INTRADAY CALLS TODAY
Buy Hindzinc-788 with sl 777 for 818-823
Adlabs-354 above 360 with sl 348 and HOLD
{once traded above 360 for 5 min then only buy for huge up move}
Buy PRAJ-103 for 112 with sl 99
NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS RESISTANCE
4724
4772
4821
SUPPORT
4686
4670
4619
4571
4523
4474
Buy R SYSTEMS INTL;TODAYS WRITING PRODUCT
Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Aban Off shore, Orchid Chem, Bhushan Steel, Mphasis, Unitech Ltd, DCHL, ICSA, Ansal Infra, Orient Bank & Praj Industry.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
India Cements, Tulip, Dr Reddy, Sesa Goa Ltd, Mtnl Ltd, KFA, MLL, BEL, Power Grid & Neyveli Lignite.
Nifty is in Up trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Rally may continue up to 4722-4724 zone for time being.
Support at 4670 & 4686 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4619-4621 zone and thereafter slide may continue u to 4571-4573 zone by non-stop.
Below 4523-4525 zone, expect panic up to 4474-4476 zone by non-stop.
On Positive Side, cross above 4770-4772 zone can take it up to 4819-4821 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 4623.80 level, it can tumble up to 4092.20 level by non-stop.
SL triggered. 3 closes above 4623.80 level, expect short covering up to 4889.60 level by non-stop.
BSE SENSEX:
Higher opening expected. Uptrend should continue.
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14235 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15973 level for your short positions too.
INVESTMENT BUY:
Buy R SYSTEMS INTL (NSE Cash) Uptrend may continue.
Mild sell-off up to 92 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 101 level for time being.
If crosses & sustains at above 107 level then uptrend may continue.
Keep a Stop Loss at 86 level for your long positions too.
Buy TODAYS WRITING PRODUCT (NSE Cash)
Uptrend may continue.
Mild sell-off up to 36 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 40 level for time being.
If crosses & sustains at above 42 level then uptrend may continue.
Keep a Stop Loss at 35 level for your long positions too.
Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,441.27. Up by 96.66 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,016.40. Up by 13.16 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,018.78. Up by 35.58 points.
The partially convertible rupee INR=IN closed at 48.90/91 per dollar on Friday, stronger than Thursday's close of 48.92/93.
Interesting findings on web:
Stocks jumped in light trading Friday after the government reported that the pace of job losses slowed in August to the lowest level in a year.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday as investors focused on the bright side of a mixed payrolls report that showed smaller-than-expected job cuts in August, although the unemployment rate hit a 26-year high.
However the report also showed that the ranks of the unemployed swelled to 9.7 percent, the highest level since June 1983.
"It was a very interesting reaction," said Randy Frederick, director of active trading at Charles Schwab. "It was almost as if the market didn't know whether to react positively to the payroll numbers or negatively to the unemployment rate. We've just got a lot of volatility with no conviction on direction," he said.
"Yes, the unemployment rate was a little worse than expected, but the wild card was the non-farm payrolls, which came out better than forecast," said Robert Francello, head of equity trading for Apex Capital in San Francisco.
"It's providing relief as we get near the close, and some people are covering shorts here before the long weekend."
Analysts viewed the jobs numbers, showing unemployment climbing to 9.7 percent with 216,000 jobs lost in August from 9.4 percent and a revised 276,000 jobs lost in July, as giving conflicting signals.
Most of them had expected 230,000 job losses and an unemployment rate of 9.5 per cent in August.
Briefing.com's Patrick O'Hare however called the August employment report "not good".
"There is nothing good about 216,000 jobs being lost," he commented.
With companies expected to slow down layoffs but not expand payrolls, the scenario does not bode well for consumer spending, a primary component of economic growth, analysts at Briefing.com said.
Unemployment is expected to hit 10% by the end of the year or early 2010, even as the economy is starting to recover. Although a jobs recovery typically lags a broader recovery, the rise in unemployment remains the market's biggest economic worry right now.
Without a healthier labor market and a burst in consumer spending, inventory rebuilding and fiscal and monetary stimulus are the main factors fueling a recovery.
"In the last few weeks, we've gone from pricing in a recovery to worrying about a double-dip recession in 2010 when all the stimulus money gives out," said Kleintop.
"The bulls let out a collective sigh of relief today, after the government's highly anticipated payrolls report wasn't as sour as expected," said Andrea Kramer at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
"Against this backdrop, the bulls won the battle for the session, but the bears won the war for the first week in three."
Barclays Capital analysts said the payrolls report, one of the best gauges of economic momentum, was a bit weaker than expected on balance, due to a rising unemployment rate and small downward revisions to previous months, but did not alter the outlook for recovery.
"While the labor market is still showing significant job losses, the August employment report showed a continued slowing in their pace, and we expect job growth to turn positive by year-end as the recovery becomes entrenched and businesses feel more comfortable hiring," said Barclays economist Dean Maki.
He added that the data could mean "the recovery is even stronger than we have forecast."
U.S. unemployment rate since August 2008
Month Rate Month Rate
Aug 6.20% Mar 8.50%
Sep 6.20% Apr 8.90%
Oct 6.60% May 9.40%
Nov 6.80% Jun 9.50%
Dec 7.20% Jul 9.40%
Jan 7.60% Aug 9.70%
Feb 8.10%
Changes in payrolls since August 2008
Month Job chg. Month Job chg.
Aug -175,000 Mar -652,000
Sep -321,000 Apr -519,000
Oct -380,000 May -303,000
Nov -597,000 Jun -463,000
Dec -681,000 Jul -276,000 (p)
Jan 741,000 Aug -216,000 (p)
Feb -681,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The latest numbers brought total jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to 6.9 million, the biggest decline in any post-World War II economic slump.
Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.
Stock investors were also extra cautious ahead of a long Labor Day holiday weekend and the so-called September effect, reflecting the weakest month of the year in historical terms.
"Some caution until about the middle of the month makes sense in this extended market," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist of Wells Fargo Advisors.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI climbed 96.66 points, or 1.03 percent, to end at 9,441.27. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 13.16 points, or 1.31 percent, to 1,016.40. It's best advance on the session before the Labour Day weekend since 1999. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC rose 35.58 points, or 1.79 percent, to close at 2,018.78. It's the first time in three days that the Nasdaq has been above 2,000.
All three major indexes ended in the red for the week after the big drop on Tuesday. The Dow declined 1.1%, the biggest weekly drop since the week of July 10. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%.
For the week:
The Dow is down 102.93, or 1.1 percent.
The S&P is down 12.53, or 1.2 percent.
The Nasdaq down 9.99, or 0.5 percent.
For the year:
The Dow is up 664.88, or 7.6 percent.
The S&P is up 113.15, or 12.5 percent.
The Nasdaq is up 441.75, or 28.0 percent.
Twenty-eight of the 30 Dow stocks were higher Friday, along with 400 S&P 500 stocks and 97 stocks in the Nasdaq-100 Index ($NDX.X).
Gains were broad-based, with technology shares leading the charge. Semiconductor stocks rose after Intel Corp's (INTC.O) chief executive said aging personal computers and Microsoft's launch of Windows 7 will prompt companies to start spending on PCs next year.
American Airlines parent AMR (AMR) was up 2.7% to $5.64. Continental Airlines (CAL) was up 2.4% to $13.70.
Intel was up 1.1 percent at $19.64 and Microsoft (MSFT.O) closed at $$24.62, up 2.1 percent, both in Nasdaq trading.
The PHLX semiconductor index .SOXX rose 2.7 percent.
Select financial shares rose, including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), US Bancorp (USB, Fortune 500) and Regions Financial (RF, Fortune 500). The KBW Bank (BKX) index added 1.4%.
A number of truckers, airlines and railroad shares rose, now that oil prices have come down off 10-month highs set last week. Fuel prices are directly linked to the profitability of transportation companies. The Dow Jones Transportation (DJT) average gained 2%.
Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares rose ahead of its media event next week where it is expected to introduce iPod Nano and Touch models that include digital cameras. Investors are also wondering if CEO Steve Jobs, now back at work after a six-month medical leave, will make an appearance. Apple shares have nearly doubled this year.
Other big tech gainers included Microsoft, IBM, Cisco Systems,
Novellus (NVLS.O) rose 2.9 percent to $19.63 after the semiconductor manufacturing tool maker lifted its forecasts for the current quarter.
Leap Wireless [LEAP 18.02 0.63 (+3.62%) ] continued to rally, making it one of the biggest percentage gainers on the Nasdaq 100, amid rumors this week that AT&T [T 25.51 0.36 (+1.43%) ] might be looking to buy the wireless provider.
Abercrombie & Fitch shares [ANF 30.17 -0.81 (-2.61%) ] skidded after Citigroup downgraded the stock to "sell" from "hold," saying the teen chain will continue to see same-store sales deteriorate as it hasn't managed the recession well.
Shares of memory chip developer Rambus Inc (RMBS.O) shot up 11.4 percent to $17.75 on Nasdaq on speculation that rival Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) would buy the company for $25 to $27.50 per share.
International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N) shares helped lead the Dow industrials' advance, rising 1 percent to $117.46 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Among financial stocks, shares of mortgage fund providers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose on news that they were back in compliance with New York Stock Exchange share listing rules, reinstating somewhat their respectability among investors.
Fannie Mae (FNM.N) gained 7.9 percent to $1.77 and Freddie Mac (FRE.N) rose 5.4 percent to $1.97.
Esterline Technologies , the maker of jet-engine parts, posted third-quarter profits that beat expectations and raised its forecast after good performances in its avionics and controls segment. Its shares closed 19.4 per cent higher at $36.41.
Microsoft and Caterpillar climbed at least 2.1%.
Among stocks in focus, General Electric climbed 3.12 percent to 13.87 dollars. Reports said that aircraft parts maker Moog was in talks with GE Aviation Systems to buy its flight control actuation product line in Britain.
Boeing rose 1.42 percent to 49.15 dollars after reports the Geneva-based World Trade Organization ruled its European-based rival benefited from illegal subsidies.
Clothing and sports goods maker Quiksilver slid 17.48 percent to 2.36 dollars after reporting a 53 percent drop in quarterly profits.
In corporate news, H&R Block (HRB) reported a first quarter adjusted loss of $0.39 per share, which was wider than the expected loss of $0.37 per share. Looking ahead, the company said it continues to expect its 2010 earnings in the range of $1.60 to $1.80 per share. Analysts foresee earnings of $1.65 per share.
Declines in payrolls for August were the smallest in a year, but the unemployment rate rose to a level not reached since June 1983, according to the Labor Department. Wall Street views a rebound in the labor market as a key component to an economic recovery.
Analysts said the reduced trading volumes before the U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend, with more investors taking the day off, added to volatility. Only 1.02 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, well below last year's estimated daily average of 1.49 billion.
On the Nasdaq, about 1.74 billion shares traded, also below last year's daily average of 2.28 billion.
About 7.3 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, 22% less than the three-month daily average.
The CBOE's Vix index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", fell yesterday after rising towards a reading of 30 - its highest since mid-July - on Tuesday.
U.S. financial markets will be closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
Oil,Gold & Currencies:
Crude oil was little changed, falling 3USc in three days, amid a gain in U. equities and speculation that stockpiles are ample to meet demand in the world's biggest energy-consuming country.
A government report showed that crude and fuel supplies were above the five-year average.
Crude oil for October delivery rose 6USc to settle at $US68.02 a barrel in New York on light trading ahead of the holiday. Prices dropped 6.5% this week, the biggest drop since the week ended July 10.
Gold fell after touching a six-month high of $US999.50 on Thursday as investors locked in gains from bullion's rally toward $US1000 an ounce. Silver fell from a 13-month high.
Futures for December delivery slipped $US6.20, or 0.6%, to $US991.50 an ounce in New York, weekly jump of 3.4%. Bullion for immediate delivery fell 0.2% to $US990.30 an ounce in London.
The dollar and yen dropped against most of their major counterparts as investors switched to higher-yielding assets after US payroll losses slowed. And economic prospects improved.
The euro climbed against the dollar for a second day before a private report forecast to show European investor confidence rose to the highest level since July 2008, signaling the recession is easing in the euro-zone.
The euro also gained for a third day against the yen on prospects a German report will show the nation's factory orders rose in July for a fifth month, boosting demand for higher- yielding currencies. The yen fell against 14 of its 16 major counterparts as Asian stocks rallied on optimism the global slowdown is easing.
"The positive economic outlook is causing more risk taking, supporting the euro and commodity currencies, especially the Australian dollar," said Takashi Kudo, director of foreign- exchange sales in Tokyo at NTT SmartTrade Inc., a unit of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. "Additional positive economic data would further enhance the trend. The euro may climb to near $1.44 today."
The euro strengthened to $1.4325 as of 11:04 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4297 in New York on Sept. 4. It gained 0.3 percent to 133.39 yen. The dollar traded at 93.11 yen from 93.01.
Australia's dollar climbed to 85.16 U.S. cents from 85.07 cents. It earlier touched 85.38 U.S. cents, the highest since September 2008. Australia's currency advanced 0.2 percent to 79.31 yen.
Benchmark interest rates are as low as zero in the U.S. and 0.1 percent in Japan, compared with 3 percent in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand, making the South Pacific nations' assets attractive to investors. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen and pound, was at 78.08 from 78.14.
Europe Sentiment
The euro strengthened as a Bloomberg News survey of economists showed an index measuring euro-region sentiment will rise to minus 13.7 this month from minus 17 in August. The Limburg, Germany-based Sentix research institute is set to report the index today.
The dollar fell against 12 of its 16 major counterparts as another survey showed German factory orders may have gained 2 percent in July after rising 4.5 percent in August. The Economy Ministry in Berlin will report the data today.
Australia's dollar advanced after Group of 20 officials including U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling and German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said in London on Sept. 5 that it was premature to quit emergency measures to fight the global recession, signaling central banks will hold down interest rates.
'Improved Outlook'
"With an improved outlook for growth and no early unwinding of stimulative policies, this should support investor risk appetite and hence global growth-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar," John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy in Sydney at National Australia Bank Ltd., wrote in a research note today.
The yen weakened as improved U.S. jobs data triggered gains in Asian shares, encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding securities.
U.S. companies cut payrolls by 216,000 workers in August, fewer than economists had forecast and following a 276,000 reduction in July, Labor Department data showed on Sept. 4. The jobless rate rose to 9.7 percent from 9.4 percent.
"There's a sense the worst of the worldwide recession is over, with the equity market rebounding," said Akifumi Uchida, deputy general manager of the marketing unit at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Corp. in Tokyo. "From a risk-appetite perspective, the yen is likely to be sold."
Asian Stocks
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1 percent, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares rose 0.8 percent.
Losses in the yen may be limited today due to trading patterns during the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., said Tohru Sasaki, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at JPMorgan & Chase Co., citing charts prepared by the bank.
"While we are tempted to say that the market is likely to be range-bound because today is a U.S. holiday, the yen actually has a strong tendency to appreciate on the U.S. Labor Day holiday," Sasaki wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg News today.
The yen has appreciated eight out of nine times since 2000 on Labor Day, Sasaki said.
Bonds:
The bond market fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose to 3.442 percent from 3.328 percent Thursday and that on the 30-year bond climbed to 4.273 percent from 4.150 percent. Bond yield and prices move in opposite directions.
What to expect:
This week will start off slow with the Labor Day holiday, but will pick up as the week goes on with a few key data points, including the Fed's beige-book report and consumer sentiment.
MONDAY: All US markets closed for Labor Day
TUESDAY: 3-year auction; consumer credit
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; Fed's Evans speaks; 10-year auction; beige book
THURSDAY: International trade; weekly jobless claims; weekly crude inventories; 30-year auction; Nat Semi earnings
FRIDAY: import/export prices; consumer sentiment; wholesale trade; Treasury budget; Campbell Soup earnings
Asia:
Asian stocks rose for a third day, led by technology companies and automakers, as a $1.8 billion bid for Chartered Semiconductor Ltd. fueled merger speculation.
Chartered was halted from trading in Singapore. Toshiba Corp. climbed 3.9 percent in Tokyo after the Nikkei newspaper said the company will contract out production to cut costs. Canon Inc., which gets 28 percent of its sales from the Americas, gained 2.3 percent, while Toyota Motor Corp., the world's No.1 automaker, rose 1 percent after the U.S. government said companies had cut fewer jobs than estimated in August.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6 percent to 113.43 as of 10:24 a.m. in Tokyo, taking a three-day advance to 0.9 percent. Stocks on the gauge are priced at 1.5 times book, lower than 2.1 times for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the U.S. and 1.6 times for Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index.
"Investors are focusing on the relative cheapness of equities," said Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager at Tokyo- based Nikko Cordial Securities Inc.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.9 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.3 percent. New Zealand's NZX 50 Index added 0.6 percent.
Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed. The stock gauge climbed 1.3 percent on Sept.4 after a Labor Department report showed U.S. companies cut fewer jobs last month than economists had estimated. The unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent, the highest level in 26 years.
U.S. Jobs Report
Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations concluded talks in London on Sept. 5, agreeing to rein in bank bonuses and force lenders to hold more capital to avoid a repeat of the global financial crisis.
Technology companies accounted for 15 percent of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index's gain today as Advanced Technology Investment Co., owned by the government of Abu Dhabi, said it plans to acquire Chartered Semiconductor for S$2.5 billion ($1.8 billion) in cash.
BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group, the world's biggest and third-biggest mining companies, are considering a A$1 billion ($853 million) merger of their Canadian diamond operations, the Australian reported, without saying where it got the information.
Rio Tinto gained 1.2 percent to A$55.89 in Sydney, while BHP was little changed at A$36.59.
Toshiba, Japan's largest chipmaker, climbed 3.9 percent to 484 yen. The company will contract out production of large-scale integrated circuits to overseas chipmakers as part of efforts to cut production costs, the Nikkei newspaper said. Keisuke Ohmori, a spokesman for Toshiba, said that no decision had been made.
Canon rose 2.3 percent to 3,550 yen. Toyota, which gets 31 percent of its revenue in North America, added 1 percent to 3,890 yen.
Nikkei 225 10,290.78 +103.67 ( +1.02%) (08.27 AM IST).
Tokyo stocks rose Monday morning after a three-day losing streak as buybacks in hi-tech and other exporter shares were spurred by a stronger U.S. dollar and gains on Wall Street following mixed jobs data Friday.
Japan's Nikkei stock average climbed 1 percent on Monday as exporters such as Canon Inc (7751.T) rose, with investors focusing on the bright side of mixed U.S. jobs data and as the yen retreated against the dollar.
Advantest Corp (6857.T) and other chip-related shares gained, buoyed by broad buying of their U.S. peers after Intel Corp's (INTC.O) chief executive said ageing personal computers and Microsoft's launch of Windows 7 will prompt companies to start spending on PCs next year.
But the benchmark Nikkei was trapped in a narrow 35-point range with investors reluctant to trade, with U.S. markets closed on Monday for a holiday and ahead of the settlement of Nikkei futures and options on Friday.
The Nikkei was also helped by a positive start to Shanghai trading .SSEC, which market players said investors had been waiting for after China eased inbound investment rules on Friday. "There are expectations of a lot more investment in China, and if Asian markets recover, so does the Nikkei," said Noritsugu Hirakawa, a strategist at Okasan Securities. China announced new draft rules on Friday on inbound portfolio investments, increasing the amount some institutions can invest in the country's stock markets.
Shares in Toshiba Corp. (6502) ended their three-day retreat Monday, after The Nikkei reported the same day that the firm will outsource the fabrication of cutting-edge system chips for home electronics and other products to an overseas foundry starting next fiscal year.
Shares in Tokyo Dome Corp. (9681) retreated for the fourth straight trading day Monday, falling 7 yen to hit a five-month low of 269 yen.
HSI 20590.82 +272.2 +1.34%. (08.30 AM IST).
Hang Seng Index opens 184 points higher on Mon
Hong Kong stocks rose on Monday morning, with the benchmark Hang Seng Index opening 184 points higher at 20,502.
The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which tracks the overall performance of 43 mainland Chinese state-owned enterprises on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opened 120 points higher at 11,880.
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd<601899><2899> increased 1.85% from the previous closing to HK$7.16. Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd<1818> rose 1.62% and opened at HK$12.58.
Hong Kong shares climbed further Monday, encouraged by an advance in Shanghai and Friday gains on Wall Street, with Hong Kong-listed stocks of China Unicom Ltd. rising after the company and Spain's Telefonica SA /quotes/comstock/13*!tef/quotes/nls/tef (TEF 75.11, +1.03, +1.39%) announced plans to deepen their strategic relationship. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.7% to 20,466.17, while China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.2% to 2,897.29. Friday, the Hang Seng Index finished above 20,000 after Chinese regulators issued draft rules to raise quotas for investments by foreign institutional investors to $1 billion from $800 million. Shares of China Unicom climbed 1.9% on news of its $1 billion stock swap with Telefonica.
SSE Composite 2898.49 + 1.29.(08.32 AM IST)
Chinese stocks open 0.56% higher on Mon
Chinese stocks opened higher on Monday morning, tracking gains from the previous closing over the weekend.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A shares and B shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, opened at 2,877.62 points, up 0.56% or 16.01 points from the previous closing.
The Shenzhen Component Index on the smaller Shenzhen Stock Exchange opened 0.62% or 71.95 points higher at 11,591.63 points.
Nanjing to build LCD panel industry cluster in 5 years.
Yanlord Land's Chengdu project to open this year.
Agile Property acquires land use rights in Zhongshan.
China Oceanwide becomes 3rd largest shareholder of Legend Holdings.
Li Ka-shing to sell Seasons Villas in Shanghai.
Huayuan Property sells Beijing villas for RMB 430 mln.
PetroChina completes Singapore Petroleum buyout.
Banks to benefit from stricter stance
Banks should welcome the Chinese government's stricter stance on their capital base because it will benefit them although it will also affect their lending capacity, said a vice chairman of the regulatory body over the weekend.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission is soliciting opinions from commercial institutions, including the big state-owned lenders and joint stock banks, on the draft of a new calculation method on their capital base, Jiang Dingzhi, vice chairman of the CBRC, said at the China Bankers Forum 2009 in Shanghai on Saturday.
The regulator will fine tune the draft after analyzing the feedback, he said.
"Supervision on capital is core to our work," said Jiang. "The rule, which aims to improve the quality of banks' capital, will affect lending activity, but banks will reap fundamental benefits all the same."
A subordinated bond is one means for banks to expand capital. It has been a popular practice for Chinese banks to inflate their capital base by counting holdings of each other's subordinated debt as part of their capital base.
How much a bank can expand in credit is limited by its capital base, so more capital means more room for expansion.
The CBRC said last Thursday that it will take several years to phase out the holdings by banks of each other's subordinated bonds.
Chinese banks sold 236.7 billion yuan (US$34.66 billion) worth of subordinated bonds this year, almost tripling the amount issued last year, according to Bloomberg News.
Meanwhile, Su Ning, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said at the forum that the country will use various policy instruments to adjust the growth in loans.
"We are studying the use of a variety of policy tools to adjust banks' lending activity," Su said, without elaborating.
Banks in China have lent 7.73 trillion yuan of loans in the first seven months of this year, a jump of 173 percent from a year ago. The new loans have already beaten the 5 trillion yuan target for 2009 that was set at the start of this year, causing worries over possible asset bubbles.
Japan's foreign reserves rise to new high in August
The finance ministry said Monday that Japan's foreign exchange reserves in August expanded by 19.68 billion U.S. dollars from the previous month to a new high of 1,042.34 billion dollars.
A rise in its holdings of special drawing rights at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was a key factor behind the hike in the nation's foreign reserves, according to the ministry.
In December 2008, Japan's foreign reserves hit a record 1,030.65 billion dollars due to a rise in the value of its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and euro-denominated assets.
Japan's foreign exchange reserves, the world's second largest following China, consist mainly of securities and deposits denominated in foreign currencies, International Monetary Fund reserve positions, IMF special drawing rights and gold.
Limits up for QFII investors
China plans to raise the limits on inbound portfolio investments to bolster market sentiment and the renminbi's internationalization.
The upward limit for individual institutions' quotas under the qualified foreign institutional investor (QFII) program will be raised to $1 billion from $800 million under the draft rules and the lockup period for some investors will be cut to three months from one year, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said on Friday.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index soared 3 percent higher at close on Friday. The Shanghai stock exchange also closed higher by 0.6 percent.
"Although the total holdings of QFII investors amount to only a small fraction of the A-share market, these liberalizations (and potentially an accelerated pace of approvals) may signal official efforts to stabilize the domestic equity market," said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China Equities and Commodity at JP Morgan.
The Shanghai Composite has dropped 18 percent from its peak on Aug 8 following concerns that tighter capital requirements would curtail lending and derail a recovery.
"The draft rules are very encouraging for QFII. It is extremely good news for the QFIIs to invest in Chinese A shares market, which has undergone around 20 percent correction/fall in the last few weeks," Hubert Tse, managing director with International Business Group Yuan Tai PRC Attorneys.
"The changes will make it possible for large investors to channel more portfolio investments into China's capital markets," Tse said.
As of August, 87 qualified foreign institutional investors were permitted to invest a combined $15 billion in local-currency stocks and bonds.
However, the overall investment quota of $30 billion will remain intact, as less than $15 billion of that amount has been used so far, Chu Yumei, an official with SAFE, said.
SAFE also said it will shorten the lockup period for some medium- and long-term QFII funds such as pension funds and insurance funds to three months. Other QFII investors will still be subject to a one-year lockup.
The draft rules aim to encourage "medium- and long-term investment" and to make investment operation and risk control more "convenient", the currency regulator said.
"The new move is part of renminbi's internationalization," said Ha Jiming, chief economist, China International Capital Corp.
"The relaxed limitation on inbound portfolio investments could enhance cross-border circulation and raise efficiency. Looking ahead, the government might adopt measures to smooth the outflow of renminbi, to speed up its internationalization."
How and When Will the Global Crisis End?
Every year at this time, Ambrosetti holds a forum on the world, Europe and Italy. Since its beginnings in 1975, the forum has become widely regarded as one of the most important meetings worldwide.
Prominent leaders from all walks of life discuss economic and social issues facing the world. The panel I was asked to moderate focused on world economic growth and was called "How and When Will the Crisis End?"
Many people here see continued weakness for the world economy. A majority of the audience of European business people said the recovery won't likely start until 2010, and almost 40 percent believe it won't be until the second half of next year.
The optimist of the group was University of Chicago Professor and Nobel laureate Gary Becker, who, though worried about inflation, declared "the recession is over" and believes the recovery won't be as lethargic as some others are saying. He expects a slow recovery initially but says continued strong productivity will help the economy pick up steam and lead it out of the slump. He does not expect unemployment to reach the old peak of 10.8 percent reached in 1982.
The key issues for everyone on the panel were:
1) The world economy remains slow, and the nature of any recovery is still up for debate.
2) Emerging markets are a bright spot but not yet having a big enough impact.
3) The Fed's "exit strategy" as it unwinds stimulus efforts is critical. The wrong move has the potential to trigger a double-dip recession.
4) Structural issues remain. The recent euphoria over the recession ending and the banking system improving is actually dangerous because it has the potential to stop current momentum to reform the financial system.
Notes from the Participants
Here are highlights from what the individual participants had to say:
Gary Becker, University of Chicago and Nobel Laureate: An Optimist Outlook
Does not believe the recovery will be as bad as some expect
A flexible economy is critical.
The U.S. will emerge first on the global stage because of its ability to create different jobs and to be more flexible. This is what has hampered some European nations' ability to grow.
Education is critical. Today, 60 percent of degrees for higher education all over the world, even in Iran, are being given to women; men are dropping. Competition in education is important.
Arcady Dvorkovich, Aide to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev: A Reflective Tone
"We waited too long to make decisions that could have slowed or stopped the crisis in Russia. We were extremely slow."
The economy is down 10 percent this year, but Russia is ready to discuss exit strategies now.
People are tired of living in a panic. Russia feels better than a year ago (particularly with oil up from its lows).
Russia will work to be more efficient and stay open to innovation.
The agreement between Presidents Obama and Medvedev was very significant. Foreign policies are just as important as economic policies to global growth.
Nouriel Roubini, New York University Professor and Noted Economist: A Cautionary Approach
"After much stimulus bailout and a bazooka, the U.S. and the U.K. still face significant imbalances and challenges. The green shoots look more like yellow weeds to me."
Roubini worries about sustained high unemployment, weak industrial production, too much supply in housing, and a continued mindset that the economy is weak, which will tend to keep pushing the savings rate higher among consumers. On housing, even if we stopped building new homes today, it would take a year at least to get rid of the supply, so prices are likely to keep falling.
There are "many elements of fragility, which tells me the recession won't be over at least until year end, and it's not over yet."
The financial sector is still weak, unemployment will get worse and consumers are shopped out around the world, especially in places like Spain, where unemployment is 20 percent, Ireland and Iceland. The "over savers" China, Japan, and Germany are also not stimulating demand.
Believes there is a risk of a double-dip recession because of the very fragile position the Fed finds itself in. Unwinding the significant stimulus policies will be difficult and require courage. Fiscal and monetary policies will have to be changed. That means higher taxes for not just the rich but middle class as well, lower spending, and the mopping up of liquidity in the form of higher interest rates. All of this probably needs to take place during still uncertain economic times when unemployment will be high. This will be tough.
Commodities are rising; higher prices for raw materials also adds to the upset.
The good news is that emerging economies are growing. Brazil and China are more robust, but these will not be enough to rescue the world. China, while growing at about 8 percent, has a GDP of $3 trillion versus $13 trillion for the U.S. That's too small in the scheme of things to rescue the still troubled West.
Jean-Paul Fitoussi, A Leading Economist in France and Advisor to French President Nicolas Sarcozy: Status-Quo View
I asked him if we should read much into the recent growth in France. He said after several quarters of sharp contraction, three tenths of a percent growth doesn't say much. He did not seem to suggest France was any further along than it has been during this global upset.
Cheng Siwei, A leading Economic Voice in China: A Prudent Optimist
He called himself a "prudent optimist" but said not to expect China to bail out the world and to please not exaggerate China's role. He said to remember that China is only 6 percent of the world's economy and 15 percent of world growth. So he agreed with Nouriel Roubini that we need more than China and the emerging markets for this recovery to get traction. He said he expects a world recovery by the end of 2010 and believes China can grow 8 percent this year.
Mideast Panel
While at the conference I stopped to take in the Mideast Panel. It was remarkable to watch the body language of Shimon Peres and Amre Mousa. It seemed they could not even look at each other when they discussed differences between Israelis and Palestinians. Each one got up and went to the podium to speak.
Here are some of their comments:
Shimon Peres, President of Israel
Israel has decided to make peace on the basis of two states, an Israeli state and a Palestinian state.
Iran is a nuclear nation and has called for the destruction of Israel.
Peace and education bring economic vitality. "We must respect each other."
Amre Mousa, Secretary General, League of Arab States
There is new evidence of a new situation. A new U.S. President who was welcomed by the world, President Obama spoke about change and he was right. He called for nuclear disarmament. "We were impressed that one of his first decisions was to reach out to the Middle East."
The Arab League has put a commitment of peace on the table since 2002. "We called on Israel to do the same."
Asked what will happen to the 1.5 million Arabs — Muslims and Christians — that live in the state of Israel if it's called the Jewish State of Israel? Now Gaza, this small strip of land lives under siege.
In listening to the attendees here at the Ambrosetti conference, one thing is clear: There is still much debate over how and when the global crisis will end, and all eyes are focused dead-ahead looking for clearer signs of what's to come. Most seem to agree, however, that the situation will be better when this forum reconvenes at this same time next year.
Too much debt remains a big problem, Hoenig says
Fed must be 'resolute' in raising rates, reducing excess money
The U.S. economy appears to be reviving from a nasty recession, but too little has been done to resolve the underlying problem of too much debt, a Federal Reserve official says.
In a speech given a month ago, but released to the public on Saturday, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said massive amounts of public and private debt are putting tremendous pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates low, potentially sowing the seeds of inflation or further economic imbalances.
Hoenig, considered one of the Fed's leading advocates for low-inflation policies, said the Fed has tried too hard to boost growth in the past by keeping rates low. But low rates only encouraged more debt, and fueled an increase in the money supply that has eroded purchasing power.
Sustainable growth can't be achieved that way, he said.
The federal government has taken on much more debt in an effort to stimulate the economy, he said. Consumer debt remains bloated. And the biggest banks are still overleveraged by about $5 trillion, he said.
The way out of the swamp will be tricky, he said.
"As we become more confident that we are at the bottom of the recession and are moving into recovery, we must become more resolute in systematically reducing our balance sheet and raising interest rates," Hoenig told the annual meeting of the Kansas Bankers Association on Aug. 6. Read his speech.
Hoenig will be a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2010.
The Fed can't rush to raise rates or to pull back on its credit-easing policies, he said. "I suspect we are going to recover slowly," he said. "We are going to be walking the 'knife's edge' for some time to come."
The biggest banks still pose large risks to the economy, he said. The top 20 banks have now been given an explicit government backing because they are too big to fail. Yet those banks hold a smaller capital reserve than community banks that have no guarantee, he said.
Since 1990, the largest banks have increased their asset share from 35% to more than 70%, encouraged by bank deregulation legislation.
The biggest banks are no longer market-driven institutions, but public utilities, Hoenig said. "This has to change or we will not retain the dynamic financial system that has made the United States so successful."
Obama to appoint Ron Bloom as manufacturing adviser
President Barack Obama plans to appoint auto task-force member Ron Bloom as senior counselor for manufacturing in a move to help revamp the sector, reports said Sunday.
G-20 Leaders May Curb Banker Pay, Profit at Pittsburgh Summit
INVESTMENT VIEW
Tata Steel: Firmness In Long Steel Price Shows Underlying Firm Demand
The firmness that we are witnessing in Secondary prices across India over last few days may have a fundamental reason.
The govt has changed the mechanism of charging the royality on iron ore produced from leased mines from fixed Rs 27/t to 10% of iron-ore prices wef 13th aug09. At current iron-ore prices ex-Barbil @ Rs 3150/t, this works out to Rs 315/t. After considering yield, the net impact of this on producing sponge iron will be in the region of Rs 600-700/t.
Further, the unauthorized mines in Barbil region have been ordered to shutdown leading to a shortage and near panic situation amongst people connected with that business/trade.
This is a big change...and well may be the trigger for any recovery in rebar prices. Sponge iron prices have already reacted witnessing a jump of Rs 1000/t over last one week in Durgapur belt triggering a similar rise in ingot and rebar prices. The cascading effect can be felt elsewhere too.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
FII DATA
| FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) |
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| FII | 04-Sep-2009 | 1912.07 | 2311.99 | -399.92 |
| DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) |
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| DII | 04-Sep-2009 | 986.9 | 992.25 | -5.35 |
SPOTL LEVELS FOR TODAY
 | 4680.40 | ( 1.89 %) | 86.85 |  |
| | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Resistance | 4724.95 | 4769.50 | 4841.80 |
| Support | 4608.10 | 4535.80 | 4491.25 |
 | 15689.12 | ( 1.89 %) | 290.79 | |
| | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Resistance | 15833.65 | 15978.19 | 16215.54 |
| Support | 15451.76 | 15214.41 | 15069.87 |
Index Outlook — Market shackled in a range
Sensex (15,689.1) It was a somnolent week for Indian equities. The Sensex appeared almost spineless in the first four sessions; making a feeble attempt to rise in the morning only to collapse towards the end.
Friday afternoon was, however, different and the Sensex closed the week with a flourish, reducing the weekly loss to just 1.5 per cent.
Wavering global markets and mixed economic news can be held responsible for this state of flux.
Most large-cap stocks meandered sideways and action in mid- and small-caps too was relatively muted.
Volume in the cash segment is dwindling while the derivative section continues to witness robust turnover indicating a mark-up in speculative activity in the market. FIIs were net sellers last week even as domestic institutions lapped up stocks. .
The Sensex went in to gentle decline to the week's low of 15,356 before Friday's turnaround. It has been one-week-up and one-week-down for the Sensex since the last week of July.
Weekly momentum indicators are displaying negative divergence but are still poised in the bullish zone. The 10-week ROC's needs to decline in to negative zone to indicate that the medium-term trend is cracking.
Oscillators in the daily chart are also signalling weakness.
There is no alteration in our medium and intermediate term view. The trend along both time frames are currently up, if we apply conventional trend-following tools. This makes initiating short positions a dangerous proposition.
But the fact that the Sensex is nearing the key intermediate-term resistance level of 16,200 and sagging momentum in medium-term chart call for an overdose of caution.
If we extrapolate the target of the next wave up in the current medium-term up-trend, the target would fall between 16,100 and 16,400. If this level is crossed, the next target zone lies between 17,400 and 17,800.
Confluence of targets in the band between 16,000 and 16,500 makes it a very potent resistance zone that can be hard to overcome just yet.
The short-term trend remains indecisive and traders ought to go on that much-postponed break until the index moves out of the range between 14,700 and 16,000. Short-term targets above 16,000 are 16,143, 16,402 and 16,630.
Short-term supports are at 15,321 and 15,171.
Nifty (4,680.4)
Nifty recorded an intra-week low of 4,576 before reversing higher. If we consider the target of the fifth wave from the March low of 2,539, next target for the Nifty is 4,740.
Fibonacci retracement of the decline from January 2008 peak gives us the next resistance for this rally is at 4,900.
In other words, the next 200 points in the Nifty are critical from a long-term perspective and an intermediate term peak is possible here.
Sagging momentum on daily and weekly charts support this view.
There can, however, be a rally to 4,740 once again in the near-term.
If the index closes above this level, next targets are 4,821, 4,855 and finally 4,900. Short-term supports are at 4,548, 4,500 and 4,353.
Global Cues The sharp jerk-down on Tuesday has made most benchmark indices more vulnerable than they were towards the end of last week though Friday's fight-back has salvaged the situation to some extent.
It is, however, too soon to gauge if it is just a short-term pull-back or protracted medium-term down-trend.
CBOE volatility index spiked to 29.5, a level not witnessed over the last two months. But it receded in the last two sessions to end at 25.
Dow Jones Industrial Average declined to an intra-week low of 9,253 before staging a reversal. The recovery needs to progress beyond 9,500 to indicate resumption of the up-trend. The medium-term trend in this index continues to be up and a strong close below 9,000 would be the early signal of a reversal. The week ahead is critical for determining the medium-term trajectory for this index.
Asian indices too were treading water last week without making any headway. Shanghai Composite gave a scare by collapsing below the key support at 2,800 in the early part of the week, but it recovered thereafter to close at 2,861. Short-term resistance that needs to be surpassed in this index is at 2,950 and 3,000.
Pivotals — Reliance (Rs 1,980.9)
RIL slid gently in the first four sessions of the week to the intra-week low of Rs 1,924 before reversing on Friday afternoon to reduce the weekly loss to 4 per cent. The short-term trend, however, continues to be indecisive since the stock has not yet broken out of the trading range between Rs 1,900 and Rs 2,100. Break-out above Rs 2,100 will take RIL to the next target of Rs 2,200.
As we have been reiterating, the medium-term view remains one of caution as long as the stock trades below Rs 2,200. Decline below Rs 1,900 will imply the onset of the third leg of the down-move from the May 19 peak that has the targets of Rs 1,708 or Rs 1,530.
State Bank of India (Rs 1,763.9)
SBI continued to be traders' nightmare, trudging in an extremely narrow range between Rs 1,710 and Rs 1,780 last week. This is the third week in which a doji was formed in the weekly candlestick chart indicating that market participants are absolutely clueless about the future direction of this stock. We maintain the short-term range between Rs 1,650 and Rs 1,900 for SBI and traders would do well to stay away from this counter as long as it remains within this zone.
SBI has key intermediate-term resistance in the band between Rs 1,800 and Rs 1,900 and once the stock move above this zone; it can attempt to move towards its previous high again. The tentative movement over the last four weeks appears to be a period in which the stock garners strength before attempting a break-out. Investors with a medium-term perspective should hold with a stop at Rs 1,500.
Tata Steel (Rs 430.1)
Tata Steel did very little last week and ended with marginal 2 per cent loss. Key short-term supports for the stock are at Rs 410 and Rs 392. Short-term traders can hold with a stop at Rs 390. There can be a pull-back in the near term that takes the stock higher to Rs 440 or Rs 460. Reversal from either of these levels will be the cue for traders to initiate fresh short positions. Downward targets are Rs 393 and Rs 380.
The medium-term trend in Tata Steel continues to be positive. Target on a break above Rs 500 is Rs 570 and Rs 650. A close below Rs 375 is needed to mitigate the positive medium-term outlook for this stock.
Infosys (Rs 2,200.3)
Infosys was also stuck in a narrow range between Rs 2,120 and Rs 2,200 last week. The trend along all time frames: short, medium and long are up. Short-term traders can buy the stock on declines with a stop at Rs 2,100.
Short-term targets for the stock are Rs 2,286 and Rs 2,388.
The medium-term view stays positive as long as the stock holds above Rs 1,950. Immediate medium-term target for the stock is its former peak at Rs 2,439.
ONGC (Rs 1,177.7)
ONGC moved in a wafer-thin range between Rs 1,140 and Rs 1,200 last week and what is more, it has been stuck in this range over the last three weeks. We maintain that the target on a break above the upper boundary is Rs 1,356. Supports stay at Rs 1,100 and Rs 1,070.
Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,546.6)
MSIL moved to the upper boundary of its short-term trading range to record a new high at Rs 1569.9 last week. The chart of Maruti is the strongest among the pivotals.
The structural up-trend appears to have resumed in this stock. The long-term trend will stay positive as long as the stock stays above Rs 1,248. Long-term targets for the third leg of this structural up-trend are Rs 1,875 and Rs 2,200. Investors should therefore utilise declines to buy the stock with a stop at Rs 1,350.
Undertone remains bullish in Nifty futures
Critical factors
Nifty Futures closed at premium.
Open interest jumps to 2.77 crore shares.
Stock-specific action was concentrated in momentum counters.
The volatility index ended marginally lower at 32.51 points.
Thanks to a strong show on Friday, the Nifty futures recovered most of the losses suffered earlier during the week. It closed with a premium of 15 points at 4,695.6 levels against the Nifty spot close at 4,680.4.
It however, witnessed a loss of 0.89 per cent from its previous week's close.
The week also saw the Nifty Futures swing between premium and discount with respect to the spot close. In terms of market-wide open interest, though there was an increase on a weekly basis, the addition wasn't smooth as some traders chose to cut positions when the market fell sharply.
Overall, the Nifty futures' open interest jumped to 2.77 crore shares over the previous week's 2.43 crore shares.
As far stock-specific action goes, the attention was mainly centered on momentum players such as IFCI, Unitech, HDIL, Suzlon, Reliance Capital and Aban Offshore. Interestingly, even in the options segment, these counters captured the traders' interest.
Follow-up
We had presented two strategies last week
Consider going long with a stop-loss at 4,635. Nifty futures would have hit our stop-loss. Another strategy was a bull call spread. In this we had advised traders to sell 5,000 Nifty call and buy 4,700 Nifty call.
This strategy currently remains in the neutral zone. Traders can, however, continue to hold this position as we expect the Nifty to break out on the upper side.
Option monitor
Trading in options present a mixed view.
Among the options, 4,800 call options saw higher accumulation, indicating the emergence of call writers, signifying Nifty could find strong resistance around 4,800.
In contrast, put writers have also emerged at 4,600 and 4,500 levels.
This points that these levels could act as a major support base for Nifty.
The 5,200 call options of October were the most active, indicating that traders could be expecting the Nifty futures to touch 5,200 by Diwali.
The volatility index, which climbed above 70-points during intra-day, ended marginally lower at 32.51 points against the previous week's close of 33.27.
The drop in volatility index suggests strength in the Friday current rally.
Recommendation
We recommend the following strategies for readers
Consider going long on the Nifty futures with a stop-loss at 4,575. The stop-loss can be adjusted suitably to protect profits.
Buy 4,700 Nifty call, which closed at Rs 130.7 on Friday.
FII trend
The cumulative FII positions as a percentage of the total gross market position on the derivative segment as on September 4 increased to 35.78 per cent (37.84 per cent). They were mainly sellers all through the week, particularly on index futures and index options.
Their index futures holding increased to Rs 14,150.87 crore (Rs 10,988.19 crore) and stock futures to Rs 21,251.4 crore (Rs 19,426.09 crore).
Index options holding also increased to Rs 24,210.12 crore (Rs 21,323.99 crore).
DOES SENSEX REACHING 18000 or 21000 means that ALL STOCKS WILL REACH THE PREVIOUS LEVEL ?
I read many queries on few forums where one frequent question of the
investors is WHEN WILL SENSEX REACH 21000? They ask this question
because many have purchased stocks in DECEMBER 2007 when the sensex
was at 21000, and now since they are stuck with the stock at a very
high price they quickly want the sensex to reach 21000 so that they
can sell their stock at 21000 level. However, If the sensex reaches
21000 againn in 3 to 4 years will it mean all the stocks will reach
their previous high level of DECEMBER 2007 when sensex was at 21000.
Lets examine with facts and figures.
24.3. 2008 27.7.2009 RISE/ FALLin %
SENSEX 15289 15300 NIL
BHEL 1872 2261 +20.8%
INFOSYS 1360 2028 +49%
IOB 126 90 --28.6%
SBI 1644 1711 +4%
TATAMOTORS 663 374 --43.6%
It is clear from the above table that though the sensex was at
15300 in 24.3.08 and 27.7.09, however individual stocks were not at
the same level in MARCH 2008 and JULY 2009. Infact while some such as
tata motors and IOB have fallen by 43.6 % and 28.6%, some such as
INFOSYS and BHEL have risen by 49% and 20.8%.
CONCLUSION : Though some such as equitymas... are shouting from
rooftops that sensex will reach 21000 by june 2009 , even if sensex
reaches DECEMBER 2007 level of 21000 in 2,3 or 4 years it doesnt mean
that all stocks will reach their 21000 high level, while some may even
surpass their 21000 high level some will even be much lower than their
previous 21000 level.
Dont wait for 18000 or 21000 to take a decision about your stock.Take
individual stock specific decisions.Dont get influenced and confused
by this propoganda of 21000 in 6 months or 40000 in 7 years by morgan
s, as 21000 or 40000 doesnt mean that all stocks will regain their
past 21000 levels.
NOTE : Abovementioned table is only for illustrative purpose and is
not to be construed as investment advice.
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
