Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Market Outlook 17th Aug 2010

  Corporate News Headline
Lanco Infratech reported a whopping 68% jump in its profit after taxes, at Rs. 1.95 bn for the quarter ended June 30. The company posted a profit after tax of Rs. 1.16 bn in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal. (BS)
State Bank of India said it had raised its benchmark prime lending rate by 50 basis points to 12.25% effective Tuesday. (BS)
Tata Motors Ltd said its global vehicle sales in July rose 36% from a year earlier to 90,646 units. Jaguar and Land Rover sales in the month rose 30% to 19,386 units. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
India's annual headline inflation slowed more sharply than expected to single digits after five months. The wholesale price index rose 9.97% from a year earlier. Data showed annual food inflation rate fell to 10.29% in July from 14.60% in the prior month, with prices of vegetables and sugar falling on the month. Manufacturing inflation cooled to 6.15% from 6.66% a month ago. Fuel inflation eased to 14.29% in the same month from 14.32% in June, on a high statistical base. (BS)
Builders in the US unexpectedly turned pessimistic in August, a sign the expiration of a government tax credit will keep depressing home construction. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index dropped to 13 this month, the lowest level since March 2009, from 14 in July, data from the group showed. (Bloomberg)
Japan's economy grew at less than a fifth of the pace economists estimated last quarter, pushing it into third place behind the US and China and adding to evidence the global recovery is faltering. Gross domestic product rose an annualized 0.4% in the three months ended June 30, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo. (Bloomberg)

Strong Stocks
This is list of 10 Strong Stocks: 
UCO Bank, Cummins India, Allahabad Bank, Tata Motors, Orient Bank, Tata Comm, Tata Chem, Bank Of India, SBIN & Andhra Bank. .
Weak Stocks
This is the list of 10 Weak Stocks:
RNRL, Sesa Goa, Suzlon, RCOM, Punj Lloyd, Nagar Const, Rel Infra, R Power, Cipla & EKC.
Daily trend of the market is up 
Market is moving in a very small range between 5350 and 5500. A break either side will give further direction to the market. So it is better to remain cautious. And as the trend is still up, the readers who had created long positions in Nifty on 15th June may go on holding the longs.

  • Supp / Resis SPOT/ CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY TRADING
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 5456.575494.83 5524.42
Support 5388.725359.13 5320.87
Sensex Resistance 18170.65 18290.51 18377.11
Support 17964.19 17877.59 17757.73

SPOT / CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY TRADING
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
Allahabad Bank NSE 217.80 222.25 211.45 226.70 205.10 233.05 200.65
Andhra Bank NSE 157.50 160.17 153.17 162.83 148.83 167.17 146.17
Bank of Baroda NSE 785.25 795.27 770.92 805.28 756.58 819.62 746.57
Bank of India NSE 464.35 468.33 459.73 472.32 455.12 476.93 451.13
Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1073.60 1083.20 1068.80 1092.80 1064.00 1097.60 1054.40
Cipla Ltd. NSE 304.00 313.80 298.35 323.60 292.70 329.25 282.90
Cummins India Ltd. NSE 715.10 730.40 687.40 745.70 659.70 773.40 644.40
Everest Kanto Cylinder Ltd. NSE 117.60 119.43 116.38 121.27 115.17 122.48 113.33
Everonn Education Ltd. NSE 597.55 611.47 585.07 625.38 572.58 637.87 558.67
Nagarjuna Construction Co. Ltd. NSE 160.55 162.92 158.67 165.28 156.78 167.17 154.42
Nagarjuna Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. NSE 30.85 31.25 30.30 31.65 29.75 32.20 29.35
NSE Index NSE 5418.30 5456.57 5388.72 5494.83 5359.13 5524.42 5320.87
Oriental Bank of Commerce NSE 430.45 437.97 418.87 445.48 407.28 457.07 399.77
Punj Lloyd Ltd. NSE 115.70 117.75 114.40 119.80 113.10 121.10 111.05
Punjab National Bank NSE 1170.85 1189.57 1142.57 1208.28 1114.28 1236.57 1095.57
Reliance Capital Ltd. NSE 747.60 761.13 739.53 774.67 731.47 782.73 717.93
Reliance Communications Ltd. NSE 163.65 167.17 159.92 170.68 156.18 174.42 152.67
Reliance Industries Ltd. NSE 976.90 987.53 970.63 998.17 964.37 1004.43 953.73
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 1046.80 1078.70 1025.45 1110.60 1004.10 1131.95 972.20
Reliance Natural Resources Ltd. NSE 37.80 38.57 37.37 39.33 36.93 39.77 36.17
Reliance Power Ltd. NSE 152.50 155.35 150.70 158.20 148.90 160.00 146.05
Sesa Goa Ltd. NSE 322.00 345.43 309.13 368.87 296.27 381.73 272.83
State Bank of India NSE 2821.40 2847.48 2802.43 2873.57 2783.47 2892.53 2757.38
Suzlon Energy Ltd. NSE 52.35 54.92 50.22 57.48 48.08 59.62 45.52
Tata Coffee Ltd. NSE 465.30 487.00 440.60 508.70 415.90 533.40 394.20
Tata Communications Ltd. NSE 322.85 331.38 317.33 339.92 311.82 345.43 303.28
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. NSE 854.10 861.50 847.75 868.90 841.40 875.25 834.00
Tata Motors Ltd. NSE 1001.35 1018.43 988.48 1035.52 975.62 1048.38 958.53
Tata Power Company Ltd. NSE 1315.10 1322.32 1309.57 1329.53 1304.03 1335.07 1296.82
Tata Steel Ltd. NSE 517.80 531.43 509.58 545.07 501.37 553.28 487.73
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. NSE 24.75 25.42 24.07 26.08 23.38 26.77 22.72
UCO Bank NSE 107.70 109.87 104.07 112.03 100.43 115.67 98.27
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Monday, August 16, 2010 4:04:09 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 

Jaihind Projects Ltd. (JPL), incorporated in 1985, is a growing EPC player mainly focusing on hydrocarbons, water and infrastructure segments. The Company has vast experience in the pipeline construction segment and has laid more than 14,000 kms of pipeline of which more than 5000 kms of pipeline is in the oil and gas space. The Company also has experience in city gas distribution projects. 
  
Healthy order-book position:  JPL has a healthy order-book position of ~Rs. 750 Crs, which is ~1.8 x FY10 revenue, thus providing strong revenue visibility over the next few years. These orders are executable over a period of 18-24 months.  Of the total order-book position, ~47% is from Water segment while ~40% is from Hydrocarbon segment.  Apart from above, the Company also has L1 position contracts worth Rs. 60 Crs and its outstanding bids are to the tune of almost Rs. 800 Crs.  Also the Company would be bidding for Rs.1000 Crs pipeline project between Dabhol – Bangalore.   
  
Huge fleet size:  JPL has one of the largest pipeline equipment fleets in the country and has over the years invested a sizable amount in building up its equipment fleet comprising of key equipments like large cranes, excavators, HDD (Horizontal Directional Drilling) machines etc.  Currently the Company has 5 spreads of equipments translating into a capacity to execute 750 km of pipeline construction projects.  Owning such a large equipment fleet not only gives JPL an edge over other players but also enables timely execution of contracts. Also sizable equipment base is a pre-requisite for participation in tenders. 
  
Strong Clientele base: JPL has an impressive clientele list and has executed projects for GAIL, ONGC, HPCL, IOCL, BPCL, Reliance, Cairn Energy, GSPL, Mahanagar Gas, Adani etc. The Company caters to both, government and private sector and has set high standards in meeting the special needs and demands of every project.

Technicals: Daily Chart not looking good & Trend should be choppy. Buy for 5 days. SL at 260.95. Target at 322.95.


  US and European markets
Index Latest 1D Chg YTD
Nasdaq 1821.51 0.15% (2.09)%
DJIA 10302.01 (0.01)% (1.21)%
S&P 500 1079.38 0.01% (3.20)%
Most US stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ending a four-day slump, as technology companies helped the market overcome an earlier slide driven by concern about an economic slowdown. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 added 0.15% and 0.01%, respectively, while Dow Jones fell 0.01%. EBay Inc. gained 2.6% on speculation its PayPal service will be used by Google Inc.'s smartphone. Newmont Mining Corp. climbed 1.8% as gold prices jumped to a six-week high. Washington Post Co. and Corinthian Colleges Inc. sank at least 8.1% on concern they will lose access to federal financial-aid programs.
Index Latest 1D Chg YTD
FTSE 100 5276.10 0.01% (2.53)%
CAC 40 3597.60 (0.37)% (8.61)%
UK stocks closed little changed as slower-than-forecast economic growth in Japan increased concern among investors that the global recovery is faltering. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.66 points or 0.01% at 5,276.10. BP Plc sank 1.6 as the energy company delayed its relief well amid the risk of a new oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. Cairn Energy Plc surged 5.3% after Vedanta Resources Plc agreed to buy 60% of the company's Indian oil unit.
Buy / Sell (Aug 16, 2010)
 BuySell Net
FII2753.662353.65 + 400.01
DII1168.441602.35 - 433.91


Market Snapshot
 13-Aug 06-Aug
Nifty

5,452.10

5,439.25

Sensex

18,167.03

18,143.99

NSE F&O Turnover (Rs. Cr)

94,861.02

60,455.50

PC Ratio

1.03

0.94

India VIX

16.74

17.37


 

Weekly Open Interest Gainers
Stocks% Change in
OI
% Change in Price

PATELENG

63.37

-1.26

NEYVELILIG

56.09

5.52

PTC

44.62

-0.78

EDUCOMP

42.78

-4.67

TATAMOTORS

42.76

13.39




Weekly Open Interest Losers
Stocks% Change in
OI
% Change in Price

PFC

-20.45

3.70

CROMPGREAV

-20.27

2.15

IFCI

-19.86

3.48

GESHIP

-19.15

-0.10

INDIAINFO

-18.94

2.87


Technical Outlook

On 15 Minute intraday chart Nifty has formed ascending triangle pattern which is bullish breakout pattern if upper trend line breaks then Nifty could surge to new 52 week high and can test 5,540-5,560 mark else probability of correction upto 5,325 (50 Day SMA) level cannot rule out. Momentum technical indicators are currently giving mix signals. On end-of-day chart stochastic and RSI are currently trading in neutral territory on the brink of showing positive divergence suggesting an upward move but another momentum technical indicator MACD is currently trading in positive zone on the brink of showing negative divergence indicating correction.

Derivative Outlook

Nifty ended on positive note at 5,452.10 marks gaining 0.24% during the week. The Nifty August futures ended at 5,458.35 (LTP) with a premium of 6.25 points. If we look at the derivatives data we could see that Nifty future prices ended in the positive territory along with incline in open interest as well a incline in the cost of carry, this is an indication of long  position is being built up at lower level and Nifty may take upside of 100 points in coming week. Nifty may face resistance at higher levels of 5,520 to 5,550 whereas on the downside support is seen at 5,300-5,350.

Sector-wise Outlook

This week, buying is expected in IT. Power, FMCG and Pharma sectors from lower supports of 5,400 levels. Short positions can be accumulated in Banking, Realty and Consumer Durable stocks if the Nifty fails to sustain above 5,400 levels.


Derivative Strategies for the week:

Long Nifty August 5500 Put Option and Simultaneously Short 5400 Put Option 
CMP:5,452.10
View:Negative
Strategy:Bear Spread
Market Lot: 50
Long RCOM August 170 Put Option and Simultaneously Short 160 Put Option
CMP:168.10
View:Negative
Strategy:

Bear Spread

Market Lot:2,000


*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report.
-- 
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381