Market outlook for 23.01.09

Headlines for the day

   Corporate News Headline

   Reliance Industries reported weak Q3'09 results; total revenue decreased 8.75% yoy to Rs. 315.63 bn and net profit excluding exceptional items, fell 9.8% to Rs. 35.01 bn. (ET)

   Ranbaxy Laboratories reported weak Q4'08 results; total revenue increased 6.4% yoy to Rs. 19.1 bn, however, it posted a net loss of Rs. 6.8 bn as against a profit of Rs. 1.88 bn during the same quarter last year. (ET)

   Ashok Leyland has bagged an order from Delhi Transport Corporation for supplying 875 ultra-low entry CNG buses, worth Rs. 4.8 bn crore and is accompanied by a Rs. 7.1 bn crore maintenance contract for 12 years. (ET)

   Economic and Political Headline

   Inflation increased to 5.6% for the week ended January 10, 2009, due to higher prices of edible items such as fruits and vegetables. (BS)

   The US government data revealed that the home prices in November declined 8.7% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since 1991. Housing starts, fell 16% in December to an annual rate of 550,000. In addition, initial jobless claims increased by 62,000 to 589,000 in the week ended January 17, 2009. (Bloomberg)

   European industrial orders fell by 26% yoy, the most on record in November as the recession curtailed manufacturers' demand for new machines and equipment. (Bloomberg)

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

 Below 2680 level, expect profit booking up to 2671-2673 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2648-2650 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 2702 & 2715 levels. Above these levels, rally may continue up to 2722-2724 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2745-2747 zone.

Above 2752-2754 zone, it can zoom up to 2774-2776 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 2641-2643 zone. Stop Loss at 2619-2621 zone.

 

 

Short-Term Investors:

Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

 

BSE SENSEX  

False signal is likely. Technically recovery should continue.

 

Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 8060 level on down side.

On Positive Side, short rallies up to 9072 level can be used to exit. Maintain a Stop Loss at 9409 level for your short positions

 

Trading Calls 23rd Jan 2009

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Buy GDL-74.95 for 80 with sl 73

Buy Natioalumn-198 for 205 with sl 195

Short JPHydro-30 for 27 with sl 31

Short Relcapital-392 for 374 with sl 400

Short Albk-52 for 47 with sl 53.50

-ve to Market : 1. Continous selling by FII 2. DII selling 3. Expected slowdown/Q3Results 4. Rs.Vs$ 5. Sentiment 6. There is no delivery based buying by investors 7. Asian Market (Mixed) 8. US Market 9.SGX Nifty

 

Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:

Naukri, Neyveli, Nation Alum, Polaris, Ultra Cem, Balram Chin, GMR Infra, HPCL & BEL.

And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:

J Stainless, DLF, Aban, Punj Lloyd, IVRCL Infra, Roltas, Zee, Nagar Const, BRFL & TVS Motors.
 Nifty is in Down Trend.

 

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,122.80. Down by 105.30 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 827.50. Down by 12.74 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,465.49. Down by 41.58 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 49.13/16 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Wednesday's close of 49.11/13.

 

FMCG INDEX Stocks May Fall

 

	2713.80	( 0.28 %)	7.65
		1	2	3
Resistance		2765.57	2824.98	2862.67
Support		2668.47	2630.78	2571.37

	8813.84		( 0.39 %)	34.67
			1	2	3
Resistance			8975.34	9171.52	9291.72
Support			8658.96	8538.76	8342.58

 

 

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	22-Jan-2009	1232.91	1537.36	-304.45

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	22-Jan-2009	671.53	667.57	3.96

 

--

Arvind Parekh

+ 91 98432 32381