Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Market Outlook 3rd Nov 2010

  • Supp / ResisSPOT/CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 6138.386159.22 6186.03
Support 6090.736063.92 6043.08
Sensex Resistance 20554.49 20753.34 20897.04
Support 20211.94 20068.24 19869.39

Scripts to watch today : Bhel, DLF, HCLTech, HeroHonda, Infosys, Kotak Bank, SBI, PNB, Maruti, Rcom, RelCap, RelInfra, TataMotors, TataPower, Tisco, Wipro

 Tip for the day
 
 

ORIENTBANK (BUY)

  • RSI is on the brink of entering into overbought territory from neutral, showing positive crossover indicating uptrend.
  • Stochastic is at 74, on the verge of entering into overbought territory, showing positive crossover, also indicating upside.
  • MACD is trading in positive zone, showing bullish crossover indicating continuation of uptrend.
CMPBuy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

528.40

BUY

536/540/544

 520

514/548

UNICHEMLAB (BUY)

  • RSI has just entered into overbought territory from neutral, showing positive crossover, indicating continuation of uptrend.
  • Stochastic is at 64, showing positive crossover, moving upward also indicating upside.
  • MACD is trading in positive zone, on the brink of showing bullish crossover, also indicating continuation of uptrend.
  • Expecting sharp upside if level of 236 breaches decisively.
CMP Buy/SellTarget Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance

230.90

BUY

233/237/239

227

227/242

DLF (SELL)

  • RSI is at 41, on the verge of entering into oversold territory, showing negative crossover indicating correction.
  • Stochastic is at 37, moving in neutral territory, showing positive crossover, indicating limited downside.
  • MACD is trading in negative zone, showing bearish crossover indicating continuation of downtrend.
  • Expecting wide correction if level of 342 breaches decisively.
CMP Buy/SellTarget Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance

349.20

SELL

344/340/334

356

330/362

 
 
Market Outlook
 
 Yesterday, Nifty ended on a flat note as market not reacted much on the RBI rate hike news. Today, Nifty is expected to trade in the range with its resistance at 6,150-6,180 level on upside, breaking above this could take Nifty to 6,200-6,220 mark, while falling below 6,080 level Nifty could find support at 6,025. Indian market is likely to open on a positive note following positive cues from global markets ahead of election results in US and as the Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting that is expected to result in a decision to stimulate the economy. Buying could be seen in Oil & Gas, CD and Banking stocks. Further, investors will eye on earning results of Auropharma, GAIL, Oriental Bank, CESC.



Strong & Weak  Stocks for 3rd Nov 2010
This is list of 10 strong stocks:  
ABG Ship, Alok Ind, SRE Infra, Dena Bank, Titan, Adanient, GE Ship, Canara Bank, Federal Bank & MLL. 
And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 
Finan Tech, STR Tech, Apollo Tyre, Sail, BRFL, Educomp, LITL, Orbit Corp, OnMobile & Idea.
The daily trend of nifty is in Downtrend 

SPOT/CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY TRADING
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
ABG Shipyard Ltd. NSE 477.40 486.55 467.60 495.70 457.80 505.50 448.65
Alok Industries Ltd. NSE 29.05 29.52 28.52 29.98 27.98 30.52 27.52
Apollo Tyres Ltd. NSE 70.80 71.97 69.72 73.13 68.63 74.22 67.47
Bank of Baroda NSE 1025.70 1034.08 1017.63 1042.47 1009.57 1050.53 1001.18
Bank of India NSE 508.05 514.60 498.75 521.15 489.45 530.45 482.90
Bank of Maharashtra NSE 79.40 80.55 78.40 81.70 77.40 82.70 76.25
Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1292.75 1301.48 1276.53 1310.22 1260.32 1326.43 1251.58
Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company Ltd. NSE 619.10 626.63 613.83 634.17 608.57 639.43 601.03
Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd. NSE 224.65 227.83 219.43 231.02 214.22 236.23 211.03
Canara Bank NSE 741.00 757.65 730.50 774.30 720.00 784.80 703.35
Dena Bank NSE 141.70 145.23 138.73 148.77 135.77 151.73 132.23
Educomp Solutions Ltd. NSE 548.85 554.77 540.57 560.68 532.28 568.97 526.37
Federal Bank Ltd. NSE 494.65 502.28 485.63 509.92 476.62 518.93 468.98
Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. NSE 1023.25 1044.97 991.27 1066.68 959.28 1098.67 937.57
Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd. NSE 362.05 381.30 329.90 400.55 297.75 432.70 278.50
Great Offshore Ltd. NSE 388.30 398.57 375.47 408.83 362.63 421.67 352.37
Greaves Cotton Ltd. NSE 470.05 475.13 465.48 480.22 460.92 484.78 455.83
Greenply Industries Ltd. NSE 191.20 193.77 189.32 196.33 187.43 198.22 184.87
Idea Cellular Ltd. NSE 67.20 68.45 66.45 69.70 65.70 70.45 64.45
Lanco Infratech Ltd. NSE 63.15 63.87 62.52 64.58 61.88 65.22 61.17
Mercator Lines Ltd. NSE 70.95 73.23 67.18 75.52 63.42 79.28 61.13
Merck Ltd. NSE 797.50 827.30 764.40 857.10 731.30 890.20 701.50
NSE Index NSE 6119.00 6139.93 6096.23 6160.87 6073.47 6183.63 6052.53
OnMobile Global Ltd. NSE 330.75 335.43 327.13 340.12 323.52 343.73 318.83
Orbit Corporation Ltd. NSE 115.95 119.00 113.80 122.05 111.65 124.20 108.60
SREI Infrastructure Finance Ltd. NSE 135.25 138.62 131.57 141.98 127.88 145.67 124.52
Strides Arcolab Ltd. NSE 432.35 435.93 427.83 439.52 423.32 444.03 419.73
Titan Industries Ltd. NSE 3818.70 3868.13 3778.13 3917.57 3737.57 3958.13 3688.13
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Tuesday, November 02, 2010 4:04:13 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 

Watch these stocks on 3rd Nov

RCF,
Varun shipping,
Power Finance corp (PFC),
Eicher Motors 
can be a good buy on 3rd Nov

Derivatives EOD report on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/derivative-strategy/derivative-EOD-02-Nov-2010.htm

US markets
 
 US markets gained on the back of upbeat quarterly earnings reports and firmer commodity prices ahead of election results. Optimism about prospective Republican gains contributed to the strength in the markets. Financial stocks gained after MasterCard and Radian Group posted upbeat quarterly earnings. MasterCard reported an upbeat third-quarter profit that grew 15% yoy as consumers and businesses spent more with the global economy continuing to improve. MasterCard said third-quarter profit was USD 518 million, or USD 3.94 a share, compared with USD 452 million, or USD 3.45 a share, in the year-ago period. Meanwhile, mortgage insurer, Radian reported a net income of USD 112.19 million, or 84 cents per share, compared to a loss of USD 70.45 million, or 86 cents per share a year ago. A change in the fair value of derivatives was the main factor in the swing. Material stocks gained after commodity prices rose as the dollar fell ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated quantitative easing announcement and US voters headed to the polls.  
 
    European markets
 
 European stocks gained on the back of positive economic data and as BP Plc managed to reverse a second-quarter loss. Investors cheered the data of manufacturing activity in the euro zone that improved more than initially estimated in October. The Purchasing Managers' Index for October rose to 54.6 in October from September's eight-month low of 53.7. Meantime, Germany's manufacturing sector expanded again in October, largely helped by strong new orders. Further, positive sentiments were generated after BP managed to report a profit on sequential basis. The oil major reported a 66% yoy fall profit after taking a further pre-tax charge of USD 7.7 billion related to the Gulf of Mexico well disaster, but this nonetheless marked a reversal from the USD 17 billion loss registered on a sequential basis. Third-quarter net income dropped to USD 1.8 billion from USD 5.3 billion in the year-earlier period.  
 
    Indian markets (Prev Day)
 
 Indian markets reacted mixed on RBI's second quarter credit policy review. Domestic markets opened on a flat note amid mixed cues from the global markets. However, soon after opening, markets turned volatile as investors were cautious and kept eyes on selective stocks ahead of the RBI credit policy to be announced later today. Among the BSE sectoral indices, buying interest emerged across Consumer Durables, Capital Goods, FMCG, Power and PSU counters, while selling pressure has seen across Realty, Metal, Auto, Banking and IT. Further, with the release of credit policy review markets turned directionless as the reaction were mixed after RBI increased the repo and reverse repo rate by 25 bps. Though, markets surge in the early afternoon, selling pressure in Oil & Gas, Power and PSU stocks at higher level drag the markets into negative. Realty and Auto space were the major dragger of the markets. The tightening of norms for home loans pulled realty index down as RBI has increased bank provisioning for teaser loans to 2% from 0.4%. Also, the loan-to-value ratio of housing loans has been lowered to 80%. However, Banking index was less impacted as the step taken was in right direction. In the last trading hour, firm cues from the European peers helped the markets to recover from day's low to end the volatile session on a flat note. At the end, Sensex closed at 20,345.69 down by 9.94 points. It touched an intraday high of 20,418.35 and low of 20,281.73. Nifty ended at 6,119.00 up by 1.45 points. It made a high/low of 6,138.10 and 6,094.40 respectively.  
 
IndexLatest1 D Chg(%)YTD(%)
NSE Index (02 Nov 2010) 6119.00 0.02 17.65
Sensex (02 Nov 2010) 20345.69 -0.05 16.50
Dow Jones Ind. .. (02 Nov 2010) 11188.72 0.58 7.29
Nasdaq Composit.. (02 Nov 2010) 2533.52 1.14 11.65
Hang Seng (02 Nov 2010) 23671.42 0.08 8.22
Straits Times (02 Nov 2010) 3205.28 0.41 10.62
FTSE 100 (02 Nov 2010) 5757.43 1.10 6.36
CAC 40 (02 Nov 2010) 3865.72 0.64 -1.79
SectorsClose1D Chg(%)
BSE IT 6072.98 0.62
BSEPSU 10262.28 0.40
OILGAS 10900.26 -0.80
Advance Decline RatioValue(in Cr.)Exchange
0.76 873.26 SENSEX
1.00 6078.37 NIFTY
   SENSEX    NIFTY
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
ACC Ltd. 1056.95 4.20 21.28
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2133.25 2.53 27.02
Wipro Ltd. 434.00 2.49 6.47
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
ACC Ltd. 1061.85 4.73 21.71
Ambuja Cements Ltd. 148.25 3.89 42.21
ABB Ltd. 864.10 2.55 12.65
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
DLF Ltd. 349.10 -3.28 -3.34
Cipla Ltd. 350.75 -1.78 4.51
Reliance Industries Ltd. 1074.35 -1.72 -1.38
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
Unitech Ltd. 86.25 -3.36 4.80
DLF Ltd. 349.20 -3.35 -3.32
Suzlon Energy Ltd. 56.65 -3.08 -37.30
Top

Most Active Stocks by value (in Cr)

BSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
SBI 3195.80 0.19 120.94 376912
ICICI Bank 1231.00 -0.04 100.91 822950
L&T 2080.65 2.53 92.46 435660
RIL 1093.10 -1.72 84.43 782103
Tata Motors 1170.35 -1.41 73.47 632581
 
NSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
ICICI Bank 1232.00 -0.05 561.08 4578468
RIL 1093.20 -1.68 501.93 4654108
L&T 2084.05 2.36 444.83 2097358
SBI 3198.45 0.11 415.44 1294875
Tata Steel 591.90 1.21 361.07 6050590
 
Strike Price Value Price %Chg
   Most Active Calls by Contract Value (in Cr)
   Most Active Puts by Contract Value (in Cr)
   Most Active Future by Contracts Value (in Cr)
    Commodities
 
 Crude oil rose to a six-month high at USD 83.90 after the dollar fell and U.S. stocks rallied on expectations the Federal Reserve will take measures to spur the economy. Gold prices rose for the third time in four days to USD 1,356.90 an ounce as the dollar retreated ahead of the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's hotly anticipated policy meeting due on Wednesday.  
 
    International News
 
 
  • Growth in Germany's manufacturing sector accelerated in October quickening slightly after the pace of expansion cooled in the previous two months. Final data showed the Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 56.6 in October from 55.1 in September. (Action Forex)
  • The monetary base in Japan jumped 6.4% in October from a year earlier, rising for the 26th successive month from 5.8% logged in the previous month. The average daily balance of the monetary base stood at 98.82 trillion yen (1.22 trillion U.S. dollars), with the current account deposit balance surging 38.0% year-on-year. (Google News)
  • MasterCard Inc increased use of credit and debit cards overseas helped lift its third-quarter profit by 15%. The payments processor recorded a net income of USD 518 million for the three months ended Sept. 30, compared with USD 452 million in the year-ago quarter. (Economic Times)
 
 
    Domestic News
 
 
  • The RBI raised interest rates for the sixth time this year to battle stubborn inflation that remains well above its comfort zone of 5-6%. The RBI hiked repo rate by 25bps (at which it lends to commercial banks) to 6.25% and the reverse repo rate by 25bps (which it pays to banks for deposits) to 5.25%. (Economic Times)
  • State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation plans to invest over USD 10 billion in bringing to production gas discoveries off the east coast, its Director (Exploration) D K Pande has said. (Economic Times)
  • Drug firm Lupin has said it has been granted final approval by the United states Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for antihistamine Desloratadine tablets, used for treating allergies. (Economic Times)
 
 
CurrencyExchange-Rate1D Chg(%)1M Chg(%)
EUR 61.92 -0.39 % 0.18 %
GBP 71.37 -0.05 % 0.63 %
USD 44.43 0.02 % -0.25 %
FIIs ActivityRs. Cr.MTDYTD
Equity in flows 7662.80 11125.80 625317.80
Equity Out flows 2145.20 4644.30 505913.50
Net 5517.60 6481.50 119404.40

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
FII02-Nov-2010 3334.472873.59 460.88

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDate Buy ValueSell Value Net Value
DII 02-Nov-20101161.49 1363.73-202.24

*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES. 

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381