Wednesday, October 29, 2008

OUTLOOK FOR TODAY 29TH OCT 2008

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Utv Soft,Ultratech Cemc, Wipro, Walchanna, WelsGuj,United Phosphoro,Videocon, Wockhardt, Zylog Systems & Zee.
This is list of 10 Weak Futures:
Parsvnath, Bajaj Hind,National Alu, Ivrcl Infrast, Ivr Prime Urban, Brigade, Jundal Stainl, Puravankara Proj, Suzlon & United Phosphoro.

Nifty is in Down Trend.

Inflation drops below 11%, down to 10.68%
Inflation for the week ended October 18 fell to 10.68 per cent, from 11.07 per cent in the earlier week. Inflation has fallen below 11 per cent for the first time since May this year.

FII DATA
FII
29/10: -1306.35 Cr. (Prov)
DII
29/10: 739.66 Cr. (Prov)
Arvind Parekh™: INFLATION @10.68%


India 2-day call rate at 9.75-10% vs 9.75-9.85% on Mon
FIIs net sell $ 292 m in equity on Oct 24
Mutual Funds net sell Rs 318.6 cr on Oct 24

Speculation is that Bank of Japan may lower the benchmark lending rate to 0.25 percent from 0.5 percent on Oct. 31.
The Federal Reserve may cut rates by 0.50 % in today's meeting. There is no positive reactions in our market.
If Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 0.75% in today's meeting then market may stage a rally.



NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Above 2715 level, rally may continue up to 2739-2741 zone by non-stop.

Support at 2678-2680 zone

. Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 2652-2654 zone and thereafter selling may continue up to 2628-2630 zone.

Buy if touches 2474-2476 zone. Stop Loss at 2449-2451 zone.

On Positive Side, if crosses & sustains at above 2764-2766 zone then uptrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term trend is bearish and worst may be over at around 2546 level (Already broken) on down side.

On Positive Side, short rallies up to 3085 level can be used to exit. Maintain a Stop Loss at 3265 level for your short positions too.

-----------

BSE SENSEX

Technically buying should continue. If bulls are reluctant then bears

will try to hammer and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:

Trend is Bearish & Technical target at around 8612 (Already broken) level on down side. Relief rally up to 10216 level can be used to exit. SL at 10750 level.

-----------

Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Weak Futures: Bajajhind, Aban, Ivrprime, Strtech, Welguj, Essaroil, Ivrclinfra, Suzlon, Purva & Unitech.

Nifty is in Down Trend.

---------------------------

MAHINDRA & MAHIN (NSE Cash): Likely to Zoom. Technically it should go up.

If crosses & sustains at above 301 level then uptrend may continue.Support at 261 level. Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Zoom. Technically it should go up.

If crosses & sustains at above 80 level then uptrend may continue.Support at 38 level. Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

---------------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,065.12. Up by 889.35 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 940.51. Up by 91.59 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,649.47. Up by 143.57 points.

Money Market closed on Tuesday for a local holiday.

----------------------

+ve sectors & scripts :

IT, KPIT, Bata, Akruti,GDL

Buy Mphasis-171 for 190-198 with sl 166

Buy Rolta-175 for 192-197 with sl 170

Buy OFSS-517 for 574 with sl 500

Buy TCS-540 for 579-620 with sl 525

--------


--
The Equity Bulls Are Buying! Does That Signal A Dawn?

I listen to Warren Buffett's words carefully. Not because I'm a hero worshipper, but because the Oracle of Omaha knows the investment world inside and out. His conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, has returned a compound annual gain of 27.1% over the last 42 years (through the end of 2007). And individually, he is the richest man in the world.

So, what has Buffett been saying lately? Here are some of his comments made last week ..."In my adult lifetime, I don't think I've ever seen people as fearful economically as they are now." "The recession is going to get worse. I don't want to hold out false hopes that — by some magic bullet — that things will turn around in a couple months."

"This really is an economic Pearl Harbor. That sounds melodramatic, but I've never used that phrase before. And this really is one."

Discouraging stuff, to say the least. And unfortunately, I agree with all of it.

People are panicking more than I have ever seen. The country's mood has changed. What were once distant possibilities had become immediate dangers. Everyday Indians, not necessarily even investors, are angry and worried. This past weekend, while visiting my friends, I was questioned on the markets by nearly everyone I encountered. There is no question that the worry is well founded. Like Buffett, I have been saying for quite some time that even if our country is not in an official recession, it sure feels like one. Falling investment values, rising prices for daily necessities, money markets freezing out investors ... these are serious threats to a nation's wealth and security.

However, There Is Also Wisdom in Another Buffett Saying:

That We Should Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful ...

This is easier said than done, of course. But some investors — even as they openly worry about the future — are making bullish bets. Buffett is a prime example. While he is talking about the sad state of affairs, he is ACTING on the belief that things will improve. Buffett committed $3 billion to General Electric and $5 billion to Goldman Sachs in exchange for preferred shares in the two companies. Buffett's moves are bullish.

And never forget that Buffett has also made billions of bullish bets using options on not just the S&P 500, but also three other unnamed foreign stock market indexes. While the details are scant, Buffett has said all of these bets expire between 2019 and 2027 and were struck at the market. In other words, he believes stocks — both in the U.S. and in other foreign markets — will be higher 10 years from now than they are today.

There could be plenty more pain ahead. But I want to come back to the greed part ... the reason to buy when everyone else is fearful. Bears can be absolutely brutal, but the ensuing bull runs have always paid off handsomely for patient investors. Am I saying that right now is the absolute bottom or the time to buy with both hands? No.

But I do think we should all keep the market's history in mind as we watch the daily ticker tape ...We should pay close attention to what legendary investors like Warren Buffett are not only saying, but DOING ...and we should be setting ourselves up for long-term gains with a strong element of short-term protection.





Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381