Cash Market Intra-Day: Buy GAIL (NSE Cash CMP 409.50) for Intra-Day gains. Stop Loss at 405.50 level
NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 3839.30-3841.30 zone. Rallies up to 3895.50 can be used to sell. SL at 3992.10 level.
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NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 4022 level, expect short covering up to 4071-4073 zone by non-stop.
Support at 3970 & 3988 levels.
Below 3920-3922 zone, expect panic and have caution.
On Positive Side, rallies up to 4119-4121 zone can be used to sell.
Stop Loss is too far on upper side and can be placed at around
4199-4201 zone.
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term Upward Target at 4248-4250 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 3871-3873 zone.
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COLGATE PALMOLIV (NSE Cash): Likely to Zoom. Technically it should go up.
If crosses & sustains at above 427 level then uptrend may continue.
Support at 400 level. It should not be allowed to break at any cost.
DABUR INDIA FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Zoom. Technically it should go up.
If crosses & sustains at above 94 level then uptrend may continue.
Support at 85 level. It should not be allowed to break at any cost.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,143.13. Up by 121.07 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,213.27. Up by 4.09 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,183.34. Down by 3.23 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 46.5450/5550 per
dollar on Friday, below its 46.20/22 at close on Thursday.
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FMCG INDEX Stocks May Zoom
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Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Future:
Syndi Bk, Gtoffshore, Moserbaer, Hind UniLvr, Glaxo, Acc, HeroHonda, Jindalsaw, Albk & ColPal.
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Unitech, 31Infotech, Ivrprime, Kpit, Aptecht, Hdil, Niit, Strtech, Litl & Ranbaxy.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
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Market may open with small gap up, Positional target for cash nifty
3822-3801, Be cautious on market and longs, close below 3800 more
bearish in intra as well as positional.Keep Cash nifty levels 3900 and
3800 for support and 4023 and 4067-80 for resistance.
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+ve Indices and sector :
Cement, Spic, Emami, ITC, Shantigear,Sunpharm a
Short Bankindia-276 for 263 with sl 280
Short HDFCBank-1244 for 1200 with sl 1255
Short Nationalumn- 380 for 363 with sl 386
Buy NTPC-174 above 177 for 183 with sl 174
Buy ACC-613 above 616 for 633 with sl 610
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+ve to Market
1.US Market 2. Nuclear Deal 3. US's crisis recovery package 4.
-ve to Market
1. Asian Market (Mixed) 3. Crude 4. Technical breakout 5. Gold 6. SGX
Nifty 7.Sentiment
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India: Do Not Remain Under An Illusion, The Worst Is Still To Come
In comparison to the Year 2000-2003 Bear Market, Bombay has still a long way to slide down. Till decrepit NBFCs, Private Commercial Banks, Heavily leveraged Cyclical stocks do not move down to low PEs, and till all loss making concerns are out of mutual fund portfolios, Indian investors beyond the odd blip here or there can trust that we have equalled the fall of September 2000. The bigger fall which will take Bombay below 7000 over the next 15-18 months is still to come. My view is that the great dollar-based credit expansion of the last half-century has come to an end. It will end with BOTH a bang and a whimper – that is, both a deflationary contraction...and an inflationary blow-off. A deflationary contraction is the market's normal response to an inflationary boom. And an inflationary blow-off is the market manipulators' normal response to a deflationary contraction; but let me hasten to add, there is no guarantee that they can pull it off. So, as usual, we live in a world of great unknowns...and lesser unknowns...and things we don't even know we don't know. What we do know is that stocks have not yet bottomed out (they are nowhere near their low points)...and bonds are still expensive (people still lend to the U.S. government for 10 years at less than 3% – that's substantially less than the current consumer inflation rate)...and the dollar is still treated with respect, even though its long-term value is zero, Which gives me the conviction that while the US and its markets will survive, very little will remain of the Emerging Markets. There is a lot that can go wrong that hasn't gone wrong yet, in other words. "The worst is to come." Sometimes it's nice to hear things laid out bluntly – and long time sufferers know that. Former chief economist of the IMF, Professor Kenneth Rogoff is not one to sugarcoat or mince words. He told attendees of a conference in Singapore that in the worldwide credit crunch, "The U.S. is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at a halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say the worst is to come." The recent nationalization of the mortgage giants in the US, is the market manipulators response to the deteriorating market conditions. The merger of Wamu with Citi, and the task that Wachovia is having with other Banks means the scare of Default has now spread to the Bank Depositors. Foreign investors, especially the large nations with current account surpluses in Asia hold too much US Treasury and Bank Commercial Paper-most of which is worthless. To keep the confidence of Asian partners alive the US Treasury will not cut interest rates any more. At the same dissolution of Western Equity Investment in India and other nations of Asia which carry Trade, Budget and Fiscal Deficits will continue as Investors pull out even 10 or 20 cent to the Dollar on their Investments. The Global financial problems are bigger than an odd Bank rescue here or there. Even the $ 700 bn US bail-out may just put the brakes on but will not stop the Car without brakes. Different nations in Asia have their own unique problems. While Japan is not exposed to subprime, it holds around ¥9.6 trillion in bonds and mortgage-backed paper issued by finance groups. We all know that these securities aren't guaranteed by the U.S. government. Russia, China and all Asian Forex Surplus nations hold US Treasuries in lieu of cash. Till the dollars return home and the dollar debts are repaid, there will be no end to the on-going financial crisis and no bottoming of stocks.(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
