Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Market Outlook 26th Oct 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks for 26th Oct
This is list of 10 strong Stocks: 
ABG Ship, Orchid Chem, Canara Bank, Vijaya Bank, United Phosphoro, Federal Bank, MLL, TCS, KS Oils & Bhushan Steel. 
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks
GMR Infra, Ispat Ind, Wipro, Finan Tech, Pir Health, Praj Ind, Apollo Tyre, JSW Steel, Welcorp & BRFL.
The daily trend of nifty is in Downtrend 

  • Supp / Resis SPOT/ CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 6110.986155.92 6190.73
Support 6031.235996.42 5951.48
Sensex Resistance 20315.51 20465.16 20578.58
Support 20052.44 19939.02 19789.37

TRADING CALLS (trade with strict SL)
BUY NIFTY ABV 6149 T 6162 6175 6201 6214 & SELL BLW 6123 T 6110 6097 6071 6032 
BUY BANKNIFTY ABV 12530 T 12565 12590 12630 12665 & SELL BLW 12470 T 12440 12400 12360 12310 
BUY ABB ABV 920 T 930 940 950 BLW 910 T 900 890 880 
BUY HEROHONDA ABV 1875 T 1885 1895 1905 & SELL BLW 1860 T 1850 1840 1830 
BUY LNT ABV 2050 T 2060 2070 2080 & SELL BLW 2035 T 2025 2015 2005 
BUY MARUTI ABV 1525 T 1535 1545 1555 & SELL BLW 1515 T 1505 1495 1485 
BUY ORCHID ABV 333 T 336 339 342 & SELL BLW 330 T 327 324 321 
BUY RELIANCE ABV 1100 T 1110 1120 1130 & SELL BLW 1090 T 1080 1070 1060 
BUY LIC ABV 1375 T 1385 1395 1405 & SELL BLW 1365 T 1355 1345 1335 
BUY M&M ABV 718 T 724 730 736 & SELL BLW 712 T 706 700 694 
BUY HLL ABV 307 T 309 311 313 & SELL BLW 305 T 303 301 299 
BUY MRPL ABV 85 T 87 89 91 & SELL BLW 83 T 81 79 77 
BUY JPASSO ABV 127 T 129 131 133 BLW 125 T 123 121 119 
BUY HPCL ABV 503 T 506 509 512 & SELL BLW 500 T 497 494 490 
BUY HDFC ABV 710 T 716 722 728 & SELL BLW 704 T 698 692 686 
SELL BPCL BLW 720 T 710 700 690 & BUY ABV 730 T 740 750 760 
BUY ABAN ABV 835 T 840 845 850 & SELL BLW 825 T 820 815 810 
BUY BHUSANSTEEL ABV 540 T 545 550 555 & SELL BLW 530 T 525 520 515 
BUY BHARTI ABV 339 T 342 345 348 & SELL BLW 336 T 333 330 327 
BUY CORPBANK ABV 788 T 794 800 808 & SELL BLW 780 T 774 768 760 
BUY BAJAJAUTO ABV 1500 T 1510 1520 1530 & SELL BLW 1480 T 1470 1460 1450 
BUY BOIBANK ABV 520 T 530 540 550 & SELL BLW 510 T 500 490 480 
BUY BOBBANK ABV 990 T 1000 1010 1020 & SELL BLW 980 T 970 960 950 
BUY AURAOPHARMA ABV 1490 T 1500 1510 1520 & SELL BLW 1480 T 1470 1460 1450
BUY DECLINE & SELL HIGHER LEVEL ;; SPECULATIVE SWING TRADING CALLS
BUY TELCO SL 1158 T 1238 
BUY KFA SL 77 T 82 
BUY ANDRABANK SL 181 T 196 
BUY DENABANK SL 181 T 196 
UCOBANK SL 127 T 142 
BUY YESBANK SL 358 T 395 
BUY COLGATE SL 843 T 888 
BUY ESSAROIL SL 142 T 168 
BUY JINDALSWL SL 2078 T 2270 
SELL SBI SL 3266 T 3206 & SELL ICICI SL 1159 T 1123 
BUY EDUCOM SL 593 T 625 
BUY HCL SL 415 T 446
BUY MNM SL 706 T 736 
BUY AXISBANK SL 1448 T 1488

SUPPORT/ RESISTANCE LEVELS IN CASH MARKET FOR INTRADAY TRADING
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
ABG Shipyard Ltd. NSE 403.05 422.05 373.85 441.05 344.65 470.25 325.65
Apollo Tyres Ltd. NSE 76.75 77.60 76.20 78.45 75.65 79.00 74.80
Bank of Baroda NSE 987.05 1002.00 977.05 1016.95 967.05 1026.95 952.10
Bank of India NSE 519.80 537.15 510.30 554.50 500.80 564.00 483.45
Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1257.00 1267.00 1246.00 1277.00 1235.00 1288.00 1225.00
Bhushan Steel Ltd. NSE 533.75 540.77 526.97 547.78 520.18 554.57 513.17
Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company Ltd. NSE 622.40 631.57 616.62 640.73 610.83 646.52 601.67
Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd. NSE 245.75 248.98 243.33 252.22 240.92 254.63 237.68
Canara Bank NSE 725.25 739.77 715.87 754.28 706.48 763.67 691.97
Federal Bank Ltd. NSE 476.85 481.17 472.17 485.48 467.48 490.17 463.17
Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. NSE 1141.80 1151.20 1136.20 1160.60 1130.60 1166.20 1121.20
GMR Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 53.30 53.95 52.90 54.60 52.50 55.00 51.85
Ispat Industries Ltd. NSE 20.65 21.22 20.27 21.78 19.88 22.17 19.32
JSW Energy Ltd. NSE 120.15 122.15 119.00 124.15 117.85 125.30 115.85
JSW Steel Ltd. NSE 1239.25 1266.92 1221.57 1294.58 1203.88 1312.27 1176.22
K S Oils Ltd. NSE 59.05 60.20 57.05 61.35 55.05 63.35 53.90
Mercator Lines Ltd. NSE 69.95 71.78 66.83 73.62 63.72 76.73 61.88
NSE Index NSE 6105.80 6139.87 6083.17 6173.93 6060.53 6196.57 6026.47
Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. NSE 331.40 335.93 326.93 340.47 322.47 344.93 317.93
Piramal Healthcare Ltd. NSE 493.95 506.28 485.33 518.62 476.72 527.23 464.38
Praj Industries Ltd. NSE 71.20 72.05 70.60 72.90 70.00 73.50 69.15
Unitech Ltd. NSE 89.75 90.53 89.03 91.32 88.32 92.03 87.53
United Phosphorus Ltd. NSE 217.15 221.58 210.83 226.02 204.52 232.33 200.08
Vijaya Bank NSE 109.05 110.15 107.65 111.25 106.25 112.65 105.15
Welspun Corp Ltd. NSE 247.80 250.68 245.98 253.57 244.17 255.38 241.28
Wipro Ltd. NSE 430.35 445.02 420.67 459.68 410.98 469.37 396.32
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Monday, October 25, 2010 4:04:24 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 
   US markets
 
 US markets closed in positive territory after pledge by G20 nations to avoid competitive currency devaluation weakened US dollar. Further, upside came from by a better than expected reading on September existing home sales. Early upside came after greenback hit a fresh 15-year low against the yen earlier, while it is also down against the euro and the British pound following the policy stance at G20 meeting. Sentiments were also boosted after National Association of Realtors said existing home sales jumped 10.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.53 million in September from a downwardly revised 4.12 million in August. Economists had expected sales to rise to an annual rate of 4.25 million from the 4.13 million originally reported for the previous month. While existing home sales rose for the second consecutive month, the annual rate remains 19.1 percent below the 5.60 million-unit pace seen in September of 2009.  
 
    European markets
 
 European markets closed with hefty gains led by miners in the UK and car manufacturers in Germany, as the G20 meeting's decision to avoid a currency war eased political tensions. Further, a positive economic data from the region allayed fears of a slowdown. Eurostat said new industrial orders received by euro area manufacturers rose in August and at almost twice the expected pace. The sharp rise increased optimism that the eurozone's manufacturing-led recovery could continue through to the end of the year. Car makers rose sharply in Germany after Volkswagen tripled third quarter profit, boosted by demand for passenger cars, but urged caution over the fourth quarter.  
 
    Indian markets (Prev Day)
 
 The domestic bourses ended on a cheerful note, though it gave some of its morning gains. The benchmark indices kicked off the day on a bullish note tracking strong global cues. Most of the Asian indices were traded in the positive terrain lifting the sentiment during early trade as the telephone companies and commodity producers soared, after KDDI Corp. announced a stock buyback. However, the Japanese market looked a bit jittery as exports grew at the slowest rate this year in September. Soon after the positive start market gained further momentum on the back of broadbased buying across sectors and made fresh intraday highs. But post mid-session, mild profit booking took place and the market entered into a narrow rangebound trade, paring some of the early hour gains. In the sectorial front, the Consumer Durables space was the star performer of the session gaining by 2.37%. The Auto Metal and Healthcare sectors also gave good support to the market gaining by around 1% each. Both the Nifty and Sensex closed well below their morning highs, though managing to close above the unchanged zone. The NSE Nifty closed above the 6,100 mark, while the BSE Sensex ended above the 20,300 level.  
 


IndexLatest1 D Chg(%)YTD(%)
NSE Index (25 Oct 2010) 6105.80 0.66 17.40
Sensex (25 Oct 2010) 20303.12 0.68 16.25
Dow Jones Ind. .. (25 Oct 2010) 11164.05 0.28 7.06
Nasdaq Composit.. (25 Oct 2010) 2490.85 0.46 9.77
Hang Seng (25 Oct 2010) 23627.91 0.47 8.03
Straits Times (25 Oct 2010) 3182.08 0.27 9.82
FTSE 100 (25 Oct 2010) 5751.98 0.18 6.26
CAC 40 (25 Oct 2010) 3870.00 0.04 -1.69
SectorsClose1D Chg(%)
BSE IT 6110.53 -0.37
BSEPSU 10471.74 0.34
OILGAS 11049.26 0.62
Advance Decline RatioValue(in Cr.)Exchange
3.29 727.11 SENSEX
3.55 5936.95 NIFTY
   SENSEX    NIFTY
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Hindalco Industries Ltd. 221.15 4.32 37.57
ACC Ltd. 1024.00 4.04 17.50
Tata Motors Ltd. 1184.60 2.80 49.46
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Hindalco Industries Ltd. 221.20 4.39 37.52
ACC Ltd. 1024.55 4.17 17.43
Tata Motors Ltd. 1185.65 3.20 49.79
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
Wipro Ltd. 430.30 -4.04 5.56
ITC Ltd. 169.35 -1.11 35.03
Infosys Technologies Ltd. 3019.50 -1.11 15.90
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
Wipro Ltd. 430.35 -4.13 5.48
Power Grid Corporation of Indi... 103.75 -2.95 -5.81
Sesa Goa Ltd. 335.70 -1.89 -18.28
Top

Most Active Stocks by value (in Cr)

BSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
RIL 1081.45 0.82 90.02 822666
SBI 3201.10 1.22 74.52 230148
Tata Steel 617.40 0.70 56.22 899280
L&T 2020.80 0.65 54.90 269719
ICICI Bank 1131.85 0.91 43.51 378890
 
NSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
RIL 1081.80 0.79 450.82 4118875
Tata Steel 617.50 0.45 347.36 5557203
SBI 3206.20 1.03 305.40 943249
ICICI Bank 1131.85 0.91 281.12 2448493
TCS 1040.20 2.57 273.58 2578158
 
Strike Price Value Price %Chg
   Most Active Calls by Contract Value (in Cr)
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6200.00 1713339.13 17.75 -18.31
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6100.00 1422602.66 60.50 -24.05
   Most Active Puts by Contract Value (in Cr)
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6100.00 1334717.13 26.30 110.46
NIFTY ( 28 Oct 2010 ) 6000.00 920735.67 6.60 216.67
   Most Active Future by Contracts Value (in Cr)
TATAMOTORS ( 28 Oct 2010 ) - 112571.21 1191.10 -3.03
RELIANCE ( 28 Oct 2010 ) - 110595.89 1096.40 -1.17
    Commodities
 
 Crude oil prices rose to USD 82.45 on the weaker dollar and stronger equities after disappointing results from a Group of 20 meeting reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will act to support a sputtering economic recovery. Gold also rose 1% to settle slightly below USD 1,339 , resuming its rally after its first weekly decline in nearly three months.  
 
    International News
 
 
  • U.S. existing home sales rose 10.0% in September to 4.53 million annualized units from the previous month's revised pace of 4.12 million annualized units.
  • China is expected to raise domestic fuel prices by around 3% starting on Tuesday, a Chinese consultancy said, in what would be the first hike in more than six months.
  • New industrial orders received by Euro area manufacturers rose in August and at almost twice the expected pace.new orders rose 5.3% compared with the previous month, reversing the 1.8% fall in July.
 
 
    Domestic News
 
 
  • Leading national GSM service provider Idea Cellular on Monday said the company is talking to a few top competitors for sharing 3G services, where the company doesn't have a spectrum.
  • Gurajat is planning to build an over the sea dam in the northern portion of the Gulf of Khambat (Cambay) with an investment of over Rs 50,000 crore.
  • The capital markets regulator SEBI has doubled the investment limit for individual investors in initial public offerings (IPOs) to Rs.2,00,000 to attract more retail participants into such primary issues of companies.
 
 

Global Cues:U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a fourth straight gain, after the Group of 20 nations pledged to avoid "competitive devaluation" of currencies and investors bet the Federal Reserve will announce further bond purchases next week.

CurrencyExchange-Rate1D Chg(%)1M Chg(%)
USD 44.36 -0.22 % -1.32 %
EUR 62.33 0.42 % 1.89 %
GBP 69.92 -0.09 % -1.06 %
FIIs ActivityRs. Cr.MTDYTD
Equity in flows 3878.80 78407.50 599654.70
Equity Out flows 2499.80 51221.30 488108.80
Net 1379.00 27186.20 111546.00



Market Snapshot
  22-Oct 15-Oct
Nifty

6,066.05

6,062.65

Sensex

20,165.86

20,125.05

NSE F&O Turnover (Rs. Cr)

1,40,650.01

1,37,903.25

PC Ratio

1.01

0.92

India VIX

21.61

22.65


 

Weekly Open Interest Gainers
Stocks % Change in
OI
% Change in Price

INDIANB

30.78

3.89

OPTOCIRCUI

29.79

-5.44

CANBK

28.56

13.38

GSPL

19.45

7.21

BANKINDIA

15.31

0.89




Weekly Open Interest Losers
Stocks % Change in
OI
% Change in Price

GLAXO

-54.12

2.05

GTL

-49.35

0.18

GTLINFRA

-47.73

0.45

CAIRN

-44.46

-0.93

INDIACEM

-42.16

-0.04


Technical Outlook

On daily chart Nifty exhibiting "ascending triangle" which is bullish breakout pattern if upper trend line breaks. Price is now near to upper trend line, and moving with in triangle. Technical momentum indicators are currently showing mix signals. Stochastic is currently moving in neutral zone, showing positive crossover, indicating upside. RSI is currently trading in neutral territory at 55 on the brink of showing positive crossover, indicting cautious upside. Another momentum technical indicator MACD is trading in deep positive zone, on the verge of showing negative crossover.

Derivative Outlook

During the week Nifty tumbled below its 6000 mark and dragged to make a low of 5966, a sharp pullback was than seen towards the 6100 mark. Nifty ended the week on a flat note at 6,066.05 mark. The Nifty October future ended at 6,086.05 with premium of 20 points. On the derivatives front we have seen that the Nifty Futures prices ended almost flat with a nominal shredding in open interest and increase in the cost of carry, this is an indication that market witnessed short covering from the lower levels. For the coming week the Nifty index continues to have strong supports in the zone of 5960-5900 and if that is breached selling pressure may continue to prevail and in that case the next support is seen at 5775 mark whereas on the upside immediate resistance for the index is seen at 6155 mark if we continue to manage and sustain above this mark than the pull back may be seen towards the 6240/6285 mark..

Sector Outlook

This week, buying is expected in IT, Metal, Realty and FMCG sectors from lower supports of 6,000 levels while profit booking could be seen in Pharma, Oil & Gas and Capital Goods stocks if the Nifty fails to sustain above 6,060 levels.


Derivative Strategies for the week:

Long NIFTY October 6100 Call Option and Simultaneously Short 6200 Call Option

CMP:6,066.05
View:Positive
Strategy:Bull Spread
Market Lot:50

Long RELIANCE October 1100 Call Option and Simultaneously Short 1120 Call Option

CMP: 1,081.80
View: Positive
Strategy:

Bull Spread

Market Lot: 250


FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
FII22-Oct-2010 3166.22582.19 584.01

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDate Buy ValueSell Value Net Value
DII 22-Oct-20101715.12 1388.06327.06

*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES. 

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report
-- 
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381