Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Market Outlook for 17th Feb 2009

Headlines for the day 
    Corporate News Headline
    Ashok Leyland has sighted revival of demand for the commercial vehicle segment and hopes to benefit from the two stimulus packages, low interest cost, and the fall in raw material prices. (ET)
    NTPC and Nuclear Power Corporation of India have inked an MoU to incorporate a joint venture for setting up nuclear power plants. (ET)
    BHEL bagged the first installment of Rs. 1.63 bn from Madhya Pradesh Power Generating Company for carrying out major works of the multi-crore 1,200 MW thermal power project in MP. (ET)
    Economic and Political Headline
    The fiscal deficit for the current year is far higher than the initial target of 2.5%. For the year 2009-10, it is expected to be 5.5%. The revenue deficit is forecasted to increase manifold to 4.4% of the GDP during 2008-09, as against 1% estimated in the budget. For the next year, revenue deficit has been pegged at 4% of the GDP. (BS)
    The government has decided that India Infrastructure Finance Company will refinance 60% of commercial bank loans for PPP projects in critical sectors over the next eighteen months or so. (BS)
    Japan's economy shrank at an annual 12.7% pace last quarter, the most since the 1974 oil shock, as recessions in the US and the Europe triggered a record drop in exports. (Bloomberg)

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
  Below 2811 level, selling may continue up to 2771-2773 zone by non-stop.
Hurdles at 2841 & 2857 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 2895-2897 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2934-2936 zone by non-stop.
Cross above 2998-3000 zone, it can zoom up to 3036-3038 zone and those kind of oppurtunities can be used to sell. Stop Loss at 3139-3141 zone and far away too.
On Negative Side, break below 2732-2734 zone can create some panic up to 2706-2708 zone and if breaks & sustains at below this zone then downtrend may continue and have caution.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 2728 level, it can zoom up to 2942 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX   
 If starts move up then exit long positions. Bulls got trapped.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 9166 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 9725 level for your short positions too.
 
Trading Calls 17th Feb 2009
USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading
Buy GTLinfra-32 above 33 for 37 with sl 31.5[Trade]
Buy Suntv-175 above 178 for 185 with sl 175
Short Reliance-1320 for 1290 with sl 1332
Short Jindalsteel-1011 for 965 with sl 1030
 
Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:
WWIL, Renuka, Amtek Auto, Edu Comp, BEL, ACC, M&M, Maruti,Hero Honda & India Info.
And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:
GDL, EKC, Aban, Tulip, HDIL, DLF, Punj Lloyd, Wel Guj, IVR Prime & Jindal Saw.
  Nifty is in down Trend. 
 
GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
U.S.markets were closed on yesterday for the president's Day holiday.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 48.84/85 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than 48.67/68 at close on Friday.
SENSEX Stocks May Fall
 
NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   2848.50 ( -3.39 %) -99.85       
  1 2 3
Resistance 2921.43 2994.37   3035.53  
Support 2807.33 2766.17 2693.23
BSE Sensex  9305.45 ( -3.42 %) -329.29     
  1 2 3
Resistance 9535.29 9765.14 9893.23
Support 9177.35 9049.26 8819.41

 FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 16-Feb-2009 1119.75 1165.08 -45.33
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 16-Feb-2009 757.48 567.96 +189.52

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381