Market Outlook 18th Sep 2009

INTRADAY calls for 18th Sep 2009
BUY APIL-545 @ 540 for 566+ with sl 533
BUY JPAssociates-247 @ 240 for 266+++ with sl 235
Expcted Breakout
BUY AIAENG-285 above 292 for 366+++ with sl 285
BUY Punjlloyd-271 above 275 for 320+++ with sl 269
BUY 3IInfo-88 above 90 for 116+++ with sl 85
BUY GATI-59 above 61 for 73+++ with sl 56

 

stocks that are in news today: -Aditya Puri says: CAR to go up from 15.6% to 17% after HDFC warrants conversion -NSE F&O: Kingfisher comes into curb, Aban comes out of curb -Jindal Cotex to list on September 22, issue price at Rs 75 per share -Gwalior Chemical board meet on September 23 on buyback postponed -Indian Commodity Exchange to sell 5% stake to IDFC: NW18 -Roman Tarmat bags order worth Rs 9.6 crore from Nagpur Airport -Greenply Industries rights issue opens September 23, offer of 3 shares for every 10 @ Rs 90/share -El Forge to sell Chennai property as part of restructuring, likely to fetch Rs 10 crore: BL ((listed co)) -Ex-split: MVL from Rs 10 to Rs 2 -Ex-rights: TV18 @ 1:2 -Board meets: HBL Power on issue of shares

Kenyan tea prices touch to its all time high of $3.02 / Kg (~Rs 145 / Kg) as poor weather hurts crop (34%yoy increase over average tea prices of $2.2 /kg [Rs 108 /kg] during January-July 2008).  We believe this along with decline in domestic tea production should boost up the prices of raw tea at various auctions in India.

 

NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
SUPPORT
4959
4950
4929
4922
4901
RESISTANCE
4988
4993
5002
5023
5030
5051
Buy TATA METALIK;Buy GWALIOR CHEMICAL INDS 

 

Strong & Weak  futures  

This is list of 10 strong futures:

Orchid chem, Jindal Saw, IOB, Hindalco, Bank Of India, Allahabad Bank, Orient Bank, Tata Motors, Chenn Petro & India Hote.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Container. Co, Dish TV, Finance Tech, Cipla, Power Trading, MTNL, McDowell-N, Idea, TV-18 & Bel.

Nifty is in Up trend

 

 NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
 Below 4959 level, expect profit booking up to 4950-4952 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4929-4931 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 4988 & 4993 levels. Above these levels, rally may continue up to 5000-5002 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5021-5023 zone by non-stop.

Cross above 5028-5030 zone, can take it up to 5049-5051 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at arund 4922-4924 zone. Stop Loss at 4901-4903 zone.
 
Short-Term Investors: 
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4790.00 level, it can zoom up to 5155.00 level by non-stop. 

 

BSE SENSEX:
Lower opening expected. Recovery should happen. 

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 17281.17 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 16119.95 level for your long positions too.
 

POSITIONAL BUY:
Buy TATA METALIK (NSE Cash) 
Expect uptrend in this scrip.

Profit booking up to 98 level will be healthy. Keep a Stop Loss at 94 level for your long positions too.

Expect a target of 107 level on upper side. If crosses & sustains above 111 level then uptrend may continue.
 
Buy GWALIOR CHEMICAL INDS (NSE Cash) 
Expect uptrend in this scrip.

Profit booking up to 102 level will be healthy. Keep a Stop Loss at 100 level for your long positions too.

Expect a target of 107 level on upper side. If crosses & sustains above 110 level then uptrend may continue.
 

 FUNDS DATA 

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	17-Sep-2009	6122.95	3363.49	2759.46

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	17-Sep-2009	1820.48	1634.24	186.24

 

SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	4965.55	( 0.14 %)	7.15
		1	2	3
Resistance		4997.68	5029.82	5056.58
Support		4938.78	4912.02	4879.88

	16711.11		( 0.20 %)	34.07
			1	2	3
Resistance			16808.57	16906.03	16992.04
Support			16625.10	16539.09	16441.63

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,783.92. Down by 7.79 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,065.49. Down by 3.27 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,126.75. Down by 6.40 points.

The partially convertible rupee INR=IN closed at 48.15/16 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Wednesday's close of 48.24/25.
 
 Interesting findings on web:
Stocks slipped on Thursday after a three-day runup on concern recent gains were overextended despite the latest round of solid economic data.

Positive data on unemployment and an increase in new home construction couldn't lift stocks on Thursday. The major indexes dipped into negative territory in the afternoon but managed to pare losses late in the session for a near-flat finish.

Analysts said investors were trying to assess whether further market gains were justified, with the benchmark S&P 500 now up 58 percent since its early March lows.

Shares of financials, energy and other sectors that have led recent gains lost ground. American Express Co (AXP.N), down 2.3 percent at $35, was among top drags on the Dow, along with Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N), down 0.7 percent at $69.84.

Data showed business activity in the Mid-Atlantic states jumped more than expected in September and advanced to its highest level since June 2007, underscoring hopes that the economic recovery was on track.

"We're extremely overbought and extremely susceptible to a pullback," said Stephen Massocca, managing director of Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco. "But there's been nothing but a barrage of positive news."

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 7.79 points, or 0.08 percent, to end at 9,783.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 3.27 points, or 0.31 percent, at 1,065.49. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 6.40 points, or 0.30 percent, at 2,126.75.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 1.91, or 0.3 percent, to 615.47.

Trading was choppy as the market also absorbed buying and selling based on the expiration of options.

The stock market has risen in eight of the past 10 days and hopes for a recovery have propelled the Standard & Poor's 500 index up 57.5 percent from a 12-year low in early March. The pace of the gains has brought warnings from analysts that stocks have risen too quickly.

"This market has become kind of saturated with good news," said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.

David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds, still expects stocks will push higher but said a break is necessary. "Eventually the market does need to take a breather," he said.

Kleintop is encouraged that some of the market's recent gains have been moderate and that investors remain skeptical. The counterintuitive logic of Wall Street would argue that all the predictions of a slide could keep the rally going.

"It's been kind of a steady grind over time bringing investors kind of kicking and screaming back into this market," he said.

Weighing on the Nasdaq was Oracle Corp (ORCL.O), which fell 2.8 percent to $21.52, a day after reporting first-quarter revenue that missed expectations.

In other economic news, U.S. housing starts and permits increased to their highest level since November, largely due to a big gain in multifamily starts.

U.S. housing starts were up 1.5% to a 598,000-unit annual rate in August. This was about in line with the 595,000 pace that markets had expected, but comes after upward revisions to the prior two months. On a year over year basis, housing starts are down 29.6%, better than the -36.9% pace in July.

Housing starts rose 1.5% last month, matching Wall Street expectations, while building permits ticked upwards but fell short of the consensus estimate. Investors remained cautious on the sector, Toll Brothers ( TOL - news - people ), KB Home ( KBH - news - people ) and D.R. Horton ( DHI - news - people ) all fell a few points.

The Commerce Department said housing starts rose in August to their highest level in nine months amid a jump in apartment building. The increase was just below the pace economists had forecast.

Also, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell unexpectedly last week, the government reported.

Initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to 545,000 in the week ended September 12. The reading is better than the 560,000 expected by markets, though Labor Day distortions may reduce some of its impact on markets. Continuing claims surged 129,000 to a 6,230,000 pace in the week ended September 5, only partially erasing the 165,485 drop seen the prior week. The insured unemployment rate climbed to 4.7% from 4.6% reported the prior week.

It was the lowest level of new claims since early July, indicating job cuts could be easing. However, those continuing to file for claims came in just above analysts' forecasts at 6.2 million. Many economists consider unemployment to be the biggest obstacle to a rebound in the economy.

The data follows a three-day string of higher closes for stocks, with the market on Wednesday hitting fresh 2009 highs on optimism about a global recovery. Stocks have risen eight of the last nine sessions.

In economic news Thursday, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed index surged to 14.1 in September after climbing almost 12 points to 4.2 in August. The index was at 3.8 a year ago. However, the employment component index slipped to -14.3 from -12.9 previously (-0.9 last September), highlighting ongoing weakness in the labor market. New orders slipped to 3.3 from 4.2 (5.6 a year ago) as the pace of expansion slowed. Shipments climbed to 8.2 from 0.6 (2.6 a year ago). Prices paid rose to 14.9 from 10.0 (31.5 last September). Prices received dropped to -10.6 from -1.5 (15.5 last year). The 6-month ahead general business activity index dipped to 47.8 from 56.8, though employment rose to 20.5 from 12.9.

Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw doesn't think the housing starts report was "quite as positive as the headline reading suggested because all of the upside in August was concentrated in the volatile multi-family category." He also noted the initial jobless claims fall of 12,000 to 545,000 apparently surprised investors who had been looking for an increase to 575,000-580,000.

Among gainers, shares of American Airlines parent AMR Corp (AMR.N) rose 19.7 percent to $8.80 after the company said it had raised $2.9 billion and would shift flying to more profitable routes. An index of airline shares .XAL gained 1.8 percent.

The Dow eased 0.1% as losses in Travelers (TRV) and Verizon (VZ) were cushioned by gains in Caterpillar (CAT), Bank of America and Coca Cola (KO).

General Electric [GE  16.66    -0.34  (-2%)], which have rallied through key levels this week, started the day at the top of the Dow pack, then tumbled to the bottom before ending down just 1.4 percent at $16.66. The market buzz is that Vivendi Universal — not only isn't likely to buy NBC Universal, but — may sell its stake in the unit, which is the parent of CNBC.

Alcoa, in terms of percentage decline, on the Dow.

STEC (STEC) gapped down, plunged 17% and sliced its 50-day moving average on about five-times average trade. Wedbush Morgan noted increasing competition for the maker of computer memory products.

NVE Corp. (NVEC) gapped down and shed 8% on nearly four times normal volume.

The thinly traded issue erased gains from last week's breakout and is now 2% below a 56.96 buy point from a flat base.

Medifast (MED) turned tail from a record high and lost 7% on nearly twice its average trade. The stock managed to close off session lows after tumbling as much as 12%.

On the upside, NewMarket (NEU) reversed earlier losses and climbed 4% on heavy trade. That puts the chemical additives maker 17% past an 81.73 buy point from a square box.

Chinese issues remained red hot.

China Fire & Security (CFSG) gapped up and gained 8% to a new all-time high. But the stock was up nearly 13% at session high.

Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) rallied 5% in active trading. Global mutual fund ownership of the stock has more than doubled from just a quarter ago.

Hovnanian [HOV  4.65    0.24  (+5.44%)] and Beazer [BZH  5.13    0.30  (+6.21%)] each gained more than 5 percent.

Besides AMR, a number of other companies announced financing moves Thursday. Prudential Financial (PRU) said that Nippon Life Insurance Company had signed a definitive agreement to purchase a $500 million 10-year exchangeable surplus note issued by The Prudential Insurance Company of America. Under the terms of the transaction, Nippon Life can exchange the surplus note for shares of Prudential Financial common stock at any time, at Nippon Life's option, beginning on the fifth anniversary of issuance of the note.

Kodak [EK  5.93    -0.75  (-11.23%)] shares tumbled more than 11 percent after the imaging company said it plans to raise $700 million, including a commitment from private-equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, to boost its balance sheet and free up cash for investments.

Eastman Kodak (EK) said it expects to raise up to $700 million through a series of financing transactions, including a commitment from Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (KKR) managed investment vehicles to purchase up to $400 million in senior secured notes due 2017. Kodak also agreed to issue KKR warrants to purchase up to 53 million common shares. The company also plans private placement of $300 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2017.

Synovus Financial (SNV), Rigel Pharmaceuticals (RIGL), and Vivus (VVUS) all made announcements related to public equity offerings Thursday.

Palm shares [PALM  14.44    -0.22  (-1.5%)] fell 1.5 percent ahead of its earnings, which came after the closing bell.

Palm shares jumped Thursday as the company reported a narrower loss than expected and announced an offering of common stock.

Citigroup [C  4.42    0.22  (+5.24%)] shares rallied once again, climbing another 5.2 percent. The stock started to bounce back Wednesday after a sharp selloff in the previous session following news that the government may withdraw some of its 34-percent stake in the firm and that Citi might launch a $5 billion secondary offering.

US Bancorp [USB  22.44    -0.38  (-1.67%)] shed 1.7 percent despite an upgrade. Rochdale analyst Dick Bove raised his rating on the stock to "buy" from "neutral," saying the bank could gain market share from struggling competitors.

"Competitors are weakening as they deal with loan problems. This is creating a vacuum in the market allowing banks with bold programs to grab market share," Bove wrote in a note to clients.

Immunogen [IMGN  8.24    0.28  (+3.52%)   ] said it licensed its technology to develop anticancer drugs to Amgen [AMGN  60.52    0.83  (+1.39%)   ]. Immunogen will get a $1 million payment up front and milestone payments of up to $34 million on future royalties. Immunogen rose 3.5 percent, while Amgen gained 1.4 percent.

Elsewhere, Synovus [SNV  3.90    -0.53  (-11.96%)   ] shares dropped 12 percent The Columbus, Ga., bank-holding company priced a public stock offering at $4 a share and expects proceeds of $600 million, nearly double an estimate from earlier this week.

However, shipping company FedEx Corp (FDX.N) slid 2.2 percent to $76.46 after it reported first-quarter earnings that fell 53 percent from the prior year. The company also said it was planning rate increases to offset falling surcharge revenue.

Volume was slightly above average on the New York Stock Exchange, with 1.52 billion shares changing hands, just above last year's estimated daily average of 1.49 billion, while on the Nasdaq, about 2.61 billion shares traded, higher than last year's daily average of 2.28 billion.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a ratio of 17 to 13, while declining stocks were about even with advancers on the Nasdaq.

In other news, President Barack Obama spoke at the University of Maryland this afternoon, seeking to reenergize his supporters in the push for comprehensive health care reform.

Obama stressed the urgent need for reform, noting that it has been almost 100 years since President Theodore Roosevelt first called for changes in the healthcare system. Obama also reiterated that the bill must not add to the budget deficit and should take steps to reduce the long-term costs of health insurance.

For much of the week, the CBOE volatility index has held below 24.

Oil,Gold & Currencies:

Crude oil slipped just a bit but held above $72 a barrel.

Gold prices fell.

The dollar was mixed against other currencies.

The dollar is poised for a second- straight weekly decline against the euro, as signs the global economy is emerging from the recession spur investors to buy higher-yielding assets.

The Dollar Index traded near the weakest level in almost a year before reports next week forecast to show a gauge of leading indicators for the U.S. economy improved and German business confidence rose for a sixth month. New Zealand's dollar headed for a 10th-consecutive week of advances, matching the record winning streak ending in May 1999, as borrowing costs for the greenback fell to a record amid the easing credit crunch.

"As the economy improves and credit woes ease, investors are more inclined to float part of their huge dollar holdings," said Akio Yoshino, chief economist in Tokyo at Societe Generale Asset Management (Japan) Co., a unit of France's third-largest bank. "Riskier assets as well as the currencies of emerging markets and commodity-producing countries benefit from this at the expense of the dollar."

The dollar traded at $1.4736 per euro at 9:35 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4741 yesterday in New York. It reached $1.4767 yesterday, the weakest level since Sept. 25, 2008. The yen was at 91.39 per dollar from 91.08 yesterday. Japan's currency fetched 134.31 per euro from 134.28.

Australia's currency traded at 87.16 U.S. cents from 87.28 cents in New York yesterday, when it touched 87.75 cents, the highest since Aug. 22, 2008. New Zealand's dollar bought 71.05 U.S. cents from 71.07 cents in New York yesterday, when it reached 71.58 cents, also the most since Aug. 22, 2008.

Borrowing Costs

Benchmark interest rates are 3 percent in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand, compared with 0.1 percent in Japan and as low as zero in the U.S., attracting investors to the South Pacific nations' higher-yielding assets. The risk in such trades is that currency market moves will erase profits.

The cost of three-month loans in dollars between banks held yesterday at a record low of 0.292 percent, according to the British Bankers' Association. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, is lower than that of the yen and Swiss franc, making the dollar the cheapest funding currency.

The Dollar Index sank yesterday as low as 76.010, the weakest level since Sept. 22, 2008. The gauge dropped about 15 percent from its 2009 high of 89.624 reached in March as investors sought refuge from the global financial crisis. The gauge was little changed at 76.266 from 76.188 at yesterday's close.

Leading Indicators

The Conference Board's leading indicators, which show the outlook for the next three to six months, probably rose 0.7 percent in August, climbing for a fifth month, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The New York-based research group releases the data on Sept 21.

The Munich-based Ifo institute's business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, increased to 92.0 in September from 90.5 in the previous month, according to a separate Bloomberg News survey. The institution releases the data on Sept. 24.

The euro traded near a four month high versus the pound before a German report today that may show the pace of decline in producer prices slowed, providing more evidence the 16-nation region's economy is emerging from the recession.

'Bullish' on Euro

German producer prices dropped 7.2 percent in August from a year earlier, after a 7.8 percent decrease in July, a Bloomberg News survey of economists showed before the Federal Statistics Office releases the data in Wiesbaden. Europe posted its largest trade surplus in five years in July on increasing exports, the European Union's statistics office said in Luxembourg yesterday.

"Economic data in the euro-zone points to recovery," wrote Ron Leven, an executive director in New York at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a research note yesterday. "We see a case for some relative outperformance."

Europe's economy will probably expand in the third and fourth quarters, supported by government spending and European Central Bank interest rates at a record low of 1 percent, the commission said this week.

The euro traded at 89.65 pence from 89.61 pence yesterday, when it rose to 89.69 pence, the highest level since May 14. The European currency was at 1.5161 francs from 1.5160 francs.

Technical Indicator

Australia's and New Zealand's dollars pared weekly gains on speculation that their advances versus the dollar may stall, according to a technical indicator. The 14-day relative strength index on the Australian dollar-U.S. dollar exchange rate climbed to 70.09 Sept. 16, the highest level since June 2. A reading of 70 indicates a rally is approaching an extreme and a reversal may be imminent.

"Given the fact that the global economy has not rebounded to pre-financial crisis levels, currencies such as the Australian dollar that have already fully recovered may face headwinds in extending their advances," said Daisaku Ueno, chief analyst at Gaitame.Com Research Institute Ltd., a unit of Japan's largest currency margin company.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters in Tokyo yesterday that while stimulus measures have helped the economy improve, "we're not confident about the strength of private final demand after those effects fade."

Bonds:

Bond prices jumped, pushing yields lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.39 percent from 3.48 percent late Wednesday.

What to expect:

Friday is quadruple witching, meaning four key expirations — stock index futures and options, and stock futures and options — which is likely to put some volatility into the market.

Asia:

Asian stocks fell, dragging the MSCI Asia Pacific Index from a one-year high, as Aiful Corp. sought to reschedule its debt payments and metal prices declined.

Aiful Corp., Japan's third-largest consumer lender by revenue, had yet to trade though was bid lower by 27 percent. Rival Promise Co. dropped 12 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, slipped 1.4 percent, following declines by copper and gold yesterday in New York.

The MSCI Asia Pacific slipped 0.8 percent to 117.89 as of 10:36 a.m. in Tokyo, falling from its highest close since Sept. 8, 2008. The index climbed 67 percent from a five-year low on March 9 through yesterday as stimulus measures around the world pulled economies out of recession. Stocks in the gauge traded at 1.6 times book value, the highest since September 2008.

"Uncertainties are clouding the outlook for Japanese financial companies and investors are shunning them," said Juichi Wako, a senior strategist at Tokyo-based Nomura Holdings Inc. "People want to take profit before a five-day holiday" that begins tomorrow in Japan.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 1.2 percent in Japan, where stock markets resume trading on Sept. 24. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.8 percent.

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index retreated 0.5 percent. The benchmark fell 0.3 percent yesterday as companies including FedEx Corp. and Oracle Corp. reported sales that missed analysts' estimates.

Aiful's Plan

Aiful was poised to drop 27 percent to 134 yen, with sell orders outnumbering those to buy. The company said it will try to reschedule debt payments after the financial crisis hurt its ability to raise money.

Promise retreated 12 percent to 533 yen. Takefuji Corp. slumped 11 percent to 412 yen. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., which holds a stake in Promise, declined 2.7 percent to 3,270 yen.

On Sept. 14, Standard & Poor's said it put Aiful and rival Takefuji on credit watch for possible downgrade.

BHP retreated 1.8 percent to A$38.89 Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-largest mining company, fell 1.4 percent to A$60.53. Copper futures fell 1.4 percent in New York yesterday as stockpiles tallied by the London Metal Exchange swelled for a 15th day. Gold lost 0.7 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index's six-month rally has been driven by better-than-estimated economic reports and corporate earnings. Of 647 companies on the gauge that have reported net income for the latest quarter, 225 beat analyst predictions, while 138 missed.

Nikkei 225 10,315.41     -128.39 ( - 1.23%). (08.21 AM IST).

Tokyo's Nikkei average fell 1.2 percent on Friday, hurt by financials after consumer finance firm Aiful Corp said it would ask creditors to push back repayments, while exporters such as Advantest Corp lost steam after a strong run-up.

The fall came as investors took a breather after gains that pushed the Nikkei to end above its 25-day moving average the previous day, market players said. Trade was also cautious ahead of a five-day holiday from September 19-23 in Japan.

The benchmark Nikkei slipped 128.39 points to 10,315.41, after gaining 1.7 percent on Thursday to hit a one-week closing high.

The broader Topix retreated 1 percent to 930.03.

HSI 21740.36 -28.15 -0.13%. (08.24 AM IST)

Hong Kong stocks headed lower Friday after rallying to finish at 2009 highs in the previous two sessions, with banks and property shares giving up some of their strong recent gains. The Hang Seng Index dropped 0.7% to 21,616.14 in early action, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.7%, in line with a 0.4% drop in the Shanghai Composite to 3,047.36. BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:2388 (HK:2388 17.66, -0.90, -4.85%) tumbled 5.4% after rising in 10 of the previous 11 sessions, with property developers Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:12 (HK:12 52.20, -0.65, -1.23%) falling 1.4% and Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:16 (HK:16 114.80, -1.90, -1.63%) dropping 2.4%. 

 

SSE Composite  3052.42   -0.26.(08.26 AM IST)

Chinese stocks open 0.1% higher on Fri

Chinese stocks opened slightly higher on Friday morning, tracking gains from the previous closing.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A shares and B shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, opened at 3,063.31 points, up 0.1% or 3.05 points from the previous closing.

The Shenzhen Component Index on the smaller Shenzhen Stock Exchange opened 0.11% or 13.17 points higher at 12,486.78 points.

China's key stock index opened up 0.1 percent on Friday, supported by the launch of 15 mutual funds which offset the outlook for more share supplies.

The Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC opened at 3,063.309 points, after rising 2 percent to a more than 1-month closing high on Thursday.

The official China Securities Journal on Friday reported that 15 mutual funds were launched on Sept. 17, with one of them raising 2 billion yuan ($293 million) on the first day.

However, Metallurgical Corp of China (MCC) said it would list its shares in Shanghai on Monday after raising up to $5.3 billion in the world's second-largest initial public offering (IPO) this year.

China's securities regulator also approved on Thursday the first seven firms to list on the new Nasdaq-style second board, state media reported.

Analysts said there were clear signs of stable government policy ahead of the National Day Holiday, therefore more share supply may not impact the index immediately. The index could test its 60-day moving average at 3,086 points shortly. ($1 = 6.83 yuan) 
 

China may launch 1st REIT by end-2009.

China's power consumption up 8.22% in Aug.

Shenhua Energy August coal output up 13.3%.

PetroChina to triple gas output of Daqing Oilfield by 2020.

China Coal Energy's output up 13 % in Aug.

Sunten, Areva T&D approved to set up JV in China.

China Life earns RMB 210.7 bln in premium income in Jan-Aug.

Fubon Bank Hong Kong approved to set up office in Dongguan.

China Huiyuan Juice's H1 net profit plunges 82%.

TCL kicks off construction of Huizhou LCD base Phase III.

Geely says bond issuance not for Volvo bid.

Haier, Triview kick off construction on Macedonian plant.

Schroder cuts stake in China Communications Services to 5.07%.

Yanlord Land announces use of concurrent offering proceeds.

   

China's yuan may resume rise against dollar ... gradually

Chinese authorities may be about to loosen the reins on the nation's currency, allowing appreciation against the U.S. dollar to resume, although the pace could be slower than it was before the financial crisis.

"We are not looking for any abrupt moves, but directionally it would be for a stronger yuan and a weaker dollar," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange strategy at Credit Agricole's Calyon.

Currently, one U.S. dollar buys 6.83 yuan, and Calyon forecasts the Chinese currency will strengthen, with the greenback falling to 6.22 yuan by the end of 2011. The bank estimates the Chinese currency is about 15% to 20% undervalued at present levels.

Still, the pre-crisis pace of appreciation for the Chinese unit, which gained about 5% a year on the dollar earlier this decade, is unlikely to be repeated, with Beijing turning to a slower rise for its currency.

"What the authorities want to avoid is any instability," Kotecha added. "It's difficult to see a very rapid appreciation from the current level."

To be sure, the Chinese yuan -- also known as the renminbi or "people's currency" -- has been something of sleeper over the past year, remaining almost unchanged since July 2008.

Since abolishing the yuan's peg to the dollar in 2005, Beijing now allows the currency to fluctuate up to 0.5% from a so-called "central parity rate," which the People's Bank of China sets daily.

"The yuan is stuck in domestic and international politics," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu, referring to domestic pressure from exporters to devalue and international pressure to keep a stable appreciation.

He added the yuan will likely be allowed to creep higher once China's export sector begins to grow again, something which could be seen by the end of this year.

Like Caylon, Merrill Lynch says the yuan is undervalued but adds that it's hard to say by how much.

During the height of the financial crisis, China resisted the temptation to devaluate the yuan on apparent concerns such a move would spark a round of competitive currency devaluations among its regional neighbors.

In December 2008, for instance, Merrill estimates markets were pricing in a 10% deviation in the Chinese currency.

As the crisis eased, Chinese authorities decided to keep the currency basically flat against the U.S. dollar, which Lu said was an attempt to discourage foreign capital inflows.

But now pressure for the currency to appreciate is returning, Lu said, adding that China has maintained a monthly trade surplus of about $10 billion throughout the crisis.

Calyon's Kotecha says China will eventually revert back to its 5% annual appreciation against the U.S. dollar, although exactly when it will ease off the brakes is difficult to anticipate.

"China will look at other central banks at a time when the yuan has lost some competitiveness and be very uneasy about allowing further appreciation when other central banks in Asia are still holding their currencies at relatively weaker levels than they should be," Kotecha said. 

Euro zone trade surplus expands in July

The euro zone countries recorded an expanding trade surplus with the rest of the world in July, strengthening hopes of an economic recovery, the European Union (EU) statistics bureau said on Thursday.

    In July, the euro zone trade surplus stood at 12.6 billion euros(18.5 billion U.S. dollars), compared with a surplus of 5.4 billion euros (7.95 billion U.S. dollars) in June and a deficit of3.5 billion euros (5.16 billion U.S. dollars) a year ago.

    The strong rise was attributed mainly to an increase in exports, which reflected a stronger world economy.

    Seasonally adjusted exports in July compared to the previous month rose by 4.1 percent, while imports fell by 0.3 percent. 

Citi CEO: $100 Million Annual Pay Too Much

Citigroup [C  4.42    0.22  (+5.24%)   ] Chief Executive Vikram Pandit said on Thursday that $100 million is too much for an employee to earn given the bank's circumstances.

In an interview before an audience in New York, when asked if $100 million was too much money for a Citigroup employee to earn given the government support the bank has received, Pandit said, "Yes."

Andrew Hall, a trader at a Citigroup unit, is contractually entitled to a 2009 pay package that could be worth $100 million. Pandit noted that the business Hall works at, an energy trading unit known as Phibro, had contracts in place that predate Pandit's tenure.

Pandit said Citigroup is working to turn the Phibro business from an operation that trades the bank's money into a unit that manages other investors' capital.

Market Insider: Time for a Breather

The stock market took a rest Thursday, signaling traders that it may be getting ready to shake off some recent gains.

The Dow finished down 7 at 9783, after drifting most of the day. The S&P 500 was at 1065, off 3 points.

"It's taking a pause," said one trader. "Some of these high fliers are putting on the brakes. A pullback would be healthy."'

Friday's market has no economic data to chew on, though the expiration of futures and options could spark some activity in the morning.

As stocks waffled, the dollar Thursday continued to weaken. Treasury prices rose, and oil and gold both moved lower. The government announced $112 billion in auctions of 2-, 5- and 7-year notes for next week.

David Gilmore, strategist at Foreign Exchange Analytics, said the next stop against the euro is $1.50 and that could come soon. The dollar slipped slightly to $1.4733 Thursday.

"Is the world much different in the last two weeks than it was in early August? Not really, but moves can take on a life of their own and we have a whole potluck of reasons why the dollar should be lower. and everyone can find the reason they like best," Gilmore said.

"When you have these momentum trades happening and leveraged speculators pressing the bet, it's early in the move and over time, real money will have to sell some dollars."

"I think we have a considerable way to go here. Clearly, we should be at $1.50 in a week or two, and at this rate, it could be by the middle of next week."

A surprise drop in weekly jobless claims Thursday to 545,000 and a better-than-expected jump in the Philadelphia Fed's index of regional manufacturing conditions continued the week's trend of stronger data.

The Fed also released data midday that showed American households saw the first improvement in their net worth in two years in the second quarter. Household net worth rose by $2 trillion to $53.1 trillion. The value of stocks and real estate attributed to the gain and household debt contracted for a fourth consecutive quarter to $13.662.

"It's a big deal, but it's not surprising," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak.

"We knew corporate equities were rebounding, but $2 trillion is a relative drop in the bucket…we lost $14 trillion."

Greenhaus said studies show that for every dollar gained in net worth, households tend to spend $0.05 so there could be some impact on consumer spending patterns.

Getting Technical

Scott Redler, a technical strategist at T3Live.com, said he thinks the stock market is ready to pull back a few percent, based on its recent behavior.

"Every time the market moves 30 points over the previous pivot high, we've been prone to a 3 to 5 percent pull back," said Redler. He said the 1074 reached Thursday by the S&P was one of those levels.

"The first time we made a pivot high at 1018, we pulled back in to 976. Then we made a new pivot high of 1038, and then we pulled in to 992. Now today's high was 1074. We are now 30 plus points above the most recent pivot high which typically has proven to be a good place to sell some longs if you've been buying the dips in this current trend," said Redler.

"If the trend continues, the next dip that could be bought is 1040 to 1045...It's really just an uptrend. We've been in an uptrend and the uptrend hasn't broken," he said.

"When these moves happen, it's good…those have been profit taking zones for investors and shorting areas for trading pros."

Redler said technicians are eyeing 1100 as another key level for the S&P, but he expects it to retreat before reaching that point.

What Else to Watch

FDIC chair Sheila Bair, SEC chair Mary Schapiro and White House top economic adviser Larry Summers participate in a Georgetown University conference on the future of global finance Friday.

Area bankers: rural economy better but still weak

A monthly survey of bankers suggests that the rural economy in 11 Midwest and Plains states improved slightly over the past month but remains weak.

The Rural Mainstreet Index grew to 36.5 in September compared to August's 32 and July's 32.6. That overall index remains well below the growth-neutral score of 50, but it is much higher than the index's record low of 16.9 set in February.

The index ranges from 0 to 100. A score below 50 suggests the economy will contract in the next three to six months, while a score above 50 indicates the economy will expand.

Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the survey, said concerns about farm income and the relatively low crop prices this year appear to be limiting growth in rural areas.

The survey, created by Goss and Bill McQuillan, CEO of City National Bank in Greeley, covers Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

Bill Anderson, CEO of First State Bank in Hordville said corn prices, which are currently around $3.10 a bushel, are a particular concern in his area. Last summer, prices hit $6.80 a bushel.

"The recent decline in corn prices has us concerned as we enter harvest time," Anderson said.

The September farmland price index slipped to 41.1 from August's 43.7, and more than 52 percent of the bankers surveyed reported that farmland prices had declined.

Goss said farmers have cut back on major capital purchases because farm income is likely to be down this year. The survey's farm-equipment index remained in negative territory but improved to 38.6 in September from August's 32.4.

The bankers remain pessimistic in their expectations for the rural economy over the next six months despite some recent positive news about the national economy. The confidence index fell to 43.5 in September from August's 46.

"The economy is still in a big hole and the way up is a long one," said Dale Bradley, CEO of Citizens Bank in Miltonvale, Kan.

The hiring index rose to 27 in September from August's 25, but it continues to suggest that rural areas will lose more jobs on top of the ones already lost.

"Over the past 12 months, rural areas of the region have lost more than 5 percent of their jobs," Goss said.

The retail sales index improved slightly to 32.8 in September from August's 30.4.

The survey's home-sales index also improved to 42.7 in September from August's 39.2.

Almost 200 communities are represented in the survey, with the average community's population about 1,300.

Toyota Plans $1 Billion Marketing, More Hybrids

Toyota is preparing a $1 billion marketing campaign to boost U.S. sales in the fourth quarter, while also expanding its line of hybrid models under the Prius name, the company said on Thursday.

The $1 billion will include a media campaign, as well as buyer and dealer incentives, including sweeteners for leasing.

Toyota President Akio Toyoda and top U.S. company executives told Toyota and Lexus dealers of the plans at an annual dealers meeting in Las Vegas, Toyota spokesman Irv Miller said.

The $1 billion marketing and advertising plan is 30 percent to 40 percent more than Toyota typically spends in the quarter, Miller said.

The plan includes subsidizing leases and loan rates, offering other customer incentives and helping pay for dealer ads, Miller said.

The plan comes as Toyota struggles with its worst downturn since it was founded in 1937 and is expecting to report a loss for the second straight fiscal year.

Toyota also plans to raise the projected resale value of its vehicles, a figure used in calculating monthly lease payments, the report said, citing dealers briefed on the plan.

Lexus is the company's luxury brand and has its own dealerships. When the Prius line is expanded by one or two models, those cars will be sold at Toyota dealerships, said Miller.

Miller did not say when the new models will be introduced.

The sales blitz and expansion of the Prius line was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Toyota landed three models among the top 10 sold in the recent "Cash for Clunkers" incentive program by the U.S. government.

Word of the media blitz comes less than a week after General Motors[GM  0.1    0.01  (+11.11%)   ] announced its own media campaign, in large part aimed at recapturing consumers who believe Toyota and other foreign automakers make better products.

Toyota executives in Frankfurt this week said the company planned to sell 500,000 to 600,000 hybrid vehicles globally by the end of 2009. 

GOP Senator Holds Big Vote in Health Care Debate

As Democrats have struggled to achieve bipartisan support on a health care reform bill, their one hope may come from Senator Olympia Snowe, Republican from Maine.

Snowe declined to tell CNBC which way she will vote, but she did say she would have liked the bill to include more subsidies for low income people.

She also said that she is satisfied with the proposal's level of cost control, and that she sees Obama as more of a moderate than liberal.

"He's been very realistic in his views on health care, understanding the implications," Snowe told CNBC. "He obviously put [the public option] forward because that's been his position, but I think he's always indicated a willingness to be flexible on this." 

Bill Clinton Says Obama Will Prevail on Health-Care Overhaul

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton predicted that Barack Obama would prevail in his bid to win passage of his health-care initiative and that some Republican senators likely would support the legislation.

Clinton, the last president to attempt a broad overhaul of health care, said the Obama administration could win over Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, both Republicans from Maine. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus introduced an $856 billion plan yesterday that would require just about all U.S. citizens to have insurance or pay a penalty.

"It would be good if he could get some Republican support," Clinton, 63, said in an interview today in New York, speaking of the Baucus bill. "I believe he'll get Snowe and he could get Collins and he might get three or four others."

Clinton said the legislation proposed by Baucus, a Montana Democrat, was as far-reaching as the Senate would accept. Some Democrats have criticized the proposal because it doesn't include a "public option" for a government-run insurance program that would compete with private carriers.

The finance committee is the last of five congressional panels to grapple with legislation intended to expand coverage to tens of millions of uninsured Americans and rein in health- care costs, which account for a sixth of the U.S. economy. The plans being considered would mark the most sweeping changes in the nation's medical-care system in more than four decades.

Clinton said potential Republican support for the bill could end up evaporating.

'I've Seen It'

"If they believe a bill is going to pass, some of them will vote for it," Clinton said. "And if they believe they have a chance to keep any bill from passing, they will be put under excruciating pressure to vote against whatever is there for reasons that have nothing to do with health care and have everything to do with politics. I've been through this. I've seen it."

Clinton's health-care plan failed to win passage in Congress, a defeat which many Democrats believe contributed to Republicans winning control of the House and Senate in the 1994 mid-term elections.

Obama, 48, has had conversations with Clinton since taking office and had lunch with the former president in New York just days after Obama delivered his Sept. 9 speech on health care to Congress.

Asked about an unemployment rate that reached a 26-year high of 9.7 percent last month, Clinton said the most effective way to rapidly boost jobs would be to expand infrastructure and clean-energy programs.

Savings on Utilities

"We could put millions of people to work if we were properly mobilized to do it, and we could pay for most of this work through savings on utility bills," Clinton said. Clinton promoted a large-scale program to refurbish buildings for energy efficiency during his 1993-2001 presidency.

"When we're ready to put electric cars on the market, we could do the equivalent of 'cash for clunkers' for the electric cars," he said, referring to the government's recent vehicle trade-in program. "I like cash for clunkers just because it put the car people back in business."

Clinton said the Obama administration's best hope to reduce the budget deficit is to focus on reviving the economy while maintaining discipline in spending.

"If you're going to expend revenues or reduce them coming in, you have to replace them," he said. He endorsed Obama's call for "pay-as-you-go" budget rules that would require that future spending increases or tax cuts be paid for with revenue increases.

Economic Strategy

Still, he said progress on the deficit would mostly turn on the success of Obama's economic strategy. "The better the economy is, the quicker you'll balance the budget," Clinton said.

The deficit will total $1.6 trillion this year as revenue falls and the government spends at the fastest pace in 57 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said last month.

The gap will be equal to 11.2 percent of the economy, the biggest since World War II. The shortfall is largely attributable to the financial crisis, which has reduced tax revenue even as the government increased spending on stimulus programs and bailouts for financial companies and automakers, the CBO said.

Investor concern about the deficit, which has grown from $455 billion in 2008, has contributed to the weakness of the dollar. The trade-weighted dollar index has fallen 12 percent since Obama's inauguration in January. The index measures the currency's performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona.

Budget Surpluses

Under Clinton, the budget balance swung to a surplus of $236 billion in 2000, his last full year in office, from a deficit of $290 billion deficit in 1992 during the final year of the George H.W. Bush presidency. The dollar index rose 21 percent in the Clinton years.

Clinton said his philanthropic organization, the Clinton Global Initiative, may generate less money this year because of a decline in donations for clean-energy projects, even as the number of pledges increases.

"The number of commitments is already up," Clinton said. "The dollar value will probably be down because our dollar values in the past have been inflated, if you will, by the clean-energy projects and they're the most expensive."

Last year Clinton secured $8 billion in commitments from participants in the summit. This year, Obama will deliver a keynote address.
 

INVESTMENT VIEW
Vijay Shanthi Builders-Returns Outweigh The Risks

BSE 523724

Chennai based Vijay Shanthi Builders is a virtual unknown in the Northern parts of the country, but an established name in Chennai dedicated solely to the slightly non recession proof segment of Residential Real Estate. It has on it's platter close to 10 projects ranging from Premium to Luxury and Affordable Housing. 

The Premium and Luxury homes are in limited numbers and bring about exclusivity. While Lotus Pond, Infiniti and Park Avenue-all three having received financial closure are going to produce close to 2600 apartments ranging between 365 sq feet to 2000 sq feet over the next three years. 

There is a gestation involved in returns but at Rs 36.40 a share, this is a risk worth taking. Darashaw and co have a large financial position in the stock which would imply some kind of a belief in the management. 

On it's part the management at Vijay Shanthi seems to be playing a constructive role of catering to investor interest by declaring a nominal dividend of 4 per cent on it's Equity. It is obvious Vijay Shanthi is no family play, where gains are meant to be kept by the promoters-rather they intend to grow and share the wealth with the investors. 

More importantly, they seem to have their head in the right direction having avoided exposure to commercial real estate and concentrating on Residential space, that too in the middle class segment that thrives on cheap bank credit and it's availability. 

Background

For over two decades, Chennai, South India's largest City has witnessed a dramatic transformation in the lifestyle.  Vijay Shanthi have been privileged to play a constructive role in this mammoth evolutionary exercise. This corporate is a professionally managed company that has placed client satisfaction above all else. 

With "Housing for ALL" forming the under lying vision of the group, Vijay Shanthi will continue offering luxury at affordable prices to discerning citizens. 

In fact investing in a Vijay Shanthi home spells assured appreciation of property year after year, thanks to the efforts it makes to hand over CLEAR TITLE homes delivered ON TIME with NO COST ESCALATION to worry about. What more... every building has completion certificates obtained from CMDA or the Corporation.

 

On-going Projects

A. Premium Apartments-Pebble

16 Villas comprising of 4 bed-room apartments ranging between 5400 to 5800 sq feet being built at Nungambakkam.

B. Luxury Apartments-Terracotta, Glow, Fountain Square, and Faber Hills

Terracotta offers 8 apartments at Adyar ranging from 2720 to 2895 sq feet in size with four bedrooms each; Glow offers 4 apartments of 2550 sq feet each in Besant Nagar Chennai with 3 bedrooms; Fountain Square offers 16 Apartments of 1822 to 1965 sq feet with 3 bedrooms each located at Ayanavaram; Faber Hills spread over 19 acres offers 99 apartments with 3 bedrooms each, ranging from 3000 to 3500 sq feet in size.

C. Affordable Housing

Lotus Pond located in Kelambakkam, offers 1200 apartments in 23 blocks spread over 11 acres of land, with 1BHK, 2 BHK and 3 BHK options in sizes ranging from 363 sq feet to 1157 sq feet.

Water Lily offers 4 apartments of 2000 sq feet located at Okium Thoraipakkam, with 3 bed room combos. 

Infiniti is the Third largest project of Vijay Shanthi, offering 588 apartments spread over 5 acres of land in 9 storied apartment blocks with sizes ranging between 385 and 1059 sq feet in the 1,2,3 BHK format.

Park Avenue is the second biggest project of Vijay Shanthi offering 814 apartments spread over 10 acres of land in Melakottaiyur, offering sizes of 900 to 1250 sq feet with a 2 bedroom plus study combo in 10 blocks of 10 floors each.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
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Arvind Parekh

+ 91 98432 32381