Thursday, May 13, 2010

Market Outlook 13th May 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks
Ashok Ley, Glaxo, Ansal Infra, Andhra Bank, UCO Bank, India Hotel, Uniphos, Vijaya Bank, EKC & RECL.  
And this is list of 10 Weak stocks
Renuka, Idea, Balrampur Chini, Bajaj Hind, ABB,  Bharti Airtel, Educomp, Aban Off shore, Punj Lloyd & India Cement.
The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Rally may continue up to 5163 level for time being. 
Support at 5121 & 5140 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 5087-5089 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5065-5067 zone by non-stop. 
Below 5055-5057 zone, expect panic up to 5033-5035 zone by non-stop. 

On Positive Side, cross above 5195-5197 zone can take it up to 5227-5229 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 
Down Side Target at 4812.00. 
Stop Loss at 5238.00.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
ALBK FUTURES 
The economy is on the track of recovery. In this scenario the public sector banks are in plan to offer personal loans on a bigger scale to customers so as to improve their margins as well as profitability. The reason behind this plan is that the personal loans yield higher returns than any other loan product. 
Banks like Allahabad Bank, Uco Bank, Union Bank of India and United Bank of India have chalked out plans on how to sell their high yielding personal loan products to the retail customer. 

The retail loan share of these banks is lower than the industry average and thus they need to scale up. These banks have a retail loan share of 12-14% as compared to the industry average of 20-22%. These banks and many others had stopped their personal loan segment fearing chances of default after the economic slowdown.

Technicals: ALBK FUTURES 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise & Real Buying too.

Bull's eyeing a Target of 170.90 level on upper side. If you look at Positive Global Cues, then this target may be possible too. 

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 152.60 level by non- stop and have caution.

TECHM FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
BT Group Plc may wait for Tech Mahindra Ltd. to merge with Mahindra Satyam Ltd. before BT sells its stake in Tech Mahindra, the Hindu Business Line reported, citing people it didn't identify.  
BT, the largest U.K. fixed-line phone company, owns about a 30 percent stake in Pune, India-based Tech Mahindra. 

Technicals: TECHM FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
Actually Selling taken place in last 5 Trading Days. (Yesterday it gained.) Do not worry about this fall. 
Bear's eyeing a Target of 680.80 level on down side. If you look at Positive Global Cues then this target may not be possible too. 
On Positive Side, if Start Recovers then expect a jump up to 796.60 level and have caution.

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5200 CALL OPTION 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged. 
Bull's eyeing a Target of 91.40 level on upper side. It looks that, target is too far on upper side too. 

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 49.50 level by non- stop and have caution.

RELIANCE 1100 CALL OPTION 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged. 
Bull's eyeing a Target of 22.50 level on upper side.  
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 11.20 level by non- stop and have caution.

Equity:
RECLTD (NSE Cash) 
Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) was included in the Morgan Stanley Capital International, or MSCI index. 

Technicals: RECLTD (NSE Cash) 
Yesterday's rally on expected lines. Real Buying too.
Bull's eyeing a Target of 275.90 level on upper side. It looks that, up side may be limited from current levels and have caution. 
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 262.50 level by non- stop and have caution. Huge risk involved.

BAJAJFINSV (NSE Cash) 
Bajaj Finserv jumped after reporting fourth-quarter profit of 4.34 billion rupees, from 1.07 billion a year earlier. 

Technicals: BAJAJFINSV (NSE Cash) 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise & Real Buying too. 
Bull's eyeing a Target of 478.95 level on upper side. It looks that, up side may be limited from current levels and have caution. 
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 434.05 level by non- stop and have caution. Huge risk involved.

PDUMJEPULP (NSE Cash) 
Pudumjee Pulp & Paper Mills Limited has informed the Exchange that "Pudumjee-G:Corp Developers in which the Company is a majority Partner has formally launched the first phase of their residential project which is under construction.  
The response during the soft launch has been encouraging and so far 115 apartments out of 176 have already been booked.  
The entire project is expected to be completed in 3 phases. This project involves construction and sale of luxurious 658 flats of 2 BHk and 3 BHK with an aggregate saleable area of 9,30,000 sq.ft. (approx)

  Corporate News Headline
Bajaj Auto reported a net profit of Rs 5.29 bn for Q4'10 as compared to Rs 1.30 bn in the same quarter previous year. The net sales of the company was Rs 32.90 bn as against Rs 17.88 bn. (BS)
Educomp Solutions has bagged an order worth Rs. 511.4 mn from the Bihar government to provide computer education in 600 senior secondary schools across the state for a period of three years. (BS)
Punj Lloyd won a Rs. 20.56 bn contract for the Shah Gas Development Project in Abu Dhabi, in consortium with Technicas Reunidas of Spain. The consortium will execute the gas-gathering package for the project on the EPC basis. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
India's industrial production grew more than 10% for the sixth straight month, adding to inflation pressures even as Europe's debt crisis threatens to undermine the global economic recovery. Output at factories, utilities and mines rose 13.5% in March from a year earlier after gaining 15.1% in February, as per the Statistics Department. (Bloomberg)
UK unemployment climbed to a 16-year high in the first quarter, underlining the fragility of the recovery as Conservative David Cameron begins his premiership. Unemployment measured by International Labour Organization methods rose 53,000 to 2.51 million, the Office for National Statistics said. (Bloomberg)
Europe's economy expanded at a faster pace than economists forecast in the first quarter as a global recovery boosted exports, helping the region overcome the Greek fiscal crisis and consumers' reluctance to increase spending. Gross Domestic Product in the 16 euro nations rose 0.2% from the fourth quarter, when it remained unchanged, as per the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg. (Bloomberg)

SPOT/CASH INDEX LEVELS TODAY 
NSE Nifty Index   5156.65 ( 0.40 %) 20.50       
 1 23
Resistance 5186.405236.65   5266.60  
Support 5106.205076.25 5026.00

BSE Sensex 17195.81 ( 0.32 %) 54.28      
 1 23
Resistance 17312.3017483.08 17587.00
Support 17037.6016933.68 16762.90
Today Market Update on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/morning-brief/morning-brief-13May2010.htm

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDate Buy ValueSell Value Net Value
FII 12-May-20102068.49 2365.72-297.23
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
DII12-May-2010 1191.031010.61 180.42

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381