Market Outlook 4th Nov 2010

Scripts to watch today :  Bhartiatl, Biocon, BPCL, DLF, HCL Tech, HeroHonda, Kotak Bank, Maruti, Relcap, Rcom, RelInfra, Reliance, SBI, Sterlite, TataMotors, TataPower, Tisco, Wipro

 

Market Outlook
	Yesterday, Nifty closed the volatile session on a positive note above 6,150 at 6,160.50 indicating a bullish trend. From here, Nifty could find its immediate resistance at 6,220-6,230 and moving above this it could take Nifty to 6,250-6,280 however on downside support could be seen at 6,135-6,120. Indian market is likely to open on a positive note following positive cues from global markets after the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to stimulate the sluggish U.S. economy came above investor expectation. Further, Coal India Ltd is likely to make a firm debut today which will provide support to the markets. Buying could be seen in Banking, Telecom, PSU and IT stocks.

Tip for the day
	BAYERCROP (BUY) RSI is trading in neutral territory, currently at 62, showing positive crossover indicating uptrend. Stochastic is at 61, moving towards overbought territory, showing positive crossover, also indicating upside. MACD is trading in positive zone, showing bullish crossover also indicating uptrend. CMP Buy/Sell Target Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance 1097.95 BUY 1112/1126/1140  1078 1040/1155 ADANIPOWER (BUY) RSI is trading in neutral territory, currently at 62, showing positive crossover indicating uptrend. Stochastic is at 81, just entered into oversold territory from neutral, showing positive crossover indicating further upside. MACD is trading in negative zone, on the brink of showing positive crossover, also indicating uptrend. Expecting sharp upside if level of 144 breaches decisively. CMP Buy/Sell Target Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance 140.20 BUY 142/143/144 138 135/144 KSOIL (SELL) RSI is at 64, trading in neutral territory, on the verge of showing negative crossover indicating correction. Stochastic is at 82, moving in oversold territory, showing positive crossover, indicating limited downside. MACD is trading in negative zone, on the brink of showing bearish crossover suggesting correction. Expecting wide correction if level of 58.80 breaches decisively. CMP Buy/Sell Target Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance 59.45 SELL 58.45/57.80/57 60.80 57/61

TRADING CALLS

BUY KTKBANK SL 190 T 225 235 & BUY SYDBANK SL 142 T 152 158 & BUY BOESCH SL 6320 T 6500 6600 & BUY GREATOFF SL 372 T 402 412 & BUY BAJAJAUTO SL 1540 T 1640 1680 & BUY MNM SL 750 T 770 780 & BUY SBIBANK SL 3221 T 3300 3340 & BUY PTC SL 134 T 145 150 & BUY GESHIP SL 325 T 370 390 & SELL RPOWER SL 169 T 151 147 & BUY SAIL SL 186 T 200 206 & BUY DLF SL 339 T 365 370 & BUY TISCO SL 600 T 620 630 & BUY ONGC SL 1310 T 1350 & BUY LIC SL 1287 T 1340 1360 & BUY HINDCOPPER SL 432 T 488 & BUY MADRASCEM SL 122 T 139 & BUY MUNDRAPORT SL 155 T 176 & BUY ORACEL SL 2290 T 2600 & BUY TATACEM SL 390 T 448 & SELL MNM SL 752 T 688 & SELL UCOBANK SL 129 T 113

Strong & Weak stocks

This is list of 10 strong stocks: 

ABG Ship, Alok Ind, SRE Infra, Chambal Fert, Titan, Dena Bank, Dish TV, ICSA, Nagar Fert & Canara Bank. 

And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 

Finan Tech, BRFL, Sail, Educomp, OnMobile, Pir Hearth, Idea, LITL, Apollo Tyre & Orbit Corp.

The daily trend of nifty is in Downtrend 

• Supp / Resis SPOT/CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY

Indices		Supp/Resis	1	2	3
	Nifty	Resistance	6179.73	6198.97	6215.43
		Support	6144.03	6127.57	6108.33
	Sensex	Resistance	20527.63	20589.53	20640.25
		Support	20415.01	20364.29	20302.39

 

SPOT/CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY TRADING

Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3 ABG Shipyard Ltd. NSE 471.90 484.60 459.00 497.30 446.10 510.20 433.40 Alok Industries Ltd. NSE 28.65 29.33 28.23 30.02 27.82 30.43 27.13 Apollo Tyres Ltd. NSE 73.05 74.72 71.27 76.38 69.48 78.17 67.82 Bank of Baroda NSE 1033.60 1041.73 1026.73 1049.87 1019.87 1056.73 1011.73 Bank of India NSE 504.30 510.93 500.13 517.57 495.97 521.73 489.33 Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1300.00 1306.67 1287.67 1313.33 1275.33 1325.67 1268.67 Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company Ltd. NSE 618.30 627.40 612.40 636.50 606.50 642.40 597.40 Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd. NSE 223.85 227.60 221.00 231.35 218.15 234.20 214.40 Canara Bank NSE 745.80 753.85 740.20 761.90 734.60 767.50 726.55 Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. NSE 92.45 98.17 86.87 103.88 81.28 109.47 75.57 Dena Bank NSE 141.65 143.43 140.43 145.22 139.22 146.43 137.43 Dish TV India Ltd. NSE 62.70 64.93 59.53 67.17 56.37 70.33 54.13 Dishman Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals Ltd NSE 176.15 179.30 174.50 182.45 172.85 184.10 169.70 Educomp Solutions Ltd. NSE 548.90 556.55 543.90 564.20 538.90 569.20 531.25 Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. NSE 1038.90 1051.18 1020.98 1063.47 1003.07 1081.38 990.78 ICSA-India Ltd. NSE 147.35 152.53 140.08 157.72 132.82 164.98 127.63 Idea Cellular Ltd. NSE 66.50 68.58 65.28 70.67 64.07 71.88 61.98 India Cements Ltd. NSE 118.75 120.07 117.47 121.38 116.18 122.67 114.87 India Infoline Ltd. NSE 120.35 122.97 118.77 125.58 117.18 127.17 114.57 Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd. NSE 224.15 229.48 219.83 234.82 215.52 239.13 210.18 Indiabulls Power Ltd. NSE 28.05 28.40 27.85 28.75 27.65 28.95 27.30 Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd. NSE 189.80 193.13 187.33 196.47 184.87 198.93 181.53 Indiabulls Securities Ltd. NSE 26.95 27.43 26.63 27.92 26.32 28.23 25.83 Indian Bank NSE 301.05 305.53 297.53 310.02 294.02 313.53 289.53 Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys Ltd. NSE 791.05 839.33 728.43 887.62 665.82 950.23 617.53 Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. NSE 423.45 426.30 421.30 429.15 419.15 431.30 416.30 Indian Overseas Bank NSE 173.35 175.57 170.07 177.78 166.78 181.07 164.57 Indraprastha Gas Ltd. NSE 327.20 333.58 322.93 339.97 318.67 344.23 312.28 IndusInd Bank Ltd. NSE 279.90 283.40 276.90 286.90 273.90 289.90 270.40 Lanco Industries Ltd. NSE 62.25 63.13 61.68 64.02 61.12 64.58 60.23 Lanco Infratech Ltd. NSE 63.00 64.08 62.28 65.17 61.57 65.88 60.48 Nagarjuna Construction Co. Ltd. NSE 152.70 153.97 151.22 155.23 149.73 156.72 148.47 Nagarjuna Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. NSE 37.45 39.03 35.93 40.62 34.42 42.13 32.83 NSE Index NSE 6160.50 6179.73 6144.03 6198.97 6127.57 6215.43 6108.33 OnMobile Global Ltd. NSE 325.80 333.02 321.57 340.23 317.33 344.47 310.12 Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. NSE 176.50 179.48 171.93 182.47 167.37 187.03 164.38 Sterlite Technologies Ltd. NSE 82.45 84.23 81.33 86.02 80.22 87.13 78.43 Titan Industries Ltd. NSE 3833.05 3861.70 3808.75 3890.35 3784.45 3914.65 3755.80

*LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Wednesday, November 03, 2010 4:03:10 PM

#1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1

#2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2

#3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3

The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE.

US markets
	US markets managed to close with modest gain after Federal Reserve announced slightly higher than expected bond purchase plan and economic data came better than expected. Market managed to edge higher in the early trade after Automatic Data Processing reported that private-sector employment increased by 43,000 jobs in October following a revised decrease of 2,000 jobs in September. Further, positive bias came after Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index rose to 54.3 in October from 53.2 in September. Also, Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods increased by 2.1% in September after coming in nearly unchanged in August. However, markets slipped during the mid-trade as investors awaited Fed's quantitate easing announcement. Later, markets managed to recoup from losses after Federal Reserve announced to purchase up to USD 600 billion in long-term bonds, above market expectations of USD 500 billion.

European markets
	European markets pared early gains and closed in red as investors eyed announcement of quantitative easing by Federal Reserve. Markets managed to edge higher in the afternoon trade led by auto and banking sectors after strong results from German car marker BMW and French bank Societe Generale. Some optimism were also generated after purchasing managers' index (PMI) of activity at UK service sector companies rose to 53.2 last month, up from 52.8 in September, and beating expectations of a fall to 52.5. However, markets fell towards the close, ahead of the pronouncement of quantitative easing by Federal Reserve.

Indian markets (Prev Day)
	The domestic bourses ended the session on a cheerful note, as broad based buying across sectors helped the market to close in the positive terrain. The markets kicked off the session on an upbeat note as strength prevailed soon after the opening due to positive global cues. The morning sentiment was lifted as the Asian stocks rose after Westpac Banking Corp.'s earnings surged, commodity prices rose and Deutsche Bank AG raised its estimate for South Korea's Kospi index. Soon after the start, the markets gained further momentum and the benchmarks headed further northwards. Gradually a range was formed and the markets were seen trading sideways till the final thirty minutes. A sudden plunge was seen towards the end but it remained shortlived as benchmarks were pulled back smartly to close above the 6,150 Nifty mark. In the sectorial front, the Metal and Auto space remained in limelight due to emergence of significant buying interest and gained by 1.55% and 1.21% respectively. However, the Oil&Gas space remained weak and declined by nearly 0.50%. Both the Nifty and Sensex showed strength throughout the session, though tumbled mildly towards the end. The NSE Nifty closed above the 6,150 mark, while the BSE Sensex above the 20,450 level. Global Cues:U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ending near its highest levels of the day, after the Federal Reserve's announcement of $600 billion of Treasury purchases sent banks higher.

Index Latest 1 D Chg(%) YTD(%) NSE Index (03 Nov 2010) 6160.50 0.68 18.45 Sensex (03 Nov 2010) 20465.74 0.59 17.18 Dow Jones Ind. .. (03 Nov 2010) 11215.13 0.24 7.55 Nasdaq Composit.. (03 Nov 2010) 2540.27 0.27 11.95 Hang Seng (03 Nov 2010) 24144.67 2.00 10.39 Straits Times (03 Nov 2010) 3224.97 0.61 11.30 FTSE 100 (03 Nov 2010) 5748.97 -0.15 6.21 CAC 40 (03 Nov 2010) 3842.94 -0.59 -2.37 Sectors Close 1D Chg(%) BSE IT 6091.06 0.30 BSEPSU 10330.49 0.66 OILGAS 10847.25 -0.49 Advance Decline Ratio Value(in Cr.) Exchange 2.63 640.76 SENSEX 2.13 5180.85 NIFTY

SENSEX    NIFTY Top Gainers Close 1D Gain(%) YTD(%) Sterlite Industries (India) Lt... 176.10 3.74 -18.25 Tata Motors Ltd. 1185.30 2.72 49.55 ACC Ltd. 1083.25 2.49 24.30 Top Gainers Close 1D Gain(%) YTD(%) Sterlite Industries (India) Lt... 176.50 3.88 -18.25 Tata Motors Ltd. 1185.55 2.71 49.78 Sun Pharmaceutical Industries ... 2249.30 2.69 49.08 Top Losers Close 1D Loss(%) YTD(%) Cipla Ltd. 346.90 -1.10 3.37 Reliance Communications Ltd. 180.25 -1.02 4.25 Reliance Industries Ltd. 1065.25 -0.85 -2.22 Top Losers Close 1D Loss(%) YTD(%) Reliance Communications Ltd. 180.45 -1.23 4.70 Idea Cellular Ltd. 66.50 -1.04 14.56 Cipla Ltd. 347.25 -1.00 3.64

Top

Most Active Stocks by value (in Cr) BSE Close %Chg Value(in Cr.) Volume SBI 3202.00 2.19 111.76 343748 RIL 1074.35 -0.85 95.28 888139 Tata Steel 598.20 1.87 65.54 1075630 ICICI Bank 1230.50 0.58 54.79 440894 L&T 2133.25 0.66 42.95 200332   NSE Close %Chg Value(in Cr.) Volume RIL 1074.85 -0.89 489.01 4557947 SBI 3201.85 2.21 435.47 1339229 ICICI Bank 1231.35 0.59 401.22 3226833 Tata Steel 599.05 1.76 304.33 4992288 L&T 2133.20 0.74 241.85 1126956   Strike Price Value Price %Chg    Most Active Calls by Contract Value (in Cr) NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 6300.00 626547.19 72.90 -18.04 NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 6200.00 594079.24 116.85 -14.81    Most Active Puts by Contract Value (in Cr) NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 6100.00 498365.11 85.70 13.89 NIFTY ( 25 Nov 2010 ) 6000.00 453736.19 55.50 16.31    Most Active Future by Contracts Value (in Cr) CHAMBLFERT ( 25 Nov 2010 ) - 95073.69 92.85 -6.35 SBIN ( 25 Nov 2010 ) - 89019.53 3279.00 -1.74     Commodities     Crude prices rose above USD 84 per barrel after report showed that US oil product inventories fell sharply last week. Higher than expected quantitative easing by Federal Reserve also boosted the oil prices. Gold prices declined on concerns that Federal Reserve's announcement of bond purchase may boost economy.         International News     Global cargo firm FedEx announced it will acquire Indian logistics company AFL and its affiliate Unifreight India and complete the transaction by February next year. This acquisition will give FedEx a more robust domestic ground network and added capabilities in India. (Economic Times) Swiss retail sales grew 3.8% in September. This was much slower than the 2.2% growth September last year. While sales of food, beverages and tobacco increased 2.9% compared to September last year, non-food sales rose 5.1%. (RTT News) German car maker BMW published bumper third-quarter earnings and increased its forecast for the year as well. Earnings climbed Euro 874 mn from Euro 78 mn this time last year. Revenues rose 36% to Euro 15.9 bn. (ADVFN)         Domestic News     Tata DOCOMO, the GSM arm of Tata Teleservices Limited, has said that it would launch its 3G services in nine telecom circles across the country on November 5, the Diwali day. It would become the first private operator to launch 3G services in the country with technology support from its Japanese partner NTT DOCOMO. (Hinudstan Times) The country's top two carmakers Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai Motor witnessed significant declines in export during October, as they shifted attention to meet the rising domestic demand ahead of the festive season. (Economic Times) Pipavav Shipyard has received licence for warship production from the department of industrial policy and promotion, making it the first shipyard in the private sector to receive such a licence. The licence allows the shipyard to bid for construction of submarines, destroyers, frigates, LDP, coverettes as also aircraft carriers. (domain-B)     Currency Exchange-Rate 1D Chg(%) 1M Chg(%) EUR 62.11 0.31 % 0.49 % GBP 71.10 -0.38 % 0.24 % USD 44.36 -0.16 % -0.40 % FIIs Activity Rs. Cr. MTD YTD Equity in flows 3729.40 14855.20 629047.20 Equity Out flows 2800.80 7445.10 508714.30 Net 928.60 7410.10 120333.00

Derivatives EOD Report on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/derivative-strategy/derivative-EOD-03-Nov-2010.htm

*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES. 

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report

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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381