Market Outlook 26th Feb 2010

	4859.75	( 0.02 %)	1.15
		1	2	3
Resistance		4881.40	4903.05	4925.95
Support		4836.85	4813.95	4792.30

	16254.20		( -0.01 %)	-1.77
			1	2	3
Resistance			16333.31	16412.42	16495.51
Support			16171.11	16088.02	16008.91

Strong & Weak Stocks

This is list of 10 strong
Glaxo, JSW Steel, Orient Bank, Pir Health, Infosys Tech, Chennai Petro, HCL Tech, Titan, LT & Hero Honda.  

And this is list of 10 Weak 

Bajaj Hind, ICSA, EKC, FSL, Dish TV, Renuka, Polaris Software, MLL, Balrampur Chini & Tata Comm.

Nifty is in Up trend  

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):

Below 4845 level, expect profit booking up to 4837-4839 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4818-4820 zone by non-stop. 

Hurdles at 4873 & 4878 levels. Above these levels, rally may continue up to 4897-4899 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4910-4912 zone by non-stop. 

Cross above 4916-4918 zone, can take it up to 4929-4931 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution. 

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4812-4814 zone. Stop Loss at 4792-4794 zone.

Short-Term Investors:

Bearish Trend. 

Down Side Target at 4666.70. 

Stop Loss at 4923.50.

Equity:

SBIN (NSE Cash) 

Scrip should have been gained yesterday. Surprisingly closed negatively. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 1875 level. 

Stop Loss at 1954 level.

TATAMOTORS (NSE Cash) 

Fallen on yesterday & it was expected. Bears have beaten expectations. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 612 level. 

Stop Loss at 694 level.

UNITECH (NSE Cash) 

Scrip should have been gained yesterday. Surprisingly closed negatively. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 68.65 level. 

Stop Loss at 73.55 level.

 

IBREALEST (NSE Cash): 

 Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 5 days. 

KOTAKBANK (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 8 days. 

UNIONBANK (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 7 days. 

CROMPGREAV (NSE Cash): 

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 15 days. 

PIRHEALTH (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 4 days. 

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 5100  CALL OPTION 

Listless trading yesterday. Recovery should happen. 

 

If Profit Booking Continues, then slide may continue up to 42.55 level. 

If Short Covering Starts, then it may face resistance at 66.50 level.

INFOSYSTCH 2600 CALL OPTION 

Should have fallen yesterday. Instead, zoomed & Superb performance by Bulls. Uptrend should continue today. 

If rally continues, then it may continue up to 106.00 level. 

If Profit Booking starts, then slide may continue up to 64.00 level.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

GVKPIL FUTURES  

Uptrend expected on yesterday & Bulls exceeded expectations. Superb work & Uptrend should continue today also. 

Buy with a Stop Loss of 41.40 level for Intra-Day Gains. Target at 46.00 level.

RECLTD FUTURES  

Rallied yesterday, but within expected target. Uptrend should continue today & expected to perform well up to 05.03.2010. 

Buy with a Stop Loss of 215 level with a Target of 240 level. It may zoom up to 250 level on (or) before 05.03.2010. 

Stop Loss on (or) before 05.03.2010, should be at 206 level.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	25-Feb-2010	2363.07	2957.85	-594.78

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	25-Feb-2010	2363.07	2957.85	-594.78

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer:

"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 25th Feb 2010

	4858.60	( -0.24 %)	-11.45
		1	2	3
Resistance		4881.22	4903.83	4927.12
Support		4835.32	4812.03	4789.42

	16255.97		( -0.19 %)	-30.35
			1	2	3
Resistance			16327.13	16398.28	16468.13
Support			16186.13	16116.28	16045.13

Strong & Weak  Stocks

This is list of 10 strong stocks: 

Glaxo, Siemens, JSW Steel, Orient Bank, Mcdowell-N, Titan, Hdfc Bank, Hindalco, HCL Tech & Aurobindo Ph.  

And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks: 

Bajaj Hind, FSL, ICSA, EKC, Dish TV, Polaris Software, DLF, Balrampur Chini, Renuka & Suzlon.

Nifty is in Up trend  

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):

Above 4873 level, expect short covering up to 4878-4880 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4894-4896 zone by non-stop. 

Support at 4843 & 4852 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 4835-4837 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4820-4822 zone by non-stop. 

Below 4815-4817 zone, expect panic up to 4799-4801 zone by non-stop. 

On Positive Side, cross above 4899-4901 zone can take it up to 4915-4917 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution. 

Short-Term Investors:

 

Bearish Trend. 

Down Side Target at 4666.80. 

Stop Loss at 4927.90.

Equity:

RELIANCE (NSE Cash) 

Fall expected on yesterday& Surprisingly closed higher. Do remember that, Bulls also lacking power. 

Buy for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 1007 level. 

Stop Loss at 949 level.

LT (NSE Cash) 

Fall expected on yesterday & Surprisingly closed higher. Do remember that, Bulls also lacking power. 

Buy for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 1563 level. 

Stop Loss at 1471 level.

JSWSTEEL (NSE Cash) 

Rally expected on yesterday & managed to close positively. Bull's Performance was Below expectations. Rally may continue today also, but do remember that Bulls also lacking power. 

Buy for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 1131 level. 

Stop Loss at 1035 level.

 

RECLTD (NSE Cash): 

 Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 7 days. 

MARUTI (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 2 days. 

JPASSOCIAT (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 2 days. 

IVRCLINFRA (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 3 days. 

HCLTECH (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 2 days. 

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 4900  PUT OPTION 

Listless trading yesterday. No Clear Trend for Today. 

If Profit Booking Continues, then slide may continue up to 24 level. 

If Short Covering Starts, then it may face resistance at 70 level.

TATASTEEL 560 PUT OPTION 

Fall expected. Bears have beaten expectations. No Clear Trend for Today. 

 

If selling Continues, then slide may continue up to 0.25 level. 

If short covering starts, then it will face resistance at 5.90 level.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

POLARIS FUTURES  

Fallen yesterday. But should have fallen more & Below expectations. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell with a Stop Loss of 156 level for Intra-Day Gains. Target at 140 level.

BGRENERGY FUTURES  

Fall expected. But, Bears have beaten expectations. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell with a Stop Loss of 475 level with a Target of 443 level.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	24-Feb-2010	2354.15	1868.61	485.54

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	24-Feb-2010	870.45	1025.12	-154.67

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer:

"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 24th Feb 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks

This is list of 10 strong Stocks 

Glaxo, Siemens, Axis Bank, Titan, Sun Pharma, Mphasis, Hdfc Bank, Hindalco, Hero Honda & JSW Steel.  

And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks: 

Bajaj Hind, Balrampur Chini, ICSA, FSL, EKC, DLF, GVKPIL, MLL, KFA & Suzlon.

Nifty is in Up trend  

	4870.05	( 0.28 %)	13.65
		1	2	3
Resistance		4891.72	4913.38	4942.67
Support		4840.77	4811.48	4789.82

	16286.32		( 0.30 %)	49.27
			1	2	3
Resistance			16347.86	16409.41	16493.88
Support			16201.84	16117.37	16055.82

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):

Below 4849 level, expect profit booking up to 4825-4827 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4803-4805 zone by non-stop. 

Hurdle at 4877-4879 zone. Above this zone, rally may continue up to 4881 & 4884 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 4899-4901 zone by non-stop. 

Cross above 4906-4908 zone, can take it up to 4928-4930 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution. 

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4796-4798 zone. Stop Loss at 4774-4776 zone.

Short-Term Investors:

Bearish Trend. 

Down Side Target at 4666.80. 

Stop Loss at 4927.90.

Equity:

AXISBANK (NSE Cash) 

Listless trading yesterday. This scrip should have been gone up & Surprisingly closed negatively. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 1046 level. 

Stop Loss at 1143 level.

TWL (NSE Cash) 

Fall expected yesterday. But bears have beaten expectations. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 370 level. 

Stop Loss at 370 level.

SBIN (NSE Cash) 

Listless trading yesterday. This scrip should have been gone up & Surprisingly closed negatively. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 1877 level. 

Stop Loss at 1945 level.

 

RELCAPITAL (NSE Cash): 

 Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 3 days. 

INFINITE (NSE Cash): 

 Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 3 days. 

ORBITCORP (NSE Cash): 

 Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 2 days. 

FORTIS (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 6 days. 

HINDZINC (NSE Cash): 

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 3 days. 

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 4900  CALL OPTION 

Listless trading yesterday. No Clear Trend for Today. 

If Profit Booking Continues, then slide may continue up to 4 level. 

If Short Covering Starts, then it may face resistance at 42 level.

TATASTEEL 580 CALL OPTION 

Listless trading yesterday. No Clear Trend for Today. 

If rally continues, then rally may be capped upside at around 9.45 level. 

Support at 3.70 level. If profit booking starts, then it can slide up to this level.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

UNIPHOS FUTURES  

Bulls dominated yesterday. Bulls will dominate today also. 

Buy with a Stop Loss of 155 level for Intra-Day Gains. Target at 174 level.

PATNI FUTURES  

Bulls dominated yesterday. Bulls will dominate again today also. But do remember that, they will not able to maintain uptrend up to expiry. 

Buy with a Stop Loss of 468 level with a Target of 508 level. Up side limited up to same 508 level on (or) before expiry. 

Stop Loss up to expiry should be at around 458 level.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	23-Feb-2010	2000.06	1449.37	550.69

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	23-Feb-2010	838.21	1017.95	-179.74

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer:

"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."

-- 

Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 23rd Feb 2010

	4856.40	( 0.24 %)	11.50
		1	2	3
Resistance		4897.00	4937.60	4963.15
Support		4830.85	4805.30	4764.70

	16237.05		( 0.28 %)	45.42
			1	2	3
Resistance			16376.41	16515.78	16608.32
Support			16144.50	16051.96	15912.59

Strong & Weak Stocks

This is list of 10 strong stocks

Glaxo, Axis Bank, Titan, Educomp, Siemens, Hero Honda, Indusind Bank, Chennai Petro, Hdfc Bank & McDowell-N.  

And this is list of 10 Weak stocks

Bajaj Hind, DLF, Balrampur Chini, ICSA, HDIL, Suzlon, FSL, Praj Ind, Bharti Airtel & EKC.

Nifty is in Up trend  

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):

Profit Booking up to 4837-4839 zone will be healthy. 

Hurdles at 4867 & 4876 levels. Above these levels, buying may continue up to 4884-4886 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4910-4912 zone by non-stop. 

Cross above 4952-4954 zone, can take it up to 4978-4980 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution. 

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4794-4796 zone. Stop Loss at 4769-4771 zone.

Short-Term Investors:

 Bearish Trend. 

Down Side Target at 4666.80. 

Stop Loss at 4927.90.

Equity:

RELIANCE (NSE Cash) 

Fallen yesterday. But Bears should have been dominated more. Below expectations. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 938 level. 

Stop Loss at 1000 level.

UNITECH (NSE Cash) 

Fallen yesterday. But Bears should have been dominated more. Below expectations. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 63.75 level. 

Stop Loss at 72.25 level.

DLF (NSE Cash) 

Fallen yesterday. But Bears should have been dominated more. Below expectations. Selling may continue today also. 

Sell for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 265 level. 

Stop Loss at 299 level.

EDSERV (NSE Cash): 

 Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 4 days. 

TATACOFFEE (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 3 days. 

MINDTREE (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 2 days. 

JKTYRE (NSE Cash): 

 Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 3 days. 

CANBK (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 3 days.

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 4900  CALL OPTION 

Good recovery & could not able to hold on gains. No Clear Trend for Today. 

If rally continues, then rally may be capped upside at around 54 level. 

Support at 13 level. If profit booking starts, then it can slide up to this level.

TATASTEEL 560 CALL OPTION 

Fantastic move by Bulls. Uptrend should continue. 

If rally continues, then rally may be capped upside at around 34 level. 

Support at 5 level. If profit booking starts, then it can slide up to this level. 

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

DENABANK FUTURES  

Bears should have been dominated. Instead, Bulls dominated & they have beaten expectations also. Superb Performance by Bulls. Uptrend should continue today also. 

 Buy with a Stop Loss of 77.25 level for Intra-Day Gains. Target at 82.05 level.

HINDALCO FUTURES  

 Bulls tried their best yesterday. But their performance was below expectations. Bulls should not get excited today. But they will rig up on (or) before expiry. 

 Buy with a Stop Loss of 144 level with a Target of 157 level. Up side limited up to 161 level on (or) before expiry. 

Stop Loss up to expiry should be at around 141 level.

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer:

"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 22nd Feb 2010 & Weekly Update

Strong & Weak stocks 

This is list of 10 strong stocks: 

Titan, Axis Bank, Glaxo, Orchid Chem, Indusind Bank, Siemens, Chennai Petro, McDowell-N, BEL & Bajaj Auto.  

And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 

Bajaj Hind, DLF, Balrampur Chini, ICSA, Praj Ind, Renuka, Suzlon, Bharti Airtel, Recltd & EKC.

Nifty is in Up trend  

	4844.90	( -0.88 %)	-42.85
		1	2	3
Resistance		4886.28	4927.67	4968.03
Support		4804.53	4764.17	4722.78

	16191.63		( -0.83 %)	-136.21
			1	2	3
Resistance			16304.19	16416.74	16531.55
Support			16076.83	15962.02	15849.47

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):

Above 4873 level, expect short covering up to 4884-4886 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4917-4919 zone by non-stop. 

Support at 4840-4842 zone. Below this zone, selling may continue up to 4831 & 4836 levels and thereafter slide may continue up to 4807-4809 zone by non-stop. 

Below 4774-4776 zone, expect panic up to 4742-4744 zone by non-stop. 

On Positive Side, cross above 4950-4952 zone can take it up to 4983-4985 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:

Bearish Trend. 

Down Side Target at 4666.80. 

Stop Loss at 4927.90.

Equity:

LT  (NSE Cash) 

Closed Positively. But below expectations. Bulls should not get excited at higher levels. 

Buy for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 1520 level. 

Stop Loss at 1417 level.

ABGSHIP (NSE Cash) 

Excellent work by Bulls. Surprise move & this scrip should have been closed negatively. But closed positively and Bulls were more (or) less on Target. Stunning performance. Bulls should not get excited today. 

Buy for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 273 level. 

Stop Loss at 242 level.

ORCHIDCHEM (NSE Cash) 

Excellent work by Bulls. They have beaten expectations also. Bullish Trend may continue today also. 

Buy for Intra-Day Gains with a Target of 188 level. 

Stop Loss at 164 level.

EDUCOMP (NSE Cash): 

 Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 12 days. 

STCINDIA (NSE Cash): 

 Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 12 days. 

BHARTISHIP (NSE Cash): 

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 3 days. 

FINANTECH (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 2 days. 

BARTRONICS (NSE Cash): 

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 14 days.

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 4800  PUT OPTION 

Although profit booking was there, but we should appreciate Bulls for their excellent work. Bullish Trend may continue today also. 

If rally continues, then rally may be capped upside at around 76 level. 

Support at 7 level. If profit booking starts, then it can slide up to this level.

TATASTEEL 560 PUT OPTION 

Fantastic move by Bulls. No Clear Trend for Today. 

 

If rally continues, then rally may be capped upside at around 14 level. 

Support at 7 level. If profit booking starts, then it can slide up to this level.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

BAJAJHIND FUTURES  

Fallen heavily. But yesterday's fall was below expectations. This scrip should have fallen more. Bearish Trend should continue today also. 

Sell with a Stop Loss of 170 level for Intra-Day Gains. Target at 151 level.

CHAMBLFERT FUTURES  

Yesterday's fall was totally surprising. Bulls should have dominated & Instead Bears dominated. Selling may continue Today. Bulls need not lose heart & Short Covering expected on (or) before expiry. 

Sell with a Stop Loss of 74.40 level with a Target of 60.80 level. Down side limited up to same 60.80 level on (or) before expiry. 

Stop Loss up to expiry should be at around 75.80 level.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	19-Feb-2010	1965.83	1947.92	17.91

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	19-Feb-2010	1075.33	1472.46	-397.13

Index Outlook: Awaiting Budget day gyrations

Sensex (16,191.6)

The week ahead promises edge-of-the-seat excitement as the Union Budget jamboree unfolds. The Railway Budget will get things chugging on Wednesday followed by the much-prognosticated Union Budget on Friday. Thursday will be livened up by the Economic Survey and expiry of February derivative contracts.

Low expectations of market participants from the Finance Minster this year can help ward a steep decline in stock prices unless the Finance Minster makes a special effort to irk investors. Volumes were very low in the cash segment implying that many on the street are currently perched on the fence. Derivative volumes, however, spiked higher especially towards the later half of the week. High open interest, exceeding Rs 1,20,000 crore can cause volatility before the F&O expiry.

FIIs were buying enthusiastically in the first three sessions of the week but they turned cautious towards the weekend. Interestingly, domestic institutional investors, who were net buyers in most sessions in 2010 turned sellers last week. India VIX closed at its highest point this year at 31.9 implying that traders too expect volatility to spike next week.

Sensex took one step higher last week though it was thwarted at 16,480. Daily oscillators are giving mixed signals. Weekly oscillators spent another week in bearish zone though they moved sideways. The minor 39-points gain last week has resulted in a long-legged doji star in the weekly chart that denotes indecision and the possibility of a move in either direction.

The Union Budget is one annual event that makes the market record very large moves in a single session. These moves tend to have a major impact on the medium-term trajectory of the index. It is impossible to predict how the budget document will read or even more important, how the market will react to this document. Here are some trajectories that the Sensex can take if the budget is good, bad or neutral.

a) A budget that meets with thumping approval from market can take the Sensex to 17,000 or 17,500. The medium-term trend in the index will turn neutral in this event and we can expect a sideways movement between 15,500 and 18,000 in the months ahead.

b) An insipid budget akin to that presented last July that leaves market cold will be unable to take the Sensex past 17,000. This will keep the medium-term outlook negative and leave open the possibility of a move down to 15,780 or 15,725 again.

c) If the Finance Minster gives enough fodder to the bears to wreak havoc with stock prices, the Sensex can decline to 15,330 or 14,867.

For the week ahead, the Sensex can stay choppy in the range between 16,000 and 16,500 in the run-up to the budget day. The short-term view will stay negative as long as the index stays below 16,500, leaving open the possibility of short-term decline to 15,800 or 15,651. The 200-day moving average at 15,800 should act as a reliable support at least till Friday. Targets on rally above 16,500 are 16,775 and 17,000.

Nifty (4,844.9)

Nifty moved beyond 4,844 last week but it could not get past the resistance at 4,930 and reversed lower. The index could whipsaw in the range between 4,780 and 4,950 in the days before the budget. Decline below 4,780 will drag it to 4,716 or 4,675. The 200-day moving average at the second support should cushion any pre-budget declines. Resistances above 4,930 are at 5,024 and 5,067.

To map the budget-day moves for Nifty,

a) If market is happy with the budget, Nifty can rally to 5,067 or 5,200. The medium-term trend will turn sideways in this scenario.

b) A neutral reaction to the budget will maintain status quo with the Nifty unable to move beyond 5,000 and a decline to 4,700 likely in near term.

c) A very negative reaction to the budget can take the index to 4,538 and the retracement target of 4,478.

It is only the brave-hearts who can trade the pre and post budget gyrations in the market. The more placid souls can enjoy the market calisthenics from the sidelines.

Global Cues

Despite the Federal Reserve's sudden hike in discount rate by 25 basis points, US equities rallied from lower levels on Friday to end the week on a high. The Dow has closed in the positive on all the four sessions of last week to end 303 points higher. This index has also powered past the short-term resistances at 10,200 to end the week at key short-term trend deciding level of 10,400. If the rally continues next week, then the index will be on the way to a fresh 2010 high and could start eyeing the long-term target of 11,300 once again.

European and Latin American markets too had a strong week and benchmarks in these countries closed 4 to 6 per cent higher. They are however poised half-way up the 2010 correction and the movement next week will show if the down-move will prolong or if the indices will head for a new yearly high. Asian indices were however more subdued and closed marginally in the positive or with losses.

The CBOE VIX progressed lower over the week and closed at 20.7, well below its recent peak of 29.2. Commodities too had a strong week and Reuters CRB index closed 2.5 per cent higher, clambering above its medium-term trend line again.

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer:

"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381