Market Outlook 30th Oct 2009

INTRADAY calls for 30th Oct 2009
+ve Script & Sector : Pharma,Lupin,Cipla,Escorts
BUY Ranbaxy-391 for 422+ with sl 384
BUY BOB-512 for 525+ with sl 506
BUY Dr.reddy-1016 for 1048-53+ with sl 1005

BREAKOUT
BUY HPCL-347 for 368+ with sl 339

EXPECTED BREAKOUT
BUY GlenMark-216 above 220 for 251+ with sl 210

POSITIONAL
BUY Sunpharma-1403 for 1495-1533+ with sl 1380

 

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures: Balrampur Chini, Crompton Greaves, Dr Reddy, Polaris, Wipro, PTC, Dabur, GTL Infra, Colpal & ITC.  And this is list of 10 Weak futures: IOC, EKC, GMR Infra, RCom, RNRL, Punj Lloyd, MLL, Rel Capital, Unitech & JP Hydro.
 Nifty is in Down trend  
 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
 
Above 4789 level, expect short covering up to 4816-4818 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4844-4846 zone by non-stop.

Support at 4767-4769 zone. Below this zone, selling may continue up to 4765 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 4751 level by non-stop.

Break below 4722-4724 zone, can create panic up to 4694-4696 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 4889-4891 zone can take it up to 4917-4919 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
 
1 Week: Bearish with a SL of 4927.00. Target at 4697.80.
1 Month: Bearish with a SL of 5734.40. Target at 4661.45.

3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 6190.00. Target at 3900.00.
 
BSE SENSEX:
 
 
Sell with a SL of 16182.09. Target at 15742.13. 
Short-Term Investors:  
1 Week: Bearish with a SL of 16606.95. Target at 15720.73.
1 Month: Bearish with a SL of 18381.96. Target at 14937.03.

3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 17361.47. Target at 12425.52.

1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 15197.60. Target at 18289.88.
 

POSITIONAL BUY:
Buy TECHTRAN POLYLEN (BSE Cash & BSE Code:523455) 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 19.90. Above 23.30, it will zoom.
 

Today: May hold on gains.

1 Week: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Month: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

3 Months: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
Buy SBEC INTL (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 532102) 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 13.46. Above 18.30, it will zoom.
 

1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Month: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

3 Months: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 

 

SPOT LEVELS

	4750.55	( -1.57 %)	-75.60
		1	2	3
Resistance		4804.97	4859.38	4892.67
Support		4717.27	4683.98	4629.57

	16052.72		( -1.42 %)	-230.77
			1	2	3
Resistance			16213.26	16373.81	16483.52
Support			15943.00	15833.29	15672.74

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	29-Oct-2009	2994.99	5541.66	-2546.67

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	29-Oct-2009	2653.79	1676.73	977.06

 

Interesting findings on web:
U.S. stocks rallied, sending benchmark indexes to their biggest advance since July, after the economy returned to growth following the worst contraction in seven decades. Treasuries dropped and the dollar and yen weakened, while commodities surged.

The major averages gave the news a warm reception: The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 199.89 points, or 2.1%, to 9962.58, and the S&P 500 rose 23.48 points, or 2.3%, to 1066.11. The Nasdaq advanced 37.94 points, or 1.8%, to 2097.55.

RUSSELL580.2213.86+2.45%

TRAN3703.6563.30+1.74%

UTIL369.933.88+1.06%

S&P 100496.059.55+1.96%

S&P 400678.2314.86+2.24%

NYSE6955.31189.62+2.8%

NAS 1001711.2729.21

Stocks on Wall Street rallied sharply after the US economy showed a return to growth, giving the blue chip index its biggest one-day gain in three months.

The government's first estimate of U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter, suggesting it was emerging from the worst recession in 70 years. The quarter of growth was the first after more than a year of contraction in GDP.

The government's first estimate on third-quarter gross domestic product rose at a seasonally adjusted 3.5% annual rate in July through September. This compared with consensus predictions of a 3.2% rise.

The growth was driven by consumer spending, which rose 3.4% in the third quarter.

"The market sold off Wednesday in expectation of a lower number and today it got a positive surprise," said Karl Mills, president and chief investment officer at Jurika Mills & Keifer.

"This shows the economy is continuing to recover and heal," he said. "It's just not clear what that recovery is going to look like."

"It was a little better than expected, but you have to wonder how much of the growth was pulled from another quarter, with the stimulus driving so much of it," said Drew Kanaly, chairman and CEO at Kanaly Trust.

"As you look to quarters down the road, you have to wonder how sustainable this level of GDP is," he said. "Can the government take away all the stimulus and make that handoff to the private sector?"

"The expansion in Q3 GDP (3.5%) shows we have clearly begun to emerge from the trough," Bart van Ark, chief economist of The Conference Board, wrote in a note following the report. "But there's still a long way to go," he said, "and we still don't know enough about the sustainability of these recovery signals."

"The fourth quarter will be the Waterloo of the bears," said E. William Stone, who oversees $102 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. "We are in economic recovery both in the U.S. and globally, so you will eventually see revenue growth because you are seeing the recovery hold."

"The stock rally is not over yet," said Jeffrey Kleintop, who helps oversee about $247 billion as chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston. "The stock market can celebrate. This news is an important confidence boost, in particular to individual investors."

The return to growth also fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin to discuss lifting its benchmark interest rate from a record low range near 0 percent and further unwind other programs meant to stimulate the economy.

European Central Bank council member Axel Weber signaled the bank may start to withdraw its emergency stimulus measures next year. The Fed has already announced a phase-out of some of its programs and completed its $300 billion Treasury purchase program today. Norway and Australia have started to raise interest rates.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told a congressional committee today that the recession remains "alive and acute" for struggling homeowners and the unemployed.

"It's a tug-of-war," said Michael Binger, a Minneapolis- based fund manager at Thrivent Asset Management, which oversees about $60 billion. "We've had a stronger-than-expected GDP number and corporations are running more efficiently. But I don't see the government reversing the stimulus measures or the Fed changing language or indicating higher interest rates any time soon. The unemployment rate is still very high."

Earnings-per-share have exceeded the average analyst estimates at 81 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 that posted third-quarter results so far, which would be a record proportion for a full quarter, according to Bloomberg data going back to 1993. Still, profits have decreased 23 percent on average for the 296 companies that reported since Oct. 7.

U.S. stocks also gained after the number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance fell more than forecast to the lowest level in seven months. The number of people receiving jobless benefits declined by 148,000 to 5.8 million in the week ended Oct. 17, the lowest since March 21 and biggest weekly drop since July, Labor Department figures showed.

All 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 climbed at least 0.6 percent. Indexes of raw-material producers and energy companies rose at least 2.4 percent as oil, gold and industrial metals gained after the GDP data.

The rally in global stocks has failed to convince investors and analysts that it's time to take on more risk or dispel their concerns about U.S. economic policies and its banking system.

Only 31 percent of respondents to a poll of investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers in the U.S., Europe and Asia see investment opportunities, down from 35 percent in the previous survey in July. Almost 40 percent in the latest quarterly survey, the Bloomberg Global Poll, say they are still hunkering down. U.S. investors are even more cautious, with more than 50 percent saying they are in a defensive crouch.

The U.S. economy faces "serious bumps" ahead that are likely to slow the pace of growth, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said. The economy won't be expanding quickly enough to reduce unemployment, Stiglitz told a press conference in Beijing today. The economy will enter "a very gloomy period" of high unemployment, economist David Malpass, president of Encima Global in New York, told Bloomberg Radio.

The U.S. unemployment rate reached a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September.

"GDP numbers were good and will stimulate more investor interest in stocks," said Randy Bateman, who oversees $13 billion as chief investment officer at Huntington Asset Advisors in Columbus, Ohio. "We can't declare victory yet. Maybe it was more pronounced because of the success of cash-for-clunkers program. I believe we are not going to double dip, but maybe we'll see a lesser number in the fourth quarter."

Morgan Stanley said the global stock market rally, which resembles the bull run between 2003 and 2007, will end as government spending slows after so-called easy money boosted asset prices.

"Such echo rallies are never as big as the original one and we will see it fading away," Ruchir Sharma, 35, who oversees $25 billion in emerging-market stocks at Morgan Stanley, said in an interview in Mumbai. "The rally will end as the effects of the stimulus begin to fade and the credit bubble caused by easy money disappears."

The GDP report served as more affirmation of investors' recent bets on the recovery, which fueled a sharp advance from the 12-year lows of early March.

"We see today that the optimism about corporate earnings reports is just being confirmed in the GDP report," said Kenneth Kamen, president of Mercadien Asset Management in Hamilton, New Jersey. "We are starting to see the economy really recover and GDP picking up."

Even with the optimism inspired by the latest GDP report, other money managers said there was still reason to be cautious as the recovery might prove bumpy.

"We are in the early stages of a recovery process," said Les Satlow, portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Massachusetts. "It's a very good thing that GDP is growing quarter-on-quarter, but if this is a V-shaped recovery we are still well below the top left of the V."

"I think it obviously is showing that the monetary policy has worked, and some of the government programs -- tax credits and clunkers -- have basically pulled the economy out of recession," says Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners. But the consumer will have to assist in the second wave for growth to continue, and it hasn't been a consumer-led recovery, says Cardillo, "so the question mark is how growth will shape up in 2010."

Duessel and Cardillo both predict economic growth will likely be stronger than expected going into next year. Duessel believes this is in part because the consumer -- particularly of the wealthier variety -- has "the pent-up desire to spend." "One of the things I'd be concerned about is a large part of this is 'if we prime the pump and get consumers spending again, that's going to solve our problems,'" says Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com. "But is that really sustainable in the long term? -- simply because the consumer is highly leveraged, he's spent quite a bit, and we have demographic arguments of an aging population indicating reduced consumer spending going into the future.

"So even if you're able to do it and force the issue for the next several quarters or next several years, what are you going to do after that?" asks Roberts. "And that's something I don't think we've really addressed -- but at the same time, over the next several quarters or years this could remain workable."

In other data, weekly jobless claims were 5,000 more than expected, at 530,000, down by 1,000 from the week prior. Continuing claims were less than expected, however, at 5.79 million, down from 5.94 million and better than expectations for 5.9 million.

Government stimulus programs including the popular Cash for Clunkers auto rebates and tax credits for first-time home buyers bolstered the economy. Once the government's stimulus measures run their course, the economy could run afoul of lingering problems such as high unemployment and weak consumer spending.

"I don't think that at this point in the rebound that the economy would be self-sustainable," said Jason D. Pride, director of research at Haverford Investments in Philadelphia. "The only way to have effective sustained economic growth is to have job growth, but it tends to come later."

Analysts say the recovery is likely to be bumpy as consumers try to pay down debt and credit for small businesses remains tight.

But such concerns were pushed aside Thursday.

With 302 companies, or 60% of the S&P 500 having already reported results, profits are on track to have fallen 17.9% from a year ago, according to the latest results from Thomson Reuters.

Gains were broad based, with 29 of 30 Dow issues rising, led by Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) and Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), which reported a better-than-expected profit.

Equity gains were widespread, with big manufacturers, technology, financials, energy and the materials sectors all benefiting. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq halted a four-day rout.

Sentiment was also boosted by stronger-than-expected quarterly results from consumer product heavyweights Procter & Gamble Co (PG.N) and Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL.N).

Shares of Dow component P&G, which also raised its full-year revenue outlook, gained 4 percent to $59.54, while Colgate-Palmolive shares rose 1.6 percent to $78.94.

Caterpillar Inc., Alcoa Inc. and American Express Co. jumped at least 5.1 percent after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent pace from July through September after shrinking for four straight quarters. Motorola Inc., Procter & Gamble Co., Newmont Mining Corp. and Kellogg Co. climbed on better-than-estimated earnings.

Shares of aircraft maker Boeing Co (BA.N) rose 3.4 percent to $48.81.

Merck [MRK  31.24    -0.81  (-2.53%)   ] was the only decliner on the Dow today, down 2.3 percent.

Motorola surged 9.8 percent to $8.74. The biggest U.S. mobile-phone maker reported third-quarter profit excluding some costs of 2 cents, exceeding the average estimate for a breakeven quarter in a Bloomberg survey. Motorola cut jobs and production costs to offset slumping handset sales.

Kellogg rose 2.8 percent to $51.38. The largest U.S. maker of breakfast cereal said it had third-quarter profit of 94 cents a share. The company was forecast by analysts to earn 85 cents, based on the average estimate from a Bloomberg survey. Symantec Corp. jumped 13 percent to $17.74. The biggest maker of security software reported second-quarter profit that topped analysts' estimates after winning back customers from competitors and adding new business users.

Genworth Financial Inc. jumped 17 percent and led insurance companies 5.4 percent higher, the biggest gain among 24 S&P 500 industries. The life insurer and mortgage guarantor was raised to "buy" from "neutral" by Bank of America Corp.

MetLife Inc. gained 7.9 percent to $36.84 ahead of its earnings report. The biggest U.S. life insurer reported third- quarter operating profit of 87 cents a share after the close, beating the average analyst estimate by 1 cent. Lincoln National Corp., the bailed-out insurer, climbed 14 percent to $25.34 after its first profit in a year topped estimates.

Financial shares surged 4.3 percent for the biggest gain in the S&P 500 among 10 industries. The group of 79 banks, insurers and investment firms had slumped 7.8 percent in the four days through yesterday, compared with a 4.6 percent drop of the U.S. equity benchmark.

Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley added at least 3.7 percent each.

Dow components American Express(AXP Quote) up by 5.1%.

Newmont Mining added 3.6 percent to $43. The largest U.S. gold producer reported third-quarter profit of 79 cents a share on higher bullion prices and lower production costs. The results topped the 55-cent per-share average estimate of 17 analysts.

Exxon Mobil Corp. rose 0.2 percent to $73.96, after falling as much as 2.4 percent. The world's biggest company by market value reported third-quarter net income of 98 cents a share, 4 cents lower than the average of 15 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Demand slumped for fuels to run cars, trucks, factories and airplanes.

First Solar Inc. tumbled 17 percent to $126.47. The world's largest maker of thin-film solar power modules reported sales of $480.9 million in the third quarter, trailing the average analyst estimate by 9.3 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

iPhone maker Apple Inc (AAPL.O) rose 2.1 percent to $196.35 on Nasdaq, where Symantec Corp (SYMC.O) jumped 12.8 percent to $17.74, a day after the business software maker posted a quarterly profit that eclipsed Wall Street's forecasts.

Several brokerages raised price targets on Symantec.

Higher oil prices contributed to the energy sector's gains, with the S&P energy index .GSPE up 2.4 percent. Chevron Corp (CVX.N) gained 2.7 percent to $77.95 ahead of its quarterly results on Friday.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) edged up 0.2 percent to $73.96, but the stock spent most of the session in negative territory following the company's report of a third-quarter profit below expectations.

Reports on personal income and spending, consumer sentiment and manufacturing are all due Friday morning.

Dow component Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Duke Energy (DUK, Fortune 500), Alcatel-Lucent (ALA) and Sony (SNE) are among the corporations reporting quarterly results in the morning.

Friday is the last trading day of October: As of today's close, the Dow is up 2.6 percent for the month, the S&P is up 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq is down 1.2 percent.

The VIX, the benchmark for U.S. stock options that is known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," tumbled 11 percent to 24.76 in its steepest slide since February amid reduced demand for protection against declines in equities.

Oil,Gold & Currencies:

U.S. light crude oil for December delivery rallied $2.44 to settle at $79.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a gain of 3%.

COMEX gold for December delivery rallied $16.60 to settle at $1,047.10 an ounce.

The dollar fell versus the euro, resuming its slide after a few up days and moving closer to a 14-month low hit last week. The greenback gained versus the yen.

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar headed for a fourth monthly drop against the euro, its longest stretch since 2004, as the U.S.'s return to growth renewed optimism a global recovery will quicken, aiding demand for higher-yielding assets.

The yen was little changed against the euro, set for the biggest monthly slide since May, after a government report showed Japan's jobless rate unexpectedly dropped for a second month, reducing demand for the relative safety of the Japanese currency. Australia's dollar is rising for a record ninth month as global stocks rallied and prices climbed for commodities that comprise more than half the South Pacific nation's exports.

"The recovery is still at work and the liquidity is ample," said Tomohiro Nishida, a dealer in Tokyo at Chuo Mitsui Trust & Banking Co., a unit of Japan's seventh-largest banking group. "You can't stop money flying into higher-yielding currencies at the expense of funding currencies."

The dollar traded at $1.4832 per euro at 9:47 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4822 yesterday in New York. The yen was at 135.46 per euro from 135.51 yesterday. The greenback bought 91.32 yen from 91.41 yen.

Australia's currency bought 91.51 U.S. cents from 91.50 cents in New York yesterday and is set to gain 3.7 percent in October.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares advanced 0.8 percent today and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 1.1 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index increased 2.3 percent yesterday and crude oil for December delivery increased 3.8 percent to $79.87 a barrel.

U.S. Recovering

The dollar is poised for the longest stretch of monthly losses against the euro since 2004 as a Bloomberg News survey of economists showed that the Institute for Supply Management- Chicago Inc's business barometer probably rose to 49.0 in October from 46.1 in the previous month. The data is due today.

Adding to signs the world's largest economy is recovering, the Institute for Supply Management's factory gauge also rose to 53.0 in October from 52.6 in the previous month, according to a separate Bloomberg News survey before the release on Nov. 3. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

The Commerce Department reported yesterday U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annual pace in the third quarter, after shrinking in the previous four periods. The median forecast of 79 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for an expansion of 3.2 percent.

Japan Adds Jobs

The yen fell against 13 of the 16 most-active currencies as the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent from 5.5 percent in August. The median estimate of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for the rate to increase to 5.6 percent.

"Good data from Japan will strengthen the risk appetite that resurfaced on strong U.S. data," said Takashi Kudo, director of foreign-exchange sales in Tokyo at NTT SmartTrade Inc., a unit of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp.

Separate Japanese government figures showed the job-to- applicant ratio, a leading indicator of employment trends, improved for the first time in more than two years. The ratio rose to 0.43 last month from a record low of 0.42 in August, meaning there are 43 jobs for 100 job seekers.

Euro Versus Pound

The euro may rise for the first time in four days against the pound on speculation a German report will show retail sales rebounded in September, adding to signs the recession in the 16- nation region is over.

Retail sales in Germany, Europe's largest economy, rose 1 percent in September after a revised 2.4 percent decline in August, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The Federal Statistics Office releases the report at 8 a.m. in Weisbaden today.

"The recovery in the euro-zone economy appears to be on a solid footing," said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan's largest currency broker. "The bias is for the euro to rise."

European Central Bank council member Axel Weber yesterday signaled policy makers may start to withdraw emergency stimulus measures next year by scaling back the bank's "very long-term" loans to banks. The comments are the first to indicate the ECB is getting closer to enacting its exit strategy.

The euro traded at 89.63 pence from 89.58 pence in New York yesterday, and was set for its first monthly decline versus the pound since June.

Bonds:

Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.49% from 3.41% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

What to expect:

FRIDAY: Personal income and spending; consumer sentiment; Earnings from Chevron

Obama's review of Afghan war strategy nears end 

House takes another step on healthcare reform

JP Morgan raised concerns about Galleon in 2001: report

Lawmakers close in on extending housing support

As many as 5 million Americans infected with H1N1

Iran proposes big changes to draft atom deal: report 

U.S. envoy back in Jerusalem to pursue peace talks

Resurgent Chip, LCD Sales Boost Samsung Elec Margins

Stocks Unlikely to be Spooked on Halloween Eve

Japan Deflation Pressure Builds, Jobless Falls

Health Bill Hikes Taxes for Rich, but Could Cut Deficit

Obama's Too-Big-to-Fail Plan Attacked in Congress

China Economy Gaining Momentum, Can Meet 8% Growth Target, Li Keqiang Says

U.S. economy stabilizing, still difficulties: Geithner

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday said third quarter growth figures showed the U.S. economy was stabilizing but it was in the early phase of recovery and difficulties still lay ahead.

The U.S. government must keep reinforcing economic growth as risks of a credit crunch remain, Geithner said during a seminar at the Economic Club of Chicago.

He added that there was broad support for the overhaul of the U.S. financial regulatory system and it was on track to achieve major reforms.

Fed should lose AIG-style bailout powers: Geithner

The Federal Reserve should lose its authority to bail out big, failing financial firms like AIG and Bear Stearns under proposed reforms aimed at limiting the collateral damage from such failures, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday.

Geithner, in testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, said the Fed should keep its ability to act as an emergency lender of last resort, but only to solvent firms in times of severe stress in financial markets -- with Treasury consent.

"Any firm that puts itself in a position where it cannot survive without special assistance from the government must face the consequences of failure," Geithner said. "The proposed resolution authority would not authorize the government to provide open-bank assistance to any failing firm."

Geithner said a bill by the Financial Services Committee's chairman, Representative Barney Frank, meets the tests for key elements of a resolution authority that the Obama administration would like to see passed.

It is a "comprehensive coordinated answer to the moral hazard problem" and does not provide any implicit guarantees for financial institutions, he said.

"We cannot put taxpayers in the position of paying for the losses of large private financial institutions," Geithner said. "We must build a system in which individual firms, no matter how large or important, can fail without risking catastrophic damage to the economy."

Geithner said large failing firms should be put into a receivership managed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp that would seek to "unwind, dismantle, sell or liquidate the firm in an orderly way" where losses would be borne by shareholders and creditors of the firms.

The costs of such shutdowns would be borne by other large financial firms, imposed afterward, Geithner said. This would eliminate a standing insurance fund that creates expectations that the government would step in to protect creditors and shareholders.

Regulators also must impose tougher capital and liquidity standards on large firms that take on more risk, Geithner said, to reduce the probability of a larger firm experiencing financial distress.

But Geithner said there would not be a set list of large firms held to higher standards, adding that the government did not want to provide a false impression that such firms would be protected from failure by the government in times of stress.

Fed Raises AIG Asset Value, Reversing Possible Losses

The Federal Reserve increased its estimated value of investment portfolios acquired in the rescue of American International Group Inc., reversing potential losses to taxpayers.

The net holdings of three corporations set up by the Fed for the mortgages and securities it took on in bailing out AIG and Bear Stearns Cos. rose by $4.35 billion, or 7.1 percent, to $65.5 billion, the Fed said today in a quarterly revaluation of the assets. The Bear Stearns investments fell by $116 million to $26.3 billion, while the two AIG portfolios gained $4.46 billion to $39.2 billion, the central bank said.

The central bank has said it doesn't expect taxpayer losses on the two bailouts in part because the Fed has as long as 10 years to sell the assets. In July, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said that the former AIG securities were "under water."

Loans and interest due to the Fed on the deals totaled $65.1 billion, the Fed said today. The figures reflect values of assets as of Sept. 30.

The Fed released the valuations as part of the weekly calculation of its balance sheet, which shrank by $39.6 billion, or 1.8 percent, as banks and corporations reduced reliance on the Fed as a lending backstop. The Fed's assets fell to $2.16 trillion in the week ended yesterday, the central bank said.

Credit extended through the Term Auction Facility, which sells cash loans to commercial banks, dropped $16.2 billion to $139.2 billion. The face value of commercial paper held by the Fed under an emergency program begun in October 2008 tumbled to $14.6 billion from $35.1 billion on Oct. 21.

Lending Dropped

Discount-window lending to commercial banks dropped to $22.5 billion from $23.6 billion the previous week. Currency swaps with other central banks declined $8.71 billion to $32.9 billion.

While the Fed completed its Treasuries-purchase program today, the central bank is still buying housing debt through March as part of efforts to expand credit and revive the economy. The balance sheet may expand to $2.5 trillion next year, New York Fed President William Dudley said Oct. 5. Fed policy makers next meet Nov. 3-4 in Washington.

Mortgage securities held by the Fed declined by $2.8 billion to $774.1 billion, while Treasury-bond holdings rose by $1.08 billion to $774.6 billion. Federal agency debt purchased by the Fed rose $1.76 billion to $141.6 billion.

Planned Purchases

Policy makers said Sept. 23 they will complete the Fed's planned $1.25 trillion in purchases of mortgage securities and extended the end-date of the program to March from December. They kept the benchmark interest rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent and repeated that rates will stay low for an "extended period."

The Fed's loans to a program providing liquidity to the asset-backed commercial paper market and money-market funds stood at zero for a third week. It's one of four Fed emergency programs to show a zero balance, including two facilities that lend cash and securities to bond dealers. Another that was designed to aid money-market funds is set to expire tomorrow.

M2 money supply rose by $26.4 billion in the week ended Oct. 19, the Fed said. That left M2 growing at an annual rate of 6.9 percent for the past 52 weeks, above the target of 5 percent the Fed once set for maximum growth. The Fed no longer has a formal target.

The Fed reports two measures of the money supply each week. M1 includes all currency held by consumers and companies for spending, money held in checking accounts and travelers checks. M2, the more widely followed, adds savings and private holdings in money market mutual funds.

For the latest reporting week, M1 rose by $12 billion, and over the past 52 weeks, M1 rose 16.1 percent. The Fed no longer publishes figures for M3.

Asia:

Asian stocks advanced, paring the MSCI Asia Pacific Index's first monthly decline since February, as Japan's jobless rate unexpectedly dropped and the U.S. economy grew faster than economists expected.

Sony Corp., which makes the PlayStation game console, gained 3 percent in Tokyo. Komatsu Ltd., the world's second- biggest maker of construction equipment, advanced 3.3 percent, even after its first-half net income plunged. Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-biggest mining company, rose 4 percent in Sydney as commodity prices increased.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.1 percent to 115.97 as of 10:51 a.m. in Tokyo, paring its drop this week to 3 percent. The gauge has lost 1.7 percent in October on concern governments will start withdrawing measures enacted to revive global growth. Australia this month became the first Group of 20 nation to raise interest rates amid signs of strength in its economy.

"There's a sigh of relief," said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage $1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. "The Japan data gives credence to the breadth of the recovery, that it's not just occurring in the developing economies, and that's very important for the sustainability of it."

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1.2 percent. The unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent from 5.5 percent in August, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for the rate to increase to 5.6 percent.

U.S. Growth

South Korea's Kospi Index added 0.5 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index increased 1.3 percent, while New Zealand's NZX 50 Index gained 0.5 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.2 percent. The gauge jumped 2.3 percent yesterday, the largest advance since July 23, as the U.S. government said gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent pace from July through September. The growth, which followed four quarters of contraction, topped the median estimate of 3.2 percent in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Sony gained 3 percent to 2,790 yen on hopes the weaker yen will raise the value of sales generated overseas in local terms for Japanese companies. The yen depreciated to 91.58, compared with 90.39 against the dollar at the close of stock trading in Tokyo yesterday. Against the euro, Japan's currency weakened to 135.92 from 133.14.

"I see many positive surprises and many companies are likely to raise profit forecasts," said Juichi Wako, a senior strategist at Tokyo-based Nomura Holdings Inc. "A gradual recovery will continue in the October-December period."

Oil, Metals

Panasonic Corp., Japan's biggest maker of home appliances, added 1.9 percent to 1,278 yen. Komatsu advanced 3.3 percent to 1,803 yen.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has climbed 64 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9, outpacing gains of more than 50 percent by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index. Stocks in the MSCI index are valued at 22 times estimated earnings, compared with 17 times for the S&P and 15 times for the Stoxx 600.

Rio Tinto Group, the world's third- biggest mining company, rose 4 percent to A$63.40. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, gained 0.9 percent to A$37.48.

Raw-material producers accounted for 20 percent of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index's advance today. The London Metals Index, a measure of six metals including copper and zinc, rallied 3.5 percent, the largest advance in three weeks. Crude oil climbed 3.1 percent to $79.87 a barrel in New York yesterday.

Nintendo Co., the world's largest maker of video-game players, fell 2.4 percent to 23,470 yen after slashing its full- year net income forecast on slumping sales of its Wii console.

Net income will fall to 230 billion yen ($2.5 billion) in the year to March 2010, the company said. The projected profit, the first annual drop in six years, missed the 270 billion yen median of 23 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. 

Nikkei 225 10,015.28     +124.18 ( +1.26%). (08.06 AM IST).

HSI 21813.43 +548.44 +2.58%. (08.07 AM IST).

SSE Composite 2960.47 3000.04 3017.14 2983.93 1.34. (08.08 AM IST).

Rupee:

The partially convertible rupee INR=IN closed at 47.21/22 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than its previous close of 47.34/35.

India:

Sensex gainers were Mahindra & Mahindra (3.62%), ONGC (1.61%), Sun Pharmaceuticals (1.47%), Hindustan Unilever (0.83%) and HDFC (0.82%).

DLF (-7.33%), Reliance Communications (-7.09%), Jaiprakash Associates (-4.52%), ICICI Bank (-4.07%) and BHEL (-3.64%) ended with losses.

Market breadth was negative on the BSE with 1860 declines and 818 advances.

The Sensex tumbled 4.34% and Nifty lost 4.7% in October series.

In the telecom space, Reliance Communication plunged 38%. Idea Cellular was down 27.5% and Bharti Airtel down 25.5%. The BSE Realty Index was down 14%.

In largecaps, Grasim tanked 24.5%. Suzlon Energy was down 22% and Reliance Capital down 20.5%.

However, the FMCG Index rose 10% and Healthcare Index was up 7.8%. ITC was up 11%, Jindal Steel up 9% and HUL up 8.5%.

In the pharma space, Cipla gained 16% and Sun Pharma went up 14.5%.

Punj Lloyd declined 22% and Jaiprakash Associates was down 11% post disappointing results.

Among the broader indices, BSE Small Cap Index was down 3.7% and CNX Midcap Index down 0.25%. Aptech tumbled 33%.

A surge in inflation - it rose 1.51% in the year through 17 October 2009, higher than previous week's annual rise of 1.21% - kept investors on the defensive.

Among Sensex stocks, only 8 stocks managed to sign off on a positive note.

Nifty stocks Ranbaxy Laboratories (2.9%), BPCL (2.5%), GAIL India (1.8%) and Idea Cellular (1%) closed on a firm note.

In straight four days of hectic selling, the Sensex slid below 16,000 level during intra day today but just managed to regain the crucial level.

The key index has lost massive 758.09 points or 4.51 per cent in the past four days.

Brokers said that selling pressure gained momentum after investors off-loaded part of their holdings as inflation accelerated the most since May and exports declined by 13.8 per cent in September for the 12th month in a row.

Bank of India was the biggest loser in the banking space. The stock plunged 12.3 per cent to Rs 357. The bank today reported 51 per cent decline in its net profit at Rs 176.04 crore for the second quarter ended September 30, 2009.

Indian shares continued to fall for the fourth day in a row, and closed 1.4 percent lower in volatile trade on Thursday to their worst close in nearly 8 weeks, pulled down by weakness in world equities on concerns over global growth.

The index slipped below the 16,000 mark in early deals, for the first time since Sept. 7.

RIL Q2 net up 6% @ Rs 3,852cr

Voltas Q2 profit up 13%

Grasim Q2 net down 28%

DLF Q2 net up 11% at Rs 440cr

Exports continue decline;dip 14% in Sept

Tata Chemicals Q2 net profit at Rs 222.8

Emami Q2 net up 54%

Gas @ $4.2/unit good only for RIL:SC

India gold imports drop for sixth month

Uniform sugar price may ease shortages

ONGC Q2 net up 5% at Rs 5,090cr

Ruchi Soya Q2 net down 4%

iGate expands operations in B'lore

HDIL Q2 profit up 38%

Sterlite Q2 net up 84% at Rs 1,240 cr

Bank of India Q2 profit down 45%

SFIO begins Sesa Goa probe

Mahindra Q2 net soars; drought a concern

Cairn India July-Sept qtr net jumps 60 pct
 

investment view
Trouble In The Rice Bowl  
 

Rising rice prices and possible shortages in the world's poorest countries will hinge on what major growers India, China and Thailand do to make up for millions of tons of the staple lost to floods and droughts, officials said Thursday.

 

All eyes are on India, traditionally one of the world's top rice exporters, which may import 1.1 million tons (1 million metric tons) to 3.8 million tons (3.5 million metric tons) next year to replace production losses after a drought ravaged the country's rice bowl.

 

"Just the fact that India has significantly reduced production alone is a significant development given the tightness of supplies that we see in the world today," said Jim Guinn, vice president of USA Rice Federation.

 

"But the fact that they may actually be an importer is of even more importance," he said.

India's return to the import market is viewed as pushing up the price of benchmark Thai 100 percent Grade B rice, which this month traded at $530 per ton (metric ton), though still down from more than $1,000 at the height of last year's food crisis.

 

Guinn said other factors include whether China will export or not, and if Thailand releases its bumper stocks. China holds half the world's rice stocks and has been exporting on-and-off.

 

"The circumstances are there certainly for another panic in the marketplace," Dwight Roberts, president and CEO of U.S. Rice Producers Association, told The Associated Press at an international rice conference.

 

India may also turn to wheat, which remains relatively cheap, as a short-term solution to its lower rice production, said Jeremy Zwinger, publisher of The Rice Trader, which monitors the industry.

 

But India's shift to wheat consumption may not be enough to stop the country from importing, Roberts said. "In Asia, if you don't eat rice, you don't eat," he said. "Rice here is a religion as much as a food product."

 

The 2008 rice crisis demonstrated that the crop "is a very political commodity," Roberts said.

 

Last year's record-high price of rice and other staples led to riots in at least 30 countries, according to the World Food Program. The biggest producers, Thailand, Vietnam and India, had curbed exports to protect domestic supply. In the Philippines, people formed long lines to buy low-quality rice at subsidized prices while traders were suspected of hoarding.

 

Philippine Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap said Wednesday that any rice crisis similar to last year's would hurt developing countries like his, the world's top rice importer.

The Philippines says it has lost at least 925,000 tons (840,000 metric tons) due to recent back-to-back storms.

 

Officials had said it was unlikely more imports would be needed this year, but on Wednesday Yap refused to rule that out, saying the government will do "what we have to do to protect our people's food security."

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
  

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 29th Oct 2009

stocks that are in news today:-Ex-bonus: IOC @ 1:1-Indiabulls Power to list on Oct 30, issue price Rs 45-Puravankara defers QIP plans ((EGM had approved QIP in June, size was undecided))-Astec Lifesciences IPO opens today, closes November 4 issue of 75 lakh shares, price band Rs 77-82/share-Pantaloon Retail board meet on October 30 on biz restructuring-RPG Cables board meet on October 30 to mull amalgamation with KEC International-JBF Industries board approves FCCB / QIP issue up to Rs 300 crore-HBL Power board approves issue of 10.2 lakh shares at Rs 340 to Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius ((CMP Rs 336))-1.77 crore United Spirits QIP shares to hit market-Autoline Industries’ US subsidiary bags new orders from automakers ((will add $40 million to sales in 4 years))


INTRADAY calls for 29th Oct 2009
+ve Script & Sector : SUGAR FKONCO
BUY Mindtree-604 @ 595 for 612-626+ with sl 590
BUY TATAMotors-562 @ 545 for 555-562+ with sl 538
BUY CrompGreav-361 @ 354 for 355-362+ with sl 348
SHORT NTPC-213 for 205-202+ with sl 216
BUY Saberorgan-45 @ 43 for 49-53+ with sl 40 [Positional]

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):

Below 4808-4810 zone, selling may continue up to 4801 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 4780-4782 zone by non-stop.
Hurdles at 4837 & 4840 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 4868-4870 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4896-4898 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 4905-4907 zone. Stop Loss at 4934-4936 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4771-4773 zone can create panic up to 4742-4744 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue.


Correction:

Yesterday it should have been typed as"Sell with a SL of 4918.10. Target at 4782.20." But We typed as"Sell with a SL of 4918.10. Target at 4789.40." Error is regretted.

Short-Term Investors:

1 Week: Bearish with a SL of 4918.10. Target at 4671.20.
1 Month: Bearish with a SL of 6289.00. Target at 4620.00.
3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 5080.00. Target at 2951.00.
1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 2575.00. Target at 6201.65.

BSE SENSEX:

Sell with a SL of 16622.05. Target at 16182.09.
Correction:
Yesterday it should have been typed as"Sell with a SL of 16622.05. Target at 16182.09." But We typed as"Sell with a SL of 16613.22. Target at 16023.98." Error is regretted.

Short-Term Investors:

1 Week: Bearish with a SL of 16606.95. Target at 15720.73.
1 Month: Bearish with a SL of 18381.96. Target at 14937.03.
3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 17361.47. Target at 12425.52.
1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 15197.60. Target at 18289.88.

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Balrampur Chini, PTC, Yes Bank, Patni, Polaris, Wipro, Jindal Steel, Crompton Greaves, Dr Reddy & Asian Paints.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
GMR Infra, EKC, Punj Lloyd, Purva, RCom, TV-18, Idea, Suzlon, JP Hydro & Rel Capital.
Nifty is in Down trend

INVESTMENT BUY:
Buy LOTUS CHOCOLATE (BSE Cash & BSE Code:523475)
Buy with a Stop Loss of 31.20. Above 36.30, it will zoom.

Today: May hold on gains.

1 Week: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

3 Months: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

Buy SBEC INTL (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 532102)
Buy with a Stop Loss of 13.46. Above 15.88, it will zoom.

1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Month: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

3 Months: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	28-Oct-2009	2536.3	3259.96	-723.66

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	28-Oct-2009	2127.35	1231.12	+896.23

SPOT LEVELS

	4826.15	( -0.42 %)	-20.55
		1	2	3
Resistance		4935.00	5023.30	5076.05
Support		4793.95	4741.20	4652.90

	16283.49		( -0.43 %)	-69.91
			1	2	3
Resistance			16597.83	16842.25	16985.42
Support			16210.24	16067.07	15822.65

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 28th Oct 2009

intraday calls today

BUY WIPRO-605 @ 595 for 609-612+ with sl 590

SHORT BajajHind-211 for 206-204+ with sl 215

 

stocks that are in news today:
-Sesa Goa says not received any communication from SFIO
-Welspun India board approves fund raising up to $50 m
-Birla Cotsyn board approves ADR / GDR / FCCB issue up to $25 million
-Glenmark subsidiary Glenmark Generics launches 4 products in UK
-Sasken to acquire product portfolio of Ingenient Technologies
-GMR Energy drags Ministry of Power, REC, PFC to Delhi HC: PTI
-JK Lakshmi Cement board approves stock split from Rs 10 to Rs 5
-Lanco Infratech board approves stock split from Rs 10 to Re 1
-Kingfisher comes out of NSE F&O curb
-Ex-dividend: TCS @ Rs 2
-Board meets: Walchandnagar Industries on QIP issue

 

Strong & Weak  futures  

This is list of 10 strong futures:

Balrampur Chini, OFSS, Asian Paints, Mphasis, Dr Reddy, Yes Bank, Tcs, Polaris, Dabur & ITC.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Punj Lloyd, RCom, Idea, Unitech, Bharti Airtel, GTL Infra, TV-18, JP Hydro, Suzlon & Aban Off shore.

Nifty is in Down trend  

 

NIFTY FUTURES:

Above 4879 level, expect short covering up to 4927-4929 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4974-4976 zone
by non-stop.

Support at 4839 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 4828 level by non-stop.

Below 4779-4781 zone, expect panic up to 4731-4733 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 5053-5055 zone can take it up to 5100-5102 zone. Supply expected at around this zone
and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:

Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 5053.80 level, it can tumble up to 4622.20 level by non-stop.

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Sell with a SL of 4918.10. Target at 4789.40. 
Short-Term Investors:
 
1 Week: Bearish with a SL of 4918.10. Target at 4671.20.
1 Month: Bearish with a SL of 6289.00. Target at 4620.00.

3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 5080.00. Target at 2951.00.

1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 2575.00. Target at 6201.65.
 
BSE SENSEX:  
Sell with a SL of 16613.22. Target at 16023.98. 

Short-Term Investors:  
1 Week: Bearish with a SL of 16606.95. Target at 15720.73.
1 Month: Bearish with a SL of 18381.96. Target at 14937.03.

3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 17361.47. Target at 12425.52.

1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 15197.60. Target at 18289.88.
 

 FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	27-Oct-2009	3372.85	3921.62	-548.77

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	27-Oct-2009	2122.23	1980.67	141.56

 

SPOT LEVELS

	4846.70	( -2.50 %)	-124.20
		1	2	3
Resistance		4935.00	5023.30	5076.05
Support		4793.95	4741.20	4652.90

	16353.40		( -2.31 %)	-387.10
			1	2	3
Resistance			16597.83	16842.25	16985.42
Support			16210.24	16067.07	15822.65

INVESTMENT BUY:
Buy LOTUS CHOCOLATE (BSE Cash & BSE Code:523475) 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 26.10. Above 36.30, it will zoom.

Today: May hold on gains.

1 Week: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

3 Months: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
Buy INDO AMINES (BSE Cash & BSE Code:524648) 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 16.39. Above 17.54, it will zoom.

Today: May hold on gains.

1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

3 Months: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

 

Interesting findings on web:
The Nasdaq slumped and the Dow managed a slim gain Tuesday, as investors weighed a selloff in tech, a rally in energy and a surprise drop in consumer confidence.

Tech weakness drags on Nasdaq, but IBM share buyback saves the Dow.

Most U.S. stocks fell for a third day as stronger-than-forecast demand in a Treasury auction and an unexpected drop in consumer confidence spurred concern investors are questioning the strength of the economic recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 14.21 points, or 0.14 percent, to 9,882.17. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 3.54 points, or 0.33 percent, to 1,063.41. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC declined 25.76 points, or 1.20 percent, to 2,116.09.

RUSSELL586.99-6.69-1.13%

TRAN3704.32-69.08-1.83%

UTIL370.4-2.31-0.62%

S&P 100494.16-0.05-0.01%

S&P 400685.81-7.76-1.12%

NYSE6932.04-28.05-0.4%

NAS 1001722.46-24.29-1.39%

A better-than-expected housing market report and a strong response to the government's latest debt auction were also in the mix.

"In the last few days, the market hasn't been looking very friendly, but the overall picture hasn't changed much," said Will Hepburn, president at Hepburn Capital Management. "The upward momentum is still significant."

Hepburn said that there's still plenty of fuel to keep the advance going. He cited the improving economic and corporate news, the massive amounts of government stimulus and the trillions sitting in money-market funds in cash or low-yielding bonds.

He noted that although the S&P 500 is up 57% from the March bottom, when it hit a 12-year low, the broad average is still down 32% from its all-time high of October 2007.

The stock market has become overheated since rebounding off its March lows and is due for a correction, said David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. Rosenberg used to be the chief economist at Merrill Lynch.

The market "is overvalued by at least 20 percent," Rosenberg said on CNBC this morning. "But it comes down to what your view in corporate earnings (is) going to be. By the time you're up 60 percent from any egregiously oversold low, you've already got the earnings recovery."

Some encouraging news on the housing front: The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index rose for a fourth straight month, beating expectations. Still, homebuilders didn't get a boost amid worries about waning consumer confidence and as the first-time homebuyers' tax credit hangs in the balance.

"The Treasury auction took some wind off the stock market," said Peter Boockvar, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. "It reflects some rising risk aversion and belief the Fed will remain on hold because the economy is still looking very iffy. People are concerned about the sustainability of the economic improvement. The market might be heading for a correction phase."

Jeremy Grantham, the chief investment strategist at Boston- based Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co., said stocks will "drop painfully from current levels" in the coming year amid disappointing economic data and profits as margins shrink. The S&P 500 fell 1.2 percent to 1,066.95 yesterday, higher than Grantham's estimate for its so-called fair value at 860.

Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Bill Gross said the six-month rally in riskier assets is likely at its pinnacle, with U.S. economic growth to lag behind historical averages.

"Investors must recognize that if assets appreciate with nominal gross domestic product, a 4-5 percent return is about all they can expect even with abnormally low policy rates," Gross, a founder and co-chief investment officer of the world's biggest manager of bond funds, wrote on Pimco's Web site. "Rage, rage, against this conclusion if you wish, but the six- month rally in risk assets -- while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policy makers -- is likely at its pinnacle."

Trading got started Tuesday with a surprise drop in consumer confidence figures released by the Conference Board. The effects of a "jobless recovery" seemed to be on display: though businesses are rebuilding inventories and investing in the future, unemployment remains at record highs and consumers are afraid to splurge.

Consumer sentiment took a plunge in October, according to a Conference Board report released after the start of trading. The Consumer Confidence index fell to 47.7 in October from a revised 53.4 in September, reflecting the impact of rising joblessness and shrinking household wealth. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought the index would rise to 53.5.

The part of the index that measures how consumers rate the present economic situation fell to 20.7 in October from 23 in September. It was the lowest level since February 1983, when it stood at 17.5.

"For this recovery to have sustainability, we need to see a healthy consumer," said Keith Wirtz, chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management Inc., which oversees $18.6 billion in Cincinnati. "Any statistic that is consumer-centric will weigh on the market."

"People want to take some profits. The consumer confidence numbers weren't great," said Stephen Carl, principal and head of U.S. equity trading at The Williams Capital Group LP in New York. "We had a good run with the Dow topping around 10,000 over the last week. Many people feel the market could be overvalued."

With 230 companies, or 46%, of the S&P 500 having already reported results, profits are on track to have fallen 18.1% from a year ago, according to the latest from Thomson Reuters.

Results have largely topped forecasts, with 80% of companies beating earnings' estimates, 6% meeting expectations and 13% missing forecasts.Weakness in banks, techs, retailers and transportation stocks dragged down the Nasdaq and limited the rest of the market from moving much. Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500), Dell (DELL, Fortune 500), Amazon.com (AMZN, Fortune 500) and Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) were among the Nasdaq's biggest decliners.

A rally in heavily weighted Dow components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) and American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) kept the blue-chip measure afloat.

The dollar and commodity prices remained in focus Tuesday. But investors also looked to the economic news ahead of Thursday's highly anticipated gross domestic product report.

Energy was the strongest sector on the day, as investors reacted to a smattering of financial reports and the impact of the U.S. dollar.

European oil behemoth BP (BP) reported weaker quarterly earnings and revenue due to lower oil prices, but the results topped analysts' estimates. BP's U.S.-traded shares rose 4%.

Valero Energy (VLO, Fortune 500), the largest U.S. oil refiner, reported a bigger-than-expected quarterly loss Tuesday, with fuel demand suffering amid the sluggish economy. Shares fell 4.3%.

Nonetheless, a variety of energy stocks rallied, including Dow components Chevron and Exxon Mobil.

Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. gained the most in the S&P 500, adding 9.8 percent to $42.05. The independent oil and gas company was upgraded to "overweight" from "neutral" at JPMorgan Chase & Co. after third-quarter profit topped some analysts' estimates.

Raw commodity prices were higher as well, despite a mixed dollar. Typically a weak dollar boosts dollar-traded commodity prices and a strong dollar pressures prices.

Wal-Mart ( WMT - news - people ) managed to eke out a .1% gain while Target ( TGT - news - people ), Amazon.com ( AMZN - news - people ) and Macy's ( M - news - people ) were all down for the day.

IBM ( IBM - news - people ) rallied, then fell back some, after the tech firm said it would boost share buybacks by $5 billion.

"Buybacks are a sign of strength in corporate balance sheets," said Michael Levine, a money manager at New York-based OppenheimerFunds Inc., which oversees about $165 billion. "It's a good sign. Obviously there are exceptions, but in general, corporate cash flows and balance sheets are in good shape."

Consumer discretionary stocks took a hit from the report: Wynn Resorts, clothing retailer VF Corp. and Starbucks were among the sector's biggest decliners.

Among the biggest decliners on the Nasdaq were Chinese portal Baidu [BIDU  383.66    -49.31  (-11.39%)   ] and Apple [AAPL  197.37    -5.11  (-2.52%)   ] as investors locked in profits — and as Baidu's disappointing outlook weighed on the sector. U.S. rival Google [GOOG  548.29    -5.92  (-1.07%)   ] also declined.

American Express [AXP  35.97    1.09  (+3.13%)   ] was once again the biggest gainer on the Dow, up over 3 percent. The stock is on a tear: It's up over 70 percent from its March low. Last week, the credit-card provider beat earnings expectations, helped by cost-cutting, stabilizing consumer spending and a decline in the percentage of unpaid accounts.

After the bell today, rival Visa [V  73.99    1.21  (+1.66%)   ] also topped forecasts, raised its dividend and announced a stock-buyback plan.

In today's earnings news, TD Ameritrade and US Steel were among companies reporting earnings that beat analyst expectations.

US Steel posted a loss of $2.11 a share that was considerably less than the $2.87 that analysts expected. TD Ameritrade posted a $0.26 profit on record organic growth.

U.S.-traded shares of Honda gained nearly 5 percent after the Japanese auto maker nearly tripled its yearly profit forecast.

Ford [STI  19.19    -0.66  (-3.32%)   ] shares fell nearly 2 percent after UAW workers at its Kansas City assembly plant rejected tentative contract changes designed to bring Ford's costs in line with those at GM and Chrysler.

Alcoa Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Hewlett-Packard Co. lost at least 1.1 percent after the Conference Board's gauge of sentiment trailed estimates and its measure of employment availability slumped to a 26-year low.

Johnson Controls Inc. led a gauge of carmakers and components companies down 2.9 percent for the biggest decline among 24 industries.

The world's largest maker of auto seats reported a 16 percent drop in quarterly revenue in its structural controls unit as construction slowed and owners deferred repairs. The company said 2010 earnings will be $1.35 to $1.45 a share. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate profit of $1.51 a share on average. Johnson Controls fell 4.8 percent to $25.03.

Limited Brands Inc. led consumer discretionary stocks down 1.7 percent. The owner of the Victoria's Secret chain said it expects percentage declines in sales at store open at least one year will be "in the negative low-to-mid single digits" this month. The company had expected sales to be "roughly flat." Limited Brands slumped 8.1 percent to $17.91.

Verizon Communications Inc. added 2 percent to $29.20. The second-largest U.S. phone company was raised to "outperform" at Wells Fargo & Co., which said "wireline margins troughed in Q3 and should be a driver of upside going forward."

Volatility is also returning to the market: The CBOE volatility index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, ticked higher to near 25.

Oil,Gold & Currencies:

U.S. light crude oil for December delivery rose 87 cents to settle at $79.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $7.40 to settle at $1,035.40 an ounce.

The dollar gained versus the euro, after falling to a 14-month low last week. But the greenback fell versus the yen.

The yen gained against major counterparts on speculation the global economic recovery will slow, reducing demand for higher-yielding assets.

The euro fell to a one-week low against the Japanese currency before reports this week forecast to show German consumer prices and unemployment worsened, backing the case for the European Central Bank to keep interest rates low. Australia's dollar dropped versus the yen after a report showed inflation slowed, easing pressure on the central bank to accelerate interest-rate increases.

"As the market shifts attention to the sustainability or the strength of a recovery from a cyclical upturn, the mood of euphoria may wane," said Masahide Tanaka, senior strategist in Tokyo at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co., a unit of Japan's second- largest bank.

The yen rose to 135.47 per euro as of 11:27 a.m. in Tokyo from 135.89 in New York yesterday, after earlier reaching 135.26, the highest level since Oct. 21. Japan's currency fetched 91.43 per dollar from 91.80. The dollar traded at $1.4819 per euro from $1.4804 yesterday, when it touched $1.4770, the strongest level since Oct. 13.

Australia's currency dropped to 91.40 U.S. cents from 91.66 cents yesterday when it touched 91.22 cents, the least since Oct. 19. It was at 83.57 yen from 84.14 yen yesterday after reaching 83.39 yen, the lowest since Oct. 19.

German Prices

The jobless rate in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, probably rose to 8.3 percent in October from 8.2 percent in the previous month, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the report's release tomorrow.

The nation's consumer price index, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, fell 0.1 percent in October from a year earlier after slipping 0.5 percent in September, a separate survey showed. The Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden will release the report later today.

"We expect German CPI to remain weak," Brian Kim, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS AG, wrote in a research note yesterday. "We continue to target the euro- dollar back at $1.45 in one month as sentiment is clearly showing signs of strain."

The ECB will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 1 percent through the second quarter of 2010, a Bloomberg survey showed. The central bank next meets on Nov. 5.

Australia's consumer prices advanced 1 percent from the second quarter, when it gained 0.5 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.9 percent increase. Prices gained 1.3 percent from a year earlier.

Unsustainable Rally

"The market was going into this thinking the risks were to the upside in terms of the consensus forecasts," said Robert Rennie, currency research head in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp. "This isn't a strong enough piece of data to see the Australian dollar gain. We are in a short-term corrective phase."

The yen rose against all 16 of the most-active currencies on concern a rally in stocks and commodities can't be sustained.

The six-month run-up in shares and raw materials is probably at its peak as U.S. growth lags behind historical averages, according to Bill Gross at Newport Beach, California- based Pacific Investment Management Co.

Gross, a founder and co-chief investment officer of the world's biggest manager of bond funds, has predicted a "new normal" in the global economy that will include heightened government regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy.

"What has happened is that our 'paper asset' economy has driven not only stock prices, but all asset prices higher than the economic growth required to justify them," Gross wrote yesterday on Pimco's Web site.

Japan Retail

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 0.3 percent to 1,063.41 yesterday in New York. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.7 percent today, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares lost 0.3 percent.

Adding to signs the recovery will be slow, Japan's retail sales fell for a 13th month in September, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. Sales slid 1.4 percent from a year earlier.

The dollar fell against the Japanese currency after the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the situation, that the U.S. Treasury Department and GMAC Financial Services Inc. are talking about a third round of taxpayer support for the lender.

GMAC Support

"This development may renew worries over the health of the U.S. financial sector," Takashi Kudo, director of foreign- exchange sales at NTTSmartTrade Inc., a unit of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp., said about the GMAC report. "This could add to the argument for the Fed to keep borrowing costs low, and would likely be negative for the dollar and positive for the yen."

The infusion would range from $2.8 billion to $5.6 billion and be in the form of preferred stock that may increase the government's stake from its current 34 percent if converted to common equity, the Journal said.

The dollar reached 92.32 yen yesterday, the weakest level since Sept. 21 on speculation that Federal Reserves will change rhetoric on the duration of credit easing when policymakers meet next week.

Bonds:

Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.47% from 3.55% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

What to expect:

WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; durable-goods orders; new-home sales; weekly crude inventories; executive-compensation hearing; Earnings from ConocoPhillips, GlaxoSmithKline and General Dynamics

THURSDAY: 80th anniversary of 1929 market crash; Weekly jobless claims; first look at Q3 GDP; Larry Summers speaks in NYC; Earnings from AstraZeneca, ExxonMobil, P&G, Aetna, Kellogg, Motorola and Sprint Nextel

FRIDAY: Personal income and spending; consumer sentiment; Earnings from Chevron

Obama financial reforms advance in Congress

Karzai's brother said to be on CIA payroll: report

Senate healthcare bill draws skeptics, opponents

Pay czar says authority should not be expanded

U.S. calls for lasting military dialogue with China

Worst of Global Crisis Over: Australian Central Banker

Former AMD CEO is a Galleon Source: Sources

Intense gunfire, explosion heard in central Kabul

Biggest Banks Would Bear Bulk of Future Bailout Costs Under House Plan

Hong Kong Developers Seek Cheaper Land as Government Wants to Curb Prices

Nomura's Watanabe May Resume Dividends as Trading Drives Profit Recovery

Financial regulation fight is a "just war": Geithner

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Tuesday told a packed room of Wall Street dealers and bankers they could not look America in the eye and argue that financial regulation is fine as it is.

Geithner said the financial system was tragically fragile after experiencing the worst crisis since the 1930s, and the government must respond by adding new regulation as well as improving on current ones.

"It's a war of necessity, not a war of choice," he said at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association annual meeting in New York. "And it's a just war."

Geithner made the comments at the SIFMA event, where executives including JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon warned that overregulation could taint the financial sector's ability to aid economic growth. He said that Americans and Congress were behind the U.S.'s efforts, which will strike a balance between innovation and stability.

He also said that the financial industry is showing a strong interest in reform, overall.

"Of course, you will see people fight to preserve what will be in their short-term interests" but it's important that those efforts do not derail reform, he said.

Among reforms underway is a strategy that would make it easier for the government to seize control of institutions deemed "too big to fail" if they present risks to the financial system and the economy. The government would be able to oust managers, wipe out shareholders and restructure a firm's debt, an Obama administration official said on Monday.

JPMorgan's Dimon earlier on Tuesday reiterated his support for a resolution mechanism and systemic risk regulator that could deal with companies that become "too big to fail."

Consumer protection and financial stability are the two biggest areas targeted for major reforms that will go toward winning back confidence of investors and the American public, Geithner said. That will add to the economic stabilization and a broadening of the growth recovery already underway.

"We saw just a colossal loss of confidence ... and we need to fix that," he said.

SECOND STIMULUS PLAN?

With the economy in the early stages of recovery it is important that the government does not make the mistake of doing too little in terms of stimulus, he said. There are strong arguments for extending some government programs geared at lifting the U.S. economy out of recession, he said.

But he added that it was too early to speculate about a second stimulus package because about half of the current economic support program has yet to take effect.

"The Congress is now looking at a range of choices of whether we should extend unemployment benefits" and other "targeted" economic programs, he said.

"There's going to be a good case for extending many of those," he said, in response to a question about chances for additional economic stimulus programs.

Geithner said the financial sector and credit markets have improved dramatically but the overall picture is still "mixed". While large banks have been able to access capital needed to shore up their positions, small and regional banks continue to face challenges, he said.

Asked about the U.S. dollar, which has weakened against other major currencies this year, Geithner said it would remain the world's main reserve currency for a long time as the nation takes the right measures to support the economy.

"I think the dollar will remain the principal reserve currency for a long period of time," he said.

Fed Unlikely to Shift Thinking on Interest Rates

With America still in a defensive crouch after a crushing recession and financial meltdown, the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to soften its promise of rock bottom interest rates soon.

Nascent signs of recovery have been stacking up and financial markets will be watching next week's Fed policy-setting meeting for any hint the central bank is moving closer to withdrawing its extensive support for the economy.

But with unemployment expected to go above 10 percent and factory capacity use near post-World War Two lows, there is doubt whether the economy can stand on its own feet after generous government spending programs and tax breaks dry up.

"The difficult conditions in labor markets and the consequent implications for household incomes are important reasons for my expectation that the recovery in overall economic activity moving into next year will be restrained," Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said two weeks ago.

The Fed chopped interest rates to near zero in December. On top of that it has flooded the financial system with hundreds of billions of dollars to pull the economy out of the worst financial crisis and most painful recession in decades.

Initially, it said it anticipated exceptionally low interest rates for "some time." In March, it deepened that commitment to "an extended period" — a pledge it has repeated in every Federal Open Market Committee statement since then.

"The committee ... continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period," the policy panel said after its last meeting on Sept. 22-23.

The phrase is a critical piece of a statement that officials could dial back to prepare markets for tighter money.

However, officials are still nervous about the recovery and appear likely to conclude at their meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday that tinkering now would send a premature signal.

"If you do discuss it now, the genie's out of the bottle in terms of expectations, the market would start pricing in expectations of a sooner tightening," said former Fed economist Antulio Bomfim, now with forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers. "The hurdle is high enough for even approaching the topic in the meeting, much less making a formal decision for changing the language."

Buying Time

Indeed, a Financial Times story on Friday saying officials were considering softening the pledge fueled speculation that a rate hike was closer at hand than previously thought.

By Monday, interest-rate futures prices implied a rate increase would come in the second quarter of 2010, with borrowing costs hitting 1.25 percent by the year end, although those bets started to come off a bit Tuesday. Previously, the first hike was seen coming in the third quarter.

While shifting the language would give more flexibility to the Fed's policy-making, top brass have yet to offer any public signal that they plan to alter the rate pledge, a step they would likely take to prepare the markets for any shift.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Oct. 8 that "accommodative policies" would be warranted for an extended period, while Vice Chairman Donald Kohn reminded an audience of the commitment to "unusually low levels of interest rates" for an extended period in his Oct. 13 speech.

The language means that to heal the economy of its grave wounds, policy-makers will keep interest rates low even as an economic recovery builds, analysts said.

"This is meant to ward off the view that as soon as growth picks up, the Fed is going to tighten," said Dean Maki, a former Fed economist who is now chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital.

Weak Recovery

Both Bernanke and Kohn have said in recent weeks they expect the U.S. recovery to be tepid. A number of Fed officials have said they will be ready to pull back support for the economy when the time is right, but that just because they are talking about it doesn't mean they're about to do it.

The New York Fed last week sought to tamp down market anticipation of tightening moves by issuing a statement saying that trial runs of a tool to help the central bank raise interest rates were a test of its capacities, not a signal that a tightening was set to begin.

Also, minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed some policy-makers were sufficiently nervous about the recovery to consider expanding purchases of longer-term securities to provide an additional prop.

To be sure, softening the pledge language would give the Fed a freer hand should economic conditions brighten faster than expected. And with interest rates near zero, an increase of one or two percentage points would still keep rates in accommodative territory.

"The question is whether that flexibility is worth confusing the market," Barclay's Maki said.

In the past, the Fed has left ample room between the end of a recession and rate hikes, moving only well after unemployment had peaked.

When the last recession ended in November 2001, the first rate hike was not until June 2004 — 31 months later. In the previous recession, the Fed raised rates in February 1994, 35 months after the recession ended in March 1991.

Asia:

Most Asian stocks fell, led by technology companies as Toshiba Corp. reported a loss and Canon Inc. posted lower earnings. Automakers gained after Honda Motor Co. tripled its full-year profit forecast.

Toshiba, Japan's biggest memory chipmaker, sank 4.4 percent, while Canon, the world's largest camera maker, lost 3.9 percent. BlueScope Steel Ltd. dropped 2.9 percent in Sydney as rising Chinese steel inventories added to evidence of oversupply. Honda, Japan's second-largest carmaker, surged 3.9 percent, and Toyota Motor Corp. added 0.6 percent in Tokyo.

Two stocks declined for each one that advanced on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which lost 0.2 percent to 117.68 as of 10:27 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge has surged 67 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 amid signs stimulus measures around the world are reviving the global economy.

"The market's in a bit of a wait-and-see mode," said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage about $1.3 billion at Platypus Asset Management in Sydney. "In this stage of the recovery, valuations always looked stretched. The market is forward- looking and expecting an earnings recovery to come through."

The rally since March has driven the average price of stocks in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to 1.6 times book value, up from 1.04 times at this year's low.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 0.7 percent, while South Korea's Kospi Index fell 1.3 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.4 percent, while New Zealand's NZX 50 Index climbed 0.5 percent.

Among stocks that advanced, Astellas Pharma Inc. gained 2.4 percent in Tokyo after agreeing to pay for global rights to develop and sell an experimental drug for prostate cancer.

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 0.1 percent. The measure dropped 0.3 percent yesterday as a gauge of confidence among the country's consumers unexpectedly fell.

Nikkei 225 10,144.55     -67.91 ( - 0.66%). (08.38 AM IST)

HSI 21841.93 -327.66 -1.48% . (08.39 AM IST)

SSE Composite 3021.46 2993.73 3038.06 2988.47 -0.92. (08.39 AM IST).

Rupee:

The partially convertible rupee INR=IN ended weaker at 46.88/90 per dollar on Tuesday from a previous close of 46.645/655.
 
MARKET BUZZ:
 
(May not be useful for day-traders.)

Mcleod Russell: Tea Money
 
 
 

The meeting reinforces confidence in our view that tea prices will remain firm through FY11 with an upward bias due to i) aggravating shortage situation given fall in production, ii) demand growing faster than supply and iii) lack of a new area coming under tea plantation. We reiterate Buy with an unchanged PO of INR 250. 25% upside.

 

Key takeaways from the management interaction

 

1. New supply is difficult to come by as land availability for new tea plantations in main tea growing countries i.e. India, Kenya and Sri Lanka is limited. Even if new area comes under plantation, it will take ~5years for sizeable yields.

 

2. Surge in tea price is not only due to lower production in tea growing countries but also is a response to under investment in tea due to static tea price scenario over a decade.

 

3. Company believes tea prices can rise further 10-15% in FY11. Company has sold 38mn kg tea this year at an average rate of INR140/kg. Our estimates are based on avg. tea prices at INR134.7/kg for FY10 and a 3% rise in FY11.

 

4. Wage contracts for the company will be up for renewal in Dec 2009 but is not a concern. These are four year contracts which decide per year rise in wages. Company expects INR2 to 2.5/kg increase in wages.

 

5. Company will look at new acquisitions and debt repayment through strong free cash flows generated going ahead.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
 --

Arvind Parekh

+ 91 98432 32381