Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Market Outlook for 28.01.09

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
Godrej Industries reported Q3'09 results; total revenue increased 20% yoy to Rs. 7.93 bn however, net profit declined 81% yoy to Rs. 50 mn. (BS)
The Department of Telecom appointed Mumbai-based auditor Parekh & Co to scrutinise the accounts of Reliance Communications and its subsidiaries under a special audit to ascertain if there is any violation of revenue reporting norms to avoid payment of licence fees. (BS)
Maruti Suzuki has raised the prices of some of its vehicles by Rs. 5,000 to Rs. 10,000 due to increased input costs and foreign currency changes. (ET)


Economic and Political Headline
The RBI said that the central government's fiscal deficit would shoot up from the earlier estimate of 2.5% to 5.9% of the value of the country's total economic output translating into a deficit escalation from Rs. 1,503.1 bn to Rs. 3,547.31 bn, as per the central bank's estimate of the GDP at Rs. 60,124 bn. (ET)
In a move to help non-banking finance companies and mutual funds meet their liquidity requirements, the RBI has extended its special repo window till September 30, 2009. (ET)
The Consumer confidence (The Conference Board's index) in the US sank to 37.7, the lowest level on record in January, as jobs evaporated and home values sank, signalling a further slide in spending at the start of 2009. (Bloomberg)


NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 2787 level, rally may continue up to 2815-2817 zone for time being.

Support at 2748 & 2757 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 2717-2719 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2689-2691 zone.
Below 2604-2606 zone, panic may continue up to 2575-2577 zone. Buy if touches this zone. Stop Loss at 2537-2539 zone.
On Positive Side, above 2844-2846 zone it can zoom up to 2863-2865 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then rally may continue.
Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX
There is a chance of false signal. Traders can expect rally further.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 8060 level on down side.

On Positive Side, short rallies up to 9072 level can be used to exit. Maintain a Stop Loss at 9409 level for your short positions too.

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures: Visual Soft,Power Grid,NTPC,Auro Pharma,Polaris,Hero Honda,Infosys Tech,Cipla,GMR Infra & Reliance.

And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
Satyam Comp,Divis Lab,Punj Lloyd,IVRCL Infra,Zeel,Orient Bank,PNB,Tata Steel,LT & Hindalco.
Nifty is in Down Trend.

FII DATA for 27th Jan
FII -228.56 Cr
DII +139.64 Cr

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,174.73. Up by 58.70 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 845.71. Up by 9.14 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,504.90. Up by 15.44 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 48.94/95 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Friday's close of 49.27/29.
TECH Stocks May Zoom

Trading Calls 28th Jan 2009

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Buy TCS-499 above 505 for 522 with sl 497 [Trading]

Buy Wipro-226 above 230 for 245 with sl 226

Short Hindzinc-350 @ 360 for 345 with sl 365

Buy Ster-267 above 271 for 285 with sl 168 [Expected Breakout]

Buy Jindalstel-876 above 885 for 920 with sl 878

Buy Cairn-161 for 169 with sl 160 [Breakout]

Buy Crompgreav-131 for 143 with sl 130

Buy HeroHonda-857 for 910 with sl 850 [positional]

+ve to Market :

1. US Market 2. SGX nifty 3. Satyam Issue 4. Reduction expected petrol/diesel price 5. Expected RBI rate cuts in coming days 6. Expected Inflation below 5%

-ve to Market

: 1. Continous selling by FII 2. DII selling 3. Expected slowdown/Q3Results 4. Rs.Vs$ 5. Sentiment 6. There is no delivery based buying by investors 7. Asian Market (Mixed) 8. RBI's projection on GDP 9. Global meltdown in employment 10. Cost cutting measures in various sectors through exmployment

NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index 2771.35( 3.46 %) 92.80
123
Resistance2804.02 2836.68 2896.07
Support 2711.97 2652.58 2619.92

BSE Sensex 9004.08( 3.80 %) 329.73
123
Resistance 9087.68 9171.28 9320.59
Support 8854.77 8705.46 8621.86

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381