Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Market Outlook for 2nd June 2009

Intraday Calls 02ndJun 2009
+ve Sector, Scripts :
BUY M&M-712 for a target 735 stop loss 705
BUY ABB-667 for a target 682 stop loss 660
Breakout Calls
BUY 3IInfo-80 for a target 90 stop loss 77.50
Expected Breakout Calls
BUY ACC-829 above 835 for a target 865 stop loss 822
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
 IVR Prime, Brigade, Ansal Infra, NIITL Ltd., Voltas, Hotel Leela, Indusind Bank, HCC, Unitech & Finan Tech.
And this is list of 10  Weak :
Sunpharma, Cipla, Dabur, Hind Uni Lvr, Tata Tea, Lupin, Bharti Airtel, Colpal, ITC & Dr.Reddy.
 Nifty is in Up Trend .
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 4539-4541 zone, rally may continue up to 4560 level by non-stop.

Support at 4519 & 4528 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4485-4487 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4453-4455 zone by non-stop.

Buy if touches 4400-4402 zone. Stop Loss at 4368-4370 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 4592-4594 zone can take it up to 4624-4626 zone. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop. 
BSE SENSEX:
Higher opening expected. Uptrend should continue. 
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.
3 closes above 14931 level, it can zoom up to 16157 level.
 
INVESTMENT BUY:
Buy UNITECH (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.

If trades above 90 level, then buying may continue up to 95 level. Cross above 97 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 90 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 87 level.
 
Buy SUZLON ENERGY (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.

If trades above 111 level, then buying may continue up to 117 level. Cross above 120 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 111 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 108 level.
 
Buy RELIANCE INDS (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.

If trades above 2225 level, then buying may continue up to 2339 level. Cross above 2409 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 2225 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 2158 level.
 
Buy RELIANCE NATURAL RESOURCES FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.

If trades above 86 level, then buying may continue up to 91 level. Cross above 94 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 86 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 84 level.
 
Buy NAGARJUNA FERTILIZERS FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.

If trades above 43 level, then buying may continue up to 45 level. Cross above 46 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 43 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 41 level.
 
Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,721.44. Up by 221.11 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 942.87. Up by 23.73 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,795.34. Up by 54.35 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 46.94/95 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Friday's close of 47.11/12. 
 

NSE Nifty Index   4529.90 ( 1.82 %) 80.95       
  1 2 3
Resistance 4566.73 4603.57   4661.73  
Support 4471.73 4413.57 4376.73


 

BSE Sensex  14840.63 ( 1.47 %) 215.38     
  1 2 3
Resistance 14946.46 15052.30 15197.78
Support 14695.14 14549.66 14443.82
 
fii data
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 01-Jun-2009 3595.98 3316.31 279.67
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 01-Jun-2009 1660.4 1857.14 -196.74
 
C&C Constructions: Knowing the Road Ahead

BSE 532813; CMP Rs 164.45
 Delhi based C&C Constructions is moving from strength to strength energised by the solid increase in its order book. The order book as of March 2009 stood at Rs 3050 crore, with 40 per cent slated for commissioning in the FY10 ending June and 50 per cent in FY11. 

The latest wins include sizeable stretches of Road Construction in the first phase of development initiated by "The Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation Limited-A GOI entity", that will ultimately link interior Bihar with Kanpur and then on to Bombay. 

In size, scale and magnitude the "Dedicated Freight Corridor" will be equally mammoth, just like the NDA Government showpiece, the "Golden Quadrilateral"and the "NSEW corridor".   

Another show piece project bagged from UNPO/World Bank/ADB is the construction of the Parliament in Afghanistan, the new Indian Chancery in Kabul and massive highways in Afghanistan.   

Additionally, there are 4 under-ground parking lots to be constructed in Gandhinagar, Hauz Khas, Munirka and Model Town, sponsored and funded by the Municipal Corporation of Delhi in anticipation of the Commonwealth Games 2010 New Delhi.   

Further, a Rs 300 crore Inter State Bus Terminus is to be built up as a Grassroot project in Mohali, on a BOT basis wherein C&C will operate the terminus for the first 20 years before handing it over to the Haryana Government, and retaining the Commercial Development at the ISBT for another 99 years thereafter.   

Financials 
So what does all of the above translate into? For FY09 (June ending) C&C is likely to report Revenues of close to Rs 800 crore with after tax profits of Rs 29 crore. This works out to an EPS of Rs 16 and gives the stock a PE of 10 at the present juncture, which is half the PE multiple that IVRCL, Nagarjuna and HCC are fetching.   

Secondly, for FY10, Revenues will rise 50 per cent to roughly Rs 1200 crore, with after tax profits of Rs 44 crore or a FY10 EPS of Rs 24, thereby giving the stock a forward PE of 6. The current valuations do not fully reflect the strength of C&C.   

Focus on ramping up operations 
C&C's order book has touched INR 30.5 bn, providing revenue visibility in the medium term. Indian operations contribute 86 per cent to the order book with the remaining coming from Afghanistan. All projects are funded by the GOI, State level entities or multilateral bodies like the United Nations, ADB and World Bank taking away payment risk.   

The roads sector dominates the order book with a 61 per cent share, followed by a 25 per cent share of the buildings segment; railways account for the balance.   

C&C's order book has more than doubled in the past six months. This has been accompanied by a surge in revenues, which highlights the company's efforts towards ramping up its operations.   

The company has decided to fund its current phase of growth through debt, keeping in mind the unfavourable equity markets. Thus, the increasing order book and top line have been accompanied by an uptick in debt levels.   

Going forward, while the company expects its top line growth to continue at current levels, interest charges are likely to ease in the near future, as general lending rates move down in the country, and with a new Government both in Delhi and the Centre led by the Congress-UPA alliance, the purse strings are likely to be loosened for infrastructural projects.   

The stalled Golden Quadrilateral, and NSEW project is also going to be pushed forth with fresh Road Construction orders of as much as Rs 40,000 crore to be allotted in the next few months.   

There is thus sufficient Revenue and Earnings visibility as far as C&C is concerned for the next three years.   

Outlook   
C&C is an interesting play on the construction space, with a sizeable and growing order book and exposure to high-margin markets like Afghanistan. The promoter interest in the stock remains a high 70 per cent, another 15 per cent rests with MFs/FIs and FIIs with marquee names like United India Assurance, two infra related schemes of HDFC MF and Deutsche Securities Mauritius.   
The stock can double in value by December 2009. BUY.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381