Wednesday, September 24, 2008

FII DATA
FII
24/09: -494.40 Cr. (Prov)
DII
24/09: 170.18 Cr. (Prov)
Positional
BOOK 50% PROFITS IN INFOSYS,TCS TODAY ITSELF AND CARRY 50%.
CARRY ALL OTHER SHORTS AND NIFTY PUTS.
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NIFTY FUT: Unwinding should continue up to 4120.65-4122.65 zone. Rallies up to 4200.30 can be used to exit. SL at 4253.95-4255.95 zone.
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NIFTY FUT: SL triggered. Unwinding should continue up to 4162.40-4164.40 zone. Rallies up to 4200.30 can be used to exit. SL at 4253.95-4255.95 zone.
US financial bailout package to hit Indian economy
New Delhi: The US Congress will meet on Tuesday to decide on the financial bailout package proposal aimed at cleaning up the financial mess on the Wall Street.The final price for US tax payers is expected to be around $1.8 trillion.The price tag so far is $900 billion dollars and $700 billion more is needed but that may not come easy with the US Congress yet to take a vote and American citizens asking why they should pay more for Wall Street's mess.But US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is optimistic that this may be the silver bullet that could fix the US financial system."Well, what I would say is, I won't bet against the American people. We are an entrepreneurial people, a hard-working people and we will work through this, we always do. I wouldn't bet against the American people and I wouldn't bet against the long-term fundamentals of this country. But this is a humbling experience to see such fragility in capital markets and to ask how did we ever get here," Paulson says.Meanwhile, it is bailout season in the US. American International Group, Inc. (AIG) got a life support of $85 billion while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac got $200 billion. Another $300 billion went to the Federal Housing Administration.But the real question is. Is $700 billion enough to clear up the mess? And what are the implications for the US economy?More money also means the US deficit will balloon to about $438 billion and will make the dollar weak and inflation would rise. A deflated dollar means inflated oil and commodity prices. This will hit the economy of energy dependent countries like India.Foreign investments in the form of FII and FDI will also weaken and this in turn will rattle the economy."I think liquidity is already getting tight in India and global liquidity squeeze as FIIs withdraw money from India is bound to have its impact," Uday Kotak, VC & MD, Kotak Mahindra Bank, says.So it all comes back to the US bailout package. As Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke begin their testimony in front of the US Congress , the world including India will be watching closely because as the last few weeks have shown when tremors on Wall Street has left cracks far and wide in the world economy.
Positional Traders only
HOLD YOUR SHORTS AND CARRY.
SHORT INFOSYS IF TRADES BELOW
1515,TGT 1480,1450.
SHORT
TCS BELOW 713,TGT 690,670.
CARRY ALL OLD SHORTS AND NIFTY PUTS.
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NIFTY SEPTEMBER FUTURE SUPPORTS AT 4204 4170 4153 4123 & RESISTANCE AT 4214 4256
INTRADAY
NIFTY FUT:
If uptrend continues then it will zoom up to 4253.95-4255.95 zone. Corrections up to 4204.10 can be used to buy. SL at 4176.30 level.
ONLY POSITIONAL TRADERS
CARRY ALL YOUR SHORTS AND PUTS AS OF NOW
NIFTY FUT: Buy with a Stop Loss of 4176.30 level. Target at 4212.20-4214.20 zone. BUY AT LOWER LEVELS NEAR SL for intraday
NIFTY SEPTEMBER FUTURE
SUPPORTS AT 4170 4153 4123
&
RESISTANCE AT 4214 4256
INTRADAY CALLS
Cash Market Intra-Day: Sell WIPRO (NSE Cash CMP 375.95) for Intra-Day gains. Stop Loss at 379.95 levels
Cash Market Intra-Day: Buy STER (NSE Cash CMP 472.30) for Intra-Day gains. Stop Loss at 468.30 level
Futures Segment: SYNDIBANK FUTURES (NSE CMP 68.55) may move up. Buy with a Stop Loss of 67.55 level.
Cash Market Intra-Day: Buy NAUKRI / also named as INFOEDGE (NSE Cash CMP 640.00) for Intra-Day gains. Stop Loss at 636.00 level.
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SENSEX (Pre-Market): Higher opening expected. Expected to open high at around 70-90 points higher.
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GM!!!!!!! "Opportunity is Missed By Most People Because it is Dressed in Overalls & Looks Like Work."
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Selling may continue up to 4121-4123 zone for time being.

Hurdles at 4153 & 4170 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 4212-4214 zone.

Sell if touches 4254-4256 zone. Stop Loss at 4296-4298 zone.

On Negative Side, if breaks & sustains at below 4079-4081 zone then downtrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:

Reversal (Negative) is seen. Exit on rallies.

Short-Term Upward Target at 4337-4339 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 4037-4039 zone.

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Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future:

IOB, BOB, Maruti, Mosear, Jindal Saw, PNB, HPCL, Indian Bk, BPCl & Union Bk..

And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:

Adlabs Films, Unitech, Polaris Software, KPIT, Rajesh Export, NIIT, Peninsula Land, Ranbaxy & HDIL.

Nifty is in Down Trend.





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ACC LTD (NSE Cash): Likely to Fall.

Suspicion is that yesterday's movement might be false signal too.

If breaks & sustains at below 619 level then downtrend may cottinue.

Hurdle at 655 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

TATA POWER FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Fall.

Suspicion is that yesterday's movement might be false signal too.

If breaks & sustains at below 986 level then downtrend may cottinue.

Hurdle at 1038 level.

Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,854.17. Down by 161.84 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,188.22. Down by 18.87 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,153.33. Down by 25.65 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 45.72/73 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its previous close of 45.45/46.


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Market may open with small gap up, Positional target for cash nifty 4000, Be cautious on market and longs, close below 4030 more bearish in intra as well as positional. Keep Cash nifty levels 4080 and 4047 for support and 4177-4168 for resistance.
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-ve to Market
1. US Market 2. Asian Market 3. Crude 4. Technical breakout 5. SGX nifty -56 6. Gold.
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--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381