Friday, June 19, 2009

Market Outlook for 19th June 2009

Headlines : 19 June 2009 
  Corporate News Headline

• Tech Mahindra has received approval from the US anti-trust authority regarding its Rs. 11.54 bn open offer for the purchase of an additional 20% stake in Satyam Computer. (BS)
• Shree Renuka Sugars said that it will expand its sugar refining capacity at its Athani unit in Karnataka to 2,000 tonne per day from 1,000 tonne per day. (BS)
• ONGC is resuming operations in insurgency-hit Nagaland after a gap of 15 years and has opened a liaison office at Dimapur. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
• Inflation turned negative 1.61% for the first time in thirty years but the prices of food items like fruit and vegetables, cereals and oil were still higher than last year. (BS)
• The index of the US leading economic indicators rose 1.2% in May for a second consecutive month and a regional factory gauge climbed more than forecast in June, showing the worst recession in five decades may soon end. (Bloomberg)
• The UK retail sales unexpectedly dropped 0.6% in May for the first time in three months and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the economic recovery may be sluggish as banks ration credit. (Bloomberg)
 
Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:
Tech Mahindra, Indus Ind Bank, Bajaj HInd, M Phasis, Auro Pharma, IDBI, LIC Housing In., Central Bank, GT Off Shore & Sesa Goa.
And this is list of 10  Weak future:
TCS, Jet Airways, HDIL, Sterling Bio, Ind Hotel, Purva, India Info, GE Ship, Praj Ind & NDTV.
 Nifty is in Down Trend.
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Above 4279 level, expect short covering up to 4335-4337 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4392-4394 zone by non-stop.
Support at 4254 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 4219-4221 zone by non-stop.

Below 4163-4165 zone, expect panic up to 4106-4108 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 4449-4451 zone can take it up to 4505-4507 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop.
Now SL triggered. 3 closes below 4270 level, it can tumble up to 3990 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX
Higher opening expected. Selling should continue. 

Short-Term Investors:  
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.
Already SL triggered.
 
POSITIONAL TRADERS ONLY 
Buy RELIANCE INDS (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Recovery should start.
If trades above 1974 level, then recovery may start up to 2076 level. Above 2138 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 1974 level, then traders can expect further selling up to 1915 level.
 
Buy RELIANCE CAPITAL (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Recovery should start.

If trades above 861 level, then recovery may start up to 905 level. Above 932 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 861 level, then traders can expect further selling up to 835 level.
 
Buy RELIANCE NATURAL RESOURCES (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Recovery should start.
If trades above 88 level, then recovery may start up to 93 level. Above 95 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 88 level, then traders can expect further selling up to 85 level.
 
Buy DISH TV (I) FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.
If trades above 39 level, then uptrend may continue up to 41 level. Above 42 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 39 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 38 level.
 
Buy GVK POWER & INFRA FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.
If trades above 39 level, then uptrend may continue up to 41 level. Above 42 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 39 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 38 level.
 
 
SPOT LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   4251.40 ( -2.40 %) -104.75       
  1 2 3
Resistance 4343.75 4436.10   4496.90  
Support 4190.60 4129.80 4037.45

BSE Sensex  14265.53 ( -1.77 %) -257.31     
  1 2 3
Resistance 14534.76 14803.98 14977.24
Support 14092.28 13919.02 13649.80
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 18-Jun-2009 2037.96 2622.83 -584.87
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 18-Jun-2009 1878.4 1339.51 +538.89
 
Global Cues & Rupee  
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,555.60. Up by 58.42 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 918.37. Up by 7.66 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,807.72. Down by 0.34 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 48.21/22 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its previous close of 48.13/14.
DELIVERY BUY BASED ON FUNDAMENTALS
Steel Pipes: Times Are Changing, For The Adverse
Pipe manufacturer Man Industries is no longer planning to open a $100 million plant along the Arkansas River in Little Rock, USA. The project had fallen through because of problems financing the plant. It's just a matter of the economy and credit, and puts into poor light last years expansion by PSL and Welspun into the US market with debt funded spanking new plants with capacities exceed 300,000 tpa.

Both PSL and Welspun are looking to finance these ill-timed expansions into the USA with sizeable QIPs which will bloat Equity of both the entities. The entire sector is being hit by increased steel price, currency linked losses on Revenue translation, on the Debt for Working Capital and inability to pass on increased Raw Material costs on Fixed Price Contracts.

Financial performance of Welspun and PSL has been disastorous for PSL, Welspun, Man and Ratnamani Metals which are facing pains of over capacity as also declining orders from the middle eastern markets.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381