Market Outlook for 21st July 2009

Intraday Calls 21st Jul 2009
Buy Cairn-246 @ 240 for a target 246-252 stop loss 235
Buy ACC-844 @ 835 for a target 856 stop loss 827
Buy KotakBank-673 for a target 690 stop loss 667 

 

NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS

RESISTANCE

4528

4572

4614

SUPPORT

4500

4480

4436

4394

4325

4283

Buy ALLAHABAD BANK,HCL TECHNOLOGIES

 

Stocks that are in news today:
From Agencies: Indiabulls Financial Services sells shares worth $200 million to institutions at Rs 171/share
Ranbaxy gets okay to make, market Ran-Amlodipine in Canada
US SEC seeks India's permission to probe Satyam: PTI
Spinnaker Cap looking to sell 25% stake in Sanghi Industries – Mint

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Rally may continue up to 4528 level for time being.

Support at 4480 & 4500 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4436-4438 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4394-4396 zone by non-stop.

Buy if touches 4325-4327 zone. Stop Loss at 4283-4285 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 4570-4572 zone can take it up to 4612-4614 zone. If crosses and sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 3906 level, it can zoom up to 4600 level by non-stop. 

BSE SENSEX:  
Higher opening expected. Uptrend should continue. 

Short-Term Investors: 
 Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 15379 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 13220 level for your long positions too.
 

POSITIONAL  BUY:
Buy ALLAHABAD BANK (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 82 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 88 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 93 level then

uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 77 level for your long positions too.
 
Buy HCL TECHNOLOGIES (NSE Cash) 

Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 228 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 245 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 256 level then

uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 217 level for your long positions too.
  

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Sesa Goa,HCL Tech,DCHL,Polaris, Wipro,TechM,Indusind Bank,Grasim,Yes Bank and Hero Honda.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Orchid Chem,Nagarjuna Fert, Sintex Indus, Bajaj Hind, Suzlon, KSOILS, Pantaloon, GTL INFRA, Chambal Fert and Moser Baer
 Nifty is in Up Trend.

 

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	20-Jul-2009	2498.66	1935.46	+563.2

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	20-Jul-2009	1473.82	1321.97	+151.85

 

SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	4502.25	( 2.91 %)	127.30
		1	2	3
Resistance		4549.07	4595.88	4681.47
Support		4416.67	4331.08	4284.27

	15191.01		( 3.03 %)	446.09
			1	2	3
Resistance			15315.52	15440.04	15670.71
Support			14960.33	14729.66	14605.14

Global Cues & Rupee  
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,848.15. Up by 104.21 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 951.13. Up by 10.75 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,909.29. Up by 22.68 points.

The partially convertible rupee closed at 48.21/22 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Friday's close of 48.73/74.
 
 Interesting findings on web:
Stocks jumped again Monday, giving the Dow Jones industrials their sixth straight advance, as investors gotmore robust earnings news from big companies and data that suggests the economy is closer to a recovery.

A 100-point gain pushed the Dow back into the black for the year, while the Standard & Poor's 500 climbed to its highest finish since November.

Wall Street's best-known index ended at its highest level since Jan. 6. The last time the Dow was this high stocks were just about to endure a steep drop that left the blue chips at a 12-year low on March 9.

The Dow is up 35 percent from its March low but still down 37.5 percent from its record of 14,164.53 in October 2007.

The S&P 500 index rose 10.75, or 1.1 percent, to 951.13, its best finish since Nov. 5. November's lows last year came after months of brutal selling as the financial crisis intensified in the fall with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Investors had hoped the November lows would be the bottom of the market's retreat but stocks slid further by March.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 22.68, or 1.2 percent, to 1,909.29, its ninth straight advance. The index is at its highest mark since Oct. 3, during the most furious selling of the credit crisis.

With the bulk of earnings reports still to come, the market has yet to hear from some key industries including retailing. If those results are disappointing, it could force investors to rethink their most recent rally. Several factors are still hanging over the market including record-high unemployment and a damaged housing market.

Goldman Sachs said that it believed that the S&P 500 would enjoy its best second-half rally since 1982, and boosted its forecast for the index, predicting a 15 per cent jump from its closing level 919.32 on June 30, to 1,060 on December 31.

Shares in Johnson Controls , the car-parts maker that has had to restructure following the bankruptcies of major carmakers, jumped after the company announced its first quarterly profit since last autumn. Cost cuts helped the company make up for disappointing demand and its shares climbed 7.25 per cent to $23.08.

Alcoa , the aluminium maker, which is particularly sensitive to growth, rose 3.72 per cent to $10.60, while Halliburton , the oilfield services company edged 4.44 per cent higher to $22.33 after it announced revenue and profits ahead of estimates.

In the financial sector M&T Bank rose 4.9 per cent to $57.11 after the company's earnings beat expectations and Rene Jones, the chief financial officer said credit costs remained in line with the bank's expectations and "continue to remain favourable" compared with the industry. But other banks fared less well - Citigroup and Bank of America both lost a chunk of last week's impressive gains as investors digested mixed analysts reports following their earnings last week, which beat estimates only after large one-off gains.

Citigroup gave up 7.62 per cent to $2.79 and Bank of America fell 5.04 per cent to $12.24.

Shares in Human Genome Sciences soared 276 per cent to $12.51 after it said that a trial showed that its experimental drug to cure lupus helped half the patients tested. This would be the first new treatment in decades for the disease, for which there is no cure.

Bank of America ( BAC - news - people ) lost 5% after an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton lowered his rating on the firm and cut his profit estimates. Citigroup ( C - news - people ) shares lost 8% in regular trading after announcing plans to issue $2.5 billion worth of 30-year bonds.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch upped Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) to "buy," saying the second quarter could mark a bottom for the construction sector.

Credit Suisse upgraded Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) to "outperform," writing that field checks indicated improving business trends throughout the quarter.

Morgan Stanley lifted Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) to "overweight" from "equal-weight" as part of a larger call on the media sector, which the firm upgraded to "attractive."

Also in company news, Human Genome Sciences Inc (HGSI.O) soared 221.7 percent to $10.68 after its experimental lupus drug was successful in a late-stage clinical trial.

Halliburton (HAL.N), Johnson Controls (JCI.N), Eaton (ETN.N) and Hasbro (HAS.N) were among the companies that advanced on quarterly results that impressed investors.

CIT in private deal to avoid bankruptcy -source.

Caterpillar, Cisco and Disney all upgraded by analysts.

Nasdaq touches intraday high for 2009.

Companies scheduled to report quarterly results after the close include Texas Instruments Inc (TXN.N), Legg Mason Inc (LM.N) and Zions Bancorp.

Despite warning of significant risk of a "double-dip" recession, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 1,060 from 940 -- a boost of 12 percent from current levels.

On Monday, an index gauging the U.S. economy's prospects increased for a third straight month in June, suggesting the recession was drawing to a close, the Conference Board said.

The index of leading economic indicators gained 0.7 percent in June, exceeding economists' forecasts, and following May's revised increase of 1.3 percent.

CIT Group soared 79 percent. The lender said after the close of trading it reached a funding agreement with bondholders.

CIT Group, which provides financing to nearly 1 million small businesses, agreed to a $3 billion loan for 2.5 years from a group of its bondholders as it seeks to restructure its debt and avoid bankruptcy.

CIT, founded in 1908, is a lender to around 1 million mostly small and midsize businesses ranging from restaurants and private schools to clothing makers. It also leases railcars, aircraft and equipment, and it has a large business providing, cash to manufacturers and collecting on their invoices.

For years, CIT funded its activities largely by selling bonds - only to find itself in trouble when credit markets frozeup a year or so ago.

CIT Group Inc secured a $3 billion loan facility from its bondholders on Monday and said it plans a comprehensive restructuring of its liabilities, but gave few details.

With the emergency loan, the 101-year-old lender to small and mid-sized businesses warded off a threat of imminent bankruptcy, but many experts questioned its ability to survive in the current form.

An even busier week of earnings reports will further shape investors' view of the economy. Reports are due Tuesday from industrial equipment maker Caterpillar Inc. and drug maker Merck & Co.

Oil prices rose 42 cents to settle at $63.98 a barrel. Gold rose, while the dollar was mixed.

Bond prices rose, pushing yields lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.60 percent from 3.66 percent late Friday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may outline his strategy tomorrow for exiting history's biggest monetary expansion in testimony to Congress.

Treasuries rose, pushing yields down from the highest levels in almost four weeks, amid speculation Bernanke may ease inflation concerns. The dollar dropped to a six-week low against the euro.

Ten-year note yields fell the most in six days before the central bank chairman's semiannual economic report to lawmakers at 10 a.m. tomorrow in Washington.

"The focus of Treasuries is on Bernanke's testimony," said Kevin Giddis, head of fixed-income sales, trading and research at the brokerage Morgan Keegan Inc. in Memphis, Tennessee. "We are caught in a summertime range trade. The general feeling is that he will say things are getting better, but make no mention of when the economy will do a full turn."

Crude oil rose for a fourth day. The commodity advanced after a measure of economic indicators signaled that the worst of the recession is over. The Conference Board's gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.7 percent, more than forecast, and climbed three straight months for the first time since 2004.

Gold climbed to a five-week high as a weaker dollar and higher oil prices boosted the metal's appeal as an alternative investment and a hedge against inflation.

Gold futures for August delivery gained $11.30, or 1.2 percent, to $948.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division.Earlier, the price reached $955.40, the highest for a most-active contract since June 12.

"Gold is moving up today due to the lower U.S. dollar," said Lannie Cohen, the president of Capitol Commodity Services Inc. in Indianapolis.

President Barack Obama said on Monday that Wall Street banks had failed to show remorse for the "wild risks" that triggered a financial meltdown and helped to push the United States into recession.

Asia:

Japanese stocks advanced after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its estimate for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index on improving earnings and as raw materials prices rose.

Nikkei buoyed by U.S. stock gains, economic optimism

Deal to rescue CIT group relieves financial system worry.

Eyes on Japan election, but stock impact limited for now.

Resistance strong near 25-day moving average around 9,600.

Japanese cabinet members signed off on Prime Minister Taro Aso's plan to dissolve parliament's lower house on Tuesday for an election expected on Aug. 30.

Market analysts said investors were watching political developments, but that they were unlikely to be a strong trading factor for the day, although a slight jump could come after parliament is actually dissolved.

"Now we will have 40 days of a political vacuum, and overseas investors may not like this very much. They tend to be scared off by political instability," said Noritsugu Hirakawa, a strategist at Okasan Securities.

All members of the Bank of Japan's policy board agreed last month that economic conditions in Japan had stopped worsening, with the policy makers beginning to discuss the end of special liquidity measures, according to minutes of the board's June 15-16 meeting, released Tuesday.

Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Tuesday's session are Apple Inc., Coca-Cola Co., Starbucks Corp. and Yahoo Inc.

Hang Seng Index declines 0.6% to 19,381.01

The number of unemployed in Hong Kong has hit a near four-year high with worse expected as graduating students start to seek work. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.4 per cent between April and June, up from 5.3 per cent in the first quarter and the highest level since November 2005, the Census and Statistics Department said.

About 203,000 people were out of work in the second quarter while the number of those employed fell by 8,700 to 3.51 million, the department said.

"Given the current economic situation and the entry of fresh graduates and school leavers into the labour market in the coming months, the unemployment rate is expected to face upward pressure in the near term," Labour and Welfare Secretary Matthew Cheung Kin-chung said.

New home prices in 36 medium- and large-sized Chinese cities rose 6.3 percent in June from a year earlier as bank lending tripled in the first half.

The average price of new homes rose to 6,554 yuan (US$959) per square meter, the National Development and Reform Commission said on its Web site Monday.

New home prices in June rose 1.1 percent from May, China's top economic planning agency said.

The increase in new bank loans to 7.37 trillion yuan in the first half helped spur demand for property and boosted prices, said Bohai Securities Co.

analyst Zhou Hu. Housing prices in 70 major Chinese cities rose in June for the first time in seven months, the government said July 10.

"China's property market is recovering and prices should continue to rise in the third quarter," said Zhou, who recommends buying shares of China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co., the country's biggest developers by market value.

Nationwide property sales in June rose 32 percent by floor space and 53 percent by value from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said July 10. Investments in property development in the first half increased 9.9 percent, the agency said.

Vanke, China's biggest developer by market value, said July 4 that its first-half property sales rose 28 percent from a year earlier to 30.8 billion yuan. Poly Real Estate said its first- half sales rose 168 percent to 21.1 billion yuan.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission Sunday ordered lenders to raise reserves against non-performing loans. The regulator's Shanghai branch also told the city's lenders to obey mortgage rules that require down payments of no less than 40 percent of the price.
 

INVESTMENT VIEW
Sujana Towers Ltd

Sujana Towers Ltd has informed BSE that as per the authorization given by the Board of Directors of the Company at their meeting held on April 29, 2009, the Management Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company at their meeting held on July 07, 2009 have transacted the following business:

1. Approved the resolution to issue further equity shares and convertible warrants of the Company to promoters and others aggregating to Rs 44.00 Crores (including premium and after conversion of warrants) by way of Preferential Allotment.

2. Approved the resolution to take decision for passing the special resolution by the members of the Company by postal ballot for raising of equity share capital by way of issuing further equity shares/warrants of the Company to the promoters and others under preferential allotment.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381