Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Market Outlook 4th Jan 2010

Strong & Weak  
This is list of 10 strong 
Hexaware, Hind Oil, Praj Ind, Hind Zinc, Ispat Ind, Alok Ind, Nagar Cons, Orchid Chem, Godrej Ind & BalramPur Ch. 
And this is list of 10 Weak 
Recltd, SCI, PFC, Welcorp, India Info, Indian Bank, Hind Petro, BPCL, Dr Reddy & Oriental Bank.
The daily trend of nifty is in Up trend 

Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 6175.036192.47 6206.38
Support 6143.686129.77 6112.33
Sensex Resistance 20640.23 20719.42 20774.03
Support 20506.43 20451.82 20372.63

Scripts to watch on 4th Jan. : ACC, Bhartiatl,  Bhel, BPCL, Bajaj-Auto, DLF, HDFCBank,  ICICIBank, IDFC,  L&T, M&M, Maruti, ONGC, Reliance, SBI, TataMotors, TataPower, Tisco,  Bajaj-Auto, DrReddy, HDFC,  SesaGoa,


Market Outlook
 
 

Yesterday, Nifty gained 23 points to close at 6,157.6. Nifty has formed "Double bottom" in daily chart and break out was seen in last week with healthy volumes, which is a strong bullish signal. Nifty is likely to open on a positive note following strong clues from global markets which rose after upbeat reports on US manufacturing sector and construction spending. Resistance for Nifty now seems at 6,180-6,225 while support stand at 6,130-6080. On upside if level of 6,180 breached decisively then we could see rise up to the mark of 6,225. On downside, the first support will be 6,130, followed by the 6,080. Volatility index, which is hovering around 15-17 %, is expected to shoot up to 20-21 % in the coming days so investors should refrain from selling options.

The advance tax numbers were encouraging for the third quarter, clearly reflecting the continued good showing of Indian companies. Therefore, we believe that FII investors will continue to invest in India's as Indian markets increasingly became one of the most attractive destinations in the world. Even though the Nifty has bounced back from the lows, the volume is comparatively low which indicates lack of participation in the market raising some concerns. With BPLR rate hike by banks, we expect a surge in banking counters. Buying could be witnessed in Metal stocks due to Asset rebalancing by commodity indexes.

Nifty has crossed 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, sketched from the recent top and bottom (6,336 & 5700) and now likely to face stiff resistance at 71.4% level which stands at 6,180 level. Technical indicators like MACD, RSI are also supporting its uptrend move. MACD is showing positive divergence, crossing its signal line from the below. Further, MACD is above the zero line, would set-up for a more long-term. The RSI also looks strong at 64 with plenty of upside potential before any over-sold indications.

 
 
    Tip for the day
 
 

TIMKEN (BUY)

  • RSI is close to the overbought zone at the level of 78 and indicating uptrend.
  • MACD is showing positive divergence.
  • Stock next resistance level seems at 220 if its break then stock could rise up to 230.
  • Today stock has made new candlestick above 34 day EMA which is sign of uptrend.
CMPBuy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

211.20

BUY

214/218/222

206

190/240

JBF INDUSTRY (BUY)

  • RSI is at 56 level, indicating more buying.
  • MACD is showing positive divergence.
  • Stochastic is hovering in neutral zone showing positive crossover.
CMPBuy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

190.10

BUY

192/196/200

186

170/210

JINDAL SOUTH WEST HOLDING (BUY)

  • RSI is showing a reversal trend after a sharp correction.
  • MACD is showing positive divergence.
  • Stochastic is at 70 levels and it has given a buy crossover.
CMP Buy/SellTarget Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance

1,585

BUY

1,600/1,620/1,640

1,560

1,520/1,680

EVERONN (BUY)

  • RSI is close to the overbought zone at the level of 70 and indicating uptrend.
  • MACD has given a buy crossover indicating an uptrend.
  • Stochastic is moving in overbought territory showing positive crossover also indicating upside.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

702.05

BUY

710/720/730

685

650/750

 
 
    US markets
 
 US markets closed on upbeat note after report showed that manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in seven months in December. Early in the day, Institute for Supply Management said its index of activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 57.0 in December from 56.6 in November. Adding to positive mood, Commerce Department reported that total construction spending increased by 0.4% in November following a 0.7% increase in October. On corporate front, Bank of America rose sharply after the bank agreed to resolve disputes with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by paying more than USD 2.6 billion to settle claims it sold loans based on faulty information. After a two week thin trade volumes were strong.  
 
    European markets
 
 European markets started the first day of 2011 in positive terrain led by Auto stocks such as Volkswagen AG and Peugeot SA. Stocks made early gains on hopes that Chinese measures to slowdown overheating economy may be working. Further, investors cheered reports better than expected growth in Eurozone manufacturing sector. Markit survey of purchasing managers at factories across Eurozone area showed that PMI rose to 57.1 from 55.3 in November. Meanwhile, FTSE remained close for holiday.  
 
    Indian markets (Prev Day)
 
 The domestic bourses closed the first trading session of the year 2011 on a cheerful note as the benchmark indices closed well above the neutral line, maintain the fourth straight session of winning streak. The market kicked off the session on a bullish note, as the benchmark indices witnessed a gap up opening tracking strong Asian cues. Soon after the positive start, the market started trading volatile on the higher side. The morning gains were pared off and again the peaks were re-tasted during the session. The market entered a tight range and traded sideways for the rest of the session. Although the market shed off some of its intraday gains, it managed to finish off in the positive terrain with decent gains. The metal space remained in limelight throughout the session as steel stocks climbed on reports that the steel prices are set to go up by about 5% later this week due to higher raw material prices, making it the second price hike in two months in the world''s fastest growing steel market after China. The positive start for the European bourses also well supported the upmove in the domestic arena. The Nifty gained 0.38% ending at 6,157.60 touching an intra day high of 6,178.55 and a low of 6,147.20. The Sensex too gained 0.25% ending at 20,561.05 touching an intra day high of 20,664.80 and a low of 20,531.00.  
 

IndexLatest1 D Chg(%)YTD(%)
NSE Index (03 Jan 2011) 6157.60 0.38 0.38
Sensex (03 Jan 2011) 20561.05 0.25 0.25
Dow Jones Ind. .. (03 Jan 2011) 11670.75 0.81 0.81
Nasdaq Composit.. (03 Jan 2011) 2691.52 1.46 1.46
Hang Seng (03 Jan 2011) 23436.05 1.74 1.74
Straits Times (03 Jan 2011) 3235.77 1.43 1.43
CAC 40 (03 Jan 2011) 3900.86 2.53 2.53
DAX (03 Jan 2011) 6989.74 1.09 1.09
SectorsClose1D Chg(%)
BSE IT 6816.98 -0.12
BSEPSU 9516.36 0.59
OILGAS 10598.82 -0.02
Advance Decline RatioValue(in Cr.)Index
1.90 672.67 SENSEX
2.50 4477.36 NIFTY
   SENSEX    NIFTY
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Tata Steel Ltd. 703.40 3.60 3.60
Sterlite Industries (India) Lt... 192.30 3.05 3.05
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. 862.50 2.43 2.43
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Sesa Goa Ltd. 340.10 3.52 3.52
Tata Steel Ltd. 704.05 3.48 3.48
Sterlite Industries (India) Lt... 192.25 3.00 3.00
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
Bajaj Auto Ltd. 1476.65 -4.21 -4.21
Wipro Ltd. 482.90 -1.50 -1.50
NTPC Ltd. 198.05 -1.27 -1.27
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
Bajaj Auto Ltd. 1476.50 -4.19 -4.19
Wipro Ltd. 483.05 -1.67 -1.67
NTPC Ltd. 198.45 -1.10 -1.10
Top

Most Active Stocks by value (in Cr)

BSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
Tata Steel 678.95 3.60 162.02 2315837
SBI 2811.05 0.35 89.72 316334
Tata Motors 1306.30 0.01 42.78 325140
RIL 1058.25 -0.39 40.07 378399
Hero Honda 1986.10 -0.04 26.81 135375
 
NSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
Tata Steel 680.40 3.48 465.63 6654183
SBI 2811.90 0.36 313.76 1106007
RIL 1058.70 -0.29 252.20 2379838
Tata Motors 1308.35 0.01 220.75 1678140
InfosysTechn 3442.75 0.45 217.61 631068
 
Strike Price Value Price %Chg
   Most Active Calls by Contract Value (in Cr)
BANKNIFTY ( 27 Jan 2011 ) 12000.00 1535.83 203.10 -6.67
BANKNIFTY ( 27 Jan 2011 ) 11800.00 184.84 291.45 -3.91
   Most Active Puts by Contract Value (in Cr)
   Most Active Future by Contracts Value (in Cr)
TATASTEEL ( 27 Jan 2011 ) - 112815.44 707.95 -3.44
SBIN ( 27 Jan 2011 ) - 61265.38 2835.25 -0.25
    International News
 
 
  • Malaysian export sector regained strength in November after considerable slowdown in the past several months. Exports expanded 5.3% year-on-year to MYR 52.70 billion in November, much faster than the 1.3% rise in October. On the other hand, annual growth rate in imports nearly halved to 6.1% from 12.5% in October with the value reaching MYR 43.7 billion. (RTT News)
  • Spanish car sales increased by 3.1% in 2010 from the previous year. For the full year, car sales totaled 9,82,015 units. Car sales decreased continuously after the government stopped car scrappage scheme at the end of June 2010. The association said registrations fell 23.9% on an annual comparison in December to 68,942 units.(RTT News)
  • POSCO said that it will develop resources in Africa, Siberia and polar areas to achieve 200 trillion won (USD177.5 billion) in total group sales in 2020. (Economic Times)
 
 
    Domestic News
 
 
  • The railway business unit of the Larsen & Toubro has bagged orders worth Rs. 1,103 crore from three power plants and Balco to construct railheads to link the power plants to the main railway network. (NDTV Profit)
  • Public sector carrier, Air India, has posted cash profit of Rs 21.66 crore in November 2010, a record in recent times for the cash-strapped national carrier. Air India said on Monday that it was largely possible due to significant improvement in efficiency parameters, coupled by better yield management strategies and a growing number of passengers showing faith in the national carrier. (The Hindu)
  • Tata Power has scrapped a USD 300-million worth stake sale agreement in two of its overseas coal mining arms to Hong Kong-based private equity fund Olympus Capital. The power company indicated that the deal was called off because of the private equity firm's inability to fulfil certain pre-conditions in the investment agreement. (The Times of India)
  • Micro-finance institutions (MFIs) are planning to take legal action against YES Bank's move to recall a part of its loans to them. However, they intended to first write to the bank to withdraw its circular on loan recall before moving the banking ombudsman, said a chief finance officer of an MFI which had taken a loan from the bank. (Business Standard)
  • The country's largest power producer NTPC is likely to float the Rs 17,000 crore tender for sourcing super-critical equipment for its upcoming projects, this month-end. (Business Standard)
 
 
FIIs ActivityRs. Cr.MTDYTD
Equity in flows 1929.10 1929.10 1929.10
Equity Out flows 1312.40 1312.40 1312.40
Net 616.70 616.70 616.70