Thursday, March 11, 2010

Market Outlook for 11th March 2010

NSE Nifty Index   5116.25 ( 0.29 %) 14.75       
 1 23
Resistance 5138.425160.58   5183.77  
Support 5093.075069.88 5047.72

BSE Sensex 17098.33 ( 0.27 %) 45.79      
 1 23
Resistance 17178.5917258.84 17334.18
Support 17023.0016947.66 16867.41

Strong Stocks

This is list of 10 Strong Futures: Hero Honda, Sintex, Orient Bank, Ambuja Cement, Acc Ltd, Sesa Goa, Siemens, M&M, Pir Health & HDFC
Weak Stocks
This is the list of 10 Weak Futures: Bajaj Hind, Balrampur Chini, Chambal Fert, Renuka, Mphasis, Pantaloon Retail, Tulip, Tech Mahindra, BPCL & ICSA
Nifty is in Up Trend

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 5133-5135 zone, rally may continue up to 5139 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 5150-5152 zone by non-stop. 
Support at 5097 & 5108 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 5078-5080 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5067-5069 zone by non-stop. 
Buy if touches 5062-5064 zone. Stop Loss at 5051-5053 zone. 
On Positive Side, cross above 5155-5157 zone can take it up to 5172-5174 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 
Up Side Target at 5239.70. 
Stop Loss at 5050.30.

Equity:
ICICIBANK (NSE Cash) 
Yesterday's fall should be considered as a speculative selling.  

If down trend continues, then this scrip can touch 903.90 level during intra-day trades. It should close below 903.90 level for further selling too. 

If short covering starts, then bears have to run up to 948.10 level and have caution.

TATAMOTORS (NSE Cash) 
Yesterday's rally should be considered as a speculative rally. Bulls lacked power even in intra-day trades itself. 

If rally continues, then it can touch 795.35 during intra-day trades. It should close above this level for further uptrend. 
Stop Loss for is too far on down side at 756.10. 

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5100 CALL OPTION 
Unexpected rally & surprisingly Bulls beaten expectations. Rally may continue & this rally should be considered as a speculative rally. 
If rally continues, then expect a jump up to 102.35 level by non-stop. 
Unexpectedly if profit booking starts, then it can tumble up to 57.95 level by non-stop and have caution.

RELIANCE 1020 CALL OPTION 
Unexpected rally & surprisingly Bulls beaten expectations. Rally may continue & this rally should be considered as a speculative rally. 
If rally continues, then expect a jump up to 22.55 level by non-stop. 

Unexpectedly if profit booking starts, then it can tumble up to 11.25 level by non-stop and have caution.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
BRFL FUTURES 
Nice move on yesterday & but unexpected rally and Bulls beaten expectations. Uptrend should continue. Bulls should not get scared at lower levels. 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 202 level for Intra-Day Gains. Target at 236 level.

IBREALEST FUTURES 
Nice move on yesterday & unexpected rally too. Uptrend should continue today & rally may not sustain up to 12.03.2010. 
Buy with a Stop Loss of 169 level with a Target of 187 level. It may zoom even up to 190 level on (or) before 12.03.2010. 
Stop Loss on (or) before 12.03.2010 should be at 166 level.

Sugar Stocks Get A Pasting, As Myth Of Cane Shortfall Gets Exploded!
Balrampur, Bajaj, Dhampur, Oudh Sugar suddenly seem Over-valued 

With cane yields surpassing expectations, sugar production in Uttar Pradesh looks set to cross 45 lakh tonnes (lt) during the ongoing 2010-11 season (October-September), with mills continuing to crush well into next month.

Ratoon crush 
"Last year, I got hardly 45 quintals a bigha, whereas this time it is 65 quintals," said Mr S.P. Tyagi, a 45-bigha grower from Ghatauli village in Baghpat district (4.8 bighas make an acre; 65 quintals translates into 31 tonnes an acre or 77 tonnes a hectare).

Many farmers Business Line interacted with in the Baghpat-Meerut belt of western UP reported yields of 60-65 quintals a bigha, which was 15-20 quintals more than last year.

Mills usually crush two crops of cane in a season. The first one, from November to January, is the "ratoon" that grows from the stubble of the previously harvested plant-cane.

Thus, the "ratoon" crushed during December-January 2009-10 was the offshoot of the plant-cane harvested last February-March, whereas the cane currently being crushed is the crop that was planted last March-May.

It is the yields of the plant-cane, which mills have been crushing from early February, that have beaten all expectations. The ratoon crop is normally much more productive than the plant-cane.

Plant cane
But this time, the latter's average yield of 65-70 tonnes a hectare, has been close to the 70 tonnes for the ratoon, according to Mr D.P. Sharma, Vice President, Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd (BHL).

"While ratoon yields have gone up by 10-15 quintals, the real increase has happened in the plant-cane, where last year's average was just 45 tonnes a hectare," noted Mr Sharma, who manages BHL's sugar mill at Kinauni near Meerut.

During the 2008-09 season, the Kinauni unit crushed 78.76 lakh quintals of cane.

"This time, we were initially projecting a crushing of some 85 lakh quintals, but have already crossed 96 lakh and are now likely to do 115 lakh quintals. Nobody anticipated plant-cane yields to be so good," Mr Sharma added.

Mr Nand Kishore, a 12-bigha grower from Puth Khas village in Meerut, ascribed the improved yields to "no disease or pest attacks unlike last year". Absence of disease, however, represents only part of the story. The real stimulus has come from high cane prices.

Stimulator
Mills here are now paying Rs 261 a quintal, compared to last season's average Rs 150-155. High prices, in turn, have induced farmers to tend their crop better, by way of applying more fertilisers and giving timely irrigations.

The impact of this can be seen across UP. During 2008-09, mills in the State produced 40.64 lt of sugar. At the start of the season, the State Government estimated this season's output to be lower at 39.6 lt. But as on March 7, production had already touched 41.84 lt and the latest official projection for the whole season is 45.28 lt. 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

Gujarat Gas: The Transformational Power Of Natural Gas!
Gujarat Gas-Expansion Of City Gas (Piped and CNG) Distribution and Higher Allocations From KG Basin could transform the Energy Scene in India.

India is continuing to move forward with market-oriented economic reforms that began in 1991. Recent reforms include liberalized foreign investment and exchange regimes, industrial decontrol, significant reductions in tariffs and other trade barriers, reform and modernization of the financial sector, significant adjustments in government monetary and fiscal policies, and safeguarding intellectual property rights.


Energy demand including oil & gas has increased in tandem with economic growth. India's petroleum product consumption has doubled in last fifteen years. Current consumption of petroleum products in the country is about 120 MMTPA.


Production of oil in the country is around 33 MMTPA for last few years. India currently imports over 70% of its crude oil requirements. Economic growth is linked to the growth of energy sector and it is expected that oil demand in India would grow three fold by 2020. The demand for gas is expected to grow at a faster rate than oil. The large finds in the east coast of India are expected to ease the situation.

The search for and development of India's petroleum resources have now acquired an added urgency. This urgency stems from widening gap between the demands of the nation on the pat of vibrant industrial growth and the availability of oil and natural gas to fuel this growth.

One of the great success stories in the six decades since independence has been the growth and development of the Indian petroleum industry. In the past 60 years, the country witnessed growth of oil production from a mere 0.25 MMT of oil and 3 billion cubic feet of gas in 1947-48 to around 33 MMT today. What started off as a minuscule production from one small oil field in the rain forests of upper Assam has today blossomed into major activity in several areas of onland and offshore of India.

The Government of India, with Directorate General of Hydrocarbons as a nodal agency, formulated the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) in 1997-98 to provide a level playing field to all the parties to compete on equal terms for award of exploration acreage. Government of India's commitment to the liberalization process is reflected in NELP, which has been formulated keeping in mind the immediate need for increasing domestic production.

This has been a landmark event in the growth of the upstream oil sector in India. The terms and conditions of this open and transparent policy rank amongst the most attractive in the world. To attract more investment in oil exploration and production, NELP has steered steadily towards a level playing field resulting in a healthy spirit of competition between National Oil Companies and private companies.

The oil and gas sector in India is fast emerging as the new destination for world business. Opportunity and initiative make a perfect meeting ground for world technologies in petroleum and natural gas exploration, production, refining, distribution and marketing.


The growing demand for energy has effected changes in the market environment and in policies, culminating in total decontrol of the petroleum sector since April 1, 2002. This has opened up the hydrocarbon sector of a country of one billion people where the demand has been growing at the rate of 5-6% per annum, well above the world average."  
 
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
FII10-Mar-2010 2713.872349.51 364.36
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
DII10-Mar-2010 1101.781477.2 -375.42

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381