Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Market Outlook 4th May 2010


  Corporate News Headline
Mahindra & Mahindra said it has reported a 13.21% jump in its total automotive sales in April at 26,043 units compared with 23,004 units in the corresponding period last year. (BS)
HDFC Ltd said its net profit jumped 26.31% to Rs. 9.26 bn for the January-March quarter on the back of fall in expenditure. (BS)
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd said it has reported a 57% jump in its cement sales at 12.47 lakh tonnes. The company had sold 7.93 lakh tonnes of cement during April 2009, it said in a statement. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
An Empowered Group of Ministers on fuel pricing is likely to meet after the current Parliament session to discuss freeing petrol, diesel and cooking fuel prices from government control. (BS)
Manufacturing expanded in April at the fastest pace since 2004, propelling a US recovery that's getting a bigger lift from consumer spending. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 60.4. (Bloomberg)
Europe's manufacturing industry expanded at the fastest pace in almost four years in April as companies increased production to meet export orders. A manufacturing index based on a survey of euro-area purchasing managers increased to 57.6 from 56.6 in March, Markit Economics said. (Bloomberg)

SPOT / CASH INDEX LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   5222.75 ( -1.05 %) -55.25       
 1 23
Resistance 5264.285305.82   5332.93  
Support 5195.635168.52 5126.98

BSE Sensex  17386.08 ( -0.98 %) -172.63      
 1 23
Resistance 17499.9917613.89 17690.93
Support 17309.0517232.01 17118.11

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks: 
UCO Bank, Indian Bank, DCB, Uniphos, RNRL, Andhra Bank, Pir Health, ICSA, Vijaya Bank & Titan.  
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks: 
Renuka, ABB, Sesa Goa, Balrampur Chini, Triveni, HDIL, Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Hind & India Cement.
The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend 


NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
 Above 5234 level, expect short covering up to 5250-5252 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5266-5268 zone by non-stop. 
Support at 5212-5214 zone. Below this zone, selling may continue up to 5208 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 5203 level by non-stop. 
Below 5185-5187 zone, expect panic up to 5169-5171 zone by non-stop. 
On Positive Side, cross above 5292-5294 zone can take it up to 5308-5310 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

Short-Term Investors: 
Bullish Trend. 
Up Side Target at 5379.95 level. 
Stop Loss at 5200.05 level.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
ABB FUTURES 
ABB the power equipment and process automation major started the fiscal on a dismal note with 92% fall in its net profit (to Rs 6.63 crore) for the quarter ended March 2010 on a sales that was up by modest 5% (to Rs 1455.85 crore).  

Technicals: ABB FUTURES 
Fallen on yesterday & in line with the expectations. Real Selling too. 
Bears eyeing a Target of 701.00 level on down side. Difficult to believe, if you look at 
the Positive Global Cues. 
On Positive Side, if Start Recovers then expect a jump up to 777.00 level by non-stop and have caution.

ALBK FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
Allahabad Bank has reported faded results for the quarter ended March 2010 with 15% dip in the Net profit to Rs 224.53 crore, despite 25% increase in the Net Interest Incomer to Rs 742.60 crore. 12% dip in the other income to Rs 402.03 crore coupled with 24% rise in total provisions including taxation to Rs 433.42 crore were main drivers for the dip in the Net Profit. 

Technicals: ALBK FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
Fallen in last 5 Trading Days. Real Selling too. 
Bears eyeing a Target of 145.20 level on down side. Difficult to believe, if you look at the Positive Global Cues. 

On Positive Side, if Start Recovers then expect a jump up to 175.25 level by non-stop and have caution.

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged. 
Bull's eyeing a Target of 132.50 level on upper side. Difficult to believe, if you look at the Positive Global Cues. 
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 88.70 level and have caution.

TCS 780 PUT OPTION 
Fallen on yesterday & in line with the expectations. Bears rigged & Do not worry about this fall. 
Bears eyeing a Target of 4.00 level on down side. Difficult to believe, if you look at the
Positive Global Cues. 
On Positive Side, if Recovery Starts then expect a jump up to 35.25 level.

Equity:
SESAGOA (NSE Cash) 
The world's third-largest iron-ore exporter, may face a decline in shipments of as much as 25 percent because of softening demand in China and an increase in taxes, Federation of Indian Mineral Industries President Siddharth Rungta said April 30. 

Technicals: SESAGOA (NSE Cash) 
Yesterday's fall was a surprise. Real Selling too. 

If fall continues, then fall may continue up to 347.80 level by non-stop and have caution.

Difficult to believe, if you look at the positive global cues. 
On Positive Side, if Short Covering Starts, then expect a jump up to 428.40 level by non- stop and have caution.

RNRL (NSE Cash) 
With the Chief Justice of India KG Balakrishnan retiring on May 11, the verdict in the RIL
-RNRL case is expected any day now.

Technicals: RNRL (NSE Cash) 
This scrip went up on yesterday, in line with the expectations. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged. 
Bulls eyeing a Target of 76.80 level on upper side. 
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts, then expect a slide up to 70.20 level by non-stop and have caution.


INVESTMENT VIEW
UFLEX 
UFLEX is market leader and fully integrated player in flexible packaging in India and also biggest in Asia. It has mfg units at NOIDA in India and it went global by setting up manufacturing units at - Mexico & Egypt also. Being innovator and fully integrated, it is highly efficient and able to garner better margins.
 

·         It manufactures- PET films, BOPP films, plus have metalizing capacity, PVDC Coating facility, printing facility, Rotogravure cylinder & hologram sticker manufacturing facilities etc.

 

·         It manufactures a variety of packaging products like- cornered, profiled, sealed, reseal-able kind of pouches and packs. It also manufactures -high quality flexi tubes, flexi bottles, carry bags, paper cups etc catering to a wide range of clients.

 

·         It offers packaging solutions to FMCG companies like - HUL, Brittania, Nestle, Cadbury, P&G, Dabur, Colgate, Godrej Consumer, Castrol, Henkel, ITC, Pepsi, Coca cole, Parle, Haldiram, Perfeti, 3-M, Wrigley, Tata Tea & GSK Consumer etc.

 

·         It has large domestic capacities for making range of packaging from basic stage [see next page for details of capacities], It is setting up 52,800 MTs Polyster Film capacity at Mexico; where phase I of 26,400 MTs is in operation while second phase of 26,400 MTs will commence during this month.

 

·         Company is also setting up plant in Egypt with - 35,000 MTs BOPP capacity [Phase-I] plus 30,000 MTs of PET Films & 12,000 MTs of Cast PP film [Phase-II]. Phase -I is likely to commence soon, while Phase -II will be operational by March'11.

 

·        These expansions will boost the growth going forward and company hopes to double the topline to $1 bn [4500 Crs] by 2012.  

.       Uflex is likely to show strong growth traction in year ended March'10 [looking to 9 month results], as also in coming 2-3 years. The market leadership status in FMCG packaging, global footprints and strong fundamentals; makes it ripe for a re-rating. 
 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDate Buy ValueSell Value Net Value
FII 03-May-20101553.32 1940.37-387.05
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
DII03-May-2010 829.57936.58 -107.01

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381