BUY RPL-125 for a target 129-131 stop loss 122
BUY IndianBnk-137 for a target 141 stop loss 135
BUY IndusInd-89 for a target 94 loss 187
BUY IFCI-53 for a target 56-58 stop loss 51
BUY GDL-108 above 111 for a target 118 stop loss 109
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Nifty is in Down Trend.
Below 4235 level, expect profit booking up to 4188-4190 zone and thereafter expect a slide up to 4143-4145 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 4258 level. Above this level, rally may continue up to 4285-4287 zone by non-stop.
Cross above 4330-4332 zone, can take it up to 4375-4377 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4098-4100 zone. Stop Loss at 4053-4055 zone.
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop.
Already SL triggered. 3 closes below 4270 level, it can tumble up to 3990 level by non-stop.
BSE SENSEX:
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.
POSITIONAL TRADERS
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.
If crosses 2066 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 2128 level.
Sell RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE (NSE Cash)
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.
If crosses 1254 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 1292 level.
Sell HOUSING DEV & INFRA (NSE Cash)
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.
If crosses 232 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 238 level.
Sell IFCI FUTURES (NSE)
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.
If crosses 55 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 57 level.
Sell JAIPRAKASH HYDRO-POWER FUTURES (NSE)
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,322.91. Down by 16.10 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 895.10. Up by 2.06 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,764.92. Down by 1.27 points.
The partially convertible rupee ended at Rs48.53/55 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than its previous close of Rs48.62/63.
FII DATA
| FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| FII | 23-Jun-2009 | 1917.65 | 2572.62 | -654.97 |
| DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| DII | 23-Jun-2009 | 1701.44 | 1383.02 | 318.42 |
DELIVERY
IVRCL Infra: Why The Negative Cash Flow?
Sell
A handful of stocks doubled in the 2 historical days post the Election Results of May 2009, IVRCL Infra was one of them. Clear identification with the State Government, a huge order-book that critically banks upon Road and Water Infra projects handed out by it's home state were the two reasons for this extraordinary surge in share price.
But the large order book of IVRCL Infra is no longer bringing in incrementally large margins, instead they under-score the fact that Bankrupt State Governments can dole out contracts, but do not have the armoury to pay for these projects.
Unlike the Central Government, State entities cannot print cash-hence negative cash flows, increasing size of Receivables and Borrowings is happening at IVRCL.
Something has gotta give-the IVRCL Infra stock is getting a PE of 17 based upon the estimated EPS for FY10. This is double the PE from just a month ago. The stock should ideally quote in the Rs 175 to Rs 200 range.
Continues to focus on its key vertical of water supply and irrigation
IVRCL Infrastructures and Projects (IVRCL) saw 70% of its order inflow in FY09, coming from the core segments of irrigation and water supply. It also has over one-third of its order backlog concentrated in the state of Andhra Pradesh. Management has indicated that the water segment will continue to be a key focus area and expects its project pipeline to pick up soon, post the lull due to elections. The new government is expected to focus on the social sector and this likely means increased spending on water and irrigation, which augurs well for IVRCL.
Earnings growth slow, lower tax rate could swing the numbers
IVRCL's EPS is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15 per cent over FY09–11E, which is lower than expected sales growth CAGR of 25 per cent during the same period. This is due to an effective tax rate of 33 per cent being factored in (17.5% in FY09 and 25.6% in FY08). IVRCL continues to take benefit of Section 80 IA based on legal opinion when providing for the full tax rate would be more prudent.
Negative cash flows is a worrying factor, maintain Sell
The working capital cycle has consistently expanded from 69 days in FY04 to 143 days in FY09P. This has led to significant negative operating cash flow and, eventually, to multiple equity dilutions and a leveraged balance sheet. A further increase in Working Capital requirements would mean increased funding needs and would impact growth.
Sell.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
