Thursday, June 4, 2009

Market Outlook 4th June 2009

Intraday Calls 04thJun 2009
+ve Sector, Scripts : FMCG, JSW steel
BUY CenturyTex-480 above 486 for a target 505 stop loss 480
BUY Jindalsteel-2278 above 2300 for a target 2360 stop loss 2280
BUY GMDC-97 for a target 102 stop loss 95
BUY ITC-203 above 206 for a target 212 stop loss 203
BUY Marico-70 above 72 for a target 79 stop loss 70
BUY GIPCL-88 above 90 for a target 100 stop loss 85 [positional]
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Wel Guj, Tech M, Aban, Voltas, Skumar Sy NF, Suzlon, Bom Dyeing, NIIT Ltd, Alok Text & IVR Prime.
And this is list of 10  Weak :
Lupin, Colpal, Glaxo, Dabur, Cipla, Sterlin Bio, Hind Uni Lvr, Dr. Reddy, Bharti Airtel & Sun Pharma. 
 Nifty is in Up Trend .

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 4519 level, expect profit booking up to 4505-4507 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4481-4483 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 4546 & 4563 levels. Above these levels, buying may continue up to 4600-4602 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4624-4626 zone by non-stop.

Cross above 4636-4638 zone, can take it up to 4661-4663 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

On Negative Side, buying should emerge at around 4468-4470 zone. Stop Loss at 4444-4446 zone.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop. 
BSE SENSEX:
Lower opening expected. Recovery should start. 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.

3 closes above 14931 level, it can zoom up to 16157 level.
 
POSITIONAL:
Sell RELIANCE INDS (NSE Cash)
 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 2302 level, then selling may continue up to 2190 level. Break below 2124 level, expect free fall too. 


If crosses 2302 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 2371 level.
 
Sell DLF (NSE Cash)  Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 413 level, then selling may continue up to 393 level. Break below 381 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 413 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 425 level.
 
Sell BHARTI AIRTEL (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 818 level, then selling may continue up to 778 level. Break below 755 level, expect free fall too.

If crosses 818 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 843 level.
 
Sell GMR INFRASTRUCTURE FUTURES (NSE)
 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 178 level, then selling may continue up to 169 level. Break below 164 level, expect free fall too. 


If crosses 178 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 183 level.
 
Sell RELIANCE PETROLEUM FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 146 level, then selling may continue up to 138 level. Break below 134 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 146 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 150 level.
 

 

FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 03-Jun-2009 3350.36 3317.56 +32.8
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 03-Jun-2009 1428.23 1375.34 +52.89
 
NIFTY SPOT LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   4530.70 ( 0.12 %) 5.45       
  1 2 3
Resistance 4577.53 4624.37   4673.83  
Support 4481.23 4431.77 4384.93

BSE Sensex  14870.90 ( -0.03 %) -4.01     
  1 2 3
Resistance 15033.69 15196.48 15346.53
Support 14720.85 14570.80 14408.01
Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,675.24. Down by 65.63 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 931.76. Down by 12.98 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,823.79. Down by 10.88 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 47.07/08 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its previous close of 47.02/03.
 
MARKET BUZZ:
 
(May not be useful for day-traders.)


Gruh Finance-Strong Pedigree


BSE 511288


CMP Rs 161.90

 
 
 
 
 
 
Who owns Gruh Finance? Nos % of Equity

HDFC                                      21307785 61.49

Merrill Lynch Espana     1155268   3.33

Acacia Partners                 1103775   3.19

DSP Blackrock                   669327   1.93

DSP Blackrock                   531491   1.53

Tata Investments                   500000   1.44

Acacia Partners                   467200   1.35


                                                  25734846 74.26


Financials In Rs/Crore Mar-09 Mar-08


Revenues                              294 202

PAT                                            50               42

Equity Rs                                35               35

EPS Rs                               14.3   12


Structural break-up 


Disbursements Rs/Crore       656   632

Loan Assets Rs/Crore     2086 1769

Gross NPA %                    0.9 


Outlook FY10 


Disbursements Rs/Crore 850-900

Estimated PAT Rs /Crore 60

Estimated EPS                          Rs   17 
 


Valuation 

Should command PE of                15

12 Month Price Target Rs 255 


Why A Higher PE Multiple?  


Gruh Is Owned by HDFC 

No Exposure To Commercial RE 

Business Relations with HDFC & 

HDFC Bank, HDFC Sec, HDFC MF 

& HDFC Standard Life Customers  


Strong CAGR over 5 yrs 20

Loans Backed By High Collateral 

Non Existent NPAs % 0.9

High Dividend Pay-out per share 4.8      
 


(Correction: We have forgotten to type "PSL Limited" as a Heading in Yesterday's

Newsletter. Error is regretted.)    


(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)


--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381