200 kilograms per hectare allowed last year.

Also for the first time, only 82% of the harvested grapes will be bottled this year -- the rest will age in tanks for at least another year until the drop in sales stabilizes. The reductions will produce 44% fewer bottles of the wine this year.


"We're all affected" by the crisis, says Jean-Marie Barillère, the director of Champagne resources for Moët Hennessy. "When sales fell more than 20% below our projections, we had too much stock." LVMH, which owns brands including Moët et Chandon and Veuve Clicquot, said first-half sales of its wines and Champagne fell to €458 million, a 28% decline from the period last year.


Over the past few weeks, LVMH and other producers, including Lanson, had asked for a 50% cut in the volume of the grape harvest this year. But independent growers fought back hard. The growers say they resent suffering at the hands of what they call Champagne houses' overly ambitious sales expectations.


Bottles from this year's harvest won't be popped until they have aged for at least two years. Champagne from different years can also be blended in a standard bottle of bubbly. The last few years yielded record harvests -- 405 million bottles were produced last year -- which are now coming onto the market just as demand slumps.


To move more Champagne in a tough market, some wine distributors have been making "creative offerings" to restaurants, such as offering a discounted price if a certain amount is purchased, said Tim Kopec, wine director at Veritas, a high-end Manhattan restaurant with more than 3,000 wine choices. 


"These are wines that two years ago you had trouble even getting access to them, [and] now they are giving you incentives to buy three or four cases and get discounts." He said Champagne sales this year are roughly the same as last year at his restaurant.


(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
 
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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381