Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Market Outlook 5th May 2010


  Corporate News Headline
HCL Technologies said that it has signed a five-year IT management deal worth USD 500 mn with pharma giant MSD. (BS)
Larsen & Toubro and Howden have signed a Joint Venture to design, engineer, manufacture and supply axial fans and air pre-heaters to Indian thermal power plants ranging between 100 MW to 1200 MW. (BS)
Jindal Steel & Power said its consolidated net profit rose by 7.73% to Rs. 9.63 bn in the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2010. Total income rose to Rs. 32.05 bn for the quarter ended March 31, from Rs. 28.76 bn in the same period last year. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
India attracted foreign direct investment of USD 1.21 bn in March, 2010, around 38% lower than that in the same month last year, an official said. The foreign direct investment in March, 2009, was USD 1.95 bn. (BS)
Orders placed with US factories unexpectedly rose in March, propelled by demand for capital equipment and petroleum that signals the US expansion gained speed at the end of the first quarter. The 1.3% increase in bookings matched the prior month's gain the Commerce Department said in Washington. Sales climbed 2.2%, the most since November 2007. (Bloomberg)
South Africa's unemployment rate rose for a fourth consecutive quarter in the first three months of this year as companies shed jobs while waiting for signs that the recovery in Africa's largest economy is sustainable. The jobless rate increased to 25.2% from 24.3% in the final three months of last year, Statistics South Africa said in a report. (Bloomberg)



SPOT/ CASH  INDEX LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   5148.50 ( -1.42 %) -74.25       
 1 23
Resistance 5220.825293.13   5336.12  
Support 5105.525062.53 4990.22

BSE Sensex 17137.14 ( -1.43 %) -248.94      
 1 23
Resistance 17367.3217597.50 17730.18
Support 17004.4616871.78 16641.60
 
Strong & Weak stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks: 
DCB, Indian Bank, Pir Health, UCO Bank, Andhra Bank, ICSA, Uniphos, Ashok Ley, Corp Bank & Cummins India.  
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks
Balrampur Chini, Renuka, Sesa Goa, ABB, HDIL, Tata Steel, Bajaj Hind, Triveni, Tech Mahindra & India Cement.
The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Selling may continue up to 5116-5118 zone for time being. 
Hurdles at 5152 & 5166 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 5207-5209 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5248-5250 zone by non-stop. 
Sell if touches 5289-5291 zone. Stop Loss at 5330-5332 zone. 
On Negative Side, break below 5075-5077 zone can create panic up to 5034-5036 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:
 Bullish Trend. 
Up Side Target at 5379.95 level. 
Stop Loss at 5200.05 level. 
Now SL Triggered. Expect unwinding up to 5110.10 level by non-stop. Consecutive 3 closes below 5110.10 level can take it up to 5020.15 level and have caution.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
BALRAMCHIN FUTURES 
India's sugar production in the year to September is seen at 18.5 million tonnes as against 14.8 million tonnes in 2008/09, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said on Tuesday.

The latest output estimate was higher than earlier estimate of 15.6-16.3 million tonnes in

February, he said in a statement in the lower house of parliament. 
Better-than-expected output in India, the world's top sugar consumer and the biggest

producer behind Brazil, helped benchmark New York prices SBN0 sink last month to a one-year low of 14.86 cents per lb, halving from the 29-year peak of 30.40 cents scaled in February. 
Technicals: BALRAMCHIN FUTURES 
It went down on yesterday & in line with the expectations. Real Selling too. 

Bears eyeing a Target of 61.40 level on down side. Looks over ambitious too. If you look at Negative Global Cues then this target may be possible. 
On Positive Side, if Start Recovers then expect a jump up to 83.20 level and have caution. Huge risk too.

JSWSTEEL FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
JSW Steel held an analyst meet to discuss quarterly and yearly results and future growth plans. Seshagiri Rao, Director (Finance) addressed the analyst meet.  
Highlights of the Meet  

The share of exports during the quarter and year under review was 12% and 16% respectively (corresponding quarter and year last year - 17% and 28% respectively). 

The number of JSW Shoppe outlets went up to 174 and retail sales for the current fiscal,

through JSW Shoppe accounted for 16% of domestic sales, excluding semis. 
The consolidated net long term gearing reduced to 1.49 from 1.79. 

The company has successfully commissioned the Phase I (3.5 Mtpa) of the state of the art largest and widest new Hot Strip Mill at Vijaynagar on March 28, 2010.  

After successful trial operations, the mill has commenced commercial production on April 10, 2010 and it would enable the company to convert all slabs into value added HR Coils, on its stabilization. On completion of Phase II, the capacity of mill will go up to 5 Mtpa. 

The expansion project execution work is progressing in full swing to expand the crude steel capacity to 10 Mtpa and to set up 300 MW power plant at Vijaynagar works, to be commissioned in FY 2011 and FY 2012 respectively. 

The company identified certain coking coal assets in USA along with Railway Load out and barge facility and is close to finalizing an acquisition of the mine at cost of upto US$ 100 million, wherein the likely resources is around 123 million tonnes (mt). One mine is operational and others to be operational over 24 months. 
The company expects initial production of 1 mt in first year which can be ramped up to 3 mt by 3rd year. The first year of production is expected to be from Sept-Oct 2010. Additional capex is expected to be US$ 60-100 million for ramping up. The FOB cash costs for the same is estimated at around US$ 85-110 per tonne. 

The Board has approved issuance of warrants to promoters to 17.5 million (9.4% of existing share capital). The total equity infusion is likely to be around Rs 2100 crore. This is largely done to strengthen the balance sheet and fund the projects in West Bengal and Jharkhand. 
 
Technicals: JSWSTEEL FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
Real Selling taken in place in last 5 Trading Days. 
Bears eyeing a Target of 1017.10 level on down side. Looks over ambitious. But look at

Negative Global Cues and this target may be possible. 

On Positive Side, if Start Recovers, then expect a jump up to 1254.90 level and have caution. Huge risk too.

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION 
It went up on yesterday & in line with the expectations. Real Buying too. 

Bulls eyeing a Target of 204.85 level on upper side. Looks over ambitious & look at

Negative Global Cues. 
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 90.05 level and have caution. Huge risk too.

ICICIBANK 940 PUT OPTION 
It went up on yesterday & in line with the expectations. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged. 
Bulls eyeing a Target of 67.40 level on upper side. Looks over ambitious too. If you look at Negative Global Cues then this target may be possible. 
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts, then expect a slide up to 28.60 level and have caution.

Equity:
TATASTEEL (NSE Cash) 
Metals witnessed selling pressure following sell-off in global metal companies' shares post Australia imposing 40 per cent tax on mining companies. 
Technicals: TATASTEEL (NSE Cash) 
This scrip went down on yesterday, in line with the expectations. Real Selling too. 

If fall continues, then it can tumble up to 512.45 level by non-stop. Looks over ambitious, but look at Negative Global Cues too. 
On Positive Side, if Start Recovers, then expect a jump up to 629.85 level and have caution. Huge risk too.

PATNI (NSE Cash) 
Japan's leading information technology services and solutions provider, NTT Data

Corporation is in advanced talks with the promoters of Patni Computer to buy their combined 46.5% stake. 
Technicals: 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise. Do not get excited too & Bulls rigged. 
Bull's eyeing a Target of 581.70 level on upper side. That is what technicals indicating.

Limited up side from current levels and have caution. 
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 530.05 level and have caution.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDate Buy ValueSell Value Net Value
FII 04-May-20102753.83 2783.51-29.68
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
DII04-May-2010 858.581296.66 -438.08
INVESTMENT VIEW
C&C inks pact with Isolux Corsan 
The scope of this contract extends to several verticals in which the Company has domain expertise and in geographically diverse regions including Asia, former Soviet Bloc (excluding Eastern European countries) and Africa

C & C Constructions Limited, a leading infrastructure project development company, has signed a MOU with Isolux Corsan of Spain to jointly execute construction contracts in the Infrastructure space. The scope of this contract extends to several verticals in which the Company has domain expertise and in geographically diverse regions including Asia, former Soviet Bloc (excluding Eastern European countries) and Africa. As per the MOU, the Company will only engage in contracts exceeding Rs. 500 crore in verticals of Roads, Airports, Specialized Buildings and Hospitals. Further, the Company will also participate in contracts exceeding Rs. 300 crore relating to construction of bridges. Commenting on the development, Gurjeet Singh Johar, Chairman, C & C Constructions Ltd., said:

 

"The MOU presents the Company with abundant opportunities and is in line with our objective of diversifying operations across verticals and expanding our geographical reach. Given C&C's specialized skill set of operating in traditionally challenging terrain, the Company is well equipped to sustain projects in chosen verticals and geographies. We are optimistic of partnering with Isolux to extract maximum synergies and fundamentally strengthen and grow the Company's business operations" 
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."
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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381